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This Has Never Happened Before Without A Massive Bubble Bursting
Back in June we first observed that "America's Most Important Housing Market Signals A Red Alert For Housing Bubble Watchers" and showed the following chart:
As expected, since then things have only gotten worse, and as today's Case-Shiller report confirmed, the annual price increase in San Francisco has now put double-digit percent appreciation territory in the rear view mirror, and has slid back into the single digits, or 9% Y/Y to be precise (and only the second .
At this rate, all else equal, San Francisco home prices will slide into negative territory in another 5-6 months: only the fourth time they have done so in the past two decades.
In fact, as the chart demonstrates, there has never been a time when the all important leading indicator that is the San Fran housing market (see here for the reasons why) has posted such a steep slowdown in annual price increases without a bubble of some sort, be it the dot com, the first housing or the European sovereign debt bubble, having burst.
So: will this time finally be different?
Source: Case Shiller
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san fran bending over.
bottoms up.
RUN!
2 identical charts?
Sorry, I found the difference :)
#putin
breaking
press: Putin cancer - pankreas
Latest: (last reports in german only)
http://tersee.com/#!q=putin&t=text
I know what's not in a bubble but will eventually go to the moon when everything else is getting slaughtered...and that's the mining sector stocks. While this market bubbles over with free money and fairy dust, the miners have been getting slaughtered right along with paper silver and gold, etc.
Screw the rest of the market...that's for the suckers and the rest of the sheep-tards. Meanwhile, the big-timers who are dumping their shares of garbage to the muppets are scooping up tonnes of gold and silver as well as primo mining stocks because they know they're going to make a killing in them when precious metals explode higher very soon.
The mining sector will most likely become the play of a lifetime when this low cycle begins to turn upwards. But it's not easy to know which miners to invest in. I struggle finding reliable info on these mining companies and I don't know what factors are going on behind the scenes that might make them a star or the next company to go bankrupt. I have several right now who are so damn bad I can't eevn sell them, so I'm just going to hold on and see if any of them recover once things get hot again.
Many are mere shells of what they claim to be and/or are barely hanging on for life due to this ugly downturn against them the last few years.
But this what will make them explode once things turn around...they've never been lower than this before and so they will go to record highs in the near future.
Eric Sprott has a gold miners ETF (NYSE: ZAXSGDM) which has basically done the homework for us. http://www.sprottetfs.com/
http://www.sprottetfs.com/the-index.php
The index holds 25 strong mining companies, so you can either buy shares of the ETF or research the individual companies from the list here: http://www.sprottetfs.com/holdings.php
Then buy them individually if you like them...always do your own due diligence of course...but if Sprott has already vetted these miners and believes they're good enough to be in his index then it seems he's done most of the DD for us.
We have to make the same plays as the big-timers do with their insider information...and they're quietly and secretly getting into cash, phyzz PM's, and the good mining stocks. We need to do the same thing, and we'll be rewarded for it very well in the long run.
Actually, miners have gotten slaughtered far worse than gold and silver.
I remember 5 or 6 years ago, when a Gold/XAU ratio of 7.0 was considered high.
Today it stands at 16.19...
Even this chart is out of date:
http://www.kitco.com/ind/schwensen/images/dec162008_1.jpg
Here's a more recent chart, but it doesn't even begin to show the magnitude of the change over the last 6 years, given its 30-year average:
http://goldsilverworldscom.c.presscdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/gold_price_to_gold_miners_XAU_ratio_May_2014.gif
i would be more worried about getting your fiat when you make your killing.
some time into future-urgent notice all brokers and account holders, the ussra government has corzined the accounts to keep your country solvent,ha...
Clearly it means that the SP 500 needs to rally another 500 points. Someone tell the dwarf to get on it.
@Pool Shark
Its even worse than that. From 2001-2008 the Gold/XAU stayed well with the 3 or 4 to 6 range, with 6 being high.
That index is totally FUBAR now.
Moar illsion served fresh st the XAU Fubar dinner :-) Top left silver fox hope your well
Why in the world would you be in Mining Stocks? I just don't get it. Don't think for a second Govermnements won't steal mining companies anytime they want and render share price zero.
THE BUMPY PLATEAU !!!!
Bumpy road, who knows how long we have until the cliff/steep decline................
History favors the miners who still have to dig the stuff up and refine it. Governments like nationalizing quick 'n easy money, like gold coins in a bank vault or your retirement account. You might get long-dated zero coupon bonds in exchange or a fiat currency; soon to be devalued. Poland and Venezuela are two post-1990 examples of where you didn't want to be.
So owning miners looks smart as the government will need someone to pull the specie out of the ground before they can misapply it, yet again.
In mining penny stocks which can be extremely rewarding if things turn out I would advise you to bet with the jockey rahter than the horse.
Based on a rumor from the NY Post. That paper reads like a Zio Tabloid.
But IF true, his odds are not good: 8%. How is is that guys like Chavez or Steve Jobs die of cancer? So young... Yet old sick fucks like Brzesinski and Kissinger are still here at age "100"
Pancreatic is one of the worst because it spreads all over your insides like spiderwebs.
http://pagesix.com/2014/10/24/cancer-rumors-swirl-around-putin/?_ga=1.20...
There is an explanation for Vladimir Putin’s hurry to invade Ukraine — it is rumored he has cancer.
News outlets from Belarus to Poland have reported for months that the Russian strongman has cancer of the spinal cord. But my sources say it’s pancreatic cancer, one of the most lethal forms of the disease.
Putin is allegedly being treated by an elderly doctor from the old East Germany whom Putin met decades ago while serving in Dresden for the KGB. The doctor has been trying various treatments including steroid shots, which would explain Putin’s puffy appearance.
The physician, who is 84 years old, quit recently, confiding that he hated coming to Russia and was always mistreated by Putin’s security detail.
....
4 months tops
breaking news from "Headless Body in Topless Bar" jew rag? LOL...
criminals who keep their brain on high speed creating new troubles for others all the time live longer.
Putin does look thinner. He's either working out or..something.
Fucking every thing that walks before the end
san fran bending over.
As a straight man, you would be dumb to do than in San Fran!
"This Has Never Happened Before Without A Massive Bubble Bursting"
Oh wait I thought this was an article about Reggie & Obola
MEH Back to the Kim Kardashian thread
The difference is this time it is the Chinese bubble bursting that's tanking the SF market.
When a butterfly flaps its wings
the first chart is older, the second ahs more data
the first chart is older, the second ahs more data
We get a new "this hasn't ever happened" before story once a week now. Not saying something god awful isn't coming, but clearly they've gotten better at delaying the inevitable.
The article doesn't stop at this never happened before. It states this never happened before without a bubble collapse of some sort. The bubble has not been named yet as it usually isn't known or defined untill after the fact. At this point I will offer my opinion on what the bubble may prove to be... a bubble of bubbles. Our whole so called economy now consists of a bubble machine cranking out bubble after bubble with the intent and hope of creating a new bubble before the previous one pops, thus keeping a bubble floating in the air at any given time.
What do they call that dip right before the 1st Housing Bubble? It dipped and then to new high.
Also, looking at the timeline and the 1st Housing Bubble, it took about a year to get from where we are to the red line.
So this isn't something close. Unless it is.
Next on ZH: Top 14 craziest pictures you wont believe about how this never happened before!
Oh Thtop it...
It IS possible to have too many charts. In fact it's easy to have too many charts. This is WAY too many charts.
Yellen has this contained. No worries.
Mel Watt is on it too.
Move along, all is well....
No big deal. At this rate, TSLA rise will compensate for any loss in real estate prices.
Never more than now have the markets been so irrelevant. Go ahead, put up that plot of equities, the U.S. debt ceiling, the U.S. debt, and the price of gold in dollars. Go ahead I triple dog dare you, we have never been this "uncoupled" before.
It barely even qualifies as a market anymore it's so controlled.
Yep, watch the trade routes...
What, bungee-cord currency not good enough for you as a yardstick? You want a 'real' yardstick?
What, are you some kinda Wise guy, a trouble maker, trying to spook the customers from OUR Casino? You know what we do with your kind, if they get to noisy or troublesome?
Seriously though... I've made similar comments in the past, and have asked Tyler or some Pro-Gold ZH writer to do this kind of chart for homes, commodities and wages priced in Dollars and in Gold for comparison on the same chart. Do not recall seeing this anywhere. It's a simple Excel exercise, if you have the data.
It is not a market; it is a racket.
The Fed will wade into this with all guns blazing! Money printers in each hand the bitch from Israel will print here friends into a new bubble.
What's funny - in a sense, isn't this the "liberal" version of tricke down economics? Let's be honest - Ron Paul et al might be right in the long run, I'd bet they are, but they've been seen to be crying wolf. Schiff et al too, of course.
I mean - aren't you amazed at how much they can print, and how much they can basically openly manipulate rates, and metals, and currency, and oil... and how much they can give away to bail out euro banks - and how little "inflation" there will be so long as you keep most of the fresh new cash out of the hands of the poors?
and it helps to have an endless stream of H1B and other illegal aliens, just to make sure you always have lots and lots of people out of work...
But "the economy," Krugman says, requires more debt!
What can you do with these people but laugh and hope they aren't getting too rich in the short term?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oDJ-gvhVBmw
It is exactly the liberal version of trickle down economics. I've said that many times. And it has the same impact, the wealthy get wealthier. But no liberal seems to notice, even though they decry wealth inequality daily. The entire philosophy of low interest rates to spur investment is supply side, it cannot be denied.
Largely I missed out on the Financial Cycle in trying to put together a timeline of some sort. Can't really trace when European Bankers came to the USA either, maybe after 1812. Or maybe in 1791, the government granted the First Bank of the United States a charter to operate as the U.S. central bank until 1811.[138]
- 1900s, when US started Depending on Outsourced Produce
- 1900s, when US started using military to suppress union movements, strikes, and management problems in foreign countries producing agricultural goods, first signs of Empire
- 1960, when US started Outsourcing Auto Factories
- 1968, when Costs of Vietnam War became Obvious Problem
- 1971, Nixon Shock, US Refuses to convert USD to Gold for Foreign Holders of USD
- 1972, BCCI Bank created
- 1974, CIA Slapped with Investigations of Practices, they decide to Outsource & Subcontract
- 1978, Soviet-Afghanistan War Starts
- 1979, the Top of US Manufacturing
- 1979, when US Median Wages got Stuck or leveled out
- 1980, Presidential Campaign, Debt, Economy, Inflation, Iran
- 1981, the Top of US Money Velocity
- 1982, Ronald Reagan Maxes out DoD Budget
- 1982, CIA Begins using BCCI Bank
- 1986, DoD Contractors Soar with profits & plans
- 1990, Start of US Gulf War with Iraq, US & UK will Bomb Iraq for the next 13 years till US-Iraq War II
- 1994, NAFTA Treaty,
- 1995, Sub-prime mortgages started
- 1995, Community Reinvestment Act, the Clinton Admin urged flexibility,
- 1995, HUD advocated greater involvement of state and local organizations
- 1996, Start of a Period of Accounting Fraud in USA which continues today
- 1997, M2 Money Velocity Top
- 1998, Brooksly Born Rejected on her concerns on OTC Derivatives
- 1998, Derivatives expanded and were not regulated
- 1998, Clinton's Kosovo War
- 1998, Citicorp & Travelers Insurance Merger
- 1999, Gramm–Leach–Bliley Act (GLBA), End of Glass Steagal Act
- 2001, US-Afghan War
- 2003, US-Iraq War
- 2005, CAFTA-DR Related Progression
- 2005, US Mortgage Top of Bubble
- 2008, US-Global Financial Crisis
- 2012, Existing Home Sales finally return to USA
- 2013, IRS Budget exceeds $100 Billion since it now pays out cash to households as Credits
- 2013, Corporate Income Taxes Receipts still fail to return to 2006, 2007, or 2008 pre-crash Level of over $300 Billion
The power of Monopoly is very strong and corrupting.
Rules will be broken, Crimes Committed, Fraud Created... Lobbying will under cut the laws of the land and the rules of Commerce. It is best to recognize that humans will always petition for changes while committing fraud and larceny.
Why don't the people get it. Why don't voters get it when only 10% of the Population is making economic gains.
"Frisco" already shot it's load after 4 pokes in the ass?
WHATEVS! As long as real estate can be used to launder money, there will be a line of thieves and scoundrels looking to scrub and or hide their ill gotten gains. The rich keep getting richer, so the rich ass places to live will keep getting more absurd. DEAL WITH THAT JACK.
It's a simple formula really. The organized criminals that allow this to happen know they if they don't get what they want out of the deal they can just steal it right back for whatever reason whenever they want it. So there's minimal risk in allowing the illegal activity. Especially when you have all the thugs, guns and tanks they need to enforce whatever fake reason they decide to use to steal it back
http://marketsanity.com/cops-deploy-armored-vehicle-collect-fines-75-yea...
Up only 9%? The humanity!
? = the big one
It's a combination of the first three.
the Euro crisis makes no sense. I think that is wishful thinking for the illustrator of the chart.
Euro "Crisis" = papering over structural weakness.
If you can paper over it, it isn't a crisis... yet.
Bonds are the mother of all bubbles. Watch the bond markets go down like the Hindenburg. Probably instigated by some kind of major recessionary event in Asia.
agree
but what DID happen at that dip was expiration of the home buying tax credit
iirc, originally expired june 30th 2010 ... but i think they extended it a few months (i think you still had to sign contract before june 30th, but gave a few extra months to close)
Meanwhile, I thought that the question mark on the current plunge should be labeled "China's capital controls." I'm guessing that the chart looks similar for Portland, Seattle and Vancouver.
When all those ISIS guys get here, they're gonna have to live somewhere.
I think it should be called the NeoKeynesian Mountain Climbing Expedition
Reminds me for some reason of the old Monty Python mountain climber sketch {thinking peak rather than bubble}... it rises very sharply upward until you get to the very top - then it drops off quite suddenly...
Monty Python - Mountain Climbing Expedition - YouTubeQEforevah shall be announced tommorrow to save the housing market, enable MOAR stock buybacks, lever up some moar...., Same QE time, same QE channel.
"Coming up on CNBC: The hopium train - Why now might be a better time than ever to go all-in on the US of A"
You've got to be FUCKING KIDDING ME!?!?!
Stock prices have never been lower!
There's never been a better time to become a bag holder than right now!
The current political movements are created by people who are mentally like those who ‘kill’ themselves in supermarkets in fights for the new iPhone after waiting two days in a queue outside the shop. Political movements are created for idiots. The same supermarket mentality is routed to the so called ‘pro-democracy’, ‘bottom-up’ movements. In the Internet age so-called ‘civil liberties’ and ‘social ideas’ are like products in the supermarket, driving idiotic people in one direction or another like chickens on a farm. Who controls this? Just follow the money a.
Yup. Definitely different this time ;)
Shale bubble replaces that question mark.
dollar bubble replaces that question mark.
Given the fact that the dollar can also be called the petro-dollar a shale bubble would look awfully like a currency bubble.
lol, gona be a cold winter in North Dakota for all those florida strippers, and recent "hopium" arrivals
Florida striped bass in the Dakotas is always a luxury-price item!
Like that moment from the back of a roller coaster when the front cars go over the top, but the coaster's fall is restrained by the weight of back cars. Then in a burst, the track apex is passed and the coaster begins to accelerate with the front cars yanking the rear cars and riders into a wild acceleration, and tantalizing and exhilarating ride.
Won't be such a fun ride for the back-car sheeple on this financial market roller coaster.
An American, not US subject.
"Can I get off the ride at any time, or do I have to ride it to its terminus?!"
"Those who arrive, survive."
Bring an ax just in case.
" For this year, crude reached $107.26 on June 20, and fell to $80.52 on Oct. 22 -- the lowest since late June 2012."
This is off topic. But I can't find another home for it. This looks like manipulation at the highest levels. This may be an anti bubble, that could break higher in a heart beat. Geopolitical chaos in the Middle East, and China buying oil by the tanker full to get cheap while it lasts. I don't know storage capacity in China, but they will seek to buy all they can and still hold the price down.
"" For this year, crude reached $107.26 on June 20, and fell to $80.52 on Oct. 22 -- the lowest since late June 2012.""
That sentence is much clarified if one changes "fell" to "pushed."
An American,not US subject.
Of course it's manipulation..!! Another round of US intervention in Syria/Iraq bought and paid for by the Saudis...!!
It's all about the $$'s, yo.....
Jack they can fill all the ghost towns with crude, no flies on those chinks.
What does the market know about the FED announcement tomorrow?
premature fed-jaculation?
Doesn't matter look at R2K today all is clear to miss price SF real estate some more. Must save the 10% increase per year. Must save the .001%.
Don't get my hopes up, PLUHEASE!
I got to know that everyone is losing everything in San Francisco to be happy....
Signed
an artist.
but its different this time...we are going to rolloff thru -40%
OMG OMG! THIS IS THE GLOBAL EBOLA PANDEMIC!!! RUN FOR YOUR BUNKERZ!!!
long HaZeMat Suite!
There's a first time for everything!
Tomorrow the Fed will tell us that growth is fine, but has taken a downtick and will be monitored closely. In the meantime, rates stay at zero for foreseeable future and the market gets its monthly hit of heroin.
Interesting chart, though. If keeping the market up wasn't the Fed's only mandate, I'd be concerned.
Periodically, ZH posts an opinion letter from Grant Williams, editor of Maulden Economics. His letter is called "Things That make You Go Hmmm..." (TTMYGH). In his latest edition, Williams reports on a conversation with Kyle Bass. Bass was the guy who foresaw the derivative and real estate crash in 2008, who tried but failed to alert Morgan Stanley and Bear Stearns to it, and -most importantly- who made a ton of money betting on it.
Bass gives a scenario for the dollar and U.S. stock and bondmarkets to soar as the rest of the world -China, Japan, and the emerging markets of Asia- crashes. Here is the link for those inerested:
http://www.mauldineconomics.com/ttmygh/this-little-piggy-bent-the-market#A-Scary-Story-for-Emerging-Markets
If Bass is as prescient forecasting this scenario as he was in 2008, then "This Time Will Be Different" at least for a good while longer, as the "smart and fast and hot money" abandon these markets for the U.S.Dollar and U.S. assets.
Hmmmm is right. As China, Russia and the rest of the BRICS and Asia shift away trading in USD, this analysis seems somewhat suspect. Those countries are moving away from the dollar so why would money be pouring into US markets and the USD? I don't see the logic here.
I like Williams and Bass is okay, but Mauldin? I saw him speak once and that was more than enough for me.
Edit: Mauldin refers to the US as a "safe haven" in his article. Laughable. Simple question, why does he completely ignore what is actually taking place overseas while also ignoring the precarious state of the USD, massive debt and housing market right here in the US?
If I can summarize effectively...
The FED turns off QE at the end of this week, as BOJ and ECB boost QE. The economic sanctions are hurting European, as well as Russian economies, deepening recessions in those countries, which will reduce demand from emerging countries. Trade between China and Japan are going into the tank for similar reasons. The U.S. Dollar appreciates because it is the safest haven from these adversities. Dollar appreciation encourages capital flows into the Dollar and dollarized assets (stocks more so than bonds). Capital outflows discourage investment as deflate asset prices in these other countries and weaken their currencies. Their economic activity will slow further and go deeper into recession. More money flows into the dollar and dollarized assets.
This is not all good for the American economy though. Shale oil and gas production and development will fall off in the U.S. as international energy will cost less in dollar terms. American balance of trade will deteriorate. But capital flows will give the U.S. balance of payments surpluses. This phenomenon occurred during the Reagan/Bush'41 era.
And to Charles' point, there will be an even greater surplus of mobile capital in the possession of stateless persons, who will exploit the appreciated dollar to take ownership of even more resources and productive capacity in these countries, during this period of distress.
I suppose that's possible but I still do not understand why people are referring to the US as a "safe haven". China, Russia, and the rest of the BRICS and Asia are not on board with that analysis, and have made moves away from the USD. Not in theory, but in fact they have done so, and plan to continue that.
And again, housing is clearly rolling over in the US. Why are those guys ignoring that?
Bingo .. why cause just like prior to wwII the emgering markets were the americas and the rest of the nato crew .. Now the new empire with its ensalvment will hammer in ..
Here is something you might find interesting - just for scale. In 1995 or 1996, I was listening to a Michael Reagan show broadcast wherein he was speaking of our (then) 'astronomical' $debt - approaching $5T... And here we are, almost (20) years later... Not that the situation - domestic or geopolitically are the same today as they were then, but it simply underscores how long a situation can remain 'irrational'. However, as time marches forward without resolution, events have a way of 'speeding up' towards a highly unfavorable outcome.
Japan and Europe are much further along and haven't blown up yet. Maybe when one of them does, we all go at the same time.
That's what I've been thinking too. It will be a giant shit sandwich, and everyone will have to take a bite.
I sometimes listen to a radio channel that hosts the Rush Limbaugh show. One of the ads for the RLS has Rush stating something like, “I've been doing this show for 30 years and nothing has changed”
How about French President Charles de Gaulle warning the world about US money printing in the 1960s, how many people died waiting something to happen ?
oops.
Massive printing by the Federal Reserve.
I keep reading this BULLSHIT and the market continues higher!
@ms8172
True. When feeling stress i take a look at my kids and worry about how things will look for their kids. So it's war or the long haul and you are far better placed i bet than 95% of the 99%.
You should jump into stocks right now. Nothing is more certain than a market at the top going higher and higher. It's a no brainer. This market is going to the moon. This balloon will never pop. All of economic history is dead wrong. Nothing to worry about.
If i never see another graph again it'll be too soon!
Blah blah blah, for years and years more doom and gloom and what happens? Nuttin
You think nothing has happened? 65 million out of work. 91 million on the government dole. Europe has a 50% unemployed youth rate. Paper money priced to borrow at exactly what it's worth-- zero, zilch. Enemies at the gates, which are wide open. The Constitution in shreds. Commies in the White House and Congress. Nothing has happened? The damage is inflicted one by one and individualized right now, but it's coming to you very soon. Perhaps you need to do some reading.
You sound like an insurance salesman.
Me thinks the needle is stuck in the groove here at Zero Hedge.
Meanwhile, in reality; the market is exploding higher, hasn't had a down-tick in weeks. Large indexes are going up multiple percent every day.
Tomorrow the FED will reassure the market that they will frantically print more money at the first sign of stock market weakness and we will accelerate vertically into the end of the year through all time highs like a hot knife through butter.
Bonuses all around.
Yes, this time will be different.
Different in that this bottom will surpass all previous bottoms - it's a government bond bubble (treasuries), a stock bubble (equities), and a currency crisis bubble (QE) all wrapped into one massive bubble-fuck.
The good news is something better can, and will be built after the house of cards gets blown to the wind. In America, the two-party system will collapse after people find themselves impoverished even further.
Give it another 9-10 months, at least. That coincides with the 7-year cycle: 2001.com, 2008 housing, and 2015 - the financial system itself.
+100 for "one massive bubble fuck"
And in the meantime SP up +21 on unbridled confidence in America's economy
I dunno what's worse, Cramer gushing about the best stocks to buy or everyone who reads ZH saying the world is gonna end, we just don't know when.
All nonsense and psychobabble.
Why do they always micro-interpret this data? The housing market, for those who have been paying attention, is in trouble, and there are significant demographic and sociological factors that make recovery a rough road at best. The fact that, within that larger market, certain areas are doing better or worse is interesting, but no more of an "indicator" than the larger market itself.
It gives the impression that Schiller was made aware of the danger to the housing market when this data was released, making one question where they've BEEN for the past 6 years.
Had the data been good, would they see that as a sign that there IS no housing bubble? Or that the market was healthy?
A single piece of data is meaningless without context. Investors have to stop mindlessly running and trading after each piece of statistical minutiae being released. Start looking at the big picture and make investment DECISIONS instead of reacting to each slight wind-shift.
The next crisis may be the so-called 'useless mouth' crisis.
It'll make all other crisi look like pikers.
I read all these "bearish" articles- "never happened before...and all the bla bla"
i am being squeezed on a daily basis....if the market tops at 2100 - i can handle it...further gains will be very problematic for me:
Its always the same guys here being bearish- Phoenix cap, Tim knight, Rogers, etc.
i do believe this market is a bubble- but bubbles tend to go irrational before they crash
"fortunate" for me - i am losing so far 5-10% but i must admit ZH has been very very wrong so far in its predictions -
Unfortunately i was also wrong so far and losing money while markets are skyrocketing is very difficult- frustrating and exhausting.
@we built this city...couldn't agree more about the neverending "the asteroid is about to hit, etc". Fortunately for me, about a year or so ago, I bought into some high yielding BDC, MLPs, etc. that are throwing off ~12 to 13% on average so now I don't give a shit which way stuff goes as I am watching the DRIPs add up. I do feel for you and another friend of mine who became a true ZH doomer and who is getting the hell squeezed out of him.
nodhannum- thanks for your concern mate...
I take all responsibilty - i dont blame Zh for my wrong investments so far....
Zh is a bearish site - provides great bearish information but is very bad in predictions
I do my investments based on analytics and experience- not on zh news- although when you are short it "helps" to read bearish news.
Ive been in these markets since 1992 and managed well all meltdowns and bull markets . I did quite well in the 2008 crisis selling stocks and buying into the lows. since 2012 my performance is quite bad(very similar to most hedge funds)- this is because the fed's policy distorted markets and correlations.
Although i feel this is a nightmare so far- i do believe this is a one time opportunity ... and one must have guts,depth, and time.
This is a long term investment .
In 2007-2008 crisis we saw similar actions - when markets dived 10% and then soared 10%.
i hope we are entering the same phase- I am a bit concerned from the plunging Vix-
I read all about QE in 2008 from BB paper from 2002?
What I didn't realise was: Even though the dollar is a pos, it's the best thing out there, apparently, and everyone sheltered in the USD, which is killing my strategy. I haven't bought shares since Oct. 2011 when I got my ass handed to me, shorting, when QE2 was announced.
Now I just buy long dated out of the money options hoping I'll hit the jackpot while putting bottom to my losses.
The only smart thing I've done since 2007 is having a reminbi denominated savings account where I put my money instead of stocks. The arbitrage has been great and my savings have grown by 21% with the appreciation of the yuan, plus I don't have to pay tax on arbitrage gains! The savings account pays 0.10% and I'll have to pay tax on that , but the rest is all mine. I hope the reminbi goes to parity with the USD.....I'll be sitting pretty! I might start savings in Rubles if I can find a Russian bank that is FDIC insured.
Soon I'll be buying long dated out of the money puts on FB, TWT, Alibaba.... those will drop like a box of rocks, it's a matter of timing.
I love the insights here at ZH, the comedy and the true sadness of our situation here in this country, anyway, if not the world.
But, I have to agree, I read this book before, it was called Crest of the Tidal Wave....that was in the 80s.
'95, read it in '97 and watched the market go up three more years.
[pointing at an emergency instruction manual on a plane] You know why they put oxygen masks on planes?
Narrator: So you can breathe.
Tyler Durden: Oxygen gets you high. In a catastrophic emergency, you're taking giant panicked breaths. Suddenly you become euphoric, docile. You accept your fate. It's all right here. Emergency water landing - 600 miles an hour. Blank faces, calm as Hindu cows........
Silver is at its "parity floor," where it meets approximately half its street value;
BTC is at its logical floor due to the previous and current (no pun intended) expenditure of electricity in joules;
American business creation is at its lowest since 1983.
This isn't a bubble, it's a massacre plus profit-taking. Buy shit like you were a Depression Baroness.*
You want to quibble on ethics? You take your earnings when you can. If the Middle Class is fleeced you're powerless to stop it but you can become obscenely wealthy!
*Yes, that means people too. Joseph Schlubb likes a paycheck. Remember that.
Wonder why the 2003 "slump" doesn't count in the above chart? 1/5 is still risky, but "never" is not accurate
A crash is coming?
It was a busy day at the shooting range. The 3 percent know what's up.
OT...maybe, MAYBE, there is a future.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BUSRZo1BE5o
the latest turn in this case shiller index is called the "asshead yellen bubble"
I trust you find this to your liking.
Corporate bonds.
For a long time much of the economic landscape has started to look like something out of "Alice And The Looking Glass" A bizarre and unrecognizable land, a land that is distorted and papered over by ream after ream of paper. This paper has been rolling off the printing presses of central banks all across the world in an attempt to mask reality.
Peter Schiff says, printing money is to the economy what taking drugs is to a drug addict. In the short term it makes the economy feel good, but in the long run it is much worse off. The article below delves how what was once the "long run" or "distant future" where this might end may be getting much closer.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/01/what-happens-after-momentum-ends_6.html
who the fuck cares about san francisco??