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Peak Empire 2.0

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Originally posted at Club Orlov blog,

Based on the lessons of history, all empires collapse eventually; thus, the probability that the US empire will collapse can be set at 100% with a great deal of confidence. The question is, When? (Everyone keeps asking that annoying question.)

 

Of course, all you have to do is leave the US, go some place that isn't plugged into the US economy in non-optional ways, and you won’t have to worry about this question too much. Some people have made guesses but, as far as I can tell, no one has come up with viable methodology for calculating the date. In order to provide a remedy for this serious shortcoming in collapse theory, I once tried to outline a method for figuring it out in an article titled “Peak Empire,” which was based on Joseph Tainter’s theory of diminishing returns on complexity—or diminishing returns on empire. It’s a perfect problem for differential calculus, and all those microeconomics students who are busy calculating marginal cost vs. marginal revenue, so that they can look for work in the soon-to-be-defunct shale gas industry, might take it up, to put their math talents to better use. In the meantime, here is an update, and a revised estimate.
 

US Empire of Bases

Just to review, as the brilliant analyst Chalmers Johnson explained, the US is an “empire of bases,” not an empire of colonies. It is not considered politically correct to annex other countries anymore. Witness the reaction to Russia taking back Crimea, even though its population has a right to self-determination, and voted 98% in favor of the idea. But, had things turned out differently, putting a NATO base in Crimea would have been just fine. Still, there are quite a few US “territories” (read “colonies”) listed in the Pentagon Base Structure report, including American Samoa, Guam, Johnston Atoll, Marshall Islands, Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico, US Virgin Islands and Wake Islands. We should probably include Hawaii, since in 1993 the US Congress “apologized” to Hawaii for kidnapping the Queen and illegally annexing the territory. They are not giving it back, mind you, but they don't mind saying we’re sorry, because they stole it fair and square. The same could be said for Texas, California—the whole bloody continent for that matter. But they don’t do that sort of thing any more—not too much. Sure, the US stole Kosovo from Serbia just to set up a huge NATO base there, but in general there has been a shift to controlling other countries through economic institutions—like the IMF, the WTO, and the World Bank. There has also been plenty of political subterfuge, assassinations and coups d’états, as explained by John Perkins in Confessions of an Economics Hit Man, or in Michael Hudson’s work. William Blum writes: “Since the end of the Second World War, the United States of America has…

1. Attempted to overthrow more than 50 governments, most of which were democratically elected.

 

2. Attempted to suppress a populist or nationalist movement in 20 countries.

 

3. Grossly interfered in democratic elections in at least 30 countries.

 

4. Dropped bombs on the people of more than 30 countries.

 

5. Attempted to assassinate more than 50 foreign leaders.”

Only a few of these actions—such as Iran in 1953, Guatemala in 1954, Nicaragua in the 1980’s, Ukraine 2014, etc.—are well known in the US. Now here is the key point: all of this “democracy-building” requires the US to have plenty of foreign military bases. Much of the military is outsourced, so there is no need for consent of the governed any more—just their tax money. Marching in the streets in protest is a complete waste of time. Millions of people marched against the Iraq War in 2003. Did it make any difference? Secretary of State Alexander Haig remarked during a peace march in the 1980’s: “Let them protest all they want as long as they pay their taxes”; Kissinger explained that “Soldiers are dumb, stupid animals for the conduct of foreign policy”; and CIA director William Casey made sure the US public remains completely in the dark with his famous dictum, “We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false.” (This is from his first staff meeting in 1981; it’s not a secret.) The US is completely open about its desire to subjugate the entire world—if this weren't already obvious from its behavior.
 

Pentagon Base Structure Report

And so, maintaining US hegemony requires an empire of bases. How many bases? Every year the Pentagon publishes a “Base Structure Report,” which lists all the property of the military including land, buildings and other infrastructure. The latest Pentagon Base Structure report lists 4169 domestic military bases, 110 in US territories, and 576 in foreign countries, for a total of 4855. But it turns out to leave out a lot: Nick Turse of TomDispatch calculated that in 2011 the number of foreign military bases was closer to 1075.  But even though a lot is left out of the Pentagon report, it is still a good data source for us to use because, for the purpose of calculating our estimate, all we are interested in is trends, not absolute numbers. Trends require that data from year to year be reported consistently, and the Pentagon appears to be very consistent in what it reports and what it keeps secret from one year to the next. So this is a very good source by which to measure trends.

Since the US public is completely in the dark, zombified and terrified by the mass media and traumatized by psy-ops like 9/11, the empire will have to collapse on its own, without their help. I’m sorry to say this, but the American sheeple are not going to rise up and help it collapse. But when will it collapse on its own? Do we all want to know when? Ok, here goes...
 

Peak Empire

Total US Military acreage peaked in 2007 at 32,408,262 acres, and has been declining ever since, including a precipitous drop in 2014.  

This curve of military acreage follows peak oil and peak empire theory generally quite well. I haven’t done the curve-fitting exercise, but it looks a bit like a Hubbert curve from peak oil theory. The important point is, according to total acreage the US empire has already peaked and is in decline. Note that global conventional crude oil production peaked at around the same time; you may consider that a pure coincidence if you wish.
 

 

Looking at the data from 2003-2014, we see shows a bit more detail, including a sharp downturn in 2014.

The drop in total bases in 2006 and 2007 seems like a bit of an anomaly, but the trend in acreage follows the peak theory.

What is even more noteworthy is the decline in foreign military bases and acreage. The US may still have control of its domestic and territorial bases, but it has suffered huge losses of foreign military bases and acreage. Since reaching “peak foreign military bases” in 2004, the US now has just 64% of them—a loss of over a third in a decade! In the case of acreage the US retains 69% of its peak acreage in 2006, so it has lost 31% of its foreign military acreage—also close to a third. If you want to guess at what's behind these numbers, you might want to look at them as the fallout from disastrous US foreign policy, as described by Dmitry in his article, “How to start a war and lose an empire.” Perhaps the people to whom we are bringing “freedom and democracy” are getting sick of being occupied and murdered? But, whatever the explanation, the trend is unmistakable.

But we still haven’t addressed Tainter's central thesis of diminishing returns on empire.  Ok, let's do that next next.
 

I previously showed military acreage divided by military spending declining since 1991 in constant 2008 dollars.

Bringing this up to date in constant 2014 dollars, we see that return on spending leveled off in 2010, but in 2014 the trend of decreasing returns on spending has resumed.
 

At the same time, US Government debt, which fuels much of this military spending, continues to climb at a steady rate, and the military acreage/debt ratio shows negative returns on debt.

That is, the empire is getting negative returns in military acreage from increasing its debt burden. In their prime, empires are massively profitable ventures. But when the returns on government spending, debt and military spending all turn negative—that is when we enter the realm of diminishing returns on empire—that, according to Tainter's theory, sets them on a trajectory that leads directly to collapse.

The collapse does not have to be precipitous. It could be gradual, theoretically. But the US economy is fragile: it depends on international finance to continue rolling over existing debt while taking on ever more debt. This amounts to depending on the kindness of strangers—who aren't in a particularly kind mood. To wit: numerous countries, with Russia, China, India, Brazil and South Africa leading the way, are entering into bilateral currency agreements to avoid using the US dollar and, in so doing, to avoid having to pay tribute to the US. Just like Rome, the US empire is being attacked all over the world by “barbarians,” except the modern barbarians are armed with internet servers, laptops and smartphones. And just like Rome, the empire is busy spending billions on defending its fringes while allowing everything on the home front to fall apart from malign neglect.

Meanwhile, the US has been struggling to avoid a financial panic through lies and distortions. The US Federal Reserve has been printing $1 trillion a year just to keep US banks solvent, while selling naked shorts on gold in order to suppress the price of gold and to protect the value of the US dollar by (see Paul Craig Roberts for evidence). In truth, US employment has not recovered since the financial panic and crash of 2008, and wages have actually gone down since then, but the US government publishes bogus economic data to cover this up (See John Williams' Shadow Stats for details). Meanwhile, there are signs that the militarized police state is getting ready to face open rebellion.
 

Two paths down

As we have shown, return on investment in empire has turned negative: the empire has to go further and further into debt just to continue shrinking its foreign presence by a third from its peak every decade. There are two ways out of this situation: quick and painful, or slow and even more painful.

The quick one is for the US to recognize the situation, cut its losses and abandon the project of empire, like the USSR did in 1989/90. But it must be understood that the threat of military action is what keeps countries around the world in line, forcing them to soak up US debt. Without this discipline, further money-printing will trigger hyperinflation, the financial house of cards on which the spending ability of the US government now rests will promptly pancake, and the US economy will shut down, just like in the USSR in the early 1990s.

 

The other option is the more likely one, since it doesn't require making any large course adjustments, which are unlikely in any case. (You see, even in its dying days the USSR had slightly better leadership than the USSA currently does, which was actually capable of making major decisions.) This option is to simply keep smiling and waving and borrowing and spending until the empire is all gone. This will take no more than two decades at the current rate. Note that this forecast is based on a straight-line projection that doesn't take into account any of the positive feedbacks that may hurry the process along. One positive feedback is that a smaller empire means more countries around the world thumbing their noses at the US, escaping from dollar hegemony, and making it harder for the US to continue sinking into debt at an ever faster rate. These positive feedbacks are likely to be highly nonlinear, and this makes their effect difficult to estimate.

But a moment may arrive well before empire is all gone when the suspension of disbelief that is required to keep US government finances from cratering ceases to be achievable—regardless of the level of propaganda, market distortion, or US officials smiling, waving and lying in front of television cameras. Thus, we have two estimates. The first estimate is objective and based on US government's own data: two decades or less. But we also have room for an estimate that is subjective yet bracketed: anywhere between later today and two decades (or less) from now.

Based on these estimates, you can be as objective or subjective as you like, but if you are “long empire,” holding dollar-denominated assets and such, and if your horizon extends beyond 2034 (or less), then there is a reasonably high likelihood that you are just being silly. Likewise, if you think that NATO will come to your defense more than a decade from now, you should start reconsidering your security arrangements now, because NATO will cease to be functional on the same time scale as the US empire. Some time ago Pres. Obama issued what for him sounded like a pretty good order: “Don't do stupid stuff.” You should probably try to follow this order too, and I am here to try to help you do so.

 

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Wed, 10/29/2014 - 20:47 | 5391953 Choomwagon Roof Hits
Choomwagon Roof Hits's picture

US military acreage was less than 1/3rd of today's total when the country was at its peak of economic and military power relative to other nations in the late 1950s...maybe that drop is a good thing? 

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 21:05 | 5391984 knukles
knukles's picture

Gotta account for the Free Shit Army too, ya' knows!

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 21:14 | 5392014 BKbroiler
BKbroiler's picture

Dmitry is the man, I just finished his book.  Strongly recommend.

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 21:21 | 5392033 freewolf7
freewolf7's picture

"if your horizon extends beyond 2034"
lol

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 22:03 | 5392165 froze25
froze25's picture

In the end it really does boil down to greed being the underlying cause of a persons or countries downfall. 

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 22:50 | 5392270 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

The same could be said for Texas, California

I hear this from Mexicans, hispanics whatever you call your damn selves. If you don't like the US, go south to your own country. Crickets are only heard at that point. Yes, the US has often screwed up. In the end, it is better than most other holes in the world. F&*k you libtards!

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 00:26 | 5392463 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

This is a really idiotic analysis given that the exponential rise in technology has rendered the use of "acreage" as an indicator of capability far less important, almost to the point of insignificance.

There's been more advancement in technological capacity in the last 10 years (many things the public isn't even aware of) than the prior 100 or maybe even 200 years.

Exponential technology growth rates leading to increased capabilities alone won't completely render an "acreage based analysis" completely arbitrary, but it certainly makes it a lot less relevant.

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 05:35 | 5392698 BorisTheBlade
BorisTheBlade's picture

For air superiority, acreage is misleading indeed. Some country in ME can safely be bombed from air strips in North America. However, air superiority only allows for destruction, not control. If one does not put the boots on the ground, he invites others to fill the vacuum. Case in point: Lybia, airstrikes and a limited use of special forces allowed to remove Ghaddaffi, but ensuing vacuum allowed for radicals to take power. Despite all the military advancements, the surest way to control the territory is to control it physically and that's what the Empires are ultimately about.

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 21:23 | 5392041 MeMadMax
MeMadMax's picture

What the author of this piss poor article intentionally or unintentionally left out is we have a rabid anti-american democratic president in office....

You can see all the graphs start dropping as soon as he assumes power...

 

 

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 22:14 | 5392180 BKbroiler
BKbroiler's picture

We want fewer american bases and "military acreage" domestically and overseas, not more.  Obama can't raise enough public support for a war to require it, lucky for us. 

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 22:40 | 5392247 August
August's picture

If Paul Ryan can't save Amurica, no one can  (:

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 23:35 | 5392377 Kprime
Kprime's picture

sorry, Paul can't save shit.  Blood, Death, destruction.  the only thing that can save US.

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 23:05 | 5392306 Sinnedi
Sinnedi's picture

Is this a joke because I'm not laughing at the fact that all presidents are related by a family of rule. 

 

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Aq0IhChPuYI

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 21:17 | 5392019 Choomwagon Roof Hits
Choomwagon Roof Hits's picture

Good point, I guess we're converting USA bases to FSA bases.  MIC and FSA, what a combo...two shitty tastes that taste shittier together!

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 22:08 | 5392181 Keyser
Keyser's picture

Yeah, but who is going to accept the shite-dollar outside the borders? 

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 00:50 | 5392503 Seek_Truth
Seek_Truth's picture

The total collapse of the united states Empire begins next spring Daniel chapter 11 has been fulfilled Revelation chapters 12 through 16 is occurring as we speak there is no doubtt that the US Empire will, by the end of next year, 2015, this has been foretold for thousands of years it will occur just as prophesied in the Bible.

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 20:58 | 5391972 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

Many would argue that all of the above is simple self defense of an America under threat. These people will argue you into the ground to prove that all of our actions are innocent self defense moves, protecting Americans liberty.

I know for sure that countless millions of Americas believe that we are the innocents under attack by evil doers. And being exceptional also carrier the burden of rule, for the other's own good, we must rule, or bad guys will.

In a globalized world, America is spreading freedom, democracy and market capitalism. Or so we are told.

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 21:10 | 5392005 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Some would call it Imperialism; but most Americans don't know what that means.

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 21:51 | 5392122 max2205
max2205's picture

Used to be countries asked for help and mula .....

Now not so much

We should regroup and bring it all back for a few hundred years

And live in peace.

Fire 535 people to boot

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 07:18 | 5392785 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

the strangest thing about Imperialism and Empire is what it really means. In it's most neutral use: "out of many Nations". so, at it's simplest, "international"

seen this way, the whole article ought to be rewritten, exchanging Empire with Military Hegemon (conversely Financial Hegemon, but there, it's less clear cut)

the Empire is not the US, the Empire consists in the US and all the nations affected by it's Imperial System, in the same way as India was once part of the British Empire or Hungary was once part of the Austrian Empire

conversely, if you talk about the Dollar Hegemony, you ought to talk about the dollarzone. which is all that part of the world that uses the USD. China is, for example, part of the dollarzone. Why? Well, look at the humungus amounts of USTreasuries it owns

Yes, the "American" Empire is in truth a global empire with one military hegemon spending half of the military expenses of the world

Russia is currently part of this empire, otherwise it would not be spending dollars to keep the Ruble from falling down too much. so it's also part of the dollarzone

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 21:20 | 5392027 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

That old 'White Mans Burden' defence Jack ?

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 21:30 | 5392056 Reaper
Reaper's picture

They want to believe that their nation has good intentions. They've been trained by endless Superman, Captain America and other other imaginary heroes and myths that some god/destiny protects them and through them, the world. To rule the world with truth and justice in the American way is America's fanciful burden.
Trust and faith is such a soothing salve.

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 21:44 | 5392086 booboo
booboo's picture

Yes, we need a strong military to keep those ever important shippinl lanes open that carry the lifeblood of our economy flowing in those tankers   to...........china....... wait just a minute, I need to rethink my neocon argument. Be back in a minute

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 00:03 | 5392432 hedgiex
hedgiex's picture

YES ! Gone past the stage of repairing the Empire. What is left is for the 99% to rebuild a nation. (The 1% are globe trotting predators; they do not care about wastelands and hang on where there are still starving preys to gloat upon).

Rebuilding a nation is also dependent on foreign competitors with less aggressive DNAs. (You can't bet on it). The Competitors are likely to expedite the death process given the preys' dreams of exceptionalism egged on by Politicians and Bureaucrats.

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 01:12 | 5392532 Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

That used to be called the white man's burden.

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 21:01 | 5391977 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

USSR (Russian Federation) seems to be the most stable over time.

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 21:09 | 5392003 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Yeah I suppose so, outside of the stacks of bodies. I bet Ivan & Catherine were a real hoot to be around in the ole ballroom, just as long as you were on their "good side", leaving aside Stalin & Lenin.

For now ;-)

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 21:53 | 5392095 booboo
booboo's picture

meh, they could say the same thing about Lincoln, Wilson, FDR and Johnson Wilson, FDR and Johnson just murdered our boys overseas. Lincoln kept it at home with a cool million deaths

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 21:06 | 5391987 TVP
TVP's picture

If you like your empire, you can keep your empire...  We collapsed upon some folks.  

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 21:16 | 5392016 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Obama: "On all these issues, but particularly missile defence, this, this can be solved but it's important for him to give me space."

Medvedev: "Yeah, I understand. I understand your message about space. Space for you …"

Obama: "This is my last election.  After my election I have more flexibility."

Medvedev: "I understand. I will transmit this information to Vladimir."

All...caught on audio, in a candid moment, between old Komrades ;-)

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 21:09 | 5392001 t0mmyBerg
t0mmyBerg's picture

the answer is a couple of hundred years

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 21:10 | 5392008 franciscopendergrass
franciscopendergrass's picture

The decline of the USA coincides with WWII and a growing military.  Coincidence.  I think not.

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 21:12 | 5392011 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

This entire analysis hinges on the relationship between military acreage and power. I would need more convincing. I also wonder about the impact of drones.

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 21:25 | 5392042 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Drones are are hardly new, The Germans used them in WWII.

Boots are required on the ground to maintain an empire, so Orlovs yardstick is as good as any

other.

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 21:21 | 5392029 22winmag
22winmag's picture

Does the first chart show "hookers and crack" GDP or just regular GDP?

 

The definition of GDP changes like the direction of the wind.

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 21:27 | 5392053 talisman
talisman's picture

On a long enough time line, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero....... ZH

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 21:31 | 5392060 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

Those who look closely understand that it is not the 1% at the top stealing the icing off the cake, but the much smaller .1% or .01% that are skewing the numbers and overreaching.

I contend the biggest problem is the massive growth in crony capitalism and corruption in Washington. Much of this can be attributed to the ability of those in control "changing the rules" and positioning themselves to benefit at every corner. In our busy and complex world we have found it impossible to watch all the moving parts. More on how this leads to collapse in the article below.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/05/how-empires-collapse.html

 

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 21:33 | 5392064 jm
jm's picture

Peak stupid.

All you hoes praying for the destruction of the US, it will happen so slowly you won't even notice it. Or you'll be long dead waiting for it. What kind of morbid schadenfreude is this crap?

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 21:50 | 5392118 Radical Marijuana
Radical Marijuana's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?&v=UT_1r5ut78g

The Rise And The Fall Of The Bankster

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 21:59 | 5392148 jm
jm's picture

Your video is over an hour long. I just don't care that much, dude.

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 23:45 | 5392391 Radical Marijuana
Radical Marijuana's picture

Congratulations, jm, for demonstrating your point regarding "peak stupidity."

My view is that we going beyond "peak stupidity," because we are headed towards Peak Insanity. However, the ironic nature of that kind of problem is that no rational evidence or logical arguments makes any difference to systems based on backing up lies with violence, that therefore, we are necessarily headed towards manifesting Peak Insanities, primarily through debt insanities provoking death insanities.

My opinion is that the video I linked above is the classic work of reactionary revolutionaries, who provide some good historical analysis of the problems, which then collapses back to the bullshit of desperation to believe that there are some "solutions" which we can prepare for, such as hoarding silver to cope with the collapse of the dollar. However, my own view is that money is measurement backed by murder. Asserting that money should go back to being backed by commodities like silver on changes that to become the measurement of silver, backed by murder. The guys who produce videos like the one I linked above provide more than 90% good analysis of the nature of the problems, followed by irrational hopes for "solutions," which irrational hopes I share in my own ways ... since it is clear that guys like you, jm, are deliberately ignorant, and you greatly outnumber others in the general population, although not so preponderantly much in groups of readers of Zero Hedge.

I have carefully watched ALL the videos featured on this list collecting Excellent Videos on Money Systems. I have added the one I linked above to that list, and as well, most of the best of them have already been featured previously on Zero Hedge. However, guys like you jm, are perhaps paid trolls, or are deliberately ignorant. Which is which I am not able to currently judge, although Hanlon's Razor would recommend presuming you are deliberately ignorant, these days I tend towards presuming you are more probably a some sort of stupid troll, because it is more probable that some stupid troll would bother to comment, without any interest in becoming more educated about what they were commenting about.

Orlov has lived through experiencing the decline and fall of the USSR, and he has been applying that to attempt to predict the decline and fall of the "USSA." He basically states what many other Zero Hedge posters have quoted, namely that the decline and fall of empires follows what Ernest Heminway wrote in The Sun Also Rises:

“How did you go bankrupt?"
Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.”

The decline and fall of Neolithic styles of civilization, or which the Anglo-American (Zionist) Empire was the greatest previous manifestation, will be gradual, until it happens more suddenly.

Your presumptions, jm, were that: "All you hoes praying for the destruction of the US, it will happen so slowly you won't even notice it. Or you'll be long dead waiting for it."

Since you appear to have such a pathetically short attention span, jm, here is a link to a video that is only 83 seconds long, which provides a good metaphorical image for what is going to happen to the USA, as the heart of the beast of the dominate Anglo-American (Zionist) Empire:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wvcGM6maGGk

Exploding iceberg in Antarctica!

Bit by bit, the people that control the people that control the government of the USA have been hollowing the system out. They appear to want to destroy the republic, and they are clearly succeeding in doing so. I can not think of anything but implausible series of political miracles that could change the path that we are on … therefore, there MUST come some time in the future when that video above is a good metaphor for what finally has to happen. However, the difference is that the collapse of the American economic system is on an astronomically amplified scale, with consequences that are quite impossible to imagine. (I also think that there are correlations between nature going nuts, at the same time as civilization goes crazy.)

We have very rapidly built a system of global electronic fiat money fraud, backed up by atomic weapons. The collapse of a system of that ASTRONOMICAL SIZE no longer fits within any kind of common sense comprehension. Rather, we are looking at the magnification of lies, backed by violence, by trillions of times, … until the collapse into chaos of such an incomprehensible system is a psychotic breakdown somewhere around quadrillions of times more insane than we can actually imagine. The magnitude of the triumph of the frauds, backed up with violence, that built the currently established systems, seems to have become the only thing keeping them going … Nobody can imagine what happens after the American Dollar and American Military became like flying unicorns and dragons, whose sheer intelligibility was the only thing keeping them in the air. We have outdone old Orwellian ideas by several orders of magnitude. Various groups, such as the secretive ESF, Exchange Stabilization Fund, appear to be behind the five biggest banks holding hundreds of trillions of units of whatever the hell their derivatives complexes represents, and so, have systematically stabilized a pyramid scheme house of cards to be able to built, until it went around the dark side of the moon.

Every “success” of the established systems made it possible for its huge lies to make and maintain FRAUD TO BE KING OF THE WORLD. The longer that the established systems “succeed” in their efforts to stabilize themselves, and to benefit from their ENFORCED FRAUDS, then the more unimaginably spectacular must be the final psychotic breakdowns, due to the fundamental insanity of global electronic fiat money frauds, backed by nothing but mass destruction weapons.

PEAK EMPIRE COLLAPSE WILL PROVOKE PEAK SOCIAL INSANITIES!

In that context, jm, I somewhat envy political idiots like you, who are able to maintain their attitudes of deliberate ignorance enough to not be able to understand the problems, because they do not want to. I have found that the more I learned, the worse it always got. Meanwhile, from a practical point of view, people like you, who maintain their willful blindness, are just as "prepared" as I actually am for the crazy collapse into chaos of the established systems, because there are actually no ways to really be prepared!

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 23:47 | 5392400 jm
jm's picture

your post is too long.  I don't care that much, dude.

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 23:50 | 5392404 Radical Marijuana
Radical Marijuana's picture

Again, jm, you prove that you are a deliberate idiot!

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 00:18 | 5392448 jm
jm's picture

Alright, alright.  Sorry to have some malicious fun at your expense.

Will civilization--and I measn this more in the sense of a fundamental change in contour more than anything--collapse?

Sure.  Everyone and everything dies in this way.  But even the collapse of the USSR that Orlov knows so weel didn't mean people ran into caves.  Some people made out, some didn't given the new rules of the game.

In my short stack of years, I've faced death twice, and I learmed something from it.  Every day is a gift.  Make it count.  Tomorrow will take care of itself.  These posts are the opposite of this:  Focus on worry, fear, hate about things that may never happen in your lifetime.  This is really sad.  Someone with a weedhead avatar like you should know better: you need good vibes for a good experience.  Otherwise you just eat nachos and go to sleep with the bag in your hand.

Finance is fun not because if the money.  It is a history laboratory where a man-made universe reinvents itself without centralized direction every 2-3 years.  Enjoy the fascination of this. not spend your days being pissed and/or afraid. 

 

 

 

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 23:32 | 5392366 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

 

Very interesting, pal.  It was like a compilation of zh green arrow comments.

But what was all that "'Vengeance is mine,' saith the LORD.  'I shall repay'" crap at the end?  I thought you didn't go in for that?

And "a new paradigm" is coming?

Did the Lord saith that to you?

Hmm. 

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 22:03 | 5392169 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

 

I'm guessing that you believe in the 'wall', but you don't believe in the 'handwriting.'

Is that close?

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 22:24 | 5392200 jm
jm's picture

The article just has that unmistakable "I'm angry, just hitting puberty, and listening to death metal down in the basement" feel to it, that's all.  Or perhaps Orlov is homesick for some privileged position in the old USSR and is bitterly projecting his pain on the perceived "arch-enemy".

Why should I try to intuit economic collapse when there are billions of moving parts to account for?

If anyone is so convinced of the immediacy of the United States' "death", go and be Amish. You'll be happier unplugged anyway.

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 23:06 | 5392308 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

The problem is not America, its a problem of people. The greater the concentration, the greater the damage.

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 00:32 | 5392474 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

Why should I try to intuit economic collapse 

There's no doubt, they go to war before there's an economic collapse.  But the US has never fought a nuclear power, and in spite of their bluster, doesn't really have a stomach for it.

US propaganda is ranting that Russia wants to recreate the old USSR.  The reality is that the US wants to recreate the Cold War as it was.  Not with China, Venezuela, Brazil, Iran, India, South Africa, etc. etc. on the Russian team.

How much longer can the EU midgets fall in lockstep behind the US/UK?  From this point on it can only get worse for them.

So if war is out  --  and Putin has mentioned the other 'N' word a few times and the 'N' word in the White House has two little girls  --  and the banksters won't consider an economic disaster which would cost them their power, then an accommodation with Russia and China is the obvious outcome.  And that should hold until peak oil or when the sun becomes a red giant.

This contretemps is only 17 months old, which is when Snowden showed up in Moscow.  Disagreements like it can take a lot longer to solve.

 

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 00:47 | 5392492 jm
jm's picture

The EU technoasses want a natgas pipeline from the middle east to Europe.  That explains the funding of ISIS and all the associate crap. Russia knows that this will destroy his cronies and dent his billions stolen.  Ergo, the and crooks don't want a natgas pipline running from the middle east to Europe.  That is your cold war in a nutshell. Of course no politician in EU or US has the guts to admit it.  

That's the whole truth and nothing but.  Nobody is pure.  The rest is bullshit for hate's sake, and fear for clicks.

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 02:00 | 5392584 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

 

There must be more at the end of your rainbow than just a pipeline from the middle east to europe.  

The neocons may be very stupid, but they're not very, very stupid. I read about Afghanistan in the early eighties and heard about a pipeline there then. Now I think that Afghanistan and Iraq are the two parts of a pincer movement for the eventual attack of Iran. 

A pipeline through Syria?  Just a false story put out to conceal the fact that the US foreign policy wants Assad out and Russia to lose an ally. 

My cold war heated up(?) when Obama demanded (that was the word I heard him use) that Putin return Snowden and Putin refused.  Part of me believes that Russia recruited Snowden in Hawaii.  

Since Snowden, vengeance is part of the cold war.

Syria, Arctic Sunrise, Deputy Ambassador Bordin roughed up, the neverending criticism of Russia's gay propaganda law, the threat of the boycott of Sochi which dovetails into the Maidan and MH17.

Another truth is this: " to thine own self be true, And it must follow, as the night the day, Thou canst not then be false to any man."

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 07:10 | 5392773 jm
jm's picture

So the natgas pipeline is a footnote toyou in a grander scheme that cordons off 70% of the wolrd's oil supply.  Ok, I respect our point of view. Shale anf fracking may make this an uneconomical activitiy but that is merely a quibble.

More calcuating heads generally prevail over the vengance crord, but there are used to good effect by them.  I've seen it get out of control but not often.

 

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 12:08 | 5393976 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

 

You may be right about the pipeline through Syria.  I wasn't paying much attention to Europe's gas needs in the early part of the 21st century.  

If you are right though, wasn't it just some pre-Snowden economic attack on Russia, who supplies Europe with gas and whose ally, Syria, would have  to undergo a regime change to lay the new pipeline?

And that begs the question why didn't Russia made a bigger deal about its defense treaty with Syria and give more visable military support to Assad's government, fighting the revolutionaries who would violently overthrow it?

 

Shale anf fracking may make this an uneconomical activitiy

Shale gas certainly does that.  But oil shale, until they find a way of producing it in situ, is pie in the sky.  You know that most of the easy to get shale oil is being drilled now, leaving 'the hard to get and to spend more money on' for later.

Shale oil wells produce less than 200 barrels a day.  And the wells last some where between 5 and 10 years.


The real problem with playing the vengeance card is that it turns off most of the population of Russia, leaving only paid CIA operatives there to do the protesting against the sitting government, ie, Vladimir Putin.


 

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 09:40 | 5393345 BouncyTheWonderbunni
BouncyTheWonderbunni's picture

Could not have said it better.

 

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 21:32 | 5392065 WTFUD
WTFUD's picture

The American Empire never existed. A handful of toadies ( mainly banksters ) in cahoots with lesser foreign toadies cornered the financial markets siphoning tax payer booty on the MIC and other useful bodies like NATO with the Fed BIS and the World Bank doing the shredding.

Fact is now Amurika is reduced to hiring Mercs on Pay As You Go.

It will soon be difficult for Amurika to maintain good terms with even NATO allies and VERY SOON it will be every CUNT for themselves if it isn't already.

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 21:32 | 5392066 dirtyfiles
dirtyfiles's picture

its going on now its transitional and as such is invisible

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 21:41 | 5392073 Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

The first chart is not adjusted for, let's see ... anything: size of territory, arable land, area under cultivation, size of economy, size of population, working-age population, slaves owned, barrels of oil produced.

I'm pretty sure China's population-to-% of world GDP is now and always was low relative to the British Empire's and America's, which were very high because of coal and oil. Then again, with only human and animal power, it lasted 4000 years. Sustainable.

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 22:00 | 5392150 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

We were never a good empire because we didn't want to take responsibility for our actions, so we just did the same things over and over again and expected a different result.

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 22:13 | 5392191 WTFUD
WTFUD's picture

With SICK entities like John McStain prancing around the world signing autographs with Al Nusra before flying into Europe to strong arm any governments who want to commit free enerprise(god forbid) with Russia, is it any wonder that any cunt with balls or half a brain will stand up and say ' HUD ON A MINUTE ?. . . .' ( in more colourful terms ).

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 22:29 | 5392216 robnume
robnume's picture

Wait...is that a military base in my backyard? No, not yet; I'll have to wait 'til I move back to San Diego. Then I really will have a military base in my backyard. I used to live in University City section of S.D., which is likely to be my choice again in the near future, but those crazy pilots from Miramar play over our houses. It's sudden and deafening. I can't wait to move from kewl No. CA! not.

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 22:43 | 5392250 smokescreen
smokescreen's picture

I think everyone is wrong...its more basic than that which is presented...we have reached the law of dimishing returns relative to economic growth as it pertains to population growth and size...in other words we cannot grow fast enough to maintain the large population necessary to fuel partitioned asset allocation. our economies only grow through ever growing consumption...it is unsustainable and unstable. I fear we have reached a peak...large increases in consumption will need large increases in the inputs we consume...to sustain the current global population in a relatively comfortable living standard will entail us consuming everthing availiable. you can see the model is stressed its apparent in the growing divergence of have and have nots.

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 05:37 | 5392700 The Blank Stare
The Blank Stare's picture

So Harry Harrison "Make Room! Make Room!" (1966) later "Soylent Green" wasn't so far off.

Modern politicians are nothing more than snake-oil salesmen peddling the same old bullshit that growth is good, and we idiots who follow them deserve what we get. Nothing wrong with running a business and making a profit but when we start bombing people for control of their resources and claiming exceptionalism at the same time, then down the toilet we go. The American empire will fall, hopefully sooner rather than later so we can start this matrix all over again hopefully with a more balance approach.

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 23:18 | 5392344 fiftybagger
fiftybagger's picture

1 Woe to the land shadowing with wings,

6 They shall be left together unto the fowls of the mountains, and to the beasts of the earth: and the fowls shall summer upon them, and all the beasts of the earth shall winter upon them.

Isaiah 18 King James Bible

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 23:30 | 5392368 JR
JR's picture

“Men without values are more than willing to trade their freedom for material benefits.” – M. Stanton Evans

In the name of “freedom” the neocons and neolibs and their paid agents have led America into disunity, cutthroat economics and perpetual war. And by so doing they have led Americans into bondage and a loss of their once commonly-held Christian values. “For it was values which once made America strong and informed it with purpose.”

“And if a house be divided against itself, that house cannot stand…”  

 “Freedom” without values is a divided people, a helpless people reliant on propaganda and power elites, a fearful people always “calculating…the troops, the tanks, the silos” to combat terrorism created by their bankrupted and problematic domestic and foreign policies.

As a Polish Pope once told the Poles, violence and warmongering was not the answer to combating communism. Instead they must rely on God and prayer which leads to unity in values, which leads to speaking the truth with conviction. And it was these elements combined that ultimately led the Poles to victory over communism.

On April 29th of this year Lech Walesa reiterated this message to an American delegation that came to an Acton Institute event on Freedom in Rome after the canonization, a delegation including Newt Gingrich, Chris Ruddy, Larry Kudlow and Dick Morris – all neocons.  Walesa said if they want to make a positive contribution to their country and the world, “they will begin establishing the third millennium basing ourselves on values.”

Walesa never mentioned the word “freedom” in his speech. Instead he said:

“And I wish you, and myself as well, will really take advantage of this beginning of the third millennium to establish the foundations of a future world based on values.”

Without values, “without some kind of agreed analysis”… with the ‘libertarian,’ or ‘classical liberal’ characteristic denial of “the existence of a God-centered moral order to which man should subordinate his will and reason,” wrote M. Stanton Evans, “a man without the interior armor of value has no defense against the pressures of his society. It is precisely the loss of value which has turned the ‘inner-directed’ citizen of the 19th century America into the ‘other directed’ automaton of today.”

Wrote Evans in “FREEDOM: A Conservative Case for Freedom”: 

“Man, Ortega wrote, ‘is a being forced by his nature to seek some higher authority. If he succeeds in finding it of himself, he is a superior man; if not, he is a mass-man, and must receive it from his superiors.’ To exist in community, men must harmonize their desires; some kind of general equilibrium has to prevail. Men who lose the ‘inner check,’ as Babbitt called it, must therefore submit to an outer one; they become mass men, ruled by their ‘superiors.’

“The erosion of value is doubly destructive. As it promotes statism by creating the need for an external force to order conflicting desires, it simultaneously weakens the individual’s ability to withstand the state. Men without values are more than willing to trade their freedom for material benefits. That the loss of moral constraint invites the rule of power is surely one of the best established facts of 20th-century history. Indeed, a number of quite unconservative witnesses have pointed out that the vigor of civilization is dependent on people who are guided by some internalized system of value, and who are thus capable of initiative of self-reliant behavior. This is the burden of David Riesman’s celebrated study, The Lonely Crowd (in which the terms ‘inner-directed’ and ‘other-directed’ were coined), and the message of such critics of modern society as Pitirim Sorokin, William H. Whyte, and Professor Richard LaPiere.”

Wed, 10/29/2014 - 23:36 | 5392384 tony bonn
tony bonn's picture

this article is seminal and an excellent development of chalmers' insights and research. the evil empire may be nearing its end, but it can wreak much damage on its way down, can't it dick (cheney)??

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 00:09 | 5392440 tc399
tc399's picture

Excellent. Ty has hit a home run and the immediate result is a plethora of comments saying it was a foul. They don't believe you, Ty. More the idiots, they.

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 04:30 | 5392673 smacker
smacker's picture

The GDP status of an empire is only one factor which affects the fate of an empire. The Chinese GDP now surpassing that of the US gives no clear picture of the timing of collapse of the US empire. And it won't happen overnight anyway.

We know that the US is the world's most militarised empire in history and we also know it has kick-started many wars/skirmishes around the world in past decades designed to keep itself in No.1 position. I see no reason why this will not continue for a considerable period.

Only when China has developed its own military power to a point where it can 'take on' the Pentagon will we possibly see some change. But Washington is not stupid. It has long stated its intention to 'take on' China before it becomes too powerful. By 2020-2025 is the timeframe I've heard. This is the WWIII that Washington is planning for. Doing its best to isolate and neutralise Russia along the way is seen by Washington as a pre-requisite.

Those in the world who share the aim of toppling Washington are closing ranks by way of undermining the USD's central role in global trade.

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 07:04 | 5392763 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

how much of China's GDP is itself an integral part of the empire? when an iPad is produced in China, how much of it's added value is Chinese, and how much is it globalized/imperial added value?

take a simple, dirt-cheap T-shirt: it travels the world some 20 times until it's delivered and sold. Designed in Australia, marketed through US channels, financed in London, it's components from everywhere, traveling in containers that pass regions and seas controlled and protected by the empire. It's the ultimate globalized, ergo imperial product

just a thought. You are a Briton, you ought to understand Imperial Systems of Free Trade, and I believe you do

sure, China might change the equation a bit. in the future. but how much, really? The Empire is not a pure national thing. It's an international system. The hegemonistic setup, for example, is not sooo clear cut: you own UK, together with the other Eyes is still an integral, second tier part, isn't it? The european continent is still an integral, third tier part

in fact, Russia is still a fourth tier part. Until recently, it helped the imperial logistic for Afghanistan

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 06:30 | 5392733 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

"It is not considered politically correct to annex other countries anymore. Witness the reaction to Russia taking back Crimea, even though its population has a right to self-determination, and voted 98% in favor of the idea."

wait a moment, this is an abject simplification

first, it is not "political correctness". It is more something like international consensus based on historic precedents among sovereigns (which some like to call international law, a dubious term imho)

Russia could have done it in a more gentlemanly fashion: it could have stated it's intent beforehand, it could have called in various international conferences, it could have proposed a deal

particularly Americans should not be taken aback to the concept of buying territories, for example, since the US bought big chunks of it's current national territory, for example the Louisiana Purchase or Alaska

Russia did nothing like this. "Green men" were in Crimea, a super-fast referendum was called in without international monitors being allowed, and an Annexation Act was passed

the difference between asking, discussing, proposing, trading, agreeing and... grabbing

and Putin is even right when he points to the fact that it wasn't Russia that tore the "Old World Order" rule book. but he is not being an angel by doing the same type of aggression

don't ever forget that the Crimean Tatars boycotted this "in-the-dark" referendum. I'm a big friend of referenda, but I always ask: when is the next one?

and to Russia: are you finished? or is there moar you want to... take without even talking about it?

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 10:22 | 5393527 rwe2late
rwe2late's picture

Ghordius

Your claim that "Russia could have done it in a more gentlemanly fashion"

is nonsense that is

based on your twisted  and fabricatied lie that Russia

"could have proposed a deal" (and what? did not according to your conveniently rewritten history?).

 

Well check again. Russia proposed and negotiated reasonable deals from just before the US-backed coup against Yanukovych

continuing up until the fragile end of conflict.

The obstacle to negotiated settlement was always the US and its NATO-IMF underlings who sought advantage by military violence.

Fri, 10/31/2014 - 21:25 | 5400455 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

did Yanukovych enter negotiations about... Crimea? no. in fact, nothing was even proposed or hinted at. there was military violence, a real war, and when the fog retreated Crimea was found... annexed

the reasonable proposals were about NatGas, remember? I don't claim full objectivity, but if you think I twisted and fabricated something I'd like to read what exactly

Sat, 11/01/2014 - 13:24 | 5401729 rwe2late
rwe2late's picture

Again, you are attempting to deceitfully mislead by claiming Yanukovych did not negotiate about Crimea.

Yanukovych agreed Feb 21 to reduced powers, stepping down and holding early elections.

http://www.nytimes.com/video/world/europe/100000002726675/accord-signed-...

 

That agreement was mediated by Russia, France, Germany, and Poland,

AND WOULD NOT HAVE INVOLVED ANY PARTITIONING OF UKRAINE,

so there was no need at that time to consider it.

 

But that agreement was not good enough for the US-CIA-Nuland backed extremists who seized power in a localized coup in Kiev, and then attempted to enforce their rule over other regions which did not support the coup.

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 06:48 | 5392748 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

"That is, the empire is getting negative returns in military acreage from increasing its debt burden."

well, the problem, as for most empires, is proper taxation

who is the big primary kind of profiteer from this empire? the quintessential American "Big Biz" MegaCorporation

the American People are only secondary profiteers of the empire

so the logical thing would be to fund the imperial expenses through taxation of the primary profiteers

instead, the US uses a complex system based on a global reserve currency and a national debt

the imperial pro: foreigners bear most of the expenses. the imperial contra: foreigners might... not play their designated part too well

the domestic pro: the American People get's "trickle down" effects. the domestic contra: all Americans that aren't directly profiting from the Imperial System have to content themselves with being put at the same level as the rest of the world, or getting subsidies of the diminuishing return kind

the real "stress-test" might come the very moment when Big Biz starts to leave completely the US, not only financially and production-wise, piecemeal

or the Empire softens, and becomes less hegemonistic, and so more based on international consensus, which then means sharing the "load" (cue in Kipling)

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 09:44 | 5393370 BouncyTheWonderbunni
BouncyTheWonderbunni's picture

I'm starting to think RT runs this place.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!