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QE Added $9 Trillion In "Equity Wealth" Or 32% Of The Current S&P500 Level, JPMorgan Finds
Earlier this week the Fed's QE3 ended... and less than 48 hours later the Bank of Japan boosted its own bond (and stock) monetization program. The good news is that by now it is clear to everyone, including CNBC, that the world is so addicted to some form of global central bank liquidity injection that the mere thought of going without a monetary policy "flow" backstop can only last for a couple of days.
Why is that? That answer, by now, is also obvious: the "wealth effect", i.e., the rich getting richer and leading to wealth inequality that surpassed the levels of either the pre-Great Depression days, and according to some, the pre-French revolution.
However, until now it was virtually impossible to quantify the "wealth effect" channel courtesy of the Fed. Overnight, however, JPMorgan did the math, and we now know. Here is JPM's Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou with the explanation:
The decline in asset yields especially during QE3 created large wealth effects. Since the Fed's QE started at the end of 2008 the PE multiple of the S&P500 index (12-month forward) went up by five points, from 10.5 at the end of 2008 to 15.5 currently. This PE multiple expansion is responsible for around 650 index points or 32% of the current S&P500 index level. Extending that to the total stock of US corporate equities ($29tr currently), it implies an equity wealth boost of $9tr.
Actually according to many the current PE, when one strips away the non-GAAP gibberish of the second dot com bubble and those hundreds of billions in recurring, ordinary course of business "one-time, non-recurring" legal charges for America's criminal banks, is about 19, which means 9 points of S&P PE expansion, or about 1100 S&P points, which also means that virtually the entire increase since the lows of 2009 has been due to the Fed. Nuances aside, you get the message.
Similarly, the yield compression in property over the past few years also created large wealth effects. On our calculations the yield compression alone boosted US house prices by around 10% and US commercial property prices by around 20%. Applying this to total US housing universe of $22tr and a tradable US commercial property universe of $2.3tr, it implies a property wealth boost of around $2.5tr.
Indicatively, property is where the vast bulk of the "non-1%" wealth is located, suggesting that even its wealth channel itself has been abnormally levered toward those who own the vast majority of financial assets: less than 10% of the population.
Another way of showing this finding is with the Household Net Worth chart from the Fed's quarterly Flow of Funds report. In it we find that of the $13.6 trillion increase in household net worth from the last bubble peak in 2007, when households had an aggregative wealth of about $68 trillion (mostly in financial assets), through the most recent, Q2 $81.5 trillion, $11.5 trillion is due to the Fed.
Finally, we doubt this needs to be highlighted, but in case anyone is still confused who was the only beneficiary of this surge in financial-related "wealth", here it is again:
Household Net Worth Just Hit A Record High: Here Is Who Benefited
Since the end of the first quarter of 2009 -- when the stock market bottomed -- households' collective net worth has increased by $26.5 trillion. More than 75% of that increase -- $20.1 trillion -- reflects the change in market value of assets. Gains in the value of real estate assets account for $3.6 trillion of that increase, while gains in the value of financial assets account for the rest.
Of various classes of financial assets, equities held directly by households increased in value the most over the last six years, rising in value by $9.2 trillion. Today's Chart of the Day shows the cumulative gains in the market value of equities held directly by households.
Not that many households hold equities directly, however. (And it's important to remember that the household data in the Z.1 report includes holdings of hedge funds, private equity funds and personal trusts.) The Fed's 2013 Survey of Consumer Finances showed that just 13.8% of families held stocks directly in 2013, down from 17.9% in 2007 before the financial crisis. Our next chart shows the percentage of families with direct holdings of stocks by income percentile in each of the SCFs since 1989.

The share of all families holding stocks directly peaked in 2001, after the dot-com bubble. The share of families holdings stocks declined for most income percentiles from 2001 to 2013, even those families in the 90-100th income percentile.
Bottom line: the gains in net worth associated with holding stocks directly have been concentrated among a relatively small number of households.
* * *
We lay this out there just in case the Fed's Chairperson Janet Yellen is again "confused" in the not so near future about the source of America's record wealth inequality...
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"Bottom line: the gains in net worth associated with holding stocks directly have been concentrated among a relatively small number of households."
True, true, but then those household's will spend, and the rest of the econ...oh, wait.
None of them are relatively mine. My kin are po folk.
Fed PR spin.....Mission accomplished
QE didn't "add any equity wealth". In fact, it "stole" $9 trillion from the taxpayers which will be paid for not by direct taxation, but through the coming great inflation. Wealth transfer is all QE facilitates.
So in an honest system, S&P would be 1,372 or so right now?
Yeah, no shit. The whole system is designed to steal from the poor and give to the rich. Not just MOAR...but "MOAR FOR ME!!!!!"
Maybe we just didn't go far enough on the war effort. I don't know. But the "Reverse Robin Hood" has been in full effect ever since the hebes watched their precious Lehman Brothers blow sky high.
Hard to call that inflationary.
Now a soaring dollar and collapsing commodity prices are? Bwhahaha. Yeah, you stay long equities assholes.
Make sure you're levered to the hilt too just like the last time you Mighty Bailout Tycoons!
You're gonna get price wars now. Those private space ventures suddenly blowing up are not a surprise to me. The cost of "launching your load" into outer space is collapsing. All you need is to make it to the space station and "the solar system is yours." That's just a couple hundred miles away folks!
"So by creating trillions in more debt we're gonna solve the problem of Lehman." Really?
Gasoline prices are heading to a Bucky a gallon now assholes.
no ! iT STEALS BETWEEN $50 AND $100 billion TO SAVERS IN ANNUAL INTEREST in the greatest transfer of wealth in US history
All true, Johann, and it must really burn your baroque ass that Synchrony Financial, heavy into retail credit cards (and whose rate patterns will certainly not lag any inflation), is using your fine F-Major 2-Part Invention in their new commercials, I assume without your permission.
Makes you want to crack them over the head with a theorbo, the fiends !
You didn't build this recovery...
As soon as they stop printing it's S&P 666 here we come.
Media gunning for Scott Brown in New Hampshire with dirty tricks
http://tinyurl.com/ls4tzsq
who cares? they can print it in on day
Electronic "money" creation probably takes 10 seconds. The entire world doing this in the computer and internet age means a $quintillion can be created and distributed in nanoseconds.....think of a nuclear explosion involving monetary electrons.
I just mean that size of the fraud doesn't matter anymore, it's too big
Too Boo Koo!
kowalli
The Fed does NOT print money, Treasury does!
There is no treasure left to manage. It is the Debt department.
OC Sure
LMAO! That was pretty good.
...I get one every now and then ;-)
Electronic money comes from these people -
http://media.npr.org/assets/img/2010/08/26/fedphoto-aeb33c6988560ef553bf...
Fuck me ~ I always thot it was Willem DaFoe
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YcYEph9_7p8
Who cares who print?
Because when you will have to print, that will lead to hyperinflation.
And if you don’t, you’ll (the masses will) be facing deprivation.
Idiot. Explain how the masses face "deprivation" during a time of falling prices and the cost of living going down? Or, better yet, STFU and stop polluting the world with your lies.
“Intellectual dishonesty is the hallmark of the leadership of Austrian Economics. Nowhere is this more palpable than with their disingenuous, dishonest and destructive defense of deflation.” -- Anthony Migchels
nope-1004
Astounding lack of understanding for a 5 years and 11 weeks member of Zero Hedge.
Austrian (Deflation) Economics
Addresses manipulation of volume as the cause of the boom/bust cycle. But blames the State for this, instead of the Money Power.
Ignores the wealth transfer from poor to rich through interest and tries to explain it away as a normal free market price for money. Favors interest bearing Gold.
Modern Austrians want a free market for currencies, which is positive. They mistakenly claim Gold will prove to be best in such market. But Gresham’s Law predicts people will hoard gold and pay with paper. Clamors for deflation.
Deflation hurts debtors (90% of the population), as the value of debts and the interest payed over them increases in value.
Kills economic growth because people hoard cash instead of investing and consuming.
Deflation is a result of crashing demand, due to a contracting money supply. The associated declining prices are not a boon, but a symptom of a serious disease.
https://realcurrencies.wordpress.com/faux-economics/
Interest rates are lower during times of deflation. Inflation hurts the working class through high cost of living. They have no money to invest in assets that appreciate in value. Consumption is what caused all of this debt that the middle class owes. The wealthy will own most of those assets and debt.
My suggestion to you?
Go back modeling the body and forget the head.
Anthony Migchels, who wrote that communist bull, is a Marxist who advocates interest free money, or zero interest rates. You are quoting a deflationist claiming to prove your point that hyperinflation is beneficial. Except, he has no data to back up his claims. He's all hot air, as are you.
You are trolling from the government perspective of needing inflation, which produces higher taxes and will certainly pay your .gov wage. In a deflationary spiral, taxes decline and you become expendable as a .gov worker, and are out of a job.
http://australia4mpe.wordpress.com/refuting-anthony-migchels/
http://justice4germans.com/2013/09/25/debunking-anthony-migchels-concern...
From the above link:
By the way, Anthony Migchels’ article is virtually un-sourced. He merely adds some related links at the bottom and pretends that his diatribe is authoritative.
nope-1004
Your links add very little. They never addressed the "Usury" issue. Anyway, let the readers come up with their own conclusions.
But about your 2 links:
Your second link argues how Hitler financed his empire (Rothschild or Wall Street). Personally, I could care less about it.
Your first link “Mathematic Perfect Economy” just read the comments
So, I will leave you with these:
For your first link “Mathematic Perfect Economy”:
“I was in Washington for 18 years and never saw any projection of any of economist ever come true in 18 years. Their theories couldn’t even see the 2008 mess.” – Senator Alan Simpson
For your second (Hitler) link:
‘It was relatively easy to spot the lies, but it proved impossible to find out the truth.’" … Niall Ferguson indicates that greater and equal profits also were realised by the other Rothschild dynasties, Amschel Mayer Rothschild in Frankfurt.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rothschild_family#Family_overview
The keys:
To acquire wealth: Understand “Usury” that can be turned into debt (serfdom), inflation, hyperinflation, deflation and, depression.
To protect wealth: Move it into different locations, abroad.
I am surrently angry about it.
Arrowflinger
Sorry to say it, but you will only get angrier from here.
Can you really not edit a headline that says, "Surrent?" Really? I would like to share this piece with educated people. Care a little bit more already.
Ah, some Tyler fixed it.
Shit is happening so fast, not even the Tylers can keep up with it.
Editing is dead. Almost no one really gets it right. Most don't even spell check.
A few can write but don't bother to make the effort to step down the lingo to enlarge the pool that can understand the message.
Folks must get paid by the word.
The fastest way to prosperity and wealth is usually the most corrupt. And corruption thrives in a fascist, police state since no one can question any crimes committed by those in power. More than 2/3rds were opposed to Wall Street bailouts and they went ahead anyway. 93% want GMO labeling here and every country in Europe labels its GMO foods. But the serfs in the land of the free do not deserve to know what they are eating. Monsanto and your friendly congressman know best.
At least 6 million cases of mortgage fraud led to the financial crisis of 2008. But not a single arrest was made. The state has conferred immunity on banksters even as the prison population in America reaches the highest in this world by far - 740 per 100,000 (compared to 93 in Germany and 85 in France and 51 in Japan and 30 in India).
Jesus fucking christ what a spot on observation.
Our local stations bubbly blond news caster explained this morning to the fortunate viewers that the fed stimulus have saved murika and now that they saved us will further improve people's lifes by raising interest rates!?
Aaaaaaaaah! It actually hurts.
See what is in store for these classes :
https://www.academia.edu/9031355/The_Were-Sheeples_Almanac
I especially like the Casino-Currency idea.
If you don't spend , it randomly gets decreased .
See also http://andreswhy.blogspot.com/2013/11/creating-and-destroying-money_9208...
Easy come , but a lot of screaming when it goes .
I think 32% is too low by about 32%. Stock market should drop by approximately 64.5%.... Ballpark figures...
<--- Stocks begin to fall days after Midterms, (assuming R takes Senate).
<--- Stocks stay up into 2015
I upvoted you but I believe they'll start exhibiting programmed selling again within a week, NO MATTER WHO WINS. Yes, the Demos. are able to keep it up and keep stroking it for the elections; but after that no one will make the effort.
too bad people spend income and not "equity wealth"
not saying the rich won't spend more if wealthier ... just that is greatly outweighed by financical repression for the rest.
The rich i know no doubt have gotten wealthier the past few years, but have not noticed any change in consumption.
The richest person i know of in my hood (low 9 figures) still drives the same ride ... a chrysler minivan
Exactly; I nonly knew one millionaire who boiught a 400,000$ Maaserati. The rest of them drive old rusty pick-ups; one of them has a 1994 Ford Taurus. "As he says, "it's not broke!!". Most wealthy people don't really like to spend money. Unless it's on their particular fetish; like old jewelry, or paintings, or something.
"it's a big club, and you ain't in it!"
Every single DOW point above 11k is just digits on computers.
It means absolutely nothing and has zero relation with reality
ekm1
11K?
You're being too optimist. If you price US private and public debt properly, if you price US futures obligations properly, if you price declining income against rising debt properly, and if you if remove hedonics and substitutions from the GDP, I would be surprised if the Dow makes to 5K.
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/download_cpi?mode=text
How bout dem not so rich folk who is payin more for their shack and grub on da same or fewer pennies they make?
Excellent work Mr. Quince.
Bravo Sir!!!
//slow, soft golf clap reaching a thunderous boom in the back ground.
p/e 15.5? BALD-FACED FRAUD LIE! GAAP reported are p/e around 20, Shiller/Crestmont near 30, FKING PROPAGANDA LIARS
Your property belongs to the state; every Communist knows that. If savers try to “hoard” away their assets, they must be punished.
“But a more apt name would be ‘Throw granny under the bus,’” as Chris Martenson points out, “because the program boils down to taking from savers and fixed-income recipients and transferring that purchasing power to other entities.
“The cornerstone element of financial repression is negative real interest rates, of which the Federal Reserve is the prime architect and owner.
“From the start of the Fed’s post-crisis intervention through 2013, the total cost of these negative real interest rates was over $750 billion just to savers alone. The loss of income to fixed-income investments (such as bonds held in pensions and money markets) was even larger.
“It’s actually more appropriate to ask if the Federal Reserve is compatible with values rooted in our nation’s history.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-22/how-federal-reserve-purposely-attacking-savers
And while the bloated big bankers at the Fed trough who lost their shirts in 2008 deliberately are trolling for middle class savings, Gary D. Halbert in his Weekly E-Letter of May 13, 2014 reported that that whopping $758 billion in lost purchasing power by savers over the five years ended in 2013 “will almost certainly top $1 trillion by the time the Fed starts raising rates sometime next year.”
http://www.forecastsandtrends.com/printarticle.php/903/
to most people inflation is just like the weather...you can see it coming but no on really knows what causes it...
Just try to explain to someone right now the MOST LIKELY reason gasoline prices have suddenly dipped. Good luck with that.
JR - Good commentary. That is a lot of seed corn taken from savers. From that trillion mark it's going to take a decade before the economy feels promising again for most.
Back in 2008 when I used to comment of FreeRepublic I posted the cost to bailout the financial system was going to be $9 T. I only ever got a private email request once in several years using the site and it was an individual asking me how I came up that number.
I have had some prescient forecasts in the past and I am downhearted realizing what I mentioned first about another lost decade. There is some fun growth with the marginal utility of debt and fractional reserve lending in the boom. But is it worth it to losing an entire generation in the bust? FUCK NO.
With the Dow flying as high as an SR-71 Blackbird, you're burning fuel at a rate that will empty the tank in just a few hours. Lower the landing gear in time.
Raptors in action:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YWaosOaURfU
Well, it's nice to see the exact numbers but it doesn't change anything. The question is can they "print" to infinity? Some, now say yes, so long as we have a mixture of inflation in food and deflation in most everything else. Each central bank can now take turns creating wealth out of thin air. And it does work. The masses don't care about the 1% er's so long as their 401K's go up and up. This is the 'New Normal', and central banks have no choice anymore. Dow at 7500 would mean social unrest on a large scale. People are out buying everything they can get their hands on using Fed loose credit. i.e. look a Visa's latest earnings. The economy is about 75% consumer and 25% government. Any austerity or cutting back on entitlements, means chaos and the cities burn. I see no way the money creation ever stops. Any signs of weakness and it's QE 4,5 and 6. The Federal defict will go to $20T, then $25T, it doesn't matter. Most people don't even no what it means. Bears are in for a long tough haul fighting the central banks.
the business cycle has not been repealed
and not a thing Federal Reserve can do to change that fact
The upcoming recession will not be kind to the markets
If the Fed can't, the BOJ will.
Math won't let them print to infinity.
Temerity Trader - I agree nice to see exact numbers but do not agree on entitlements being cut. They already are. $50 a week in SNAP is now $40. Items covered under medicare and medicaid aren't being covered and the coverage will continue to decrease. Assets will decline during the phase of the depression but do not think you'll see Dow at 7,500. Maybe more like 14,000 in a black friday style crash. Cities won't burn, the wealthy that own assets will be effected disporportionately but the hit in confidence will be a create knock-off effects further slow hiring and wage growth in the middle and lower classes.
The money multiplying is just about a zero so rapid inflating of debt is useless and will only create more social angst further damaging confidence. I don't agree there will be QE4 and beyond. Inflating and direct taxing the debt away can happen over the next twenty years. Those are headwinds but not disasterous.
The disaster and most of the short-term pain already happened to the broader population. But as mentioned there will be a couple years more during the deflation stage of the bust now already beginning. The only silver lining is the decreased energy costs we're seeing and food prices finally stalling.
Good job Ben, I hope you get foreclosed one day on the house you can't refinance.
Number of global billionaires has doubled since the financial crisishttp://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/politics/number-of-global-billio...
The money’s going somewhere. As G. Edward Griffin says, it doesn’t go “into a lake somewhere.”
A Talk by G. Edward Griffin, author of The Creature from Jekyll Island (excerpt):
“You are led to the question of where is this river flowing? Where's it going? Get a picture of this that it's all going into a lake somewhere and maybe there's a dam and the wealth is building up and somewhere they're getting it all. Getting it no, they're spending it. They're not accumulating it at all. What are they spending it for? The answer may surprise you. They're not buying more yachts and mansions with this money, they've already got all of those they possibly want. In fact they got rid of the mansions on Jekyll Island a long time ago because they were bored with that. That's not it. When a person has all the wealth that you could possibly want for the material pleasures of life, what is left? Power. They are using this river of wealth to acquire power over you and me and our children.
“They are spending it to acquire control over the power centers of society. The power centers are those groups and institutions through which individuals live and act and rely on for their information. They are literally buying up the world but not the real estate and the hardware, they're buying control over the organizations, the groups and institutions that control people. In other words, to be specific, they are buying control over politicians, political parties, television networks, cable networks, newspapers, magazines, publishing houses, wire services, motion picture studios, universities, labor unions, church organizations, trade associations, tax-exempt foundations, multi-national corporations, boy scouts, girl scouts, you name it. Make your own list of organizations and you will find that this is where those people have been for many decades spending this river of wealth to acquire operational control particularly over those institutions and individuals, those organizations that represent opposition to themselves. That's a critical area for expenditure on their part.
“This process has gone on not only to a marked degree in America and in the other industrialized nations of the world, but it has gone on in the so-called third world or underdeveloped nations to such a degree that I would say the process is now complete. They own these countries already. Have you ever wondered what's going on there at the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank? Kind of an obscure operation isn't it? You don't read much about it except once in a while on the back page of the newspaper you find out that Congress at the insistence of the President authorized another $100 billion for the International Monetary Fund. And then the article tells you that this money will be used to make loans to underdeveloped nations or grants to them to raise their standard of living. Do you believe that? That's one of those appearances of the fourth kind if you ever saw one. If the money is to be used to raise the standard of living of these countries they're not doing a very good job of it because after all of these decades, after all of these hundreds of billions of dollars, you cannot point to one country that has had its standard of living raised one iota by that. In fact in most cases it's the other way around and that's not an accident because the money has not been used to raise the standard of living. The money does not go to the people in those countries. It goes to the politicians of those countries, to their governments and the money is designed and spent to strengthen their power structures, their ability to control their populations. They usually start off as inefficient dictatorships but by the time they get all this money from the IMF, they are now efficient dictatorships. They have a well-equipped army, a better bureaucracy, total control of their subjects. That's where the money's being spent.
“These countries have been purchased because the politicians in those countries are now totally addicted to this money. We talk about welfare families in America that are third and fourth generation welfare, they're on the dole forever, they cannot dream of anything else. The politicians in these countries are the same way and it's now second, third and in some cases fourth generation international welfare from the United Nations funding. They have no ideology--communism, socialism, capitalism, fascism, what difference does it make? where's the money? As long as they live well, they have their mansions, their yachts, their limousines, they go to New York to the UN and have their suites at the Waldorf-Astoria and that's all they care about.
“These countries have been purchased through this means and are now owned by this group at the UN and they're firmly in place in the new world order where they're just waiting for you and me to show up. That's the other side of this coin. Not only does this transfer of wealth from America to these countries not raise their standard of living but it does lower ours. That too, believe it or not, is part of the plan. Just waste, get rid of money, get rid of productive power to reduce our standard of living. A strong nation is not a candidate to surrender its sovereignty but a weak nation is. If America can be brought to her knees where she is struggling for survival, if people are hungry, if we have riots in our streets, then Americans could possibly be grateful for any assistance we could get from the UN. Those wonderful blue-helmeted peace-keeping forces could bring order back to our streets or international money, a new world money with purchasing power again might be welcomed by the unthinking, unknowing American public. That is what we're dealing with.
“What I'm trying to say is that the name of the game out there is not wealth, it is power.”
http://www.bigeye.com/griffin.htm
Your article backs Griffin after these several years with the proof: “According to Oxfam, the world’s rich are getting richer, leaving hundreds of millions of people facing a life ‘trapped in poverty’ as global ‘inequality spirals out of control.’”
JR - Another stellar commentary about purchasing power. I believe your my favorite commentator on this site. Concentrating the wealth into a golden calf is however, not sustainable. Where is the Roman Senate or Pharoah's of old?
But what this river of money in this Central Bank political system has done is ensure security for this generation and the next in a monarchy. A more free society won't be seen for a long, long time.
As for me, I'll be dialing for dollars to sell some money back from them into my pocket for my families own posterity. It beats just complaining about it being an unfair world every day. I educated and protested when I could. My son made me proud when he said "well Dad, at least you did something about it." I can die tomorrow with no regrets, I looked after my human brothers and sisters best I could. I'll still do some more but now have to huastle to use my business leverage to plan on retirement or join the poor. Martyrs can ill afford to give back to society. Wealth ha to be returned through conduits proven to work and I can add value in the process.
And in case anyone has not yet seen this, I guess it's ok in Israel to make jokes about the knowledge that it was Israel that pulled off 9/11.
Israeli artist Amos Biderman drew the cartoon that shows Netanyahu was the pilot of an airplane that hit the World Trade Center in New York on September 11, 2001.
Israel’s newspaper Haaretz published the controversial cartoon on Thursday.
http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2014/10/31/384238/new-cartoon-fuels-usisrael-tensions/
"The decline in asset yields especially during QE3 created large wealth effects."
large wealth transfer effects. With low rates, wealth is being transfered to the top .01%, from the people being financially repressed.
If you believe anything about Biblical "the end times" - then you are probably seeing these events unfolding as pretty convincing evidence that we are headed toward that 'end'. Will it be 5 more years to get there, 50 more years? 500 more years? Who knows. But it's definitely certain that we are a stupid species when it comes to managing our economies.
Bryan - I do believe the bible about "end times" but the way Christ framed it was "I am with you until the end of this age." That original language referred to Aeon. You know all those Christians with the fish symbol on there cars? Even my pastor didn't know what it meant.
That is the sign of Pisces in astrology. The age or Aeon of Aquarius or "bearer of the water of life" began in 2012. Look it up, these are tied into solar cycles which science knows effects all life on earth. I was an athiest and just studied science until I read the bible cover to cover and realized there was no way Christ had that kind of advanced scientific understanding. Same with Moses or other prophets.
People want to sell the "apocalypse". Fear sells. But the bible never says it is the end of the world. People ignore the part where it states "The tent of God is with mankind and will dwell with them forever."
I study all science once again, particularly particle physics. I have tested quantum tunneling and entanglement using a $500 computer. I have corridanates for the 4Th dimension, tunneling a word from here to 4D and back again. Google quantum entanglement, it's really neat stuff.
I have noted religions that proclaim life is eternal have a big correlation to higher maths. The how and why are important in origination and evolving (study of biology, chemistry and particle physics equally important) as much as stating belief in a god head.
We're nearing the end of our evolution and we will become energy. We're less than 100 years away maybe I should double that forecast based on human greed....
There will no more need for resource hoarding in that place or trying to hurry and squirl nuts away for old age. There will be new sets of evolutionary challenges in that place beyond my comprehension. I have gone deep enough, it is a financial blog after all and I am not here to make converts into any particular religion.
Interesting theories, Raging. I tend to lean toward the simplest answer though. God exists. He is somehow the creator of all we can perceive. He became a man called Jesus and revealed part of the plan for us. The plan includes reconciliation with God, and proclaiming this "good news" to everyone. God will return again some day to establish a "new heaven and a new earth", whatever that means.
@Raging Debate
I like the fact you covered a wide-range of subject knowledge in your reading.
But I have to stop with your timeline of 100 years or us humans even nearing the end of evolution.
as someone who reads all sorts of useful and wacky theories myself(it does not mean I believe or disbelieve any of it, I simply enjoy knowing shit for the sake of knowing shit), I need to point out something to you about the 'zodiac ages'
the zodiac 'ages' go in reverse zodiac fashion, The Pisces age was the first, the 'age of aquarius', which has just started, is only but the 2nd age.
there are 11 more ages to go yet... all up that's a good 10,000+ years away
and even then, that would just be the completion of the one cycle
btw, Christ(and all other major religions and their prophets) were all products and representations of the Pisces age, I did not read the bible in that much detail, but if Christ said and meant it that way, then the age he would be referring to would most certainly be the Pisces age, which has already ended, several years ago.
In other words JP Morgue and GoldSac had the FED bribe the Washington D.C. politicians so that the banks could prepare and then begin to kill Americans.
Just F'n great.
These guys are just mesmerized by numbers aren't they? It doesn't matter what the numbers mean, as long as they just keep getting bigger. They confuse price with value, and they no longer even remember how to properly assess the true value of anything. Just make the numbers go higher.
Like the guy from Spinal Tap who changes the numbers on his amplifier so it goes to 11. When asked how this really changes anything, he says now it's "One louder".
None of these guys has gotten any wealthier at this point. They're just 'one louder', that's all.
I don't think the FEDs have any option but to cut QE.
If they did have another option, I'm fairly certain
they'd take it!
I suspect, that they have already blown the US Gov'ts balance sheet.
There is NO MORE ROOM for bailouts which is why the taper and QE end
is in the cards. It won't be a straight cold turkey thing, ( expect some
weak kneed kicks at the can ) but the trend line must be to "taper"
if not outright shut down of FED intervention. Translation;
they've blown they're wad.
Not that that will stop 'em from just printing more cash, but
that may also be of limited value. They can't stop that, but
they can't let hard assets hyper inflate either... so even money
printing will continue... but be limited as well.
Cash is king???
QE to infinity is acceptable to the Infinitely Stupid, as long as the game is on, beer is in the fridge, and pizza is being delivered.
Yes, this is certainly true, but a couple of things. First, there is the idea that the lows in 2009 were unjustified panic, and that therefore a boost was needed just to restore a normal level of animal spirits, or whatever, so you might want to reduce that 1100 S&P points to maybe 800. Also, maybe the boost prevented a further unjustified panic that would have taken the S&P to zero. Yeah I know, but that was on the table, too.
Second, the dilution of the currency comprises a tax on the rich (it's a tax on everyone's financial capital in linear proportion to wealth), be they domestic billionaires or the Chinese government treasury. That's an excellent trick and brings in say two percent of the total debt of $17t, that's $340b per year! Finally, if expending $4.5t over five years has increased total wealth by $9t, well that's a pretty good ROI, and maybe some of it will even trickle down to the masses. In fact that $9t gets taxed and at 20% capital gains that's $1.8t to Treasury and again mostly from the rich.
By the time you net out all these second and third level effects the net total injected is a lot smaller than it looks. I'm sure the Fed has these models running on their desktops though they have apparently never published them.
Still there's a problem, the nominal debt continues to soar even if it has been monetized in all these indirect ways. At some point I suppose they have to reconcile Fed and Treasury and do what, just wipe out most of the national debt, just as the "nutballs" have been saying all along? That will be an interesting day! Hey, throw me some of those trillion dollar coins, will ya?
"At some point I suppose they have to reconcile Fed and Treasury and do what, just wipe out most of the national debt, just as the "nutballs" have been saying all along?"
I think that may be the plan in the end-game. But which country(s) will get to that point, I think, is a game of 'chicken' between the Central Banks. The game is "Currency Debasement Bingo" and Japan just called the next number. The first country to get BINGO gets to default on its currency, and the other countries left will buy it up. I think it's a giant world-wide consolidation of economies going on.
That JP Morgan study is flawed, because at the edn fo 2008 markets were depressed relative to even many companies book value. So while i would agree QE has perhaps added a few p/e I dont think one can take nakedly the difference in average P/E from when we were at the worst lows of 2008 and then just subtract from where we are now.
When the right 3rd party comes along and exposes this to the masses...it is going to be hell to pay. Think Ross Perot with an obvious cause! You can feel the coming crisis... No there hasn't been any period in USA that equal the unmitigated stealing. The robber barrons were at least producing something...wheter it was oil, steel, railroad, shipping..etc. The current group of criminals...just steal your money. Nothing else...they don't make anything, they don't do any service...other than to take your money in the bank, the markets, your commodities, your retirement account, your bonds...and they STEAL IT WITH WASHINGTONS BLESSING. The ax guys attacking the cops are going after the wrong people. In the 1920's there were attacks againsts the banks! Wall Street has gone FULL RETARD.