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Where Is The "Low Gas Price Spending Spree": Consumer Spending Tumbles At Fastest Rate Since October 2009
Goodbye GDP hopes: Consumer Spending tumbled 0.2% against expectations of growing 0.1%, dropping at the fastest pace since October 2009. This is the biggest miss since Jan 2014 - in the middle of the PolarVortex. Did it snow in September, and whatever happened to that spending spree that lower gas prices were supposed to lead to? The spending decline was driven by a tumble in spending on both non-durable ($8.1 billion) and mostly durable goods ($26.4 billion). Also, what happened to that surge in consumer confidence - guess broke Americans can't monetize being "confident" about their rising wages just yet.
Putting this number in context, this was the first decling in consumer spending in 8 months and just the third time there was a decline in the so-called (central bank) balance sheet recovery. Furthermore, as the PCE deflator printed at 1.4%, below the consensus 1.5% print, expect much more deflation to be exported out of Japan in the coming months leading to much confused consteration everywhere.
In other news, the personal saving rate rose once again, by a modest 0.2% to 5.6%. This was tied for the highest saving rate number since 2012.
And with that let the latest bout of downward GDP revisions begin.
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Consumers be buyin Nikkei and shit Bitchezz!!
Christmas 2014: When the Little People were thankful for the gift of a can of beans. Thanks, Keynesian Kooks!
We should just print more money and REALLY drop it from a helicopter.
I'd VOTE for that!
Turns out there's not a lot of disposable income for people working 29.5 hr/wk jobs.
Yet the unemployment rate is down and stocks are up.....so I don't see anything to worry about really.
Thus is just the start of long-term consumer dis-spending as consumers get the deferred bills they incurred from a now 6 year long debt spending spree curled by low interest rates at a time when their real incomes either stagnated or declined in real terms.
Time to repay the Reaper...err Piper.
Excuse me while I go make a payment on my Visa.
Deja Vu in Matrix.
We should just print a $10 trillion dollar death star and drop it from outer space on 33 Liberty
There, fixed it
Might work if we stopped handing it out to the Fed shareholders....and just gave it to the taxpayers.
brought to you by Carl's Jr.
It's the Fed's turn to play good cop Central Banker. I can't wait until Yellen gets her turn beating the citizen perp over the head with QE4+++
At this rate, I'm betting that the QE's go Fibonacci (which means QE5 is up next, followed by, 8, 13, etc.)
Just a hunch
While it is becoming clear the CB's are going full retard it will take some time before it works its way through to average Jane and Joe. I suspect Xmas 2014 will be far different from 2015.
"When the Little People were thankful for the gift of a can of beans"
Do you or I or anyone know how oats, & beans, & barley grow?
That knowledge might come in handy pretty soon.
I do and we grow them. Fuck the Fed. I can't wait for this shit storm to collapse. Ready to become king in my little neck of the woods. Already started psychological operations on my nearest neighbors.
Indeed we do, brother! A bean is a bean seed, so stock up on your favorite DRY beans. We have some unmalted barley to plant, but have not done so yet. Not sure about oats, maybe someone can chime in.
Wow, the rare Mother Goose reference on ZH.
Personally I prefer Green Eggs and Ham. Dr. Seuss dropped a lot of acid, is my guess.
Do you or I or anyone know how oats, & beans, & barley grow?
It starts with a seed. If you aint got those your screwed. Stock up on seed. Heirloom seeds to be sure. Keep them in your freezer till you need them but I would suggest you start practicing every year.
The good Dr. Seuss really was a trip, wasn't he.
I think the first book of his I saw was MacEligot's Pool. That was an eye opener for a kid.
Lady Gaga would not exist as we know her without the Doctor's inspiration.
Retard is such a mean word - may I suggest Drater (retard spelled backwards).
when my kids were teenagers, i could call them or them friends a drater. Kind of a secret language only our family knew. Their friends never knew.
I live in Houston. Everyone here gets a little nervous and scred when oil prices go down like this. We will take a $5 gas and a booming local economy in 2016 please.
But, but, but, it's the weather
no it was obola, we are way past that now
Whats the point of actual economic data anyway, QE or no QE the markets will go up because a central banker wants it to, despite it not being on his mandate.
Please stop the planet, I want to get out on the next stop...
Halloween came late this year
Tylers, just stop reporting any macro news. It doesn't even matter anymore...
Must not be counting all the consumer purchases of gold and silver!
data don't mattah
NO WAY Dow is at new highs.
Let the good times roll. Cigars, Hookers and Blow
AND dont Forget to VOTE DEMOCRAT
sarc
Let's get Obama to be president for life !!!!
Yeah, and the quarterly GDP yesterday was awesome man! Of course, the 0bola regime has re-jiggered how all the econ indicators are figured to make them easy to manipulate.)
Where's the consumers money going? In the fiscal year just ended US gov't tax revenues were a RECORD $3 trillion.
The line "A 10% jump in federal spending, mostly on Pentagon hardware, also bolstered growth. It was the biggest increase in federal spending since 2009, when the Obama administration put in place a huge economic stimulus package." says it all!
The economic recovery that the media and talking heads have been bantering around is a manipulated myth. A manipulated stock market distorted by recent economic policy hides and mask the real truth, in many ways it is ground zero in the war to convince us all is well.
Fact is if QE or the massive government deficit spending that props up our economy is removed it will fold like a cheap umbrella. Recent changes in how the GDP is figured , which boosted growth thus reducing the debt to growth ratio, and attempts to spin poor numbers regarding employment have been met with skepticism. More on this subject in the article below.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/10/myth-of-economic-recovery.html
I don't know about you Bruce, but these fuckers have me on the edge of capitulation.
For 6 years I expected the deflation, then the inflation. The FED managed to take the whole cycle hostage. And here we are. These bastards have me talking tio myself. Truly.
Yeah, and the quarterly GDP yesterday was awesome man! Of course, the 0bola regime has re-jiggered how all the econ indicators are figured to make them easy to manipulate.)
Where's the consumers money going? In the fiscal year just ended US gov't tax revenues were a RECORD $3 trillion.
I did not sleep well last night because I was afraid. I was haunted by fear and I found all the reassurances by Janet Yellen and the Federal Reserve are not helping.
Like the young boy in the movie years ago the spirits of those who once filled the world with life will not let me rest, in this case I'm haunted by dead businesses and not people. The article below concerns the cost and problems of buildings sitting vacant because of business failures. I have my finger on the pulse of small business and it is far from healthy.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/10/i-see-dead-businesses.html
no thanks on the cigars... I quit smoking... it's not good for ya...
BUT I'LL HAVE TWICE AS MUCH BLOW AND HOOKERS PLEASE!!!!
Slick Willie will take all the cigars from you quitters.
A little dip in the old honey hole wouldn't be a bad thing either.
Considering the falling average wage, gas prices have to fall much-much lower to get people to start buying their cheap chinese made electronics...speaking of which iPoon sales should help Oct print.
It just proves consumers are all racists.
Seriously though, last night I was talking with the servers at a local restaurant that serves awesome local seafood. They all told me that their friends who work in other restaurants are noticing the slowdown in business too. I know my grocery bills have nearly doubled the past 4 years which works out to 18% a year food inflation for me.
I can go out to eat at a casual dining place for not much more than buying my food at the grocery store these days and then cooking it myself. I think this rampant food inflation leaves these racist consumers with very little to spend after buying that $300 cart of groceries each week.
I purchase my own health insurance, and I just got my renewal notice from BlueCross BlueShield informing me that my premiums will go up 12.44% in 2015. This comes after a 9.7% premium increase between 2013 and 2014. I have had this particular plan for ~5 years and have never filed a single claim. Lovely...
FUBAR.
The grocery store is just a shocking experience now - chicken, beef, veggies etc. have just gone to the moon. When my wife travels, I do the shopping: it's eye-popping and all of you should go every so often just to experience it.
And of course most people are paying much higher premiums for healthcare. But beyond this, everyone's insurance co-pays have gone up and re-imbursement timing is much longer. So they have less cash flow.
It ain't rocket science.
Any "savings" by lower gas prices is being eaten by the inflation on everything else thanks to the policies of the crooks at The Fed.
But...but...butt...Bloomturd headline says it was "unexpected"!
15 handle on silver today, gold under $1,200 the central banks are winning this one..... for now.
Those guys don't like to pay retail.
Follow the real money.
Does Germany have it's gold back yet?
Explostion at "Radio France" in Paris
Police have set up a security perimeter around the Radio France headquarters in Paris as authorities respond to fire - @radiofrance
Heavy smoke comes out of Radio France building in Paris as authorities respond to blaze -
Building burns
latest:
http://tersee.com/#!q=radio+france&t=text
Was there any doubt the markets would be at all-time highs and gas prices would drop like a rock right before the election that may push the Repubs to control both chambers? It really is comical.
Absolutely. It's a timed event.
In celebration I grabbed some cheap ass silver this AM to commemorate the event.
Remember just before the elections in 2004 when Goldman adjusted its Commodity Index - dumping oil for no apparent reason?...All the funds had to adjust accordingly, and oil tanked.
Almost two years ago during a television interview on Bloomberg, Harvard economist Steven Roach put a retail sales consultant in her place who was crowing about strong retail growth. Roach pointed out that after discounting for inflation growth in retail sales compared to past years is mostly an illusion.
I wish Roach had gone to the next step and pointed out that what little growth does exist is built on a foundation of demand from huge government deficit spending. To make things worse the government has been forced to borrow much of that money. The article below delves deeper into this subject.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/09/consumers-are-facing-protracted-weakness.html
Dafuq?!?
They had the 4 and the 1 backwards previously. It was like...oh shit dude..thats backwards.
THANKS TO THOSE 10 DOLLARS SAVED FROM LOWER GAS PRICES,
I'VE BOUGHT A JETSKI, 2 SMART TELEVISIONS AND TOOK A 10 DAY VACATIONTRIP WITH THE FAMILY TO THE BAHAMA'S!!
10 dollars from the gas and 20000 dollars from visa that is...
ALL growth comes from debt and the only "sustainable" thing about it is if we never pay it back.
Its all a mess now...just. rotating. Mirrors..
As I said when QE3 started
It will get worse and worse and worse and worse
GASP! last month's consumer spending year-on-year gain was revised from 4.1% to 1.4%....
4.1% annual gain was revised to 1.4%...
lying just exploded to a whole new level...
When it gets serious, you have to lie!
This past week I have learned a lot about acceptance. I now accept the fact that economic fundamentals do not apply in any way. Everything is a farce and for that I will focus on my family. Bitching doesn't help, everything that has been taught about economic law should be tossed out. We don't even need decision makers. Just program a computer and let it lead the way straight to Hell.
I won't be posting like a used to because it does nothing beyond cathartic exercise. I wish you all luck. I hope the ship gets right, but I honestly don't see that happening.
Rebel out....
QUITTER !!!
/just kidding IR, same story here..
I don't blame you. It's like beating a dead horse. Nothing changes. Things have to get worse, before they ever get better. We now have beheadings and ebola. Is Nuclear winter coming up??? Take care.
Everybody I know who has two dimes to rub together thinks the ongoing Depression is about to take a nasty turn for the worse, so they're keeping some powder dry to live on when TSHTF. Those who feel secure in their ability to pay a few month's bills with what they've got in the mattress are buying down debt. Some with mortgages are paying a few months out into the future, and then paying extra to principal.
The true tip-off that the whole 2008 collapse was an inside job was how QE worked, and more and more people are finally figuring it out. If the Elites had been serious about fixing the economy, they would have spent the same exact amount of money, and given every American man, woman and child $40,000. That money would have gone to the banks, as Americans paid off their homes, cars, student loans, and credit cards. But that's not what happened. All that money went straight to the banks, in return for the banks' worthless speculative paper. That's the "tell." The Elites decided to save the banks, and keep the overwhelming consumer debt. Eat the cake and have it too. That's when they proved they couldn't care less about fixing the economy; the goal was to loot the bond market and the consumer. That, they have done. And by imposing all the various forms of "Austerity" to shift blame onto the middle class while cleaning out their pockets, they've made a sharp downturn and continuation of the Depression inevitable. As was the goal to begin with; every huge fortune was made either by looting a continent or by engineering an epic Depression.
The same effect would have been had by an open devaluaton. Huge inflation, and a reduction of debt.
Just bought another 3K rounds last night. www.bulkammo.com is having a great sale right now, not sure how long it lasts. Maybe prices will go lower with what I'm seeing in the economy, but how low can they really go? I'm gettin while the gettin is good!
You regulars talk a good game, but in the past twelve months how many of you have done the following:
Built a hugelkultur
Grew a crop from seeds from the prior harvest
Dug a swale system
Built a cistern
Built a root cellar
Canned or dried you food
Picked an apple from one of your trees
Made soap from wood ash and lard
Made charcoal for water purification
Harvested your own eggs
Killed an skinned an animal for fur
Know a chemist, nurse, and doc that you can trust.
Ranting and raving is one thing. But PM, bullets, band aids, and cans of beans will only take you marginally forward in the apocalypse you all claim to want. Stop bitching bitchez and start really preparing.
Awesome dude. I applaud your increased knowledge in survival basics.
But at a ratio of 10,000 to one or so of the rest of the hungry mouths to you, you still haven't much of a chance. It may have worked 100 years ago. But today, you'd have a better chance of eliminating all the ants in an acre of land than you will fending off the masses.
It's just math. Nothing personal.
There isn't that many people in two adjacent counties where I live in southern iowa. Good luck finding me and my clan unaware or unprepared when it goes down.
I've done all of these with the exception of kugelkultur and swale, because what the fuck are those.
German for "garden of wood". It is a raised bed that literally has logs in the bottom of it to absorb/release water and carbon/nitrogen. Once built they are self sustaining for 10-15 years. You contour your land with an a- frame technique to build a berm or dig to create a swale that either directs or holds water. If you search permaculture or hugelkultur you find great vids on the subject.
Ok interesting, i already do something similar to this. I'll check it out.
No, I played a whole bunch of golf instead.
Me too. 4 handicapper once a week during league season. Rest of the time out in god's country.....
Just wait til Obamacare hits the masses in a few weeks. It's going to be very painful. Insurance rates going higher. Deductibles going higher. Fine/tax without insurance going higher.
In 2015, the fee is $325 per adult or 2 percent of household income.
In 2016, the fee is $695 per adult or 2.5 percent of household income.
Ouch!
It's that fucking blizzard again. Damn you weather!
Consumer spending will rebound in October - but only if they include purchases of gold and silver!
Planting for winter greens. Harvest is in. Joined the FSA. FED on track pushing wealth to the top. is Connecticut, Greenwich fireproof?
Low gas price spending spree? You're kidding right? Saving $0.20/gal only amounts to about $3/week for the average person. Were they hoping we'd all run out and buy new electronics with that whopping $3 savings? SOOOO TIRED of hearing people talk about saving money on gas. I laugh when I see people drive across town to save a few cents. Stupid lemmings.
In my area, a 120-mile round trip commute is not uncommon. Many of the dipshits do it in trucks and SUVs that get 20MPG. SIX GALLONS OF GAS PER DAY! So more like three bucks a day. Of course, since the commute takes so long, that three dollars just goes to coffee anyway. Long Starbucks?
could be 12-15 mpg
trying to pay down debt accumulated for 6 years.
It actually snowed in Western CANADA this September, Z/H. And my
fishing & hunting buddy [Aboriginal Canadian] tells me that this coming winter is going to be colder than last winter. So, the Polar Vortex Theory
may be applicable here IMHO. Last winter was so cold that I stayed in most of the winter. The 'Polar Vortex' argument is a valid one.
lets put this in easy terms, and you come to your own conclusion.
we're living in a bizarro world, up is down, white, is black, on, and on.
the fed. can legally borrow, (print money), using your assets, (farm, house, car, bank accounts, savings, and retirement accounts), as colateral.
to put it in simpler terms, if you have any assets in the banking or financial system in america their truely not yours.
ask a lawyer, or financial planner when you deposit money in a bank, or financial institution in america, whos money is it now, if their honest, they'll tell you, it's the banks money, but they owe you, ask the same honest person if you have $250,000.00, (the limit on fdic ins.), in an insured savings acct., and there is another 2008 how much will you get back of your $250,000.00, and if he states anything other than 0%-15%, find another advisor.
another in your face clue has to do with your 401ks, the govt, has changed the rules on the mma's in your 401k's, (fees, and gates), you'll definetly need advise on these.
then there is the myra's, govt. states it just something their kicking around behind close doors, and it's put out a few public trial-balloons, just like o'bama-care, so that means legislation is ready to pass in the first days of the next crises, and before they open the bank doors again.
myra's are a complete confiscation of your 401k's, and put into treasury bonds, of course their govt. guarenteed.
in america the people are the govt., and we've allowed a handful of the richest people in the world, to rob all of americas, and americans assets, and have guarenteed it.
What is worse is that they smile for the photo op after they screw us one hundred ways to Sunday. The top 10% of the richest people in the world
view us all as a mark to be taken advantage of. Corporatists/fascists are only interested in market share because that is precisely their game plan.
One needs to think outside of market share with a critical mind's eye toward market health and balanced markets. Markets and participants are
living open systems of information that trade equitably in the normal course of events in business, but Government is by no means equitable
in their practices and they are, for all intents and purposes, a closed looped system that cannot theoretically remain in existence over time due to the third law of thermodynamics. Entropy will eventually catch up to the ruling corporatists like Warren Buffet, John Paulson, Bill Gates, et cetera. They can only declare that white is black and up is down for a certain amount of time before everyone figures it all out and it becomes end game zero sum. What puzzels myself is that the 1% have researchers and advisors that get paid quite a bit of money to see down the road so they don't get off track, and these advisors are not giving good advice IMHO.