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Euro Suddenly Crashes On No News
Two weeks ago, this happened to the world's allegedly most liquid On The Run bond on no news, which subsequently sent the entire market plunging before James Bullard was forced to hint at QE4 and send the market into a short-selling spasm (and a Bank of Japan hyperinflationary Hail Mary) that has since seen it hit record highs.
Now, the "stability" of the world's (formerly) most liquid market has shifted to what used to be the most liquid FX pair, the EURUSD (as well as the EURJPY), which moments ago, on no new whatsoever - again - imploded, plunging to the weakest level since August 2012, on what appears to have been a massive 1.25 stop hunt.
One of these days, the V-shaped recovery that every BTFDer has grown to love and expect in every of these broken markets, be it equity, bond or FX, will not come. What happens then is unknown.
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Listen.
Crashes? I dunno.... I don't really. But this is "STUNNING".
Maybe someone big thinks the Swiss Gold Initiative is going to win. The Swiss would either have to buy 1500 tonnes of gold (that's a LOT, approximately 48 million oz *) or sell the Euro to have 20% of their reserves in Au.
If the vote counters don't rig the vote...
* That works out to some 6 oz / Swiss citizen: man, woman and child.
Gold treatment
Euro crashes =No news...
Dollar crashes=No Gold...
“What happens then is unknown.”
Is that where be dragons?
(I didn’t know cartographers in the middle ages spoke Ebonics.)
nothing to see here, ravens steelers are on, elcection day tuesday all is normal in america vote for your favorite democrat and republican i need to go take my anti anxiety medication
Another ZH 1% ' Crash'
ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
Another way to smash gold with out having to dump contracts. Dollar index looks just opposite.
Yup, FX jiggering, Gold smashing, ponzi pumping, cotton candy spinning.
There are no fundamentals nor currencies tied to anything other than fantasy.
I hope something useful happens, the anticipation is killing me.
Another ZH 1% 'Crash'
ZZZZZZZZZZZ
More like 10%...from 2.17 to 1.96 (.21/2.17 ~10%
That would have been on Oct 15. Today is Nov 2 in the mountain time zone. The EUR plunge doesn't hold a candle to what's happening to PMs...
I've read about the initiative, but I haven't seen the details. Do they need to take physical delivery?
Yes, they have to take physical delivery and it MUST be stored inside the country. It would be a pretty pointless initiative if it didn't. Good luck to them, should be fun to watch...
Good luck to all of us. That would be a game changer, and could partly explain the recent PM smack down. The CB's would want to send a message that PMs are volatile.
Two wrinkles though:
1) Maybe their .gov / CB would ignore or subvert the Initiative...
2) I read (elsewhere) that they could just cut the Euro reserves to reach 20% Au.
Ad 2) : SNB will not do that, 1.20 is for (more) than good
I think most Swiss would take your point 1) as... slander. But for the near term, there are two bigger wrinkles
3) most initiatives in Switzerland are... rejected. it's not one of those countries where people are allowed to amend their constitution once every twenty years. it's the most radical polity on earth, referenda are in the ballpark of twenty per year. And plenty of them get rejected
but more importantly, if it does go through...
4) the SNB would have 5 years time to follow up
and point 4) is the beauty. 5 years are such a long time, nowadays. by then the Swiss could vote again, or amend the initiative at least ten times
meanwhile, a pro-gold initiative is anti-USD. Swiss trade with the eurozone is of immense importance and volume for both Switzerland and the eurozone
just recently the Swiss economy minister is reminding Paris and Berlin that in terms of trade with them, Switzerland is bigger then... China
what does the SNB do, whenever it buys boatloads of EUR in order to defend the floor? it reallocates a substantial part to USD. what if it uses that reallocation for gold?
remember that it's the EURCHF cross that it wants to hold down, not the USDCHF, that one is of very minor importance for the Swiss industries
the unforeseen consequence of this initiative could be that the SNB could start to look like a out-of-control perpetuum mobile: buying EUR with fresh CHF, buying gold with EUR, appreciating because of the gold, rinse and repeat
Switzerland will probably be in the EU in 10 years anyway.
technical problems? my post triplicaded. deleted
technical problems? deleted
Why is everybody surprised? Martin Armstrong has been predicting the Euro to crash to parity with the dollar.
Mr. Armstrong throws a lot of spaghetti against the wall on a daily basis.
Sooner or later, some of it wills stick, and he can proclaim, "I called it to the day".
Take a look at his writings, and you can see his misses, as well as his hits, and draw your own conclusions.
Well said. It's quite the messy meal from Marty A. Between his comically self aggrandizing soft ball letters (allegedly from subs): "Dear Mr. Armstrong, I am simply amazed at your otherworldly genius", his grammatical lapses that would make a 5th grader wince, and his semi- coherent diatribes on pretty much any topic even remotely related to finance and economics, the ex-con never fails to impress.
#Someonespenttoomuchtimebehindbars
He calls them precisely to the 3.6525th day. LOL
While all us goldbugs might love it , it really makes no sense for a central bank to hold far more gold than what it needs. My guess is that the Swiss will realize this and vote no.
If the swiss like gold they should buy and hold their own...there is no reason to hold it collectively and screw up exports (as well as surrendering more power to the state.)
Is it possible that the Central Bank of DoChenRollingBearing is different than the Central Bank of lasvegaspersona?
:)
@LVP "My guess is that the Swiss will realize this and vote no."
But LVP, no offese but what swiss or american or other people know about monetary systems ?
who are the swiss people and what do they know? the vote of some waitress, bus driver, or stupido down the road will have the same weight as someone specializing on the issues.
While the vote is a good concept in principle I am not sure regular people know that much about monetary systems that they can have an opinion, let along voting for its future.
just a thought...
The people who created the system don't seem to understand much about it, so I don't think 'regular' people can do much more harm then they have.
THAT's precisely the problem with democrarcy : the greatest idiot has the same weight while balloting as the greatest genius. Just imagine what would happen if one would run a private company on a democratic basis ..... the bluecollars would outvote the management/white collar workers and vote for a wage increase of 10,000%. To start with.
Aah, but one person's idiot is another person's genius.
the bluecollars would outvote the management/white collar workers and vote for a wage increase of 10,000%. To start with.
Apparently not. The great Swiss would disagree with you on that. They want their masters to get as much as possible.
http://online.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702304011304579217863967104606
They will do both, Its in their DNA.
You know therein lies the problem. The Swiss central bank - like all central banks - have come to believe that they play an active role in the economy and must have valves to turn and buttons to push. That is what's wrong. The cost of capital should be determined by markets, not academics and wannabe politicians. That is what the SGI is - some of the Swiss wising up and attempting to force their CB out of the market manipulation game.
Six Ounces for every Swiss Man, Woman and Child?
If you take the 179,000 Metric Tonnes that the World Gold Council states which has been mined throughout Human History and divide that by the World's population...
That amounts to about 6/10ths ounce for every human being.
And they want reserves of Ten Times that amount?
Well then it is really good for the citizens of Switzerland, I'd say...Yeah. It is really good to be Swiss.
DoChen,
Or you can prevent people donating to the Swiss Gold Initiative...
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2014/10/30_P...
DavidC
It's all Bullshit!!!
It's stop hunting at it's finest - done in low liquidity periods over a weekend. This was outlined in the book 'Beat the Dealer' which talked about how the floor traders would deliberatley call each other up to ask 'where are your stops at?'
Then they would hammer the market around until they could take up your positions at a discount.
Bulltard needs to hint at QE for the Euro. The fed will buy trillions of Euros to prop it up. After all, it is only natural that markets only go up, not down.
Fingers crossed it doesn't happen and we finally see this shitshow through the end!
Belgium is embarassing enough I don't want to see the rest of Europe being the proxy fed mule carrying the bag of shit forward
Super Mario vs chin-pokemon time.
Any minor price fluctuation looks alarming if you remove the context.
Did the algos get wind of some ECB QE?
World is quitting the system and that has accelerated recently.
My view is that Congress is forced to tell the Fed to extinguish dollars. World is just walking out of the system in droves due to QE
Listen EKM1.
Inflation does the same thing. "extinguish dollars". But it does it more effectively by touching money "OUT" of circulation in savings and locked in investments.
You can't lock up reserves. They move from account to account.
Only the holder of reserves (other than the Fed or FedGov) can CHOOSE not to hoard them.
Only the Fed or FedGov can extinguish reserves. When Fed receives reserves (cash or digital cash) by selling bonds, they simply disappear. Fed is a blackhole of reserves
Why would the Fed listen to congress? The Fed owns everything - presidency, senate, judiciary (CLEARLY the JUDICIARY). WhyTF would congress have any say in what the Fed does? Fed would tell congress to shove it.
The Fed answers to no one in government. It is a self regulated, self righteous, self aggrandized, narcissistic POS.
Nobody gives an excrement about the Fed. Just a bunch of academics.
They do as told and collect salaries and speech fees
No. When I pay a bank loan credit and debt are both extinguished.
Reserves go THROUGH stocks, bonds etc.
They do not die.
When we pay a loan or debt with reserves (cash or digital cash), they still do not extinguish.
Commercial banks create 95-97% of reserves, but they CANNOT extinguish them. Economic expansion continuously creates reserves simultaneously via commercial bank intermediation.
Congress/Fed can create EXCESS RESERVES and extinguish them and it can extinguish reserves created by the commercial banks.
Listen EKM1.
Why not deflate their value into the reserve "BLACKHOLE".
Very effective, right mate?
Value is increased, not decreased if dollars die into a blackhole
Listen SON.
We both know that it's the dollars "VALUE" that we're discussing here. Now stay "FOCUSED" god damm it man!
unit of account
Dollar is the measuring stick
Can I use that same measuring stick to measure my penis?? Cause pretty soon my 5" erect penis will be 8" by this ruler.....
:-))))))))))))))))))))
That is why Pentagon will or already has forced the Fed to extinguished dollars.
World is abandoning it
Depends on the loan.
Paying fractional reserve bank loans extinguish both credit and debt. Other types of fully reserved loans just move credit from here to there and extinguish debt but not credit.
No, inflation just moves value from you to them. There are more dollars, each with lower value.
Money in savings is just an investment in a bank, the money has been spent. The cash itself is in circulation.
Money in investments has been spent. The cash itself is in circulation.
No news we know about
Exactly.
Tons of news for this actually. One is Sweden just lowering rates. As I said just a few weeks ago "the race to debase is on.!". So in that sense this is not news. Only Bulltard has done a 180.
Not that anyone is listening. The USA will continue to normalize. " Long General Motors pickup trucks. For under ten grand."
EUROPE = World's biggest geriatric petting zoo (h/t to Doug Casey)
Europe = World's largest outdoor museum
(author unknown to me)
and a fantastic museum it is, the art is amazing, the grounds are beautiful, the food is awesome, so are the women
That's Japan.
Theyre just trolling us.
God damn it! Somebody get these guys some fucking news! WE NEED MOAR NEWS!!!!
global warming. Are you relaxed now?
Bad HSBC PMI leak I suspect, putting more push on Draghi to get the germans to print.
"Beggar thy neighbor.". Right out of the Great Depression. China, Europe and Japan. The entire Russian economy is being held up by the RD-180.
Cost of spaceflight is collapsing.
so are the spaceflights
Round-robin QE to infinity.
Japan, Europe and then the US.
Devalue the currency to zero to reach the Keynesian promised land.
Correct.
House always wins when they make the rules...completely transitory.
As long a you can keep Vegas watered.
Things are changing. Got a feeling sooner or later the fatherland will say no, that's when this game speeds up.
Big bank in trouble or Euro QE whispers.
Of course "big bank in trouble" these days could even mean a central bank...
Gotta get a discount for those U.S. Christmas shoppers to keep the worlds factories going one more season.
Strong dollar/weak world.
Take advantage any way you can.
Chef's Father: ...and I yelled, I said, "What do you want from us, monster?" And the monster bent down, and said, "I need about tree-fitty."
[long pause]
Kyle: What's tree-fitty?
Chef's Father: Tree dollars, and fitty cents.
Chef's Mother: Tree-fitty.
Stan: He wanted money?
Chef's Father: That's right. I said, "I ain't givin' you no tree-fitty, you goddamn Loch Ness Monster! Get your own goddamn money!"
Chef's Mother: I gave him a dollar.
Chef's Father: She gave him a dollar.
Chef's Mother: I thought he'd go away if I gave him a dollar.
Chef's Father: Well, of course he's not gonna go away, Mary! You give him a dollar, he's gonna assume you got more!
You ain't buyin it either huh? ;-)
Recovery!
Obama and Yellen tomorrow.
BMW, AUDI, DAIMLER not taking the JPY move lying down. Who talks about US exports tomorrow?
Silver is taking a dive down .33 cents to 15.85.
If you still want to stack this is pretty good news.
Been buying silver since I read Ted Butler's book in 2001.
Never sold any precious except to exchange gold for silver and vicey versey.
Silver hit it's peak on my birthday at $50.
Made a big swap of silver for gold that day.
I am watching the gap now.
May be exchanging that same gold for silver soon.
Nice.
Selling before the news....
For months the major world currencies had traded in a narrow range as if held in limbo by some great force. This has allowed people to think we were on sound footing as central banks across the world continued to print and pump out money chasing the "ever elusive growth" that always appears to be just around the corner. Recently several major currencies made multi-year highs or lows depending on the match-up .
The Fed recently whacked the dollar down but for how long? Because of weak demand for goods and most of this freshly printed money flowing into intangible investments inflation has not been a major problem, but the seeds for its future growth have been planted everywhere. John Maynard Keynes said By a continuing process of inflation, government can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens.
While there are not many Bond Vigilantes there are a slew of Currency Vigilantes and they are ready to make their presence known. Weakness in the value of the Yen, Pound, and Euro must not go unnoticed. More on why this may be a signal that currency trading is about to get very wild in the article below. Please note, this may also be sending a signal that the whole system is unstable and the stock market could drop like a stone due to contagion.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/09/caution-alert-currencies-may-get-wild.html
Of course you know this is just lipstick on the $US.
I would call last week "When Trends Reemerge." There's a few things to note. First, the US equity markets responded to the FOMC with dip buying. That was before the BoJ madness. This is important because I don't think the end of QE is as important as the ZIRP environment. I am aware of the chart showing the correlation between QE and equity prices, however, the last two times QE ended was before the current bull market psychology became a force unto itself. So it COULD be different this time because it doesn't really matter what the price is, or what we're bidding on. We could be bidding on seashells. It's irrelevant. You buy the dip because you think there will be a greater fool to sell to later on. Bull market psychology. It's still alive. I don't think this bull market has to end until there is a real, persistent threat to the financial system, which, unfortunately is only a matter of time (cough, Japan, cough), but with no place else for the money to get a yield, it doesn't necessarily require Fed QE as fuel. ZIRP combined with the vicious short squeeze mentality makes it very hard for the short side to overcome the buying. Now when you add the BoJ madness, it's just more fuel for the fire. It is awfully extended, though, so I would think a pullback of some degree would be in order. Ideally, we'll get some kind of cup and handle on the ES. That would make it easier to buy. I can't buy this with the idea of holding it now. The most I would do is look to grab a few points on a day trade. I'm hoping for a pullback anywhere from 1970-1990 on the ES. It might not give it up and it's a bit of a game time decision based on what's happening with the reaction to the elections, ISM, and NFP, but the chart is straight up. The mistake I made was needing a few days off the week before last. What I should have done was use the 20-period EMA on the 4hr chart to trail a stop right up to FOMC. I was aware that it worked in the August pullback, and it would have worked again to keep me in this trade, but I needed to get away from electronics for a few days. This is the thing I'm working on the most as a trader. In a strong trend, if you have great trade location, you have to be willing to trail a stop and give up a little at the top, instead of selling into strength in attempt to avoid that. But who would have guessed we would literally go 10% straight up? That is insane. Last week was my best week of the year, but a lot of it is unrealized still. Once I saw the dollar jump after the FOMC announcement, I hammered the gld and slv puts I was in. I had to take 25% off on Fri out of principal. I know they're gonna keep falling, but how do you not take a little off? I'm working on it. I know nobody likes this, but they are going a lot lower. I tried to help. I don't know what to say now. If you missed the trade, you can't exactly chase it now. Go back and study how silver moves when it's downtrending. It usually breaks down out of a range in an impulsive move that eventually runs out of steam, then it tends to consolidate into a triangle-like sideways pattern that very often will tag the breakdown point before rolling back over. If you are lucky and it does that, it is a short. I believe silver is headed first to $13, then to $9. There will be entries along the way. You have to be patient and hope it lets you in. I personally believe the Fed will be doing more QE before they ever raise rates, so I think there's still hope down the road, but that's not on my radar yet. And in order to get to $9 I would think the Large Specs would have to get net short, which would put the Commercials net long. That would be an underlying positioning that would need to be unwound, so the more net short the Specs get, the higher it would unwind if given the right environment. I decided to make a blog. I'm not sure I'll get it done for a couple weeks, though, because I'm out of town the next two weekends and have a few loose ends to tie up. But I'm gonna work on it when I can. I'm planning to experiment with a much more scalable style of trading with the idea of maybe taking this to the next level. I'm not entirely sure I can trade like that, so it's an experiment. The way I trade now often involves very short term swing or day trades, or sometimes if I'm looking for a larger move I will take several small losses until I finally catch it, and sometimes I'll move in and out of a trade trying to sidestep even the smallest pullback, which sometimes leads to even more profit, and while it is psychologically satisfying to take some risk off the table and book profits, it isn't a duplicatable style, or a "max scalable" way to trade, so while it works for me, I want to see if I can plan out a trade to scale into over a price and time zone with a max loss that you add to when it becomes a winner. Essentially, it's a trend following strategy that is only limited by whatever the max size of that particular market is. Meaning, even the ES, which is insanely liquid, still has limits. And the way I currently trade is not a style that could ever scale even remotely close. But the way I have in mind is "max scalable," which btw sounds like the name of an evil villain in a Die Hard movie. Anyway, I'm gonna post the ideas on a blog and see if I can do it. If it works, maybe it will lead somewhere. To be honest, I don't know why I'm doing this, but I feel like this is the direction I should go, so I'm gonna see what happens. At the very least, I'll be posting charts and maybe videos, so maybe it will inspire a trading idea you like. I'm sure I'll enjoy the outlet, but I do hope it actually leads to something more than a public display of my usual bafoonery. Pretty much everything I would comment on is overextended and in need of a pullback to enter or add. Lots of events this week for pullbacks to happen. Watch that 1.24 level on the Euro. There's a long-term uptrendline there. That might be the spot the dollar, euro, yen, and metals pullback. We'll see. I'm likely trimming my positions if it bounces there.
You forgot to begin your post with, "Dear Diary"...
Breathe, stupid! You forgot to breathe!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tNe05a5APDo
i refuse ti read a post this long on principal.
i refuse to read a post this long on principal.
Principle.
who wrote about the principal? Which grade? elementary? middle? high? could be ur high.
Perhaps he refused to read in Grammar School, because the reading assignments were "too long", as well. That will explain his ignorance as to the difference between principals and principles.
I wonder if he thought that perhaps the article was "too long".
Ya gots ta love dem "sound bites" and "30 Second Attention Span" crowdz howevuhs. Dem iz da normalz peoples.
This sticks out.....
"I decided to make a blog"
but the rest is respectable.
Who's your dealer?
I mean the pharmaceutical one.
Happened because euro broke 1.25
I see a nail gun in our future headlines
Dollar well above 87?
Just a case of the jitters coming on. Have another drink and BTFD M'Fers.
that is more like 10% crash, from 2.17 to 1.96.....math challenged are we?
Someone has seen the latest poll results. Bend the straw just a little more before election day.
Article by Pat Buchanan and Lew Rockwell... seems good.
http://www.infowars.com/the-coming-november-wars/
- Amnesty
- Ferguson
- Iran
- Possible IS Sacking of Baghdad
How the GOP will handle these after election and if Barack will pass Amnesty before Election.
LOL... all of you guys who keep screaming at the other guy for pointing out the hyperbolic headline - "it's a drop from 2.17 to 1.96 that's more than a percent blah blah blah blah" apparently you guys didn't read the article and are unable to notice that the first chart is of the 10yr over two weeks ago.
That Euro drop, IN THE 2ND CHART, represents roughly a 4% drop which is notable but not a "crash" imo...
+1
And the treasury 10 year chart is yields, not dollars, FFS.....
Glad that somebody else can tell the difference let alone process the information.
LOL !! ZH screams big drop, and in order to justify their claim they post a 1 min chart!! I guess this incarnation of Tyler Durden is a newbie. In 2008 I saw a 350 pips drop on the "beast" took just 3 or 5 seconds. Wannabe traders make more money running websites :)
Thar be dragons!
Crack up boom...shaka laka, boom shaka laka,...
Crack up boom...shaka laka, boom shaka laka,...
Crack up boom...shaka laka, boom shaka laka,...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g7_Up2FB_Fk
Greenspan said?
Eur(n)o fit to wipe my ass.
Echo of the halloween yen massacre.
"Euro suddenly crashes on no news." WTF? Take your meds, ECB!
No gnus is good gnus...
.. With Gary Gnu.
Typical of systemic crashes.
See
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com/2014/09/rogue-swan-weapons.html
Rogue waves from nowhere .
Internally generated
I thought no news was good news!
You either are a spectator and read the news.
Or you are a active participant and create the news.
Your choice.
What the wealthy do for entertainment...
"Hmmm....I am rather bored this morning. There is no fucking excitement happening. Hey. I have got a great idea. I will dump a whole shitload of Euro on the Markets for the fuck of it and then laugh as they tried to figure out why the price collapsed."
its like bowling. set up the pins. put some spin on the ball. and wait for that strike.
watch for the widow maker. i think they are going to drop the yen off the 10th floor.
i want to see the dollar @95!
when is the boring yuan going to move off 6.11???
i say set the yuan at ten and forget about it, why wait?
NO NEWS ????
Are you guys Kidding ???
In Spain a Poll came up showing the Most Leftist Party "Podimos" ... from the Obama theme "Yes We Can", is Ahead of the Polls!
27.7% - Podemos
26% - PSOE
20% Current PP party (typical right wing)
The AGENDA of the Podemos is simply:) and worthy ... to hell with austerity and the Banks controlled EU :)
Saddly they are all lefties and a mix of web progressives and the like ... a complete economic disaster for Spain :)
If the elections in Spain were today and tey are coming next year, that party would Win the elections:)
That is the Beggining of the end of the Euro!
Also the Polls was made by one of their Main Newspapers ... Mainstream media ... so ... at best their voting was PLayed Down, not up!
Plenty of important elections in 2015 that all could mean a major change to things, or not.
Greek Presidential (Fevruary 2015) - Trigger for General Election.
Finland Election (April 2015) - NATO.
UK Election (May 2015) - UKIP.
Turkish Election (August 2015) - Erdogan.
Argentina Election (October 2015) - Kirchner.
Canada Election (October 2015) - Stephen Harper?
Spanish Election (December 2015) - Podemos.
I reckon the UK Election is clearly the most important, and the result of the UK Election could well have a direct impact on the 2nd most important - the Spanish Election.
Ides of November, Kirchner is termed out, that is why the stock market is shooting up there.
Her term limit has the moral bonus that she could end up in prison by late November :)
Please you someone make a huge Article here on Zerohedge to alert to this Game chaging Poll in none other then Spain ... it's the beggining of the Populist/leftist movement ending the euro ...
In France is the other Statist/ so called right wing movement of Le Pen Ahead of the Polls !
Both will have the same result ..the end of the euro ...
And no one talks about this ???
https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=es&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie...
If the euro crashes and no one is trading, did it really crash? Kind of like the tree in the forest. Who gives a shit. Europe is fucked anyway.
"On no news whatsoever"...
It's Monday morning; when large funds and investors return from the weekend and make medium term trades. Not everyone trades the markets in a schizophrenic buy good news, sell bad news manner.
Might this be wrong way Yen/USD trades unwinding that were financed in Euro's or something like that?
If you look at the long-term chart for EURUSD, it seems to indicate it is a declining wedge that will settle in at around 1.27-1.30 until 2020, and then drop to something like a negative number after that.