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Broken Stocks, Battered Bullion, & Bruised Crude

Tyler Durden's picture




 

If a broken window is good for the Keynesian economy, then today's broken market (worse than the 2013 Nasdaq blackout) was certainly good for stocks as exchanges broke left and right, futures volume exploded and S&P almost hit 2,000 all on the back of a 2-week old headline from Japan. Today's market was volatile... everywhere. Silver and gold were smashed lower (-2.2% & -4.1% on week); US Dollar was pumped higher (+0.5% on the week) but weakened after GDP; Treasury yields unch today, notably flatter on week (30Y unch - almost broke 3.00% today, 5Y +9bps); HY Credit wider in whippy range (+10bps on week). VIX tested to 14 but closed near 15. Stocks end mixed: Trannies -1.2% (worst in a week), Nasdaq unch, Dow +1.1% (V +145 of Dow's 220pts). Post-FOMC - Energy is down 1%, Utes/Healthcare +1.6%.

 

Despite broken markets and old headlines, the ramp to 2,000 failed... and stocks roundtripped on the breakage before a late meltup

Post-FOMC, Trannies are red...

 

Post-FOMC, Healthcare and Utilities are th ebig winners, Energy the losers...

 

Trannies weak today, Dow strong on Visa...

 

VIX ended under 15...

 

Credit remains notably less impressed with things this week than stocks...

 

Now where have we seen this decoupling before?

 

Treasury yields closed the day unchanged to very marginally higher - but notably flatter on the week... notable vol intraday around GDP

 

The USD extended its post-FOMC gains led by JPY weakness... not that after GDP data hit, USD sold off

 

Commodities were sold today with gold and silver clubbed like baby seals...

 

With silver down 5% post-FOMC and gold and crude down 2% (WTI around $81)

 

Charts:Bloomberg

 

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Thu, 10/30/2014 - 16:15 | 5395341 kliguy38
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Monster box ASE coming in one week.....thanx boyz

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 16:45 | 5395409 zeroheckler
zeroheckler's picture

Bang, bang, Maxwell's Silver Hammer !

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PZChsoIbCCI

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 23:29 | 5396824 bunzbunzbunz
bunzbunzbunz's picture

Let's see...lots of charts, and I'm on ZH, so all this must mean gold will go upz!!!! 

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 17:30 | 5395539 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

Back in the day, like last year, one Bitcoin could have bought you an ounce of Gold.

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 16:10 | 5395324 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

Why would anyone hold PMs when the dollar is clearly king? Its insanity. Luckily, Goldman Sachs are being very generous and willing to pay "market" prices for it.

 

PS Buy stawks.

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 16:19 | 5395352 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Short miners - the gift that keeps on giving.  Many were down close to 10% today, why be long the fragile ponzi fraud when you can participate in the decimation of an entire industry?

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 16:59 | 5395456 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

Who needs supply when paper is infinite and phyzz buyers can wait a decade for delivery? 

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 17:55 | 5395631 new game
new game's picture

like shorting exon when the gusher happened in the gulf. enuf easy money to fart on a lexus seat...

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 16:11 | 5395328 Oxygen
Oxygen's picture

Scary Halloween tomorrow?

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 16:19 | 5395354 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Yep, I am going as a Muppet, complete with I love GS button.

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 16:25 | 5395367 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

I'm going as Tim Cook in drag, with an I-pad, I-phone, I-Mac, and a tub of vaseline

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 17:40 | 5395576 Its Only Rock N Roll
Its Only Rock N Roll's picture

When is John Chambers coming out?

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 17:56 | 5395637 new game
new game's picture

got the lisp

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 16:13 | 5395335 matt1021_98
matt1021_98's picture

hard to believe any advice you guys suggest in these end-of-day reports.   I'm trying, but it's damn hard.   

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 16:16 | 5395346 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

I didn't catch the advice here.

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 16:48 | 5395421 GernB
GernB's picture

Me either.

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 16:56 | 5395447 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

just another muppet key stroke operative

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 23:32 | 5396830 bunzbunzbunz
bunzbunzbunz's picture

Are you guys kidding? Every chart I saw was obvious advice to BTFD. Dumb asses.

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 17:25 | 5395526 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

"end of day reports"? wtf? 

go back to motley fool, or watch cramer, he's still on every night I hear... 

you fucking tool

 

 

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 16:15 | 5395337 Philo Beddoe
Philo Beddoe's picture

What color pill do I have to take to get out of all this understanding I have? Fuck, life was easier being in the dark. Fuck enlightenment.....up the ass. 

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 16:18 | 5395351 cro_maat
cro_maat's picture

Any narcotic pill will do as long as it is sanctioned by the Cartel.

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 16:25 | 5395372 Pareto
Pareto's picture

I hear ya man.  Everything seems upside down from what I was taught and later understood to be prudent wealth management through savings and hard work.  Turns out that neither of those two things do fuck all for you.  you're just working and saving for the benefit of somebody else.  Fuck......Fucking awesome!  Sometimes I feel like maxing out all the credit cards I get in the mail: say 10.  times 50K each = $500K.  max out the cash advance.  max out all other credit cards for "stuff".  move out to the farm.  live off the land - swap feed for meat.  live prudently.  live right.

because living this shit show and confronting the insanity that is in your face EVERYDAY - Its almost impossible to go a day without starting to think that you're losing your mind.  Especially when it feels like everybody is getting free shit EXCEPT you - that you're doing something incredibly wrong and all the time.  this market has a way of making me feel really fucking stupid.

 

cheers

 

p

 

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 16:31 | 5395392 Philo Beddoe
Philo Beddoe's picture

Thanks, Pareto. Nice summation. I feel like the De Niro character in Awakenings. All I want is a couple fucking weeks of clarity. 

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 16:40 | 5395406 BrosephStiglitz
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Stay safe and stay healthy brother.  There are always opportunities for the intelligent and entrepreneurial.  The crooked system won't last forever and even if it lasts our entire lifetime, hopefully our children will be wiser for it.

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 16:51 | 5395427 GernB
GernB's picture

Best summary I heard today was from CNBC, where one of the regulars said "nothing has changed from a week ago when the market sold off and nothing was different two weeks before that when the market was at all time highs."

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 17:31 | 5395542 cro_maat
cro_maat's picture

I move closer to that scenario every day (minus the maxed credit cards :)

I have been eating venison and wild turkey since the beginning of bow season.

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 16:46 | 5395416 Groundhog Day
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I hear you Philo,  i wish i had taken the blue pill.  ignorance was bliss

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 21:54 | 5396486 Billy Shears
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Great post, small edit: "enlightenment".

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 16:16 | 5395340 Pareto
Pareto's picture

------------->  DJIA 20,000

------------->  DJIA 10,000

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 16:18 | 5395348 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

--------------> In 1 week

--------------> In 2 weeks

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 17:43 | 5395590 Its Only Rock N Roll
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how about both 20,000 & 10,000 in the span of 3 weeks?

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 16:21 | 5395343 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

correlation between bond yield and stocks... is fucking broken... ok?  this is like special ed school ... are we reaching you Mr. Floyd, hello?

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 16:17 | 5395345 FuzzyDunlop21
FuzzyDunlop21's picture

Ive joked for awhile that they will one day make it illegal to sell. But no, Im wrong. They will make it impossible to sell.

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 16:19 | 5395353 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

if bullion is battered why is 25 tons / month still leaving GLD?

good question Mr LVP, good question...

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 16:22 | 5395364 RaceToTheBottom
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Cause the lower the dollar value of paper gold goes, the lower the dollar amount they pay out when GLD implodes.

 

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 17:02 | 5395461 lasvegaspersona
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yup

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 17:35 | 5395552 cro_maat
cro_maat's picture

If you read the GLD ETF prospectus you will realize that only 5 major bullion banks can redeem gold from the GLD vaults. Cashflow from sheered sheep suckers investors has no effect on the amount of gold held in the vaults. Essentially JPM et al created a way to finance their inventory via the retail investor.

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 16:30 | 5395388 Al Huxley
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Because the boys at the bullion banks can short the paper, sell GLD, sell the physical to China and pocket the London/Shanghai spread, and use the proceeds to pad their own private physical gold stashes.  When GLD is down to around 400 tons I'll start to consider end-game approach.

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 17:03 | 5395464 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

400 is a  lot lower than my number...you could be correct but I'm already where I want to be ...so good luck!

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 17:20 | 5395507 Al Huxley
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I don't have any real rationale for 400, other than the number will be > 0, but is still a ways away.  I think clearly the 1180 'triple bottom' will not hold, and Goldman's already given the sanctioned low of 1050, although the short-side speculators might be able to overshoot that if they get enough momentum going.  I've come to terms with the fact,( based on experience and observation over the last 6 years especially) that the safest play is to acknowledge the crookedness of the game, and don't underestimate the power of the people who run the system and write the rules to have their way, don't expect 'justice' or 'fairness' and assume that there are no longer any brakes on the system (like regulators, acceptable limits of behavior, etc) and that everything will be pushed far further than seems possible.  Good luck to you as well.

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 18:04 | 5395666 magnetosphere
magnetosphere's picture

why don't you short gld?

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 23:28 | 5396822 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Because shorting the miners is way more profitable and safer.

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 16:23 | 5395365 gswifty
gswifty's picture

When I sold my TVIX at 16.76 and missed the peak at 20 I kicked myself for a week. It's only in retrospect that I knew I was right. Hold the faith, bros. A couple of years from now it won't matter whether you bought silver at 30, 25 or at todays bottom. It's all relative.

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 16:30 | 5395390 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Well...since 2007 you can say you've done better than a savings account.

Just not he past year...or four.

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 17:03 | 5395467 GernB
GernB's picture

I'm not sure it's the bottom yetm could go down close to $14 an ounce.

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 18:11 | 5395685 KittyStix
KittyStix's picture

I grabbed some Eagles today and if it goes to to $14 I will need a new vault.

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 16:29 | 5395385 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Meh. The recovery sucks ass and always has. Folks long commodities since Greenspan "blew up the world" have been on a kamikaze mission...and while they appear to have hit the Bunker Hill "she was built in Maine" and therefore was unsinkable. "ANY ATTACK ON THIS BATTLESTATION WOULD BE A USELESS GESTURE! WE HAVE THE MOST POWERFUL WEAPON IN THE UNIVERSE...I SAY WE USE IT!!" And indeed would appear Wall Street has deployed "the Internet weapon."

I say again however an energy boom inside the USA is inflationary.

Oil prices can and now it appears indeed will collapse...perhaps quite dramatically as the cost of building a battery powered anything is collapsing across the board. That won't collapse the industry in my view at all...just "expand the base" as the USSA SLOWLY drags itself out of the hell hole of the 90's.

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 17:17 | 5395488 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

diabledvet please fuck off with your non-sensical drivel... take your meds and give the computer back to the nice doctors...

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 16:50 | 5395425 starman
starman's picture

Smells like 1929 to me!

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 17:16 | 5395498 economists_do_i...
economists_do_it_with_models's picture

You know the market is BROKEN on a day the DJIA gains +221, but VXX, UUP, and TLT are all *up* as well.

Healthcare & utilities leading the way.

Flight to quality theme is everywhere you look.

VIX exlposion right around the corner.

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 17:21 | 5395509 gswifty
gswifty's picture

True dat.

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 17:35 | 5395559 Irishcyclist
Irishcyclist's picture

God bless my naivete. There was a time when a share/stock price reflected the financial performance and operational performance of a company.

Apparently now those days are long gone

 

 

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 17:42 | 5395592 limacon
limacon's picture

https://www.academia.edu/9031355/The_Were-Sheeples_Almanac

Were-Sheeples .

You know .

The ones married to the Stepford wives .

 

Thu, 10/30/2014 - 22:29 | 5396599 Dre4dwolf
Dre4dwolf's picture

Fancy charts are meaningless at this point.

Market goes up no matter what.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!