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US Services Sector Slumps As Business Outlook Nears 2-Year Lows
US Services dropped modestly from the 58.9 in September to a final print at 57.1 in October - the lowest since April. This should be no surprise as for the last 5 years, H2 has seen a notable decline in the soft-survey-based data. Despite the plunge, employment remained solid even as the business outlook neared 2-year lows. As Markit notes, the survey "warns of a slowdown as move towards the end of the year," which is odd because the world and his pet rabbit said US was decoupling. For a change ISM Services actually agreed with Markit and printed 57.1, missing by the most since Feb 2014 with New Orders and Prices Paid down.
5 in a row, and lowest since April.
“The October survey data running at a level consistent with GDP rising at an annualized rate of 2.5% at the start of the fourth quarter."
"Meanwhile, a solid increase in payroll numbers was maintained during the latest survey period, but service providers’ confidence towards the business outlook was the least positive since July and close to its lowest for two years."
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And then came ISM Services, missing by the most in 8 months...
But catching down to Markit
The breakdown:
What the cherry-picked respondents are saying:
- "Business is steady with new product launches." (Information)
- "The general business outlook is favorable. Approaching 2015 with cautious optimism." (Finance & Insurance)
- "Healthcare market continues to see challenges and uncertainty." (Health Care & Social Assistance)
- "Economy appears to be slowing. Fears of ISIS, Ebola, etc." (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
- "It appears that customers are beginning to engage which is producing sales. Not where we want to be, but continuing to see improvement." (Retail Trade)
- "Sales very sporadic. It’s up and down weekly." (Accommodation & Food Services)
- "Business activity remains robust here." (Utilities)
- "The past few months have been record months for us in terms of sales, but we are seeing margin pressure." (Wholesale Trade)
And keep in mind: all of the above is then "seasonally-adjusted" - here is what the key "New Orders" data looks like unadjusted.
It is at the unadjusted level that we find that the number of respondents seeing "worse" conditions is at the highest since March, offset by those seeing "better", which in turn is lowest sincethe Polar Vortex.
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Finally... this makes one wonder...
Well, so long as we're all on the same page pic.twitter.com/CobMskIr9v
— Not Jim Cramer (@Not_Jim_Cramer) November 3, 2014
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Stock market rally!!!!
Services? Are these services of real value? People waking up to the fact that "financial services" are just like "finanical products" and a means to steal.
Don't forget "Innovative".
It is the "Innovative" in "Innovative Financial Services" that pack the punch....
The disconnect from Wall Street to the reality on the ground is insane !!
Why do we need business to generate profits when manipulated markets do it so much easier and faster? A few HFT computers programmed to boost the market whenever it falters is doing wonders for the Ponzi economy. It's just too much work to improve the real economy.
Not to worry, the newly relected Republicans will save us!
This is no big deal, just pump it up next report.
Resulting in gold and silver continuing their nose dive down.
So, gold and silver prices are simply based on where the money is flowing for the best return, not store of wealth and/or value.
Apparently.....I mean, if they can just smack gold and silver wherever they feel like, I don't see how it's a hedge against anything....apparently it's not at all.
Yea the 'threat' from ISIS and Ebola is why I am not buying more stuff I don't need with money I don't have...
You should know by now Tyler that no one pays attention to actual data. They all pay attention to 3rd tier data points like consumer confidence, and future expectations. ( meaningless contrived hopiums)