This Has Never Happened Before Without A Massive Bubble Bursting

Tyler Durden's picture

Back in June we first observed that "America's Most Important Housing Market Signals A Red Alert For Housing Bubble Watchers" and showed the following chart:

 

As expected, since then things have only gotten worse, and as today's Case-Shiller report confirmed, the annual price increase in San Francisco has now put double-digit percent appreciation territory in the rear view mirror, and has slid back into the single digits, or 9% Y/Y to be precise (and only the second .

At this rate, all else equal, San Francisco home prices will slide into negative territory in another 5-6 months: only the fourth time they have done so in the past two decades.

In fact, as the chart demonstrates, there has never been a time when the all important leading indicator that is the San Fran housing market (see here for the reasons why) has posted such a steep slowdown in annual price increases without a bubble of some sort, be it the dot com, the first housing or the European sovereign debt bubble, having burst.

So: will this time finally be different?

Source: Case Shiller

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himaroid's picture

san fran bending over.

bottoms up.

RUN!

cifo's picture

Sorry, I found the difference :)

observer007's picture

#putin

breaking

 

press: Putin cancer - pankreas

Latest: (last reports in german only)

http://tersee.com/#!q=putin&t=text

Save_America1st's picture

I know what's not in a bubble but will eventually go to the moon when everything else is getting slaughtered...and that's the mining sector stocks.  While this market bubbles over with free money and fairy dust, the miners have been getting slaughtered right along with paper silver and gold, etc.

Screw the rest of the market...that's for the suckers and the rest of the sheep-tards.  Meanwhile, the big-timers who are dumping their shares of garbage to the muppets are scooping up tonnes of gold and silver as well as primo mining stocks because they know they're going to make a killing in them when precious metals explode higher very soon.

The mining sector will most likely become the play of a lifetime when this low cycle begins to turn upwards.  But it's not easy to know which miners to invest in.  I struggle finding reliable info on these mining companies and I don't know what factors are going on behind the scenes that might make them a star or the next company to go bankrupt.  I have several right now who are so damn bad I can't eevn sell them, so I'm just going to hold on and see if any of them recover once things get hot again. 

Many are mere shells of what they claim to be and/or are barely hanging on for life due to this ugly downturn against them the last few years. 

But this what will make them explode once things turn around...they've never been lower than this before and so they will go to record highs in the near future.

Eric Sprott has a gold miners ETF (NYSE: ZAXSGDM) which has basically done the homework for us.  http://www.sprottetfs.com/

http://www.sprottetfs.com/the-index.php 

The index holds 25 strong mining companies, so you can either buy shares of the ETF or research the individual companies from the list here:  http://www.sprottetfs.com/holdings.php

Then buy them individually if you like them...always do your own due diligence of course...but if Sprott has already vetted these miners and believes they're good enough to be in his index then it seems he's done most of the DD for us.

We have to make the same plays as the big-timers do with their insider information...and they're quietly and secretly getting into cash, phyzz PM's, and the good mining stocks.  We need to do the same thing, and we'll be rewarded for it very well in the long run. 

Pool Shark's picture

 

 

Actually, miners have gotten slaughtered far worse than gold and silver.

I remember 5 or 6 years ago, when a Gold/XAU ratio of 7.0 was considered high.

Today it stands at 16.19...

Even this chart is out of date:

http://www.kitco.com/ind/schwensen/images/dec162008_1.jpg

Here's a more recent chart, but it doesn't even begin to show the magnitude of the change over the last 6 years, given its 30-year average:

http://goldsilverworldscom.c.presscdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/gold_price_to_gold_miners_XAU_ratio_May_2014.gif

new game's picture

i would be more worried about getting your fiat when you make your killing.

some time into future-urgent notice all brokers and account holders, the ussra government has corzined the accounts to keep your country solvent,ha...

FL_Conservative's picture

Clearly it means that the SP 500 needs to rally another 500 points.  Someone tell the dwarf to get on it.

Bay of Pigs's picture

@Pool Shark

Its even worse than that. From 2001-2008 the Gold/XAU stayed well with the 3 or 4 to 6 range, with 6 being high.

That index is totally FUBAR now.  

Mr.Peak_Crackers's picture

Moar illsion served fresh st the XAU Fubar dinner :-)   Top left silver fox hope your well 

jvetter713's picture

Why in the world would you be in Mining Stocks?  I just don't get it.  Don't think for a second Govermnements won't steal mining companies anytime they want and render share price zero.

balolalo's picture

THE BUMPY PLATEAU !!!!

Bumpy road, who knows how long we have until the cliff/steep decline................

 

MrSteve's picture

History favors the miners who still have to dig the stuff up and refine it. Governments like nationalizing quick 'n easy money, like gold coins in a bank vault or your retirement account. You might get long-dated zero coupon bonds in exchange or a fiat currency; soon to be devalued. Poland and Venezuela are two post-1990 examples of where you didn't want to be.

So owning miners looks smart as the government will need someone to pull the specie out of the ground before they can misapply it, yet again.

oudinot's picture

In mining penny stocks which can be extremely rewarding if things turn out I would advise you to bet with the jockey rahter than the horse.

Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Based on a rumor from the NY Post.  That paper reads like a Zio Tabloid.

But IF true, his odds are not good:  8%.  How is is that guys like Chavez or Steve Jobs die of cancer?  So young...  Yet old sick fucks like Brzesinski and Kissinger are still here at age "100"

Almost Solvent's picture

Pancreatic is one of the worst because it spreads all over your insides like spiderwebs.

 

 

 

 

fockewulf190's picture

http://pagesix.com/2014/10/24/cancer-rumors-swirl-around-putin/?_ga=1.20...

There is an explanation for Vladimir Putin’s hurry to invade Ukraine — it is rumored he has cancer.

News outlets from Belarus to Poland have reported for months that the Russian strongman has cancer of the spinal cord. But my sources say it’s pancreatic cancer, one of the most lethal forms of the disease.

Putin is allegedly being treated by an elderly doctor from the old East Germany whom Putin met decades ago while serving in Dresden for the KGB. The doctor has been trying various treatments including steroid shots, which would explain Putin’s puffy appearance.

The physician, who is 84 years old, quit recently, confiding that he hated coming to Russia and was always mistreated by Putin’s security detail.

....

Squid Viscous's picture

breaking news from "Headless Body in Topless Bar" jew rag? LOL...

zerozulu's picture

criminals who keep their brain on high speed creating new troubles for others all the time live longer.

Kassandra's picture

Putin does look thinner. He's either working out or..something.

max2205's picture

Fucking every thing that walks before the end

Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

san fran bending over.

As a straight man, you would be dumb to do than in San Fran!

OW My Balls's picture

 "This Has Never Happened Before Without A Massive Bubble Bursting"

 

Oh wait   I thought this was an article about Reggie & Obola

 

MEH  Back to the Kim Kardashian thread

Redneck Hippy's picture

The difference is this time it is the Chinese bubble bursting that's tanking the SF market.

OW My Balls's picture

When a butterfly flaps its wings

Woodrox's picture

the first chart is older, the second ahs more data

 

Woodrox's picture

the first chart is older, the second ahs more data

 

Syrin's picture

We get a new "this hasn't ever happened" before story once a week now.  Not saying something god awful isn't coming, but clearly they've gotten better at delaying the inevitable.

tenpanhandle's picture

The article doesn't stop at this never happened before.  It states this never happened before without a bubble collapse of some sort.  The bubble has not been named yet as it usually isn't known or defined untill after the fact.  At this point I will offer my opinion on what the bubble may prove to be... a bubble of bubbles.  Our whole so called economy now consists of a bubble machine cranking out bubble after bubble with the intent and hope of creating a new bubble before the previous one pops, thus keeping a bubble floating in the air at any given time. 

LibertyBear's picture

What do they call that dip right before the 1st Housing Bubble? It dipped and then to new high.

 

Also, looking at the timeline and the 1st Housing Bubble, it took about a year to get from where we are to the red line.

 

So this isn't something close. Unless it is.

12ToothAssassin's picture

Next on ZH: Top 14 craziest pictures you wont believe about how this never happened before!

SAT 800's picture

It IS possible to have too many charts. In fact it's easy to have too many charts. This is WAY too many charts.

Dr. Richard Head's picture

Yellen has this contained.  No worries.

Bay of Pigs's picture

Mel Watt is on it too.

Move along, all is well....

Mohan's picture

No big deal. At this rate, TSLA rise will compensate for any loss in real estate prices.

LawsofPhysics's picture

Never more than now have the markets been so irrelevant.  Go ahead, put up that plot of equities, the U.S. debt ceiling, the U.S. debt, and the price of gold in dollars.  Go ahead I triple dog dare you, we have never been this "uncoupled" before.

Syrin's picture

It barely even qualifies as a market anymore it's so controlled.

LawsofPhysics's picture

Yep, watch the trade routes...

Kirk2NCC1701's picture

What, bungee-cord currency not good enough for you as a yardstick?  You want a 'real' yardstick?

What, are you some kinda Wise guy, a trouble maker, trying to spook the customers from OUR Casino?  You know what we do with your kind, if they get to noisy or troublesome?

Seriously though... I've made similar comments in the past, and have asked Tyler or some Pro-Gold ZH writer to do this kind of chart for homes, commodities and wages priced in Dollars and in Gold for comparison on the same chart.  Do not recall seeing this anywhere.  It's a simple Excel exercise, if you have the data.

Smiley's picture

It is not a market; it is a racket.

Jack Burton's picture

The Fed will wade into this with all guns blazing! Money printers in each hand the bitch from Israel will print here friends into a new bubble.

Duffy Duck's picture

What's funny - in a sense, isn't this the "liberal" version of tricke down economics?  Let's be honest - Ron Paul et al might be right in the long run, I'd bet they are, but they've been seen to be crying wolf.  Schiff et al too, of course.

 

I mean - aren't you amazed at how much they can print, and how much they can basically openly manipulate rates, and metals, and currency, and oil...  and how much they can give away to bail out euro banks - and how little "inflation" there will be so long as you keep most of the fresh new cash out of the hands of the poors?

 

and it helps to have an endless stream of H1B and other illegal aliens, just to make sure you always have lots and lots of people out of work...

 

But "the economy,"  Krugman says, requires more debt!

 

What can you do with these people but laugh and hope they aren't getting too rich in the short term?

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oDJ-gvhVBmw

i_call_you_my_base's picture

It is exactly the liberal version of trickle down economics. I've said that many times. And it has the same impact, the wealthy get wealthier. But no liberal seems to notice, even though they decry wealth inequality daily. The entire philosophy of low interest rates to spur investment is supply side, it cannot be denied.

TeethVillage88s's picture

Largely I missed out on the Financial Cycle in trying to put together a timeline of some sort. Can't really trace when European Bankers came to the USA either, maybe after 1812. Or maybe in 1791, the government granted the First Bank of the United States a charter to operate as the U.S. central bank until 1811.[138]

- 1900s, when US started Depending on Outsourced Produce
- 1900s, when US started using military to suppress union movements, strikes, and management problems in foreign countries producing agricultural goods, first signs of Empire
- 1960, when US started Outsourcing Auto Factories
- 1968, when Costs of Vietnam War became Obvious Problem
- 1971, Nixon Shock, US Refuses to convert USD to Gold for Foreign Holders of USD
- 1972, BCCI Bank created
- 1974, CIA Slapped with Investigations of Practices, they decide to Outsource & Subcontract
- 1978, Soviet-Afghanistan War Starts
- 1979, the Top of US Manufacturing
- 1979, when US Median Wages got Stuck or leveled out
- 1980, Presidential Campaign, Debt, Economy, Inflation, Iran
- 1981, the Top of US Money Velocity
- 1982, Ronald Reagan Maxes out DoD Budget
- 1982, CIA Begins using BCCI Bank
- 1986, DoD Contractors Soar with profits & plans
- 1990, Start of US Gulf War with Iraq, US & UK will Bomb Iraq for the next 13 years till US-Iraq War II
- 1994, NAFTA Treaty,
- 1995, Sub-prime mortgages started
- 1995, Community Reinvestment Act, the Clinton Admin urged flexibility,
- 1995, HUD advocated greater involvement of state and local organizations
- 1996, Start of a Period of Accounting Fraud in USA which continues today
- 1997, M2 Money Velocity Top
- 1998, Brooksly Born Rejected on her concerns on OTC Derivatives
- 1998, Derivatives expanded and were not regulated
- 1998, Clinton's Kosovo War
- 1998, Citicorp & Travelers Insurance Merger
- 1999, Gramm–Leach–Bliley Act (GLBA), End of Glass Steagal Act
- 2001, US-Afghan War
- 2003, US-Iraq War
- 2005, CAFTA-DR Related Progression
- 2005, US Mortgage Top of Bubble
- 2008, US-Global Financial Crisis
- 2012, Existing Home Sales finally return to USA
- 2013, IRS Budget exceeds $100 Billion since it now pays out cash to households as Credits
- 2013, Corporate Income Taxes Receipts still fail to return to 2006, 2007, or 2008 pre-crash Level of over $300 Billion

The power of Monopoly is very strong and corrupting.

Rules will be broken, Crimes Committed, Fraud Created... Lobbying will under cut the laws of the land and the rules of Commerce. It is best to recognize that humans will always petition for changes while committing fraud and larceny.

Why don't the people get it. Why don't voters get it when only 10% of the Population is making economic gains.

Squid Viscous's picture

"Frisco" already shot it's load after 4 pokes in the ass?

Bangin7GramRocks's picture

WHATEVS! As long as real estate can be used to launder money, there will be a line of thieves and scoundrels looking to scrub and or hide their ill gotten gains. The rich keep getting richer, so the rich ass places to live will keep getting more absurd. DEAL WITH THAT JACK.

Fuku Ben's picture

It's a simple formula really. The organized criminals that allow this to happen know they if they don't get what they want out of the deal they can just steal it right back for whatever reason whenever they want it. So there's minimal risk in allowing the illegal activity. Especially when you have all the thugs, guns and tanks they need to enforce whatever fake reason they decide to use to steal it back

http://marketsanity.com/cops-deploy-armored-vehicle-collect-fines-75-yea...

Professorlocknload's picture

Up only 9%? The humanity!