This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
USDJPY Breaks 115 (+7 Handles In 7 Days), Decouples From Less Exuberant Stock Market
Does this look like Kuroda has it all under control?
In summary:
Japanese bond yields have crept slowly higher since the big flush on Monday and Nikkei 225 is 2.6% below its highs on Monday seemingly pinned at 17,000. We note this as Abe & Kuroda's currency collapses yet another big figure to 115.00 (up 7 handles in 7 days from pre-FOMC) - the highest in over 7 years. The crucial 120 line in the sand should be crossed early next week at this rate... What was the trigger for tonight's exuberance, we hear you ask, why the Japanese market opening - which sent USDJPY instantly up 40 pips.
JGB yields creeping higher...
As USDJPY loses its beta to stocks...
No mo momo...
If at first yuou don't succeed...
And smash Gold for good measure
Charts: Bloomberg
»
- 8024 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Hell, at this rate we could see 150 by christmas
Matty New Year!!!
I think Japan has set up a rapid escalation in the march towards the next financial & economic crash, and we're in for a deflationary shock in the west (Japan, at 255% debt to GDP - officially - a higher % in actuality - has to inflate its debt away very quickly now given macroeconomic trends, demographics, etc., and will drag other Asian nations, as well as many emerging export-depends economies, down the inflationary march of currency death with it):
http://headlines.ransquawk.com/headlines/south-korea-to-manage-krw-moves...
News Headline Summary
South Korea to manage KRW moves in line with JPY, according to the vice-finance minister
Update details:
- Of note, South Korean officials have repeatedly signalled concern for JPY weakness which hurts South Korean exporters' competitiveness, which has led to increased calls of a BoK rate cut.
Print 02:16 - Asian News - Source: BBG/Infomax
By 'deflation,' you mean 'disinflation,' or 'contraction,' or just some general 'getting cheaper' or 'devaluation?' I ask for clarity, because it seems ironic to hear people use the term in the money supply sense when central bankers are boarding helicopters.
And the band played on....
What fucking madness this is.
a currency crisis coming. is that good for the ponzi as well? the collapse is now imminent.
As long as you keep accelerating, it won't disturb you at all !
Worldwide war on savers, the middle class, future generations, and sound money!
"Mo mayhem."
Forget be afraid. Should we be terrified? The USA has made many enemies over the past thirteen years. Maybe they are...our enemies now?
+7 Handles in 7 days
Not to worry, the Fed can cause gold and silver to fall equally fast to dissuade the Japanese from buying them
We are always hearing about the Chinese buying gold. Do the Japanese really not buy gold in the face of maniac bankers killing their currency?
If the Japanese are not buying gold here in HUGE amounts, it must be a cultural thing. March in lockstep, follow orders, be patriotic, learn by rote, do not think, beware the gaijin, commit seppuku. Good luck with this experiment.
Fair point. Japanese don't generally appear to be an especially libertarian bunch. Of course, there's that ceremony at the end of WW2 to think about...
If they do intend some sort of action to save their economy, they're doing a good job of hiding it. So far, it's party line, every time, all the time.
On that note, has anybody heard a good Fukushima situation report? I hoped we might hear some American politicians talk about helping our Japanese friends with cleanup. Seriously, it seems a forbidden subject, which gives me the creeps. I really would like to see something current in that regard.
There's a lot of traffic in this area. That's why I shorted it. Look back to 2006-07.
The $dollar is running on fumes. It was already retracing before Kuroda fell on his sword.
Thanks Yen for the analysis. 115.021 was followed by a nasty slapdown. You sure called it on another thread.
Back over 115. They can do this all night until every last bear is converted.
You've got some balls mate. How much was the BOJ printing in 2006-07?
YenCross, I saw the retracement, but what I found more interesting was that, for a while, JGB yields were rising as the Yen was falling. Don't want to read too much into short term moves, but that's damned creepy. That's the kind of thing that happens when a central bank starts to lose control no matter how much of something they buy.
Did any of this creep you out like it did for me?
I also caught that. Good eye.
The BoJ is definitely intervening covertly right now. I can tell by the oscillators on my trading charts. The MACD and RSI are completely divergent, and the trade keeps moving higher.
It's like an invisable hand keeps lifting when it hit's the zero line, even when the "Zero Lag MACD" is negative.
I guess we should be grateful for central planning or this thing would have gone down the drain long ago.
Glad somebody else could confirm (in even greater depth) what I thought I was seeing.
YC, why are you trying to battle Kuroda, unless you're literally trading the pips HFT style (suicidal in practice and stress)?
Kuroda wants - wait, it's more fundamental - Kuroda NEEDS the yen much lower vs the USD & Euro so that he can extend the Japanese Ponzi economy.
Barring a genuine major, global event of huge proportions, yen headed
to 120, and then on to 130, EASILY, against USD by mid to fall 2015.
As long as the BOJ keeps printing money, I will continue to profit. Thank you Abe and Kuroda for an awesome night.
Is it bad to be personally against central banker madness and yet profit from the madness?
Just wipe that stuff off your chin..
You have to wonder what Kuroda would do if the yen completely collapsed due to his irresponsibility. They are basically daring the market to collapse the currency at this point and enter the realm of hyperinflation. Maybe once they join all the happy people in Venezuela and Argentina they will be happy as well.
If this goes much farther Japan will be in a nasty loop that feeds on its self. It is clear that the prospects for Japan are lousy. Simply put the country is to far in debt to ever pay it off. Remember that Japan has few natural resources and imports raw goods a weak yen will drive up the cost of these imports. The days of huge surplus trade deficits that blessed Japan are gone!
Japan is facing a wall of debt that can only be addressed by printing more money and debasing their currency. This means Japan will be paying off their debt with worthless yen where possible and in many cases defaulting on promises made. Japan's public debt, which stands at around 230% of its GDP and is the highest in the industrialized world. Japan is past the point where it can return to a "free and fair market" interest rate marketing their bonds to the world and still be able to pay the debt service.
The moment the Japaneses stock market fails to rise enough to offset inflation and the people of Japan realize that even a weaker yen will not help we will see a tsunami of money fleeing Japan. This will constitute the end of the line for those left holding both JGBs and the yen. This has been a long time coming and I contend the cross-border flow of money leaving Japan is why some stock markets have remained so resilient . When Japan crumbles it will be felt across the world. More on this subject in the article below.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/05/japan-sliding-towards-abyss.html
115.2 now... shall we make it 116?
115.3 ... gold now in the red... getting ready for another big night out at 00:30
115.4 (after hitting 115.5) ...
...
and a quick trip back to 115.20 to refill the ink cartridges....
... and that's it. Shows over. Back under 115.
No more free lunches. Bankers might now have to work for a living
We give you ...GODZILLA... bahaha bahahahah bahahahah!
Yeah, I covered my (usd/jpy)short for 20 pips. Getting ready to reload. There's no BoJ manipulation going on here. /
SARC
60 pips in 15 minutes on absolutely nothing.
As much as bandwagon surfing is a fucking stupid idea, I threw one on e/j earlier. Would have been more surprised if it hadn't worked, tbh.
"Getcha free money + radioisotopes! Roll up! Roll up!"
Poor bastards. :(
The BOE policy meeting is coming up later. I'd hold onto that trade. The GBP services PMI was horrible last night.
Good call YC, but I pussied out already. Just chipping away here and there until some trends appear. Yeah, BOE & ECB policy, with GBP at supp, + bonus Draghi bullshit session. Should keep things, ah, interesting.
Flat for NFP tho, fuck that crazy shit. ;)
g/l.
Did you just catch the batshit crazy reversal on usd/jpy? This shit is really starting to get out of control.
I hear ya. I'm going to take a nap before the european markets open. I'll catch ya back on this thread after London opens.
Whoa shit, wasn't even looking. Yeah, this is why I'm staying out as much as possible. That's an 80 pip reversal in 15 -20 min, just 'because'. Ugly...
In Japan the toilets do not flush counter-clockwise. Nor do they flush clockwise. Instead they just suck yen.
28 years ago, when Congressmen were smashing Panasonic and Sony radios outside Capitol Hill as an expression of their anger at Japan Inc.'s "unfair" ability to build better and sell cheaper than American companies could, the Yen to dollar exchange rate was around 150 to 1, and the BOJ was keeping interest rates about 4% below American interest rates. The entire US computer industry (except IBM) was in danger of going under. Our automakers had lost a third of their marketshare to the Japanese in just 12 years.
Finally, Ronald Reagan told the Japanese that -if they did not "voluntarily" cut back on their exports of autos, computers, and cameras to the United States- he would impose strict quotas on them himself. The Japanese obeyed; and Ronald Reagan saved the American Computer Industry and extended the American auto industry by at least 14 years (until GW and Cheney kicked oil up from $20/barrel to over $80/barrel).
Now if Japan Inc. was so awesome then at 150 yen to the dollar back then, someone explain to me why a depreciating yen would be such a bad thing. Crossing and holding 120 yen to the dollar is as much as Kuroda and Abe can dare to dream about now; but the further it goes the better.
This would be a nightmare come true for South Korea and China of course. But what difference to us would it make if we bought Japanese again like we used to, and bought less from China? Oh-h! That's right! All those "American" companies built factories in China starting 20 years ago.
Nobody's trying to build capital. They're all taking turns trying to destroy it.
Capital is natural resources and human labour, currency/money is just a representation of it, if its accepted as exchange.
What they are doing is, whatever it takes to balance their accounting books. Need for exponential growth in numbers Vs declining demand (and also supplies if one believes in Peak Oil).
Yes - Exactly - I use 'capital' in the deeper sense despised by electron flippers.
Japan "voluntarily" cut back on car sales all right. By selling the same number of cars, but going from the econobox end of the market to the luxury end ( Lexus, Infiniti). Thus making triple the profit on the same number of cars.
USDjpy is gonna hit 120 soon!!! hold long bitchess
Let's it hit 200.... and beyond....
I expect China, Korea and other asian countries will post tariff on japan exports because of currency manipulation
I'm with yen cross short usd vs jpy