Starting Off Strong: Goldman Slashes Q4 GDP Estimate From 3.0% To 2.2%

Between today's record high Italian unemployment, and the just announced Goldman slashing of its Q4 GDP forecast from a 3.0% standing estimate to a 2.2% tracking forecast, one can easily see why the S&P is going to hit 2050 early next week..

From Goldman Jan Hatzius:

BOTTOM LINE: Personal spending grew less than expected in September, and personal income also grew a bit less than expected.  The core PCE price index rose at a subdued rate, in line with expectations.  Separately, the employment cost index rose more than expected in Q3, pointing to slightly faster growth in compensation expenses.  We began our Q4 GDP tracking estimate at +2.2%.

Personal income grew 0.2% (vs. consensus +0.3%) in September.  Personal spending fell 0.2% (vs. consensus +0.1%), in part as a result of a decline in motor vehicle and parts sales (-5.3%).  As a result of income growing more quickly than spending, the saving rate moved up two-tenths to 5.6%.

We start our Q4 GDP tracking estimate at +2.2%, eight-tenths below our prior standing forecast.  The lower tracking estimate mainly reflects the larger-than-expected +0.7 percentage point contribution from defense spending to Q3 growth (which introduces risks for payback in Q4), the weaker-than-expected trajectory for consumer spending heading into the quarter apparent in today’s personal income and outlays report for September, and a slightly weaker assumption on net exports in light of the large net trade contribution in Q3, our global teams’ recent downgrades to rest-of-world growth forecasts and the recent appreciation of the US dollar.

Comments

[John Law Lives]

MOAR QE, please...

FUBARtoHELL.

[hedgeless_horseman]

Of course, we never read about estimates for the GDP Deflator, only GDP.

From Wikipedia:

In most systems of national accounts the GDP deflator measures the ratio of nominal (or current-price) GDP to the real (or chain volume) measure of GDP. The formula used to calculate the deflator is:

The nominal GDP of a given year is computed using that year's prices, while the real GDP of that year is computed using the base year's prices.

The formula implies that dividing the nominal GDP by the GDP deflator and multiplying it by 100 will give the real GDP, hence "deflating" the nominal GDP into a real measure.  

Can we manipulate Nominal GDP estimates to suit our political need?

Yes we can!

[Wild Theories]

base year? pfft, what's a base year? is that something that you overedumecated types cooks up with yer fancy words and fancy terms? /s

sarc off/

when was the last time anyone ever saw a base year? has anyone seen one?

[Bill of Rights]

Caption contest!

https://twitter.com/prchovanec/status/528184144942358529/photo/1

The End Of An Era: Is The US Petrodollar Under Threat?

[aliki]

how is it ur constantly allowed to change your "estimate" for the current year? shouldn't the rule be you make you estimate for the year in the beginning of the year and have to stick to it, make your estimate for the quarter before that quarter starts. i mean, would a bookie allow a gambler to change his bet at halftime when the team he is betting against has a 21-0 lead? (assuming he took the money-line & not given any spread)

funniest article ive come across all day. makes me thing blackrock is completely choking on all those houses they bought thining the "milliennials" now aren't projected to buy houses from blackrock they thought they were front-running when housing crashed; rather now this is their scheme to not get run-over:

Wall Street firm pushes for student loan forgiveness - CNNMoney
http://money.cnn.com/2014/10/31/news/economy/student-debt-forgiveness-wa...

[Dr. Engali]

Lol.... GDP numbers will be whatever the ministry of propaganda want them to be. Nothing more, nothing less. 

[Cognitive Dissonance]

And it appears they want less so they can get moar.........QE.

[WTFUD]

' also grew. .a bit less. . .' FUCK.
If this is the shit ambiguous double speak thrown out WE can be certain things are a LOT worse than we can even imagine. . .AND i have a great imagination (well at least when the bag of blow is reaching empty )

[Bell's 2 hearted]

no mention of holiday retail sales

if bad ... look for poor Q1

[Creepy A. Cracker]

Downgraded economy even with a miriad of government props and false numbers holding it "up." 

LET THE MARKET SKYROCKETING CONTINUE!!!

(Yesh...)

[undercover brother]

it's ok, yellen will save stocks.

[SheepDog-One]

OH the Goldman estimates....gee I'm on the edge of my seat and whatnot.

[J J Pettigrew]

You mean the govt pumped up some numbers BEFORE an election?

[Freedumb]

I remember how this works. So I guess in a few weeks it'll drop to 1.5, 1.0, 0.2, as they upwardly revise 2015 to compensate, let's say 3.5, 4.5, maybe we'll hit 6% GDP growth? Then I guess 2016 will have 9% growth and 2% unemployment, at which point QE4 will end and they will HAVE to begin QE5, because the Dow briefly dropped from 24000 to 23800 on a single day of trading.

[bid the soldier...]

Obama to expand Alien and Sedition Act.

 Congress quickly passed four laws in 1798 to make the United States more secure from alien (foreign) spies and domestic traitors. Most of these laws, however, were also intended to weaken Jefferson's Democratic-Republican Party.

The first law, the Naturalization Act, extended the time immigrants had to live in the United States to become citizens from five to 14 years. Since most immigrants favored the Republicans, delaying their citizenship would slow the growth of Jefferson's party.

The Alien Enemies Act provided that once war had been declared, all male citizens of an enemy nation could be arrested, detained, and deported. If war had broken out, this act could have expelled many of the estimated 25,000 French citizens then living in the United States. But the country did not go to war, and the law was never used.

The Alien Friends Act authorized the president to deport any non-citizen suspected of plotting against the government during either wartime or peacetime. This law could have resulted in the mass expulsion of new immigrants. The act was limited to two years, but no alien was ever deported under it.

The fourth law was the Sedition Act. Its provisions seemed directly aimed at those who spoke out against the Federalists.

Obama will ask Congress to add a fifth law to this venerable act.

the Criticism of Estimates, Figures, and Statistics Released by the Treasury and Federal Reserve Bank Act.

I know it's a mouthful to say, but you just better shut the fuck up if you know what's good for you.