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Will the US Dollar Trigger Another 2008 Event?
The market looks like it’s topping out.
We have a clear megaphone pattern in the S&P 500. We could always stage a final blow off top, but we’re at or near the top already. The next leg down should take us to the low 1800s. If things really begin to accelerate, we could easily go below 1700:

There is certainly no shortage of potential catalysts for this.
1) Mario Draghi’s “bazooka” in Europe is looking more and more like a water pistol. There may in fact be something of a mutiny going on at the ECB as more and more national central bank heads grow tired of Draghi’s secrecy and policies.
2) Japan’s economy is an absolute disaster. More importantly, the Japanese Bond market is heading towards an implosion. Risk is so mispriced by the Bank of Japan’s policies (QE efforts greater than 24% of Japan’s GDP) that even a general move to market rates could blow up the whole mess.
3) Based on un-massaged data, China is growing at HALF of the official rate. Given than half of all future global GDP growth is expected to come from China, this doesn’t bode well for the world.
4) The US Dollar is rallying hard. We’re already at a four-year high. With the global dollar carry trade somewhere over $3 trillion, this has the potential to blow up a massive amount of investments (see the current commodity meltdown).
The financial world focuses far too much on stocks. The stock market, despite being at record highs (meaning record market capitalizations) remains one of the smallest, and least sophisticated markets on the planet.
Consider that stocks, even at current lofty levels, have a global market capitalization of slightly over $60 trillion.
In contrast, the global bond market is well over $100 trillion.
And the global currency market trades OVER $5.3 trillion per day.
It is currencies, not stocks, where the most significant moves occur. The currency markets are the largest, most liquid markets in the world. They are always first to move when things change.
And the US Dollar is moving up RAPIDLY. Will this blow up the financial system as it did in 2008? We’ll soon find out.
If you’ve yet to take action to prepare for the second round of the financial crisis, we offer a FREE investment report Financial Crisis "Round Two" Survival Guide that outlines easy, simple to follow strategies you can use to not only protect your portfolio from a market downturn, but actually produce profits.
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Best Regards
Phoenix Capital Research
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The stock market...
http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/anatomy-of-a-bubble-how-the-federal-r...
The Dollar...
http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/u-s-dollar-indexelliott-wave-update-f...
Graham, I would really like to believe you this time...but I have been burnt too many times before.
Let me guess...you REALLY, REALLY, REALLY, REALLY mean it this time right?
Seriously I can't fault you...everything I was ever taught suggested that the Market should have crashed again a few years ago...YET..here we sit...at record highs...with another megaphone.
The falling value of both the yen and euro will reek havoc through contagion. For months the major world currencies had traded in a narrow range as if held in limbo by some great force. This has allowed people to think we were on sound footing as central banks across the world continued to print and pump out money chasing the "ever elusive growth" that always appears to be just around the corner. Recently several major currencies made multi-year highs or lows depending on the match-up .
The Fed recently whacked the dollar down but for how long? Because of weak demand for goods and most of this freshly printed money flowing into intangible investments inflation has not been a major problem, but the seeds for its future growth have been planted everywhere. John Maynard Keynes said By a continuing process of inflation, government can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens.
While there are not many Bond Vigilantes there are a slew of Currency Vigilantes and they are ready to make their presence known. Weakness in the value of the Yen, Pound, and Euro must not go unnoticed. More on why this may be a signal that currency trading is about to get very wild in the article below. Please note, this may also be sending a signal that the whole system is unstable and the stock market could drop like a stone due to contagion.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/09/caution-alert-currencies-may-get-wild.html
The Fat Lady is a Matriarch . And she is singing .
See
https://www.academia.edu/9140381/An_End_to_7000_years_of_war_._Orkney_Wi...
Its over. The dollar will move back over 100. The dow will be 25K. Gold will trade sub $1000 before this is over, maybe down to $500. Silver will be under $5. There will be no more PM miners.
Possibly true..... than again, dollar moves up to 10000, Dow to 25kk, and gold to $16, silver to $1 (the old 16-1 thingy), and a "debt jubile".
$16 sounds a little low. I was think $99. I do like the debt jubilee, however. Helps with the debt I got getting that degree in high-altitude basket weeving.
"The market looks like it’s topping out".
PC is a 'bot. It's the only other explanation for this 6 year relentless negative drumbeat that ignores all but a cockeyed, highly biased view, thru the wrong end of the telescope.
If I knew that the market is topping out, i'd shut my mouth, take a short position with triple ETFs, with every single FRN I could beg, borrow, or steal, rob a bank if I had to and then bask in the glory of my most excellent decision when the ship comes in.
Nice megaphone formation.
That's what she said.
as she went down :-)
and put her lips gently to it.
In 2008 it rose because of higher interest rates ... and the higher interest rates tightened money flow and decreased profits.
... but that was the point, right? To blow things up in 2008? They took down both Bear and Lehman when they did not have to... probably because they could not stand Cayne and Fuld, neither of which respected the order.
It would be interesting to see if they can pull off raising interest rates and holding up prices. By common thinking it would be a miracle... RAULF.
Did Graham Summers kill himself finally? I don't see his name at the bottom of this like we used to. Either way, the message is the same: "The sky will fall very soon"
At this point, can this just be bullshit psy-ops? Nobody can be this stupid for this long and not learn anything.
Graham has a court order on him to stay 50 feet away from nail guns until his predictions are history.
He jumped out the window but he has a one story office complex.
Broke both of his legs?
Strong USD, weak gold -- a message to the Swiss electorate regarding what is a proper reserve?
Too much competition in currencies and therefore economies in the world.
They all abuse their currency to get some advantage because politics failed.
The problem with being correct about the future is that you are wrong about the present...ask Peter Schiff.
Yeah, ol' Phoenix capital just throws that "stong dollar= collapse thing out there are a tease. To learn why, you have to subscribe to the newsletter. Only when you get there, you won't find anything of substance.
Why will a strong dollar be a potentially destabilizing factor? OK... here goes.
Strong dollar hurts US exports...wait -what do we export? O ka'ay, I'm waiting!
Strong dollar fucks up debt burdens around the world. If the debt is payable in dollars, it takes more local currency to make the payment. Default city.
Strong dollar buys more yen on margin. There's a fuck-load of yen out there right now, and the leverage is un-fucking real. The short term bet is to go long treasuries, (on margin with the borrowed yen) and turn the bitch over before it blows up. Treasury price goes up, yields stay down, strong dollar, weak yen...this is QE in disguise. This is good news for the stock market, and for the FED, who can pretend there is no QE and win bownie points, but QE by disguise creates cracks in the system.
China is one pillar of the global economy that will be tested by the strong dollar. Sure a strong dollar buys more cheap Chinese shit, but it also fucks with China's ability to stay liquid. China has a growing and somewhat chronic liquidity problem as it is. Something to watch.
Ol' Phoenix mentioned the carry trade. A strong dollar will suck forex into it ike a tornado. This puts a liquidty squeeze on the rest of the planet. Where will the implosion happen first?
Stay tuned.
Or even better, ask his dad about being right. That is what being right gets you in the land of the free.
I will add to my shorts when this dude from Phoenix capital will become negative on the markets....
I can feel it might be quite soon, since every day he posts a "reason" for the market to collapse....
But - As long as he's bearish- I have no doubt the markets will continue to new highs....my estimation is for 2200 in the S&P
The dollar bouncing up due people thinking its 'safe', as safe as the electrons its printed on.....
Dollar isn't moving up that fast, not as fast as oil is moving down.
I see various panicked statements about a strong dollar. I dunno. Works for me. But may require some US protectionism too. Even the weak dollar requires that. If only anyone in DC had the brains to be up on this stuff at all.
Tick tick tick BOOM!
Now that Rep's have taken CONgress, 2015 will possibly see a US budget surplus. That's deflationary, for sure. It's gonna be hard for the banksters to nail gun all those new Rep's.
I really hope you're being sarcastic.
Budget Surplus. Now that's the funniest thing I will read today, fer sure.
I guarantee you'll be hard pressed to read anything that funny until well after the crash.
"will possibly see a US budget surplus"
HOW?
Surpluses and deficits, only serve to demonstrate what a complete sham any budget process is.
An absense of surpluses, and deficits demonstrate a poor organizational structure, and fraudulent accounting at some level.
... er .... uhh .... ppppleeeze 'splain what a so-called "budget process" might be?????
'cuz, unless I'm mistaken (it has been known to happen, but rarely ;-) there a'int no friggin' so-called "budget process"
Just "Continuing Resolutions To INFINITY!!!!!!!"
And, well, that resets the so-called "baseline" to, well, INFINITY!!!!!!!!
- Ned
{then again, I remain New_Meat in these esoteric but oh, so, sophisticated financial conversations.}
{{and I'm sure that they have multiple channels of communication that tell me that I'm just a stupid piglet and that all is good}}