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5 Things To Ponder: "Spooky" Things
Submitted by Lance Roberts of STA Wealth Management,
I love this time of year, in particular it is the festivities surrounding one of the biggest commercial shopping days of the year - Halloween. According to Wikipedia:
"Halloween, or Hallowe'en, is a contraction of "All Hallows' Evening",also known as Allhalloween, All Hallows' Eve, or All Saints' Eve, and is a yearly celebration observed in a number of countries on 31 October, the eve of the Western Christian feast of All Hallows' Day.
Halloween initiates the triduum of Allhallowtide, the time in the liturgical year dedicated to remembering the dead, including saints (hallows), martyrs, and all the faithful departed believers. Within Allhallowtide, the traditional focus of All Hallows' Eve revolves around the theme of using "humor and ridicule to confront the power of death."
According to many scholars, All Hallows' Eve is a Christianized feast initially influenced by Celtic harvest festivals, with possible pagan roots, particularly the Gaelic Samhain. Other scholars maintain that it originated independently of Samhain and has solely Christian roots."
However, most importantly, it is a great time to spend with family and friends, dress up in costumes and over indulge in the many "treats" that come along with the celebration.
I thoughts this weekend's reading list should maintain the focus of "scary" ponderances now that the Federal Reserve has ended their latest monetary iterations. So with that said, grab a Reese's or two from your kids treat bucket and enjoy this weekends "5 Things To Ponder."
1) Zombie Land, USA by Elizabeth MacDonald via Fox Business
"Historic bailouts have increased the number of corporate zombies living off of easy money, hindering restructurings and holding back the expansion of healthier companies, restructuring experts here and in the U.K. warn.
"Capital is not being recycled and reinvested, impeding the “creative destruction” process Austrian economist Joseph Schumpeter says is vital for any healthy economy. Executives at big accounting firms like Ernst & Young have also warned zombie companies are grabbing market share from healthy companies."
2) The Fed's Lack Of Conviction Is Warranted by Mohamed El-Erian via Bloomberg
"Fed officials welcomed the continued improvement in the economy, particularly signs that the underutilization of labor resources is gradually 'diminishing,' though only 'gradually' despite 'solid gains and a lower unemployment rate.' On the second element of its dual mandate -- stable inflation -- the central bankers acknowledged the fall in market measures of forward inflation but played down the risk of damaging deflation by also pointing to other metrics of inflationary expectations.
This apparent lack of conviction, while frustrating to many, is understandable and warranted.
Because it faces a historically unusual mix of cyclical, structural and longer-term issues, the behavior of the U.S. economy isn't easy to capture well with existing models, including those used by the central bank. The nation’s policy response has fallen well short of the “first best” given the constraints imposed by the political polarization in Congress on virtually every policy-making entity other that the Federal Reserve; and the central bank doesn't have sufficient instruments to compensate for this."
3) The $75 Trillion Spectre by Szu Ping Chag via The Telegraph
"Global shadow banking assets rose to a record $75 trillion (£46.5 trillion) last year, new analysis shows.
The value of risky investment products, mortgage-backed securities and other non-bank entities increased by $5 trillion to $75 trillion in 2013, according to the Financial Stability Board (FSB).
Shadow banking, which is not constrained by bank regulation, now represents about 25pc of total financial assets - or roughly half of the global banking system. It is also equivalent to 120pc of global gross domestic product (GDP)."
What could possibly go wrong?
4) The Truly Scary Picture Of American Wellbeing Since 1979 by J. Bradford Delong via Project Syndicate
"The story goes like this: Since 1979 – the peak of the last business cycle before the inauguration of Ronald Reagan as President – economic growth in the United States has been overwhelmingly a rich-only phenomenon. Real (inflation-adjusted) wages, incomes, and living standards for America’s poor and middle-class households are at best only trivially higher. While annual real GDP per capita has grown 72%, from $29,000 to $50,000 (in 2009 prices), almost all of this growth has gone to those who now occupy the highest tier of the US income distribution."
Also Read: For 90% Of American's There Has Been No Recovery and The Statistical Recovery Continues
5) Trick Or Treat - $65 Oil Is Coming by Derek Thompson via The Atlantic
"Gas prices are falling below $3 a gallon across the United States for two big reasons: (1) the world economy is growing slower than we hoped, and (2) global oil production is improving faster than we expected."
Also Read: How Long Can The Shale Boom Last by Nick Cunningham via ZeroHedge
Also Read: Houston We Have A Fracking Problem
BONUS GOODIE BAG:
We're Way Overdue For A Real Correction by Joe Calhoun via Alhambra Partners
"Investors seem to think that markets are binary, either rising or falling, bull or bear, but the market actually spends a lot of time doing neither. An old Wall Street adage says that tops are a process while bottoms are an event. When we think back about previous markets we often forget how long things take to happen. Looking back on a long term chart tends to compress the time frame and we remember things happening a lot faster than they actually did. Turning points in markets, despite the old saying, take time to happen. Bottoms are remembered to the month."
When You See It...Run by John Hussman via Hussman Funds
"The next several sessions could contain a significant further short-squeeze or a vertical collapse, and we have very little predictive basis for that distinction. Longer term, we continue to view present market conditions as among the most hostile in history, coupling rich valuations with market internals that remain unfavorable on historically reliable measures. So allow for any sort of action in the near term, but recognize that from a full-cycle perspective, we continue to view a 40-50% market loss as having very reasonable plausibility over the completion of this market cycle.
To reiterate what I wrote in June 2008, just before the market collapsed, “Again, falling interest rates, moderate valuations, and very strong market action early into the rebound are useful in separating sustainable advances (even sustainable bear-market rallies) from the fast, furious, prone-to-failure variety.” Those would still be among the primary considerations that would lead us to an optimistic or aggressive market outlook. As always, the strongest market return/risk profiles we identify are associated with a material retreat in valuations coupled with an early improvement in market action. We’ll take our evidence as it arrives."
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What is Hillary's face on her best night?
if she had a beer holder on the top of her head ... would you let her?
I like my beer cold.
Hillary is voting for Jeb Bush and is already throwing her inevitable nomination. The winner gets an albatross.
What is Hillary's face on her best night?
I don't know. I've never been able to see it because she's always sitting on it.
Ba dum, bum!
Cackling Witches Bitches
http://wizbangblog.com/images/2007/10/Hillary-Witch.jpg
10yr yield @ 4% in 2015
USD will decline
i'm keeping track
edit: those are Lance's calls ... not mine
John Oliver said Halloween accounted for 2.2B in sales for a 5B industry.
That seems like a lot of eggs in one basket.
Hedge fund billionaire Phil Falcone's haunted Upper East Side mansion for Halloween.
http://pagesix.com/2014/10/30/billionaire-phil-falcones-halloween-displa...
IMO that's not spooky. astounding, absurd yes, even traumatising.
but spooky?
gold to 5000, oil to 50, dow to 1000, usd to 0, bacon to 800 because I read ZH so Im a clever man
So clever you signed up for an account.
mmmm bacon
Ah Bacon the candy of all meats!
I've been saving this ALL week Bitchez.
Do you want to see something truly horrifying?
Meet the next TOTUS/POTUS of the Republic of Bananas.
I am not sure I should have +1'd you for that but you are correct, that is truly horrifying. I need a beer after that one.
You deserve a beer. I warned you. ;-)
I sent the link to my sister.LOL
Is she going to put a hit out on me? ;-)
That's not even cool...
OMG: Did she shave her chest before the photo?
-lololol
u r sexist
(or is it sexual ?)
I'd hit that.
S/
I just tried to sneak the 3 year old son one of those mini kit kat bars and like an idiot he ran and showed his mother who said NO and scolded me. It's 30 minutes until trick or treating starts so what is the fucking difference? Some days I don't understand. I snuck him into my office and gave him a Kit Kat in here anyway.;-)
But if you want spooky you can check my ledger on silver purchases since 2012. Ouch. That is pretty spooky. Back to the old same game, smash commodities, print money and say we are all wealthy....until we all starve.
Facebook to mine, sell user data on political issues to ABC, clickbait distraction site Buzzfeed
http://wtfrly.com/2014/10/31/facebook-mine-sell-user-data-political-issu...
Ok let's play 'name that candlestick that is on the Monthly SPX'. Up for it? And 'how many tmes in History has it occured?
Come up with a prize for yourself if you get it.