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The Most Ridiculous Seasonal Adjustment You Will Ever See
Moments ago, in an attempt to put some lipstick on what as we previously showed was a very poor ISM (and Markit) Service PMI, Goldman focused on the only silver lining it could find: employment. This is what Goldman's Kris Dawsey just said: "However, employment continued to rise to a very strong level (+1.1pt to 59.6). The employment index now stands close to the series high of 60.2 set in August 2005, a favorable indicator for Friday's employment report. Prices paid moved down (-3.1pt to 52.1), mirroring the decline seen in the ISM manufacturing report released earlier this week. Despite the headline miss, today's ISM nonmanufacturing report is consistent with a solid pace of expansion in service sector activity. "
Which, if one looks at the (seasonally-adjusted) history showing the Institute for Supply Management's Service Employment data, would make perfect sense: it is indeed near record highs.
Surely that last leg, showing "Employment" soaring in 2014 has nothing to do with the mid-term elections, and is fully rooted in reality, right.
Well wrong, and not just because said elections showed how Americans feel about the real, not fake, economy.
Because sadly for ISM's attempt to endlessly manipulate the data, for Goldman's endless attempts to spin the data, and most of all, for the US worker, who despite pretty charts showing otherwise, still can't find a well-paying job and showed his feelings during yesterday's election, here is what really happens.
Every month a number of respondents are asked how they see the employment situation in real-time, unadjusted. They are given three simple choices:
- Higher
- Same
- Lower
The final employment index is tabulated by taking the average of the Higher and Same prints, and then applying a seasonal adjustment factor to the result to obtain the final number, which is shown in the blue lines above and below.
There is a small problem, however, because of all the data noted above, the most important, if not only, thing that matters is how many respondents see "higher" employment. Everything else is a math formula and a fudge factor.
So what does the actual data look like?
In the chart below we have shown the progression of the "Higher" responses over the past year. As of October, only 22% of respondents saw a pick up in employment, 67% responded "Same" and 11% expecting "lower."
Long story short, 22% was the lowest print since April.
In other words, what happened in October is that an unadjusted response which indicated the weakest labor market in half a year, was magically transformed into almost the best print in the history of the Employment series.
How?
Seasonal Adjustments. Unfortunately, Americans don't have the option of paying with "seasonally adjusted" money they don't have, in compensation for a "seasonally adjusted" job they don't hold.
Is there any wonder then that yesterday's Midterm election result - a furious popular repudiation of Obama's fake economy - was what it is?
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Ooopps, it appears El Presidente pulled up lame:
http://a.disquscdn.com/uploads/mediaembed/images/1426/2902/original.jpg?...
Putin has more flexibility now
And you expected something else from them?
Ha, if y'all thought this was a silly seasonal, wait til you see the Kondratiev Winter seasonal adjustment!
Don't know what/who Kondratiev is. Please inform me.
Too lazy to do your research on your own?
Aye vwuill transmit tis back to Vladimir. Comrade.
Obama (& his then Wall Street/J-Street backers) back in 2008 promised "just the tip," and in 2012 that "he'd pull out," but "do you see what happens, Larry."
Now, the Wall Street/J-Street boys have backed a different Member (of the same appendage).
BOHICA.
Make sure to grease up and spread wide.
i have worked for a successful clinic that has been around for over a decade. we have had our ups and downs but never anything like this. suddenly we are having budget issues and laying off tons of people. another peculiar thing is this worldwide IV bag shortage. cant get normal saline if your life depended on it. i have a bad feeling about all of this.
How about Kosher salt, water and an enema bag?
Hey, what can I say? I grew up poor.
Client of mine is wholesale distributor of chemicals used in Pharma industry and says he's never seen the shortage of critical med chems that now exists, for "mysterious reasons," in over 30 years.
At retail level, this means people literally can't get prescriptions filled (actually bad in a few cases).
Most likely we have "offshored" and regulated everything to the point of limiting supply.
Who owns PHARMA again??? Starts with a J, ends with two O's..
these fuckers are probably stocking up themselves full of supplies in preparation of something bad...while the clueless sheeps keeps looking at the stock markets hitting new highs.
Interesting...
Just the other day, I was waiting for a flu shot at the local COSTCO pharmacy for 50 minutes or so.
While I sat there, maybe 15 or 16 peeps showed up for thier scrips. Most had received a phone call saying they're ready for pickup.(easy to overhear. I was in a chair right by the register)
About 12 of em were instead told that thier meds were out of stock. Maybe in by tomorrow. Check back, etc, etc. The peeps were pissed, since a robocall told them all is well. But it wasn't. Several complained about a long drive to pick up, or that they were completely out.
I'm not a Costco customer (just for a flu shot), so maybe this was an outlier.
seems very strange though.
I don't spread BS.
Ask family & friends about difficulty in filling Rx's (if you haven't experienced it 1st hand).
Some of the most common & even necessary meds are in historically short supply right now - we're talking every class of meds.
There are no coincidences.
Going to a place where sick people go for meds and hanging around to get a prevantive shot doesn't seem to me to be a wise choice.
Weird, but the same thing was happening in a central Florida Walgreens I visited last week. WTF?
No excuse. I vacationed in Turkey (south shores) and there seems to be a well stocked, English speaking pharmacist on every block.
I bought a couple different antibiotics by European affiliates of the big names (Glako SK) with no prescription. Reasonably priced and everything I asked for the showed me in clean, factory fresh boxes.
Enema bags must be kosher too because I notice an awful lot of them in Wall street and Washington District of Criminals are.
Thanks for the input 909, the personal anecdotes here on Zh are some of the most telling. My industry is different, but the same. Not quite right, I can't get ahead, and unsure future.
Im in the tooling business. We use bus sized machines to pop out tools the size of a fingernail. We are a leading indicator and stratigically important to the department of defense. That's not from me, its from them. When things slow down we are the first to get hit. When things pick up we get orders immediately.
We are slowing down in a big way. Ive layed off two so far and the orders are really slow. Just like in 2008. Just like the time before the SHTF.
Just saying.
Any idea why there's a saline shortage?
Oh wait, the FDA is "on it."
http://www.fda.gov/drugs/drugsafety/ucm382255.htm
Can't get a bag of salt water. Maybe we need Gandi to come back from the grave and give us a hand here. The great saline bag march.
1. Increased FDA scrutiny is interfering with drug production.
2. Hospitals have contracts that keep prices locked for a year or more.
Bureaucracy and price controls?
Wow, it is like Hayek said, "Put socialists in charge of the Sahara, and soon there'll be a shortage of sand."
As a physician of 40+ years I concur. WTF...IV saline is purified salt water...This is a horrible mismanagement of supply lines. The FDA demands control over those supply lines and is therefore responsible for this potentially fatal problem....potentially fatal you ask?...yes, every dehydraed flu victim will suffer if there is not rehydrating fluid available.
My office has almost had to stop giving certain IV treatments...just because of this shortage. The FDAmust go. They do nothing right. there has to be a better way.
Pressure cooker and table salt, or death. Funny most would choose death. You have to set back and laugh, cry or go mad.
Pharma grade salts are all in incredibly short supply now - everything from antibiotics to IVs to just about every other med uses pharma grade salts to increase shelf-life, stabilize molecules, as a catalyst (as in antibiotics), or even as mood stabilizer class drugs in and of themselves (lithium is a salt).
WELCOME TO FEMA-VILLE!
I see you're here for some severe "flu" treatment. Fine.
First of, you'll need a saline drip. But... there's a catch.
Just turn in your guns for the saline.
1 long gun = 1 IV bag; 1 handgun = 2 IV bags; any class III item - legal or not = 4 IV bags.
Tell us about your neighbors & we'll relax the requirement a bit if you have no guns.
The lies are bound to get bigger as the desperation increases...
Lies, damned lies and statistics. Adjusted statistics even worse.
Early snow in Siberia.
Just wait until they release the new Obamacare rates...it was delayed until after the election...for politicial reasons....but watch the numbers be readujusted back down now that the election is over....
This morning, the very day after elections, I received the email from the office admin that some Highmark BCBS rates for employees will increase up to 50% and that the firm is therefore switching carriers. The Very Next Day.
Our BCBS rates went up 11% this month. My payroll didn't go up at all to compensate. That's because I don't work for the government and I can't just print money to compensate like they can. Crap!!
I keep thinking of Baghdad Bob, and the U.S. tanks rolling behind him while he denied U.S. troops were in Iraq.
The serfs will be running through the streets with pitchforks and molotov cocktails destroying everything in sight, while the MSM is spinning silk from a pigs ear.
ISM Services PMI
retail included here
i have my doubts that these guys and the folks at BLS (non farm payroll) are aware to the extent retailers have pulled forward the holiday retail season (pretty much over by black friday weekend).
in the old days hiring done in oct/nov for the 6 weeks before Christmas ... now i believe hiring done sept/oct for november 1st kickoff of holiday sales.
in Lowe's this morning ... ALL the Christmas decorations out for sale ... AND heads up displays on black friday sales and bins in the aisles with items under $__... Holiday sales are NOW
If one has no home to live in, do we need Christmas decor? Just sayin. :)
Worse, these are the Xmas sales for 2015.
Transparent administration is being transparent.
Back in october NRF reported record imports for holiday retail ... retailers know j6p only has so many $$s in wallet ... the early bird retailer gets the ONLY worm
Every stranger I speak with in public knows...finally this is all one big fucking lie of an eCONomy. Every single sector. We're all eating our damned peas now ain't we?
What we are eating is our seed corn....our children's future.
a few weeks ago was reading that october sales were going to be good due to halloween falling on a friday (people more likely to have parties) + low gas prices
ICSC GS chain store sales for week ending nov 1st ... dismal
"experts" fell back on the old weather excuse (too warm this time) ... they never give up
Are you in the retail industry? I am, so just curious.
I own a Manufacturer's Rep Agency, and count as my customers a range that includes Dollar Stores, Discount Chains, Potteries, Department Stores (what's left of them), Grocery, and Mom & Pop's. We represent factories and distributors of home furnishings.
You are correct in noticing that retailers are pulling sales forward. They are also reducing committments for 2015, and stalling orders for as long as they can as they try to get a feel for future trends.
On the low end, the Dollar Stores and Discounters are adding more food items in an attempt to maintain foot traffic (to the detriment of my categories). No one is getting sales at "regular" prices. Only deep discounts are working, as retailers watch margins decline and expenses climb.
JC Penny is back swinging at the value customer, and they are having an effect on other Department Stores such as Dillard's, Belk, Stein Mart, etc. These guys really enjoyed Mr. Johnson's retail fiasco of the past couple of years as he sent the JCP customer elsewhere, but now the increases they had enjoyed are eroding. Not that JCP will be healthy anytime soon, but they are getting a larger share of that pie than they were, and the pie isn't growing.
Only upper end retailers like Nordstrom, Bloomies, etc., who appeal to the top 10% with plenty of disposable income are what I would call relatively secure as a classification in making their numbers. Kicking loose orders right now is tough, and as we rapidly reach the end of the window for getting goods out of China before Chinese New Year, I feel my business will be off double digits for the first half. 2015 is starting to feel a lot like 2008-09, and if Santa doesn't show up this year we are in for a wild ride. I have been living on commissions in this business for 37 years, so it's not my first rodeo, and there has been an uneasy feeling inside the retail community since spring.
gold is on sale...get some before it is all gone...they can't mine much more at these prices and no one is selling their actual physical. GLD at 6 year lows in inventory..somebody is getting their physical.
OK, things can only get worse from here.
I just spent the last two hours trying to get a live person on the phone concerning my rent check from the local DHS (yes, I am a slumlord and not proud of it). Finally got through to the Director of Finance (wow!), who told me that since the 1st was a Saturday, the checks were issued on Monday, but returned by THE POST OFFICE (I didn't ask why, didn't want to know) yesterday, but the department of Human Services was closed (yep, all those hard-working bureaucrats get a whole day off to vote), and they found out about the problem today, and will be re-sending the checks, today or tomorrow. Best I could get out of the woman.
So, a whole buncha slumlords are calling the main number and all you get is a recording that says, "all circuits are busy, try your call again later," and then it hangs up. Gonna hurt the local e-CON-o-ME.
What a shitshow this country has become. If I could find a way to evict my welfare tenants, I would, and believe me, I've tried, twice. Just doesn't happen, so I'm stuck with them. I suppose that when the city or county forecloses for taxes (I simply refuse to pay them - they're too high and the services are worthless), maybe these welfare rats will have to move, though I doubt it.
Having a hell of a day. Wish you weren't queer.
Cheer up, everybody...!! What a bunch of doom and gloomers (frowning face).
All you need to do is turn on CNBC and see that all is well... Jim Kramer and Steve Liesman told me so...
Now, do the right thing and Buy The Fucking Dips...!!!!!!!!
So Tyler says, "Yesterday's Midterm election result (was) a furious popular repudiation of Obama's fake economy," when in actuality this latest demonstration of the American electorate's unwavering validation of the left-right paradigm repudiates hope for meaningful change. It is an all-too-predictable election result that may tickle the American citizens' collective sense of voter empowerment, but such an illusion--such an entertainment--comes at a cost, as it further endorses the Democrapublican Party and its warmongering corporatocracy, its Fifth Avenue free money party, its Constitution-crushing surveillance state, its sovereignty-destroying status quo ethos...
This is not some momentous watershed event. The Powers That Be have to be thinking, "We've got this baby right on course."
You've just mouthed the Progressive party line. Sorry, but yesterday was a repudiation of Progressivism.
Food is beyond insane. Beef, chicken, ham, etc. are all extremely expensive. Went shopping the other day and spent two bills for pretty much nothing. Funny, or sad, depending how to look at it, is that the EBT crowd have quite a selection of foods, meats, etc.
What is even worse, is the shopping cart filled with soda, and tons of sugary shit - while the kids look like the Stay Puft Marshmallow Man...
www.gunsgrubandgold.com
JOIN for FREE!!!
Real food is expensive.
Edible, food like substances and fillers are cheap.
*Chickens don't have McNuggets.