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The Bipolar Market - Extreme Greed & Fear Schizophrenia
The last 3 weeks have seen stocks surge at their fastest pace in years (on dismally low volume) but CNN's Fear & Greed-o-meter only got back to "Neutral". The simple reason is... the components of the index have never been more bipolar - Extreme Greed in stocks and options and Extreme Fear in junk bonds.
One of these things is not like the other...
As various indicators simultaneously exhibit extremes of fear and extremes of greed...
* * *
We wonder who will be proven too 'extreme'.
Charts: CNNMoney and Bloomberg
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Fascinating, is it not, that an alleged finance blog, can only speak of investing,
in terms of greed and fear?
How about saving, planning, building, creating, innovation...?
kaiserhoff - love you. correct. could you direct that question at the FED please?
1 - savings - they have trashed savings. savings are for old people who worked for those savings. what a silly idea, when they could be in stocks. besides, they should probably just go away themselves.
2 -planning - they are doing all the planning, centrally. and much better than you or i could. they really are the smartest people in the room.
3 - building - well i live in nyc and they are re-building the wtc, after some people suspect they helped take it down. that is a start.
4 - creating - what do you want to create? they helped create facebook. isn't your life better now? they are creating jobs also. and new rental housing. how creative do you need them to be? you want unicorns?
5 - innovation - despite all the tulip mania and other ponzi schemes, has anyone been as innovative as the fed in innovating qe - the printing of massive amount of money of total thin air? what do you want - a platinum coin - you name the price? me and richard branson will buy it with our galactic banking system (well really, if you want to start galactic air travel, you should really need galactic atm's to swipe right? and those wouldn't be just some global banks to process it all).
6 - summation - anyway, greed is cool and why be in fear? only the weak fear. grab and snatch it while you can. living for the moment. what did that other guy say? 'better to rule for a day then serve...'
Reclaiming greed.
It's not just for breakfast any more;)
One of these things is not like the other...
You spent too much of your formative years watching Sesame Street !
http://www.sentimenttiming.com/free-sentiment/
Sentiment is at extremes-woody dorsey is looking for short term top to hit between 11-10..11-18 turn dates.
http://screencast.com/t/usmjqlM0L
Not bipolar .
BaryCenter .
The difference in viewpoint is crucial .
Barycenters can be calculated , whereas bipolar is a vague fart floating in the air .
See
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com/2014/11/barycenter-update-i.html
"Fascinating, is it not, that an alleged finance blog"
Learn something new everyday eh?
Vanguard added I think 185 billion in assets. The Tyler's don't talk about the flow into equities anymore either...and for good reason. It is enormous right now.
That still says to me "dumb money blow off." We could still go up 40-50% from here as everyone who has missed the past five...er, six years now start piling in. But the fact of the matter is we still have shit for a recovery and a still remaining stupendous amount of debt.
I think this energy boom is starting to spread however and "morph" to include all electric vehicles. I did see Me (un)Kinder and Morgan are adding to their fleet of fuel ships. They already own six and that's a lot cheaper than a pipeline.
This is a huge move higher in equities in just six weeks but I still see nothing that doesn't still justify adding to the only non correlated asset to inflation trading namely treasuries.
The dollar has moonshot. Metals prices have crashed and oil has rolled over. Republicans did not merely take the Senate. Thev've taken over the bulk of Government in the US right now.
Normally that means higher taxes, less spending and lower growth. We'll see. I had one day of my hoped for "mega move." (Only about five minutes but it was spectacular.). I haven't been wrong but I have been on a relative basis.
Sorry but that huge trade deficit is not growth positive. Don't like missing out on LUV which i recommended at 8 and is now at 34 of course.
They created a stock market that only goes up. Is that not truly amazing? They removed all fear. Not even Jesse Livermore would short this market. The things he looked for, like maxed out earnings, mean nothing anymore. You bet against this market and the Fed will hand you your head. Weak earnings just means more stock buybacks. He never had to face anything like a fully engineered stock market. Innovation now means I-Toys and Facebook to keep the unemployed masses entertained all day and peaceful. Smart, very smart.
Certainly, America's oligarchs would agree, "Better to reign in Hell than serve in Heaven", and they will be going there in time.
The only things 'reigning' down there are 10' tall demons with 20" cocks, waiting for some tender Wall Street bunghole to arrive.
You have to beware of the strong dollar as it will affect the earnings of U.S. Multinational national companies. It looks like to me we are in a deflationary cycle. Bull and Bears make money pigs lose!
Bulls and bears make money, pigs lose!
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Extreme fear in junk bonds will eventually move to EM debt if it's not there already...plus a strong USD, plus China crapping out. Means EM is, ahem, going to have a few problems. Why hasn't this part of the market crashed already?
Then there's the fear that if I don't BTFD I'll miss the next up-leg in stawks-that's the greed part. :-D