This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Stocks Now Most Overbought In A Year

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Just two words - "Volumeless" and "Overbought" - but when has that mattered...

Spot The Rally (using the lower pane only)

 

 

McClellan Oscillator at a notable extreme...

 

and the Relative Strength Indicator is once again signaling a trend change...

 

If you are a dip-buyer, HY has all the upside from here... or maybe, just maybe, the professionals were right to worry and hedge...

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Tue, 10/28/2014 - 16:31 | 5387281 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

When has that mattered?

   When there was no more QE?

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 16:32 | 5387293 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

Just warming the Muppet stew up for a sumptuos meal 

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 03:09 | 5388868 CASTBOUND
CASTBOUND's picture

my best friend's sister makes $80 /hour on the internet . She has been laid off for 7 months but last month her paycheck was $13987 just working on the internet for a few hours. visit site... www.Yelptrade.com

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 16:36 | 5387283 OW My Balls
OW My Balls's picture

Cue the 'Elliott Wave' RE-ARCHITECHTS in 5...4...3...2...

 

1 ~ 2 ~ 3 ~ 4 ~ 5   abcX abcX abcX   1 ~2 ~ OMFG P3!!! ~ QE4 ~ Whew!

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 16:50 | 5387342 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

Update: this was subwave W(ii) of minor Wave W(1) of major Wave 1 the HUGE P3 down move, went a bit farther than anticipated, sorry if you lost your ass...

 don't foget to renew by 10/31 to save on next year's newsletter!!

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 16:52 | 5387357 OW My Balls
OW My Balls's picture

+1    I kno right? :-)

 

PS ~ I saved you there b4 the 'sarc~blind' tear our wrists ZOMBIED your @ss

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 17:18 | 5387471 Jack Sheet
Jack Sheet's picture

RN Elliott died a pauper. Guess his wave was too long .

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 20:06 | 5388056 4 wheel drift
4 wheel drift's picture

lolololololol.....

have you tried .....  point & figure.....

 

 

XO

-lol

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 16:32 | 5387290 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

its a repeat of june/july as QE2 was ending.  by the second week of Aug, 2011, stocks were down 20%.

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 16:38 | 5387312 Bell's 2 hearted
Bell's 2 hearted's picture

greatly aided by the debt ceiling "crisis" ... resolved august 1st 2011

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 16:44 | 5387337 Bryan
Bryan's picture

You know, it's funny that we have not heard that phrase "debt ceiling" in a long time.  I guess it just doesn't matter any more when the answer to most money crises is to kick the can as far down the road (or at least until your term in office ends) as possible.

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 17:11 | 5387450 centerline
centerline's picture

Comes back around again right before elections in late 2015 I believe.  If there is a time for things to really start breaking down, late 2015 looks like it.

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 16:36 | 5387294 Fidel Sarcastro
Fidel Sarcastro's picture

Oscillators and RSI are meaningless to HFT.  Only Muppets use this garbage...and poor advice from Golden Slacks, of course. 

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 16:34 | 5387298 wswarrior
wswarrior's picture

At a loss for words.  The S&P is up 100 points since the 10/17 close, and that's after it rallied hard off the bottom.  This is not a market; it's a farce.  

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 16:40 | 5387322 Bell's 2 hearted
Bell's 2 hearted's picture

maybe ... but i want to see what the farce does in the teeth of a recession ... won't be long

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 17:31 | 5387490 Smooth Criminal
Smooth Criminal's picture

@wswarrior- "This is not a market; it's a farce."  +100.  Truer words were never spoken.  This market is one of the most manipulated, rigged, and blatantly corrupted entities on planet earth. Whenever I hear those clowns on tv speak of "the free market", I literally want to strangle them.  The market has never been free, however they are more audacious and throw the manipulation right in your face.  Basically implying, "what the fuck are you little people going to do about it." 

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 22:12 | 5388477 webspin
webspin's picture

Lesson number one; the markets always right!

Did you ever consider you might be really dumb? Five year trend and you still can't recognize it?

I guess if you'd made money shorting stocks you be brilliant but when you lose it it's got to be somebody else is manipulating it because it couldn't be your stubborn stupidity.

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 16:39 | 5387303 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

FOMC statement tomorrow - don't be caught short again, goyim!

Fool me once, shame on you, fool me 37 times, umm... 

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 16:39 | 5387314 gmak
gmak's picture

Buy the rumour. Sell the news.

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 16:42 | 5387329 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

lol good luck, they can promise zero rates until 2099, no downside ... with strong dollar, market will love it! we may crack 2000 tomorrow

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 16:45 | 5387339 Bell's 2 hearted
Bell's 2 hearted's picture

yeah, i wouldn't be shorting ... expect no less than A LOT of soothing talk from yellen

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 16:56 | 5387368 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

No matter what ol Yellin says, the financial teabag readers will tell us it's good news.....VERY good news indeed.....and indexes will rocket past record highs probly.

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 06:41 | 5389045 PT
PT's picture

They need the shorts so they can make more longs.  Well, they did ten years ago, anyway.  Who knows what they have discovered since then?

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 16:59 | 5387404 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Except that...,  German nominal rates have gone negative, out to the three year.  I see that mostly as a vote of no confidence in the EU.

But can you imagine what the hedgies would do with that shit here?

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 18:37 | 5387688 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

we ''MAY'' crack 2000 tomm?

 

ID BET EVERYTHING I FUCKING HAVE WE CRACK 2000 TOMM, THIS ''MARKET'' IS THE BIGGEST FUCKING JOKE I HAVE EVER SEEN. THERE IS NO WAY WE DO NOT CRACK 2000 TOMM.

 

DEATH TO ALL BANKERS AND EVERY FUCKING PERSON WHO WORKS ON THAT SCUM STREET THEY CALL WALL ST

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 20:12 | 5388079 4 wheel drift
4 wheel drift's picture

-ROFLMAO....

 

 

literally....

 

remeber this....  this market has ALWAYS favored the insiders.....   no matter how smart you are, how good you [think] you are -giving yer T/A skills (might as well be voodoo, point and figure, or ANYTHING you like)...

the real (and ONLY) question that matters is....

ARE YOU AN INSIDER ?

if YES....    then keep on playing the market...

if NOT... then....   beware of WHEN they switch the switch....  as you will be KILLED (financially speaking)

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 06:46 | 5389054 PT
PT's picture

My memory is a bit rusty here and I can't be bothered looking it up again:

From Michael Lewis' s The Big Short:  It wasn't enough to find someone willing to take the losing trade.  You had to make sure that they would pay up as they lost.  Preferably on a daily basis.

A few years after that book was written:  What were those CDSs that never got "triggered"?

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 18:52 | 5387750 huggy_in_london
huggy_in_london's picture

I think its finishing red tomorrow.  No more QE (for a while), so unless the fed are in buying htem themselves tomorrow, i think you see them red (along with bonds)

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 19:30 | 5387919 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

I think so too; and it'd better; cause that's the last day I can hold on. I'm down $4,000 on my stupid ass S&P shorts; and not amused. Theoretically, you should have the rally day first to set things up for my (mythical?) progammatic sellers. Somebody must be smart enough to get off this gravy train; they were sure jumping ship a week ago.

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 16:44 | 5387334 hairball48
hairball48's picture

My modest savings  are invested  100% in gold, silver, cash, and the "stuff" I need to live.

Fuck a bunch of markets!

hairball :)

 

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 16:58 | 5387394 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yep, DOW can go to 18,000 tomorrow I don't really give a shit, they can run their scam but it will be without me!

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 16:43 | 5387335 Bell's 2 hearted
Bell's 2 hearted's picture

the business cycle has not been repealed

 

per NBER recession calls

 

march 2001 - november 2001

 

december 2007 - june 2009

 

6 years 1 month between

 

when we enter november it will be 5 years 5 months into the "recovery"

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 16:48 | 5387349 BrosephStiglitz
BrosephStiglitz's picture

I believe they will go higher.  Just watch what happens when Japan and Euro bonds bite the dust.

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 17:06 | 5387432 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

after yellen does her little tap show, markets should rocket, perhaps to all time highs, and then we should tank a few days later

 

this is like Orwell's 1984 - everyone knows what's going on, but no one talks about it nor seems to care

 

Tue Nov 4 is barry's shellacking date - if we hold until the 4th, the downside should commence shortly thereafter - like it did in 2012

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 17:24 | 5387481 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

huh?? we bottomed the day after 2012 elections, 1343 SPX or so - ...

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 17:09 | 5387436 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Look @ the weekly and monthly charts for Rut, NDX, Dow, ES...

  Seriously?  If you can't spot the sucker at a poker game in 10 minutes,"you're the sucker".

 This fucking " shell game" has been levitated by central banks for well over (5) years. Look at the charts and the indicators.

 At some point GRAVITY takes over... When that singularity happens upon US, has eluded me, for far too long.

  I wish I could take the equity complex, launch it at light speed with return coordinates of 12 months. ( time dilation)

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 17:13 | 5387453 nakki
nakki's picture

When index start trading 8-10% down and up in 3 weeks you know that we're Japan. I look at Tesla today and have to laugh. Can $100 billion dollar market cap be that far off

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 17:22 | 5387479 Keltner Channel Surf
Keltner Channel Surf's picture

Jamie D:   "Volume ?!  We don't have to show you any stinkin' volume!"

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 17:35 | 5387509 Father Lucifer
Father Lucifer's picture

Tuesday October 21. 2014 fits the following description;

The next step is to wait and watch for one or more of the four market indices to show a “follow-through day.” This is a day where the index closes up significantly on volume heavier than the previous day. The S&P 500 or NYSE Composite typically need to close up 1.7% or either the Nasdaq Composite or Dow Industrials need to close up 2.2% or more. The first three days of an attempted rally are too soon to judge if the market confirms its new uptrend by having a follow-through day. Follow-through days can happen on the fourth day or later of the rally attempt.

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-17/how-recognize-them-visual-histo...

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 17:42 | 5387526 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Fuck this shit, lets talk about Kim Kardashian's ass some more.

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 18:15 | 5387610 BrosephStiglitz
BrosephStiglitz's picture

Sounds like something I could get behind.

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 17:49 | 5387542 I Write Code
I Write Code's picture

Show the McClellan summation index, it needs to come up a little more to neutral out.

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 18:35 | 5387687 fxpmtrader
fxpmtrader's picture

This market has become so obviously sick and rigged and managed by the 0.01% - see the latest monthly candle - that every single dumb sheep which still plays this game of the sharks - rightly - deserves to be fucked and fleeced.

In my view - everybody who still knows what honesty and fairness means - simply HAS to refuse to still be part of this game and of its riggers. Regardless of whether he wins some or looses some.

It's a matter of "do I want to be part of this evil money changer circus", enslaving the whole planet - or am I for honest work and fairness and for still a future for our kids.

This is not a matter of profits anymore - this is a matter of what is right - and what is wrong.

This is about being part of widespread financial fashism and dictatorship - or about still owning a soul which still knows what is evil and what is human - and which refuses to sell itsself for the (empty) promise of 3 silverlings.

This is about standing on the right side - or on evil's side.

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 20:23 | 5388120 economists_do_i...
economists_do_it_with_models's picture

Based on global equity flows (aka "flight to quality"), I estimate the fair value of VIX to be 37.50.  Remember, VIX was over 30 just a short while ago.

Based on high yield bonds, I estimate the S&P500 should be about -351pts (-18%) lower.

Such opinions are on the basis that a correction would be a healthy/beneficial thing as part of the natural flow/order of things.  Not gloom & doom per se.

I admit that is both amazing and frustrating that such moves do not occur and the S&P ends up +23 on the day.  I understand that small caps were oversold, but the sharpness of the rally has gone from "predictable" to "delusional."

Tue, 10/28/2014 - 20:43 | 5388184 BullyBearish
BullyBearish's picture

Futures already moving up for the kill tomorrow...FB, who cares?  IBM, AMZN, TWTR...who are they?  Durable goods?  Never heard of it.  Housing...give me a break.  The FED will always show who's boss, even when it is capitulating on QE.  It's not a matter of IF the market will reprice...it's when they allow it.

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 03:35 | 5388901 fxpmtrader
fxpmtrader's picture

Where as "they" are not just the fed - but all the major banks - in one single stinking money changers bed. This irrational monthly candle explains it all. Only ultra dumb sheeple will continue to be part of this "Let's fuck the hell out of these stupid gamblers" aka rush this SnP 200 points south within a night - and within another night rush it again 200 pts north.

Such moves are neither coincidence nor moves which happen in a normal market. This is pure fleecing and fucking the sheep - by the market makers, which are ultimately the banks and money changers.

Every sane person long is done with this casino.

 

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!