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FaceBook Crashing After Hours After Guiding Sharply Lower Q4 Revenue Growth
Update: the reason FB stock is now crashing is because moments ago, the CFO stunned the investing community when he announced that FaceBook costs next year will go up by 55-75% while forecasting revenue growth of 40 percent to 47 percent in the final quarter of 2014. That's down sharply from 59 percent in the third quarter. He also announced that WhatsApp, FB's $19 billion acquisition, was "accretive" to the tune of a $232 million loss in the past 6 months. Stock now down over 10%. As a reminder, according to Goldman there are some 126 hedge funds long FB stock as of June 30.
And then there's this:
@zerohedge yeah those thumbs get more accurate on the 6+ too, so there goes 20% of those accidental taps.
— Reaper Capital (@ReaperCapital) October 28, 2014
***
Moments ago, Facebook reported, as part of its Q3 earnings report in which it beat both the top and the bottom line with $0.43 in non-GAAP EPS on a 35% non-GAAP tax rate, and $0.30 in GAAP EPS on 40% in GAAP taxes), that it now has some 1.35 billion in monthly active users, or about 20% of the world's population. For those interested, the full breakdown of FB's mostly non-GAAP data can be found here, but here is what stuck out to us. Facebook reported that its Monthly Active Users for the US and Canada - the segment that generates roughly half of all FB sales - rose, at a pace of about 700,000 per month, to a record 206 million. Putting that number in context: in the same two countries, there are currently about 155 million people employed. In other words, there are about 1.3 Facebook users for every single employed person in the US and Canada.
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Perhaps, some people are too busy on Facebook to work. Forward.
Perhaps, pets such as cats, dogs and goldfish have Facebook accounts It would be criminal to deprive them of social media.
I never been on FB..but then again I don't work for anybody
Buzz says there are, like, 19 billion Facebook users,
so, Hell'stheproblem?
Dumb Metric move on...
What's facebook?
True story. I have a friend of a friend (don't we all?) who is in his forties (probably 50 by now) and hasn't worked since 2010.
He spends his whole day arguing with "right-wing idiots" on facebook. His live-in girlfriend pays all of the bills.
My friend told him "At least those 'right-wing idiots' have jobs". His response was that he doesn't want to bust his ass for "the man"
I think this is a good illustration of what is going on, regardless of your political leaning.
Lol ... now that is a guy who you want to spend advertising mony on and spy on ...
Me and Mrs. Shark have never used FaceBook, and we are both employed full time.
Lots of unemployed people using FB...
[seems that FB is a fad; anyone remember MySpace...]
Faceplant.
They are all fads and the next big thing always comes along. Of course if the economy takes a real crap the next big thing might be survival.
It is, and I think the headline perfectly captures our narcissistic population. More people have Facebook than have jobs. I deleted mine a while back, and finally, just a few weeks ago, my wife finally got rid of hers. It took a while, and a lot of gentle prodding(don't want her to feel like I 'made' her do it) , but we are done with social media. So that's 2 more people WITH jobs that don't have FB accounts....
Is anybody else sick of Facebook? Does anybody else wish FB and other 'social media' would just go away, and their advertisers FUCK OFF AND LEAVE YOU ALONE?
I don't mind it. I have friends and family all over the world, and it's nice to see them post an occasional family pic or update of what they're up to.
As long as it's not more than once a month. Anyone who feels the need to post there daily has deep seated insecurities.
"Anyone who feels the need to post there daily has deep seated insecurities."
Yeah. Just like us daily posters on ZH. Oh, wait......
The Fuckerburger Funnies Begin!
I go on facebook daily. I've become an addict...AND since I'm a new grandpa I make use of bragging rights.
I find it fascinating to instantly communicate with people from around the world. Just as I find the cheap-assed, throw away flip-phone in my pocket. To me that's Star Trek 1965, but I'm still waiting on my flying jetcar.
As to their ads, adblock, takes care of most. Though now facebook is pushing ads direct to the 'wall'. Used to be you could click "don't want to see this" and ignore reasons why. Today I notice that there is no button, however they offer you the option to participate in a survey.
i don't care to be around ppl who brag about their children or grandchildren...
b o r i n g
My major hate is Twatter.....
Why anyone would want to bare their lives on FB is beyond me.
It is common knowledge that often employers, etc require applicants to hand over FB accounts, so the applicant's FB account can be data mined for dirt. And that the NSA, etc data mines FB for dirt, etc on people. Why not just leave your house doors open every day when you leave for work?
Chickens have more brains that the average "voter".
DK
p.s. Wife had a FB account....doesn't use now but we still get daily emails about how someone we don't know just posted a new selfie or other pic to their FB account.
Maybe if daytime soap operas were better, fewer FSA folks would do FB?
DK
He's just externalizing costs.
that's a STUPID metric when every grandma that i know of is on facebook posting pictures of their grandkids
@ NoStawks
FUCK GRANDMA!!!!
I guess the PE is back to infinity from 90.....sweet
Wont matter, its six dollars off of all time highs and has traded up three dollars from the aftermarket lows of yesterday. It will be making new highs again by this time next week just BTFD.
I wonder how much revenue they generate for Facebook and if they have to cut back on their consumption of dog food.
My cat, Captain Cat-Morgan, has a Facebook page. His interests include firearms, camping and hiking, finance, and cardboard boxes.
Two words: Jim Cramer
Two words: hell no... ;-)
my best friend's sister makes $80 /hour on the internet . She has been laid off for 7 months but last month her paycheck was $13987 just working on the internet for a few hours. visit site... www.Yelptrade.com
You don't have a best friend. You're just suffering delusions of adequacy.
Now fuck off.
earthling, take me to your Facebook
Facebook is changing its ticker symbol to FFB.
An extra F for service.
how long till we find out about the bogus accounts?
say, anyone know where the enron accountants ended up at ...
You can find them on LinkedIn. http://www.linkedin.com/company/arthur-andersen-&-co-?trk=ppro_cprof
Can`t be long now, a sudden collapse in Zuck`s paper will mean papering over the cash burn rate, plus the massive stock options being blown out when media starts to latch on to the employee turnover rate is going to be impossible to hide in the monthly options repurchases.
In hindsight, issuing billions of shares was perhaps one of his masterstroke moves, create so much volume, you can hide employee option blowouts & dilutive deals in vwaps. The bigger question I have is the `goodwill`value of facebook.
Fun fact, nothing in the EULA ever allows Facebook to use you as unwilling Zimbardo subjects. There is also a big volume of case law regarding how people have successfully sued when they were studied without fair compensation or explanation of the side effects.
If nobody trusts Zuck anymore to keep them safe and their best interests at heart, will people still share everything with Zuck? If someone managed to make a bucketload of cash by suing Tobacco when they experimented by adding menthol and benzene to cigarettes which led to an uptick in Cancer, and never told the addicts RJR/Imperial alterted the contents of Export A's: could someone make a case that altering the timeline, alerts and behavior triggers may have led to stress level changes which impacted job performance and/or employment status ? Could you draw a line to disability and "facebook addiction" ?
I'd love to see a Harvard grad try. Just for the lulz.
That's why Zuck is cashing-out and buying Hawaiian beaches:
http://realestate.aol.com/blog/2014/10/23/mark-zuckerberg-buys-hawaii-beach/
He's trying to keep up with Larry, but he's too late; Larry already owns the entire island of Lanai...
Where's his space program?
You're really a nobody billionaire unless you have a space program.
They aren't bogus, they're undocumented like our new leeches from the sourthen reaches.
News - sleeping with 21 women in one night reduces the risk of Prostate cancer.
Also, a cure for Ebola as long as you fall asleep between orgasms.
Wilt the Stilt with the tip of the hat
I am glad I am not on that list....FUCK FACEBOOK!
That's my password.
I wonder how many ZH 'Facebook Users' there are? [The 'over/under' is 3]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O6rHeD5x2tI
The world may never know!
+1 for the name
I signed up for two friends and now i get bombarded with notifications when I dont realy follow them as the novelty wore off very quickly
I'm not a member. I quit several months before the pr1$m disclosure, but how could so many Americans remain members after the disclosure?
Some probably relish the idea of someone wanting to know what they are up to.
I mean, they are on facebook.
Probably own a lot of cats too.
pods
Just have one cat. Family is spread all over, as are actual friends, and, at least in my mind, it's a good way to keep in touch.
Stupid
So you don't appear as the nail sticking out. Limit actual personal information, occassionally post information that can help people open their eyes.
How do the FB insiders view FB?
Type in FB at www.insidercow.com....shows heavy and continuing FB insider selling....all the insiders are selling hand over fist.
None of the FB insiders are buying.
Wonder if that means us suckers should be snapping up all the FB insider sold shares?
Heavy insider selling.....got to be a bullish sign...right, uh, right?
DK
It amazes me that there's still business who think they need to invest money in that,crap because they need to be there and maybe some day it will make money...
All that social media crap... There's nothing social about it. It's the actual symbol of the decay of society.
Business owners I (personally) know have pages on Facebook because they know people are perpetually glued to their phones, and via Facebook, you can reach a far larger audience than with Newspaper, TV and Radio advertising. The Facebook application comes preinstalled on Android phones (not sure about iOS), and becomes integrated into the Notification system on the phone, so you'll ALWAYS know when something "new" and "cool" appears.
The crux of the matter is though you can NOT uninstall the Facebook app from Android phones unless you deftly make your way past the OS permissions. So, when people are subtley suggested into using it, it's become the platform for advertising and "connecting" with people.
I certainly don't think it's the best thing to do, but that's what businesses are moving towards as more and more people turn into the wife of Guy Montag in Fahrenheit 451.
Internet and Digital Marketers love it. Those with experience can track the clicks they get to squeeze pages and actually monetize those leads. The targetting is precise and its a hell of a lot cheaper and less draconian than doing Google Ads and SEO. When that changes, then look out below. If they raise the price of their ad rates to that of doing radio and tv ads, its over for Zuck & Co. The precision niche marketing for so cheap means that even the housewife selling birdhouses made out of dried dung and scrap metal can sell their wares on Etsy and advertise for cheap on FB.
FB is meant for marketers, designed by marketers. They never had the 9-5 Joe Sixpack user's best interests in mind. Hence the "updates" to keep lifting the skirt on your profile every so often and "who can see your pages".
I'm not on it. But my businesses are and its great lead gen to the bored housewives who make buying decisions for most households or sports addicts.
And if you have a job, you're on it more than you think. If you work for yourself or have a business, you're right, your time is worth too much to deal with the stupid shit postings of people who are addicted to dopamine...
You can easily delete the Facebook app that comes with BlackBerry phones. That was the first thing I did with the Z10 and immediately felt better.
Just make sure you get rid of the service books as well (if they're still an option in the new OS for the Z10). I remember removing Twitter, Facebook et. al. from my 9700 Storm (which I still have) and I needed to get rid of the service books to make sure they were all gone.
My phone barely texts. $40 of minutes lasts, so far, eight months.
Suckerbergs
scummerbags
And I'm not one of them.....
206 million would be entrepreneurs and wannabe celebs dote on Suckberg's media circus. A maaasive FUCK YOU to every one of them.
You hit the nail on the head. Half the idiots there think they're entrepreneurs or celebrities.
What's Facebook?
A brazen cynic might demand to see the definition of ' active ' user.... assuming the cynic really gave a damn about Fakebook..
So what constitutes a Facebook "active user"?
I believe that over a period of about 3 years I have signed up for Facebook 3 times under various random screen names so that I could receive some kind of promotion. After doing so, I have never used any of the 3 accounts again. I mean really, who wants to be blatantly tracked and promoted.
My guess is that none of the accounts that I created would be considered "active users".
700,000 per month is an incredible growth rate. Compare that to the number of people who watch any average TV show.
One wonders how FB accellerated so much after going public?!? The people I know are using FB less, not more ... but then again all of them have jobs.
On another note, apparently LinkedIn reactivates accounts without people's knowledge. 2 years ago I cancelled my LinkedIn account, because I did not like that they profited from selling my information to anyone with a credit card and without my knowledge. I went through all of the proper steps. About a year later I started receiving invitations again from people who said they found me on LinkedIn. So, I went through the whole procedure again. Now, just in the last week it started happening again... maybe they need to goose their numbers so they surrepticiously reactivate cancelled accounts.
"We are programmed to receive. You can check out any time you like. But you can never leave!"
Your bank account is never closed. You think it is. Your driver's license, if you let it expire, shows up on their records as suspended. Your drivers license information is forever...like your banking info.
I swear I just can't figure out how this company makes any money.
Who clicks on adds? Who is paying for sponsorship?
I was a paid customer for a *very* short time and the response rates and lead generation results were terrible.
Are they making "real" dollars or "theoritical internet dollars" ? How much of the NSA & CIA budget goes to Facebook via the back door?
I accidentally click on a dozen ads daily, FB and other sites. It's all bullshit, the ads, watch revenues drop like a fucking cinder block if the economy starts to really slow.
I always wonder why Facebook activity spikes M-F 8AM to 5PM and sees a real dropoff on nights and weekends. How many working moms have used the company scanner to scan pics of their kids shitty diapers to post on their timeline?
http://www.theonion.com/video/cias-facebook-program-dramatically-cut-age...
Here's a thought (my comment above made me think of this):
700,000 new users a month is a lot. A hell of a lot. I'd be interested though to compare that with new phone purchases, especially by people who either have never had a smart phone, or have never used Facebook. With Android devices, Facebook is preinstalled (and can't be removed), and when you first turn the phone on, it goes through a Setup Wizard, and asks you for an email address to connect you with people you know.
This process might well include creating a new Facebook account for those who either don't have one, or supply a different email address to the one they normally use for Facebook. Then, once active on the phone, they become a full time active user, because the application will query Facebook (and refreshing the token created for authentication, triggering an activity) for all the latest updates/notifications etc.
That's how I think such numbers are being reached, and as such, those numbers really are garbage (as we already know from other stories about click farms etc.).
Sounds quite possible. Such a huge new user base sounds like a total lie.
Not relevant for the data, but just for information: a lot of people I know are using FB less and less since a couple of years or they left the website alltogether.
Wow, best logical explanation I've seen in a long time. Add in the fact of small screens = accidental clicks.... You may have just figured out farcebooks numbers.
"and cant be removed" well it most certainly can but thats another topic
Re: FB earnings--I wonder if there is a database somewhere that lists all the companies using non GAAp and Buybacks so it could be seen how much overstated eps in the aggregate.
it is a real pain in the rear to go thru press releases or financial to see whats been adjusted.
theissue for FB revenues is phony clicks and one day the companies advertising will see they get zero from advertising based on clicks.
this entire market is a scam, the economic reporting is a scam and one day we wake up and find out it imploded while we were sleeping.
Not to mention their 2.6 billion share float, and a PE of 85.
It truly is FarceBook when it comes to fair valuation.
Its not the number of user that amazes me since many people have multiple accounts. Not counting bots I'm sure. What blows my mind is costs rising 55-75% next year, why? What's App loses money and only cost 22 billion, just a matter of time before that non-gapp pretend earnings minus one time charges is still not making money. Pretty much sums up the balance sheets of every nation in the world.
Facebook is dead among the younger set.
Tinder, Snapchat, Twitter, Instagram, Tumblr - and those are just the mainstream ones I've heard of.
i love way tyler say something crash. actually when ZH write CRASH: consider 10% low.
to me a plane crash do not loose 10% altitude, it hits the ground, explode, no more crash.
an action who go from 88 to 72 is not a crash, since in 48h the level is gain back....
start to be boring by all fake economical BS news, which are not.
Markets and stawks run primarily by 'accidental clicks'....LMFBO!!
Apparently the Street didn't "like" FB's latest announcement.
It feels so good fondling my stacks. Is that a sin?
not if you wear cotton gloves.
And wash your hands afterwards.
I like fondling my sack also.
If we sum up the last week of earnings (just the companies I remember):
FB destroyed 20 billion USD of paper wealth
GILD destroyed 5 billion USD of paper wealth
TWTR destroyed 3 billion USD of paper wealth
YELP destroyed 400 million USD of paper wealth (why am I even mentioning this?)
ANZN destroyed 7 billion USD of paper wealth
That's a total of more than 35 billion USD. In one week. Somebody must be hurting here, no? Who sold puts a week ago?
So between twitter and facebook that social media BS is doing real good then today .....
"Let's get social - social - on social media..."
I just can't get this tune out of my head...
I have never been on Facebook since I value my privacy. It's always seemed creepy to me.
U.S. media corporations love Facebook and promote it promote it regularly and sing about the the easy money the new invention made. This makes me never want to use it or invest in it.
Putting that number in context: in the same two countries, there are currently about 155 million people employed. In other words, there are about 1.3 Facebook users for every single employed person in the US and Canada.
that is soooooo old school. your implication is - the advertising isn't worth anything, because the people don't have jobs, so they can't buy the advertising.
do you know anybody on any sort of assistance that is lacking anything, including funds to buy i-junk and other crap? please. if so, please call obama now. i am serious.
there is nobody on assistance without a car, a phone, a flat panel, an air-conditioner, a microwave and plenty of extra calories daily. this america, it really is good.
I don't care to invest in the Welfare State. It's not sustainable and I also don't care to invest in anything the U.S. corporate media pumps.
http://img2.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20140830223144/fallout/images/f/f1/Sh...
I've seen quite a few websites boast 18000 members and growing..while I look at the actual visitors is llike 30 on a good day. puppets and muppets making a pretty convincing show they are rocking and thumping merrily along..I make great conversations with myself too...but..in the end..we want real people...then scanning the membership some really bizarre names. like someone was making it up as they went along..Personally I think aside from fluffing numbers FB and Google got what they wanted..everyones info and realized..oh snap ..everybody is broke..Indeed the well is dry..may be time to get out of dodge..how many times can you rehypothecate peoples private lives..when the lives are all debt ridden..another example of colony collapse..
Putin sabotage!
Polonium in the search engine.
Kaboom!
FB, yeah, like I'm gonna use my real name on the internet. lulz
Yeah, but what about the picture?
Let me interpret this: the amortized cost of WhatsApp over the last six months was $232m, and revenue was zero, but that sounds like they're amortizing it over 70 years, or else they're still reserving $18b as "goodwill". Revenue was zero in any case.
Oh, and it's only down 8.x% right now.
Bezos has got to be so pissed off he didn't dump a load on WhatsApp...
I use facebook strictly for pleasure! You should try wacking off on your bosses wifes face sometime!
Only a sick demented mind could think of something like that. Is that you daddy???
May "Facebook" and all those addicted narcissists who worship themselves on it, do a faceplant into their own bowels. Ascending, transverse, descending or sigmoid, any section will suffice.
My, my, that is a bit strong, don't you think?
It will go right back up tomorrow ...
Actually this "crash" is so far staying mostly within the Bollinger band, though it has traversed from top to bottom of a very wide band in one tiny after-hours session.
Hope it becomes a negative reinforing loop - revenues down, share price fall, members leave...start again. The political economy of Facebook's business model is one of 'taking ownership' of others data and information.
I wouldn't Facefuck if they paid me! Fuck you Fuckerberg and the horse you rode in on.
Yah, but they got that really cool blue line around a post when you click on it. That has got to be worth a couple of billion!