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Pandemic Implications
The recent spread of Ebola has led to a tragic loss of human lives and stands to devastate West African economies. As the situation has evolved, and despite the equity market's apparent belief that it's all over, Goldman has examined the global economic and market implications of the outbreak.
It would appear Ebola is a thing of the past...
But implications remain as Goldman Sachs explains,
We survey our economists and equity analysts to provide a sector-by-sector breakdown of the disease’s impacts to date and, drawing on past episodes of pandemic threats, its potential effects. We find that the economic costs of pandemics can be severe, but that the hit to growth is usually mostly limited to the region where the disease is centered.
The economic outcomes of a pandemic are often largely determined by an outbreak’s secondary effects, such as the “fear factor” and policy responses. History suggests that most impacts on stocks are typically short-lived and driven more by sentiment than by tangible effects on business activity, although this may not be the case in the mining sector.
Still, Ebola is not expected to alter the global demand and supply balance in most exposed commodities, with the possible – but still unlikely – exception of cocoa.
Breakdown of Ebola impacts to date and what we could expect
Economics: We anticipate only a small global economic impact, so long as the outbreak is contained, contagion fears do not escalate, and policy responses are commensurate with the threat to public health.
Commodities: If the outbreak spreads to Ghana and the Ivory Coast, 70% of the world’s cocoa supplies would be threatened. Nigeria is the key country for energy production, but this production is offshore.
Airlines/Aerospace: Given West Africa’s small share of global air traffic and limited interconnectivity to global routes, Ebola is unlikely to inflict a major hit on airlines unless its footprint becomes truly global.
Healthcare: Company-specific upside (orders) or downside (hospital occupancy) is possible, but historically pandemics have not had a meaningful or sustainable impact on businesses.
Lodging, Leisure, and Travel: With the lodging and cruise industries seeing supply increases emerge, the impact of Ebola will likely be secondary to broader consumer and economic conditions.
Mining: Until the Ebola outbreak in West Africa is under control, mining companies in the region will likely find it increasingly difficult to operate and execute on development plans.
Retail: Contagion fears are capable of lowering consumer demand, as happened in Hong Kong during SARS. Luxury retail in particular would suffer if air travel
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* * *
With the economies of Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea contributing less than 0.02% to world GDP, the global economic impact of the Ebola outbreak is expected to be very small, assuming that the outbreak is contained with appropriate response measures. In countries so far largely unaffected by the disease, limiting the economic impacts of the current outbreak will require that contagion fears do not escalate and policy responses are commensurate with the actual threat to public health.
- Pandemics can have large growth impacts; for example, the three major flu pandemics in the 20th century (in 1918, 1957 and 1968) coincided with or preceded recessions in the United States.
- The effect of recent pandemics on economic activity has depended more on the population’s reaction to a health threat than the disease’s virulence. The mortality rate in Hong Kong from SARS was far less than in a typical US flu season, but fear of contagion crushed retail sales (which dropped roughly 10% from their peak), leading to GDP growth of -12% annualized in Hong Kong in 2Q2003. The duration of the epidemic also matters – as SARS came under control, the Hong Kong economy rapidly recovered by late 2003.
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Goldman Sachs. A plague upon society every bit as dangerous as Ebola.
Ebola has nothing on Goldman
Good news about ebola: some of the dead Sierra Leone victims are alive again
Bad news about ebola: the brief resurrection of dead victims in Liberia has ended and deaths are increasing once again.
http://virologydownunder.blogspot.com.au/2014/07/ebola-virus-disease-evd...
Seriously, they're just cleaning up the past numbers and the many new labs are now able to do confirmations for local hospitals in a matter of days instead of weeks. They're at the point of establishing pretty good monitoring and tracking in West Africa, so the numbers will become more reliable going forward.
Way to early to say they have the outbreak stabilized or under control at this point. They still can only put just over 50% of the actual ebola patients in beds inside proper, isolated medical facilities. Only 1047 beds total so far in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. There are efforts to add 3000 more by the end of the year. The U.S. troops building field hospitals in Liberia (1700 additional beds) are part of that effort. Staffing all those new facilities is still going to be a challenge. The military is only building the 17 hospitals, not staffing them other than one training hospital for local health care workers.
There's still an astounding number of health care workers who were infected - 534 - and 310 resulting deaths through November 2nd. 'Only' four new HCW infected in the last few days, so that trend may be subsiding. Training and supply efforts have only just started, so more HCW infections are expected.
http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/137510/1/roadmapsitrep_5Nov14_e...
Stupid question. Where does the US get the money to send those troops to Africa?
Anyone have any update on Chenney's planned nuke to be dropped on a US city?
"...Where does the US get the money to send those troops to Africa?..."
That would be from me - the U.S. taxpayer.
Your question is, of course, is why spend a nickel on people in West Africa? Who gives a shit, right? What's in it for you?
The answer is that it's going to cost you a hell of a lot less than doing nothing now, then paying (either via insurance rates or taxes) for the arrest, confinement and treatment of a few hundred thousand infected people in the U.S.
Yes, I know all about the government's futile efforts to control the borders and enhanced groping by the TSA (which will also fail) and Flounder, the dual-citizen lawyer brains behind the domestic effort. That's why I just say matter of factly that there will be a few hundred thousand infected here if we just wait. The domestic effort 'feels' about that level of incompetence.
If we stop or at least contain the outbreak in West Africa by easy/cheap methods there, then we don't have to worry about Flounder pushing for an ebola tax on your Aunt Mabel's hemorrhagic corpse here. See how that works?
It's an infectious disease. It's not just Africa's problem - we all live in the same cage.
So no big deal,
SPX is 4% from 2,100.
goldman sachs= i'm exempt from prosecution.
as long as bankers don't die of it its not pandemic
Screw Golem Ballsacks and the unicorn they rode in on. Send 'em all to prison for life.
Thanks for the fix, I was having Ebola trajedy news withdrawals
This whole Ebola thing is really starting to mess with my brain. W T F? One minute it's sheer panic, and now.....NOTHING!
As it was designed to do, you were distracted perfectly
ok...I was distracted. W T F did I miss?
BOJ mashing the gas.
China numbers down.
Greenspan being honest.
Stuff like that.
BOJ mashing the gas.
China numbers down.
Greenspan being honest.
Stuff like that.
The sheep moved on to the elections...oh wait, what was I..nevermind
They call it...
Censorship
See that was simple to explain.
The news medis is suppressing coverage of suspected cases and monitoring. So when the numbers go way up, we won't learn about them until there are positive tests, if even then. Obama has bought the time he needs to seed the country with the plague, with the help of the media. That means they're going to have to be tried along with him, eventually.
Useless article.
Ebola is a non-event.
I prophesied this 3 months ago.
I agree. If it kills you it definitely is a non-event.
Just joking. It's Friday.
A boatload of feverish, vomiting Sierra Leonies showed up on a nudist beach in Gran Canaria today. They all tested negative. Every vomiting, feverish West African is ALWAYS negative whenever they are tested in the west. Wakey wakey.
It might be too soon to declary victory over the mathematics of pandemics.
For ANY respiratory illnesses, one can use the Colloidal Silver, Oregano Oil, and Olive Oil mixed for a anti-viral that kills most koodies in the breathing apparatus. They say obola, most others say Colloidal Silver Plus.
"NUMBER OF PEOPLE UNDER “ACTIVE MONITORING” FOR EBOLA IN NEW YORK TRIPLES....The number of people under “active monitoring” for Ebola symptoms has increased from 117 on Monday to 357 people Wednesday, health officials said. The vast majority of those being monitored arrived in New York City within the past 21 days from the three Ebola-affected countries, the New York City Health and Hospitals Corporation said in a statement."
http://coercioncode.com/tag/ebola/
"This is a clear indication that some new person with Ebola has potentially exposed hundreds of New Yorkers to the virus, yet there isn't a single news report about who this person is, how they got here, where they traveled, or who might be exposed."
http://www.naturalnews.com/047548_Ebola_cover-up_news_censorship_mainstr...
See how effective our new Ebola czar is? He really rolled up his sleeves and got right to work.
isn't it great we have gs to figure out and plan all our lives for us? i'm so rest assured knowing the gs is "think tanking" my life for me. now i can go back to being a great, not just good consumer. now i can stop worrying about stupid stuff and get back to important stuff like what high end brand of jeans i'm going to wear when i finally get that job, so i can pay off my black realities degree.
thanks gs for making all the decisions in my life so i don't have to. im so much happier being tolerant, and diversified, on all these prescription drugs, things are great.
s-a-r-c
Prediction: Chinese develop effective vaccine before ZOG.
Well, if Goldman says so.
[note to self: (1) Put epic African safari back on bucket list. (2) Ask Trader Joe's to start carrying tasty fruitbat snacks.]
Arrest Loyd Blankfein.to stop it from spreading.
As I mentioned in my comment that included the UCLA ebola email I received yesterday the UCLA medical centers are preparing for massive ebola cases. Obola has issued a gag order to the mainstream media and doctors. It is now spreading just as before but it seems to have been sanctioned as a weapon by the globalists in Washington D.C. against the American people.
I suspect that since so much info came out about how it can mutate into an airborne strain that a weaponized version will be released before long. But, that will not be apparent because the new strain will be explained away as a natural mutation.
That's it, unfortunately. Calm before the storm.
"We have now entered the era of such political insanity that Ebola quarantines are actively rejected by the government while news quarantines are actively erected. As long as the people aren't aware of what's really happening, then everything will be fine, we're supposed to believe. So "perception management" becomes the top priority in Washington."
http://www.naturalnews.com/047561_American_government_perception_managem...
Chart #1: Ebola is another false flag in our rigged reality
And once the fear porn press stopped having the desired opiate impact on the market the whole thing was dropped like a hot potato (or potatoe if Dan Quayle is reading this).
e.g. the last major attempted news slam and failed corresponding market impact resulted in the immediate subsequent news story drop off on Ebola along with VIX
Looks like the an ounce of awakening is worth a pound of cure
And still after all this fucking time ZH is still pushing this bullshit.
it is a fucking hoax guys far out how long does this have to go on for, you all have youtube use it.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/nov/04/ebola-outbreak-sierra-leone
EBOLA IS A GENETICALLY MODIFIED ORGANISM (GMO)
http://www.liberianobserver.com/security/ebola-aids-manufactured-western...
some proof:
http://investor.tekmirapharm.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=877397
http://www.jpeocbd.osd.mil/Packs/Default2.aspx?pg=0
http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-us-military-and-the-ebola-outbreak/5407600
"Tuskegee syphilis experiments" in Guatemala
http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/articles/2010/10/02/welle...
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/amy-gutmann/guatemala-syphilis_b_963035.html