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The Fed is Absolutely Terrified of Something… What Is It?

Phoenix Capital Research's picture




 

What is the Fed so terrified of?

 

For five years we’ve been told that the world was in recovery. “Analysts” and pundits have trotted out every explanation imaginable for why things are in fact great and the markets should go straight up.

 

On top of this endless and mind-numbing chatter, the Fed has spent over $4 trillion… an amount larger than most sovereign economies. To put this into perspective, the Fed could have spent less money buying EVERY SINGLE ITEM OF ECONOMIC OUTPUT FROM GERMANY FOR A YEAR.

 

Between this insanity and the endless chatter of the world being great we have to ask… if things are SO great… why is it that even a 10% correction in stocks triggers panic from the Fed?

 

See the small dot in the chart below? That is the massive drop that caused both Janet Yellen and Fed President Bullard to verbal intervene to hold the markets up. They couldn’t even stomach a dip that barely registers on the five-year monster bull market without assuring the markets that they’d help.

 

 

It’s absolutely insane especially when you consider that stocks could have fallen to 14000 on the Dow and STILL been in a bull market.

 

 

All of this tells us, in no uncertain terms that the Fed is absolutely panicked about something. What it is, we cannot know for certain, but given that the general public is now aware of the abject fraud, corruption, and incompetence surrounding the bailouts and Fed policies, we can only assume it’s something BIG.

 

The reality is that the Fed never fixed the last crisis. It never addressed the financial system’s leverage. It never implemented any meaningful reform. The only thing it did was create another bubble.

 

And we all know how bubbles end.

 

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Best Regards

Phoenix Capital Research

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Wed, 10/29/2014 - 20:32 | 5391913 realWhiteNight123129
realWhiteNight123129's picture

They fear phase #4, and quasi fiscal deficit. Greenspan is correct, raising rates on M0 reserve is bad bad bad monetary policy.

Phase #1 of money printing interest rates fall (Checked we had hte junk bond rally in 2009

Phase #2 price of land, real estate rise (correct, that happened for agricultural land.)

 

PHase #3 all bearing interest securities rise (Stock market)

Phase $4: The commodities rise.

Fullarton described the phenomenon in 1844.

The printed money should have started to play with the GDP much earlier to pleaser the Fed so we have mild inflation. Instead the gas kept on accumulating, once it leaves the balloon of financial assets it will go into the real economy.... ouch... Greenspan is correct, money starting to play with the real economy will force the Fed into hiking in a disorderly and wrong way: Paying interest on M0 which is absolute monetary no-no... It ends in quasi fiscal deficit and central bank blow up.

The money needs to be trapped into financial assets and not released all at once in the real economy or it is hyperinflation.

 

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 16:56 | 5391336 theyjustcantstop
theyjustcantstop's picture

their terrorfied, the curtian is being drawn back, the people are asking questions.

the fed., it isn't a govt. agency, it owns americas central banks, who pays the salaries, and bonuses of the cb's employees?

surely the same people who own, jpm, goldman, and dozens more cb's around the world wouldn't be in charge of regulating, and paying their salaries, and bonuses, that might be a conflict of interest.

the average persons are seeing this doesn't add up, and are surprised it's even legal, and if it's legal who made this law.

i'm with krugman, but first repeal the federal reserve act, make the fed. responsible for their own debt, then we'll pay the treasury debt, bingo americas fixed, that was easy.

people are wondering the fed. they get an address, a picture of a building they want to know who owns the fed., do you think they'd be surprised to find out the .00001% of the worlds richest people, would they be surprised to know the feds. owner, the BIS collects a percentage of every penny spent, or borrowed by the citizens in almost all of the civilized world.

to the rest who are curious take up ron pauls banner, audit the fed., tell your representatives in dc..

 

 

 

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 14:45 | 5390903 cdude
cdude's picture

Many corporations have been buying back massive amounts of their own stock. This produces "float shrink" . If their stock takes a big dive then the company take a huge hit on the ol' balance sheet.

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 16:07 | 5391197 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

the stock can't take a big hit, they own the float, one phone call and the shorts are forced to cover. if the stock gets a dissing from the analysts you just take the company private using your overinflated valuation, after all you're just buying the shares from yourself, and to make it even sweeter when the public gets a whiff of what you are up to they want to pile into a evershrinking number of available shares, so the price can go parabolic. in the end you cash in a billion dollars worth of chips on a lousy million dollar company. what is it you don't understand about getting filthy rich off of the fed policy.

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 14:28 | 5390824 Consuelo
Consuelo's picture

Well, is it going to be a Merry $$$Chanukah this year, or not...?

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 14:08 | 5390695 laomei
laomei's picture

The reality is that the Fed never fixed the last crisis.

Well, that's not entirely true.  It's been one crisis to the next for a long time now.  The system broke in 2001, but that was really just the end of the 90s tech bubble, which was also based on bullshit.  Shit's been fucked since ronnie raygun, and even then, that was all in response to a system that was fucked... kicking the can, kicking the can, kicking the can... allowing reality to set in would plunge the us down to 3rd world... but it's getting there all on its own despite the bullshit.  which means when it falls apart it will be even worse.

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 14:02 | 5390655 Bankster Kibble
Bankster Kibble's picture

What scares the Fed today may be the same thing that scared Treasury back in 2008.  Then Treasury Secretary Paulson was on his knees before Pelosi asking for the TARP bailout approval in Congress.  Who was gunning for Paulson if he failed? 

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 13:58 | 5390630 Goldbugger
Goldbugger's picture

The FED has backed up themselves in a corner. If QE 4 comes out that will be the end, this will totally discredit the FED. They have to keep rates low and Q3 2015 is not enough time to unwind once rate are to start going up, They need low rates for years to come otherwise the Derivatives created for the last 6 years will Globally unwind.

 

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1414093709.php

 

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 13:32 | 5390475 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

do you believe, that the fed as a private bank holds the liability for paper held on their balance sheet? NO, the securities revert to the US treasury in the event of default. the fed is a GSE by definition. is there any possibility that the government will break the implied covenant? well there might be a few reps, but the system works to support the encumbency. the fed is a middle man, just as the big banks were middle men between loan originators and the MBS market, they really own nothing, however they can be caught in much the same way as the banks were in 2008, and bankrupted, but of course UST would take responsibility, which is when things get very interesting.

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 13:18 | 5390402 VWAndy
VWAndy's picture

They are afraid they cant start ww3. If they cant they end up swinging from lamp posts. They have been blocked and thwarted from starting ww3 several times now. It does not matter that we have not seen the man behind the curtian. That we know there is one is the thing that keeps stopping them. The cat is out of the bag.  

 Stunt after stunt regular people keep calling BULLSHIT. They cant lead us off to war if we wont follow them. That has been thier exit plan for the last few centuries. Bit by bit we are becoming more Bullshit resistant.

 To all those that keep calling bullshit. I Thank You for stepping up when others ran away.

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 13:15 | 5390397 Raoul_Luke
Raoul_Luke's picture

Duh!  Sixty two percent LFPR?  Declining real median income?  Unprecedented levels of "stimulus" producing sub-2% GDP growth?

We've been in a depression and the only thing that keeps everyone from realizing it is soaring stock indeces and the wealth effect it induces among the top 10%. 

If I was a Fed official that would be keeping me up at night...

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 12:58 | 5390319 CHX
CHX's picture

Lampposts? 

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 12:56 | 5390304 Duffy Duck
Duffy Duck's picture

The username the phallic crusader has not been activated or is blocked.

 

ZEROHEDGE:  NO FACT-BASED CRITICISM OF ISRAEL ALLOWED.

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 12:46 | 5390246 I Write Code
I Write Code's picture

The Fed has known since day one that this QE stuff was poison and could not be used forever, but they believed it needed to be used for a while.  For various reasons they kept at it much, much longer than they anticipated, but I suspect they now fear to keep going because some of the banksters have figured it out and, well, to make a long story short, it just won't work anymore.

So they have to stop and they don't expect it to be pretty, but the first time they pulled back it got ugly too fast for them.  They are already off the tiger and dealing with the dismount.

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 12:42 | 5390228 Stained Class
Stained Class's picture

They did more than verbally intervene on that day, ask RUT about it.

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 12:45 | 5390245 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Yesterday was a rutty day, maybe the last up day for a long time and the last short squeeze.

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 12:20 | 5390138 MASTER OF UNIVERSE
MASTER OF UNIVERSE's picture

$1.4 Quadrillion Dark Pool derivatives universe is about to unwind into a black hole in another universe.

 

NOTE: This is not good and generates understandable fear IMHO.

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 12:21 | 5390136 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

The missing part of your story is simple...the fed is afraid the dollar will be rejected as a medium of exchange, that it will fail as a currency.

If you have been following the big story line it is a fiat at the end of it's life cycle about to collapse as the result of it's debt overhang. You know how it goes, fiat is created as debt but the interest on the debt is not created so the economy must grow to service the debt. If growth slows then debt is either defaulted on or inflation must take the place of growth....you know this story line right?

The actions of the fed seem to me to be fairly simple, since the wealth of the world is largely held in dollars or dollar derivatives (like other currencies) then everything that can be done will be done before the final inevitable ending. All the players on the world stage will cooperate as their wealth is similarly held in dollars.

Once you see the big picture the machinations of the Fed and most other parties can be seen as rational actions in support of the dying system.

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 12:45 | 5390238 Milestones
Milestones's picture

Excellent, succient points. Occums razor.              Milestones

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 12:11 | 5390086 bitterwolf
bitterwolf's picture

The masses....ex-middle class white folks in the street with ar-15's.....shudna said let them eat low/no interest money....a preview was on display last April in the  nevada desert @bundy ranch when the federal agents completely backed down in face of an aggressive militia....when the fuck has that ever happened?...Answer:it has never happened before in our entire history....

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 12:19 | 5390131 Bemused Observer
Bemused Observer's picture

When I see a militia show up for shit like the condo case in PA, then I'll start thinking that maybe there's hope...

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 12:02 | 5390044 Toolshed
Toolshed's picture

Well, since it is now well known that the developed countries central banks have all been busy buying stocks, and have enormously bloated their balance sheets with overvalued crap equities and other paper assets, and are leveraged to the frickin gills, gee I just don't know why they would refuse to let the markets drop.

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 11:54 | 5390001 Duc888
Duc888's picture

Deflation

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 13:02 | 5390337 CHX
CHX's picture

Hyperinflation due to a loss of control and confidence in the dollar. 

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 13:36 | 5390503 bbq on whitehou...
bbq on whitehouse lawn's picture

Nither are an option, so what are the options? Everything else. Fixed prices untill they break, Fix computers till the break, Fix the press untill it breaks.
When it breaks have an emergency, then issue rules and more emergency rules so on and so forth.
The checks will be credited as paid when they are not, force default on everyone and anyone who cant or wont fight.

Look for never ending emergencies untill someone, somewhere calls for the doors to lock and the casino to burn to the ground with everyone trapped inside. Then look for a new casino with new funding and into the memory hole the old casino goes.

They will fight untill the funding runs out, this is the part when all the agencies eat each other.

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 11:41 | 5389928 joego1
joego1's picture

Ebola chunks in the Fed lounge clean up on isle 3.

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 12:44 | 5390235 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Can't say ?bo?a  or was that ?ba?a.

Need to get a GAWK or GREP on this.

Might need some Regular Expression to filter it all out.

Can't tip the bots. /sarc

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 11:41 | 5389923 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

As has been noted for years now......we're being set up for the biggest failure in the history of the planet.

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 11:36 | 5389902 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

"The Fed is Absolutely Terrified of Something… What Is It?"

Guillotines.

An American, not US subject.

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 12:20 | 5390140 bigbwana
bigbwana's picture

The Fed is owned by the Illuminati. Or used to be. Kicked out by the Dragon family and backed p by the Galactic Federation. SELL! SELL! SELL The bubbl is about to burst. Better a year early than a day late! 

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 12:24 | 5390159 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

You left out the Venetians, the reptiles and Col Sanders

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 12:43 | 5390231 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

The Colonel is a lizard creature too? Rats. "Here, buy my chicken. Buy my chicken!!"

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 13:10 | 5390371 Ralph Spoilsport
Ralph Spoilsport's picture

"Get your sausage-in-a-bun..." - C.M.O.T. Dibbler

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 11:32 | 5389880 KingdomKum
KingdomKum's picture

molon labe

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 11:32 | 5389879 DavidC
DavidC's picture

Graham is SPOT ON with this.

DavidC

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 11:29 | 5389853 messymerry
messymerry's picture

The Ferguson crowd showing up at their offices...

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 12:47 | 5390252 10mm
10mm's picture

The Ferguson crowd crowd does not know where or what The Fed is.

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 14:02 | 5390572 daveO
daveO's picture

Good article until here;

As economies grow in toto, AS THEY SHOULD, because the human population is growing, the money supply should grow and SCALE WITH THE POPULATION OF HUMANS.  Why?  Because MONEY is a FUNGIBLE PROXY for human capacity to labor, produce and create.  Mo’ peeps, mo’ jack.  So, back to our example, when there are 10,000 people noshing 10,000 pounds of bacon, there SHOULD BE 100,000 seashells in the economy (total money supply), which would then bring us right back to where we started – the clearing price of the bacon would be ten seashells per pound.

No accounting for productivity gains! Giving all those gains to the plantation owner (banker who counterfeited the shells). Imagine, if we were still paying the same price as they did in 1776! It would remind folks why they coined the term "eating high on the hog". Even bacon was out of reach for most, back then. Farmers grew their own. Gains in productivity should, eventually, make every thing cheaper in relation to labor. The ultimate goal is to make everything nearly free, not stable in price. When prices are stable or higher in relation to this, we're getting shafted by the man in the big house. Here's what I mean. $400 for a TI caculator. http://www.vintagecalculators.com/html/ti_cal-tech1.html
Wed, 10/29/2014 - 14:27 | 5390817 nobodysfool
nobodysfool's picture

You don't account for the 49% (and growing) of the population that's refusing to work and lives on govt assistance. They don't even realize that for the govt to give them something it first has to steal it from a working person! People have figured out they can vote themselves free money from the govt (thank a dem and vote them out!) that pays them more than most jobs they're eligible for.  Hence govt has killed incentives to work.  The reckoning is coming...

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 12:13 | 5390101 zuuma
zuuma's picture

She's pretty hot, despite that foil hat.

A spanking, a couple mojitos, & a red leather bustier would set up the perfect date with Miss Barnhardt.

And she can keep the AR

 

Bonus: She probably tucked away a few guillotines for future use & knows how to run & maintain them.

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 13:31 | 5390482 booboo
booboo's picture

She worships a dead woman and lives in a van. Other then that she is deadly.

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 12:43 | 5390232 Ralph Spoilsport
Ralph Spoilsport's picture

You like getting spanked?

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 11:24 | 5389836 p00k1e
p00k1e's picture

The Anunnaki on Planet X sent a message. 

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 12:20 | 5390137 Dead Man Walking
Dead Man Walking's picture

They want the women.

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 13:33 | 5390498 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

They can have most of them . . . men too.

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 12:10 | 5389828 Urban Roman
Urban Roman's picture

<-- Dark pools.

<-- Nail guns.

 

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 11:22 | 5389819 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Derivatives.

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 11:45 | 5389946 PAPA ROACH
PAPA ROACH's picture

Not sure why it is such a 'mystery', pension funds will fail on a falling market, just as we get waves of boomers. Only way this works is a rising equity market. Think opf it as the final bad deal in a string of countless bad deals, from the generation that has raped this economy with the promises it has made to itself.

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 13:25 | 5390441 booboo
booboo's picture

Thats right cause we all know grandpa wanted a free abortion and a Obama phone after the war.

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