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In Defense Of Peter Schiff
Submitted by James E. Miller via Mises Canada,
The financial television channel CNBC has hit hard times. Nielsen ratings show the network’s viewership is at a 21 year low. This is a far cry from two decades ago. The dot-com bubble of the late 90s and early aughts gave the channel its highest ratings in history. The Federal Reserve’s easy money flooded the market, hitting blue chip stocks like a tidal wave. All of a sudden laypeople fancied themselves market gurus, playing the market and investing for a big pay day some time in the future. Trader and commentator Barry Ritholz described the environment as one where “CNBC was everywhere.” “Gyms, bars, restaurants, any public place you went into that had a TV — even sports bars! — had the ticker strewn channel running in the background.”
One bubble burst and a financial crisis later, the home of hothead Jim Cramer has cooled off significantly. There are a few reasons for this. As Lehman Brothers cratered into bankruptcy, the middle class saw its 401(k)s lose a significant portion of value. Such a loss begged for an explanation. Yet economists and financial experts were caught off-guard by the crisis. No popular orator of the dismal science could explain why the banking system devolved into chaos. CNBC’s most popular hosts and guests could only offer guesses.
One person was the exception: Peter Schiff. The internet video “Peter Schiff was right” collaged all of Euro Pacific Capital founder’s dire warnings about the housing bubble. At the time, he was ridiculed on air. Schiff was a cassandra, spouting crank theories long disproven by economic orthodoxy. But by September of 2008, he had the last laugh. The financial world was in turmoil, and Schiff’s explanation – based on the Austrian school’s theory of boom and bust cycles – was at last seen as legitimate.
But memories can sometimes be short. Half a decade later, and Schiff remains the Rodney Dangerfield of finances. Thanks to a flawed call on consumer price inflation and the price of gold, he still finds himself the joke of many a CNBC broadcasts. His continued warnings about the Fed’s reckless inflation binge and coming dollar crisis provide plenty of excuses for the channel’s on-air personalities to pick on him. On a recent edition of “Futures Now,” Schiff was challenged on his inaccurate assessments of macro-economic trends. Scott Nations of NationsShares called him out on his dour Fed assessment. Nations piled on the contempt, practically questioning how Schiff has a career in investment at all. Exasperbated, Schiff proclaimed, “I am wrong a lot less often than most people on this program… and all you do is hassle me.”
Schiff’s rant doesn’t immediately come off as exonerating; let alone mature. He sounds childishly bitter – entitled to respect for his prescient forecasting. This behavior is not admirable in any setting. Anyone who demands praise for his achievements is treading on shaky ground. Pride before the fall, and all that.
Still, Schiff has a point. He went on national television and endured a deluge of mockery for challenging established opinion. His forecasts, while not always correct, were far more accurate than those of his contemporaries. No one likes an ideologue wedded to a philosophy to the point of redundancy; yet there comes a point when facts are facts. When it mattered, Schiff had both an accurate assessment of the economy and a solid explanation to justify his findings. His advice might have saved the livelihood of millions, had it been taken. To this day, his call was seen as heroically prophetic, even while his philosophical underpinnings are still held in suspicion. He hasn’t earned the benefit of the doubt in the eyes of his Keynesian-minded contemporaries.
The lack of respect – and even off-putting attitude – showed toward Schiff can be blamed on outright bias. Like any thought-sport, there is accepted doctrine and kooky theories. The winning team is naturally suspicious of anyone who challenges their earned position.
When it comes to mainstream economics, Keynesianism reigns supreme. Central banking is widely viewed as a benefit to the economy; not a meddling danger. The orthodoxy is enforced by believers of what James Grant calls the “PhD standard.” The financial press loves the idea of a few select men guiding the economy toward peak employment. Reporters and commentators need to stay in the good graces of decision-makers to boost their own career. No one would know who Jon Hilsenrath of the Wall Street Journal is if it weren’t for his close contacts to Federal Reserve officials.
Schiff’s Austrian-minded approach to markets is a challenge to acceptable opinion, and he pays the price by burning at the stake on television. The Keynesian revolution didn’t just bring the idea that economies can be fine-tuned with the help of central planners; it brought a high-minded smugness to economic science. It taught aspiring dictators that with enough math formulas and aggressive authority, they could be gods among men. Such conceit is paid for in economic depressions, prolonged unemployment, broken family life, and general societal malaise. The misery wrought by the Keynesians consensus is paramount. Yet it’s practitioners seem immune to considering the simple proposition that their worldview could, in any way, be flawed.
Presumption, though attractive, leads to folly. Lives and fortunes have been lost in the gamble known as the stock market because of the hubris built into economic assumptions. You might think that being caught off guard by the biggest banking crisis in 80 years would force observers to show more respect toward an outsider like Peter Schiff. But then you might think that the Keynesianism belief in turning one dollar into several by spending it at the local department store is the stuff of fantasy.
Economic forecasting is a dangerous job. As Mark Twain put it in his novel Pudd’nhead Wilson, “October. This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February.” Every wrong prediction could doom a career, or a bank account. Prudence and humility are the only sound tools for building one’s reputation. The talking heads on CNBC appear to know neither. They pledge allegiance to the flag of the tinkering bureaucracy. It explains the loss of ratings, and loss of confidence in the ability of “experts” to see what’s coming down the tracks. Refusing to learn from mistakes will lead to future blunders. Pundits that don’t heed this message are doomed to fail.
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I tell you one thing: Mark Twain knew a lot on the subject; he lost a lot of money in the stock market himself.
my roomate's step-mother makes $75 hourly on the internet . She has been without a job for 5 months but last month her paycheck was $20377 just working on the internet for a few hours. Get More Info... www.Yelptrade.com
CAPTCHA would end this shit, and a lot of other shit.
Just pretend it's satire, and sit back and have a good laugh as you skim past it, all while knowing the reactions that are coming.
i will always love peter schiff, he is an awesome speaker, he got me to tnink of in ways i had never thought about things and changed my perceptions with his explanations, I will always love him, hes been spot on all along even if some people cant read a chart and get there money out of things on time his advice has been spot on,,,,,,im just waiting for him to be REALLY right and his picture will be above my fireplace next to the gun display
Solid interview of Peter with Joe Rogan earlier his year. 3 hours long!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=8IHU42j3evQ
If Gold is such a bad investment...?
Why are Russia and China buying so much phys?
Why does China and Russia have a more solid productive economy than the United States in that they are actually producing something - rather than what the US is doing namely creating value in it's dollar by coercion and extortion of forcing world markets to buy USD to then buy oil?
If Peter Schiff is so wrong why do we need the Fed to create QE to buy excess debt?
If the guy is so wrong why the market growth stemmed from businesses showing growth through stock buy backs financed from easy Fed Credit?
This is a BIG house of cards folks, I see it like CNBC is nothing more than the violinists aboard the Titanic playing and shouting more and more loudly hoping you will not get into a life raft but stay aboard the listing ship because the index is lit up like a casino.. Meanwhile as they are payed to distract you and keep you aboard the ship the insiders like the billionaires are all out of the stock market..
If the top billionaires are out of the stock market then so should you.
If you think that Gold is a depressed commodity when it's future's market is being deliberately shorted to depress phys.. then clearly you cannot see the fraud that being played before your eyes.
Peter Schiff is a cartoon character for teevee fans and is rightly ridiculed by his peers as such. Oh fuckballs he called the mortgage metldown let's praise him forever because that was something NO ONE SAW COMING, NO ONE.
http://www.cnn.com/2004/LAW/09/17/mortgage.fraud/
Rampant fraud in the mortgage industry has increased so sharply that the FBI warned Friday of an "epidemic" of financial crimes which, if not curtailed, could become "the next S&L crisis."
Friday, September 17, 2004 Posted: 5:44 CNBS gets away with routinely putting on people who are wrong about everything but made one right call in their lives so they are admired..? For predictions, Grantham/GMO is good, and not just another man-child / loud talking head..http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ai6GqIOSEWhk
The problem Schiff has is sometimes he wings it. He relies on his outstanding intellect to analyze finances from a distance, even he would admit this. Problem is sometimes you need to get down and dirty with the research.
Kyle Bass, not a huge fan of his, does the down and dirty research, knows average expansion is 6.6 years.
Schiff was out there in 2009 predicting hyperinflation when the new bubble was not even a year old. If he had done his research he would know you are looking at 5 years for the new money to work through to Main Street. In 2009 the new money was just hitting Geithners visa card.
Then you have the Fed (2008) creating huge excess reserves, $2.7 trillion, that banks can park at the Fed, collect 25 basis points, or borrow at 75 points. A permanent damper on loanable funds, killing the real interest rate for banks.
Details that you need to look at, they are game changers.
Banks parking trillions and rehypothecating the funds into the DJIA, the loss of millions of paychecks keeping inflation low, bullshit government economic numbers, all have made this boom and bust different from past booms and bust.
Will it end up the same as past booms and bust, of course. What goes up must come down. In the end Schiff will be vindicated but not before his vilification.
He screwed up on the timing. Should have done the research. He screwed up not understanding what $2.7 trillion in excess reserves will do to banking. He screwed up not understanding the affects what the loss of 10 million paychecks would have on inflation.
Homework, homework, homework. I respect Kyle Bass in this respect, the man is extremely prepared at all times. Things change. No two booms and bust are the same.
If nothing else, Schiff has a great way of explaining things with analogies. In that regard, he's able to take fairly boring and complex issues and explain them in a way that even a 10year old can understand them.
One of my favorites is how he says the "experts" have it wrong when they say deflation is bad because it causes the economy to slow down. Since a slowing economy will naturally cause demand to drop and prices to fall, deflation is a consequence of a slow economy, not the cause. And in his brilliant analogy, he says, "that's like saying 'wet sidewalks cause it to rain'". Love it. Simple, easy to grasp, and quite funny to boot.
I like Schiff because he was the first one to get me thinking non-mainstream. I lapped up the CNBC garbage up until Lehman slapped me in the face. I think his logic is sound and he has good long term advice. His problem is making predictions in a manipulated market. I don't think anyone can do that well. But he has the guts to stick to his philosophy and he will be "wrong" until he is right, and then it just won't matter. From him and others, I've learned to buy physical and largely ignore the volatility. The CNBC'ers can't comprehend a financial collapse much less the role of gold in that environment, so he's speaking greek to a bunch of 3rd graders.
Schiffs dad is locked up for his rightful hatred of the income tax system. Those values are, i am sure, passed down. Schiff is the real deal a+ in mu book
I really admire Peter Schiff, being a Keynesian, I started thinking really about the economy when I saw a podcast on youtube from him (less than a year ago tbh). He changed completely the way I saw the central banks and the way I thought the economy really worked. Thanks to him, now I understand a lot about what's going on, and I see that some things that happen in the world are completely obvious, while my Keynesian friends (I study economics, so most of my teachers and colleagues are Keynesians) just don't understand them.
If it wasn't for Peter, I wouldn't be here, and I like him a lot. I think he's a very good speaker and knows a lot about what he's saying. It's up to you to criticize him for whatever reason you want, but I don't think he's a cartoon character. Finally, remember this in 5 or 6 years: everything Peter says is right (if no major event like a war happens), as said by another commenter, he's just wrong with the timing. Give his predictions time, and all of them will be right, I'm pretty sure of it.
PS: And yes, I'm a Schiff fan :)
Care to expand on the contradiction, "being a Keynesian," and "I'm a Schiff fan?" (bearing in mind the the models based theory and the ignoring of exogenous shocks.)
He was speaking past-tense.
He is great. Even the great ones need to do their homework.
Schiff will be right eventually, because all fiat eventually goes to zero. He may even live long enough to see it happen. Of course the dollar may be replaced by an SDR. In that case everybody wins!
In the meantime people who follow Schiff have missed lots of opportunities. Some people have had to "puke up" their PMs, and have lost the opportunities and the safety that Schiff promises i.e. everything. Any middle class person who followed Schiff's advice since 2011 has gotten completely hosed. This is why CNBC trots him out. To remind the 'hosed' how they got hosed.
Getting one prediction right doesn't make a career. Schiff = broken clock or Johnny-One-Note.
I like Schiff too, but here's the thing sweetie: your thesis might be right but if your timing is wrong, you're wrong.
Trading 101.
Yeah, timing is extremely hard in a heavily manipulated market where fundamentals are of little importance and insider information rules.
When the markets -- stawks, housing, etc -- revert to the mean, I suspect he will be proven painfully right for most of those who ignored or berated him these last few years.
If you get caught without a chair when the music stops, timing won't mean much...
I like Schiff too, but here's the thing sweetie: your thesis might be right but if your timing is wrong, you're wrong.
Trading 101.
Tell Cypriots, or Argentinians, or Venezuelans, or Iranians, or Russians, that Schiff's timing was wrong.
This thread is unfair. Schiff resists timing, denounces timing. When cornered, he yields to weakness and gives a range. That's not the same as calling a top or bottom.
Ok, 3 hrs is a big investment of time, but I found this a hugely interesting discussion. Schiff plays the part most of us here on ZH would support in defending the free market against government corruption.
Joe Rogan partly plays the part of an unconvinced statist, and partly plays the devil's advocat. But he is at least an honest interviewer.
I highly reccommend viewing, even if you have to set aside a 3 hrs you can ill afford from your preps. :-)
If you are on a tablet and condense the screen enough, you will realize that the comment spam is the least obnoxious. The new banner ads are like a gauntlet to fight through to get to the good stuff (comments).
Download Mercury for iPad. It's free.
Zerohedge ads are getting very obnoxious these days; more then 80% of my page is covered with ads for everything ... mutuals funds, dating services, clothing, and so on. Mostly crap.
Quit bitching and install an adblocker.
Do you need mommy to hold your hand and help?
FFS
ADBLOCKER PLUS works just dandy for me. Never see an ad.
And it's free.
I have told you before and I will tell you again. At $75 per hour she would have to work 271 hours in a month to get the $20,377. So how is this just a few hours ?
You go to the trouble of calculating that his shit doesn't even add up? Respect, man, I've always been to lazy to do even that.
And in defence of this moron and his roommate and his roommate's stepmother I must say it takes guts to keep posting this kind of drivel on this kind of site. Wonder how many ZH'ers he's already made rich?
You will know when the TSHTF because this will cease when it does.
As long as you see these repeated invariably incomprehensible postings about easy internet riches posted on ZH it's up up and away and get the fuck out the way.
I do wonder what snake-oil they peddle at the provided link that enables them to monetise naivety.
I don't see the point of working, when all we have to do is to follow this guy's advice and start sleeping on a pile of money...
I wonder why this fucker doesn't get banned for spam. Hmm? Any guesses?
You can reply all you want ot the BJ clown.
It's a bot. Designed to discredit ZH and discourage the readers.
Dont waste your time and mine.
her sore sore mouth... poor girl.. 271 hours of blowjobs and hooking.. my!
Many users today came forward with a claim their roommate's mother made $75/hr. My question was whether the rate included a group discount.
Should it have?
Yep we know all about her flappy vagina is looser than Dumbo's Elelphant Ears whats your point?
I forget where I read it now but it was a quote that made me laugh out loud.
"Dat gurls piss-flaps be tuffer than a Gawgia loggers boot."
Nuff said.
I bang your roommate's step mother. I charge her $80.00 per hour.
CNBC?
SCHIFF?
CNBC = media arm of "The Church of the Holy Sepulcher of Debt" where being immoral and unethical makes you a high priest or priestess.
All hail Mammon! All hail the Golden ETF HFT Calf! Satan bless the leveraged derivative casino!
That is what CNBC is all about; with the odd exception here and there.
Upvote for the gold in the calf
This is a great point. Add to this list Sir Isaac Newton, Irving Fisher and many others over the years who have been bagged in bubbles.
As Mark Twain put it: "It ain't what you don't know that kills you. It's what you know for certain that just ain't so."
Peter is the man. Enough said!
Today they Ron Insaneman telling us why the year-end rally is just beginning! Why have a reason? It's all happy talk.
CNN makes huge new blunder- confuses Osama with Obama during SEAL coverage
http://tinyurl.com/kl25xax
Scott Nations is an arrogant jerk. I believe Peter a whole lot more than Scott Nations. Peter will be proven right soon.
Then Scott Nations can apologize to him on CNBC, along with that cunt Jackie DeAngelis !!
Schiff goes on these talk shows for one reason.....to get more customers and make himself some more money. He isn't doing anybody any favors. Although I think he is brilliant, I find it hilarious that he is getting stuffed. I much prefer someone like Jim Rogers, a man who isn't selling anything but is just giving his opinion.
They say lawyers are the most hated profession... I don't think so. I think it might be salesmen who are hated even more so, especially ones with intelligence and genuine opinions. So the man has something of value to sell.. So? Why let that diminish what else the man has to offer? If anything, you should respect him more for actually having something of value that he sells. It seems to me that does a lot for an economy that is otherwise in the shitter. Meh, it's probably not important, I just wanted to mention it.
Schiff makes his money by making money for his clients. I'm one and he's done me plenty of favors. For anyone who doesn't know, selling gold is is just a side show for Schiff at Euro Pacific Capital. If you are interested in preserving your wealth take a look at all he has to offer. That is if you have any wealth to begin with. I sense a large percentage of you are broke based on your commentary.
It is funny to see him get stuffed...but even funnier when he steamrolls over the moderator or another guest. In a few years when his new series of "Peter Schiff was right" videos are up on Youtube he'll have the last laugh.
Rogers is entertaining but more often than not all he contributes is non-commital gibberish leaving me wonder why he agreed to be interviewed in the first place.
Yep real great stuff.. shitty funds, exorbitant fees and awful returns. Euro pacific capital iz so awsum!
http://quotes.morningstar.com/fund/EPIVX/f?t=EPIVX
http://quotes.morningstar.com/fund/EPHAX/f?t=EPHAX
http://quotes.morningstar.com/fund/EPGFX/f?t=EPGFX
Shhhhh. Don't tell no one. Even the cynics need their superheroes.
Sadly the cynics are as naive as everyone else.
Schiff is a permabear stopped clock that predicts recessions that will eventually happen anyway because of the economic cycle. He's no better than the permabulls who always predict good times ahead.
anyone who knows that macro economic policy is flawed and will lead to capital destruction kinda sounds like that.
Whats your fuckin point?
'Schiff is a permabear stopped clock that predicts recessions that will eventually happen anyway because of the economic cycle. He's no better than the permabulls who always predict good times ahead."...
And if you don't like the slow methodical conservative steady hand of Austrian "truth" and you prefer to "win the lottery" every time the likes of Cramer, Liesman and Bartiromo tell you to buy the latest then by all means stick with "the beautiful people" who will lose you everything when depression eventually happens!
Funny that someone who goes by the name Capitalist can be so wrong...we are no longer in an "economic cycle" and there is no recovery on the horizon. Simply stated, the debt over hang on the entire globe, driven by governments and central banks through expansive creation of fiat currency and fraud, has destroyed true capital formation and allocation. Systemic changes are required and although Schiff understands TPTB don't have the will to do the right thing, it doesn't stop him from pointing out the failures and explaining the solution to the problem.
I just don't see why people keep talking about this "economic cycle". Which economic cycle?? Why is it supposed that we have to live in boom-to-burst cycles?? I just don't get it. In my opinion there are no cycles. What has happened for many years is the result of fed's boom-to-compensate-the-burst policies, and that's not a natural cycle, it's artificially provoked. The thing is, we're heading to the last burst. I read somewhere (or maybe it was Peter himself the one who said it?) that the last bubble is the government one. After that bubble the economy collapses as there are no other bubble to compensate it. Guess in which bubble we're in...
Here's the deal with Peter Schiff. His heart is in the right place and he is honest.
Furthermore, his father is in fucking PRISON because of the illegal despotic tax fraud-system that Zionists foisted on to my country. Anyone doing time on a tax beef is a fucking hero in my book.
I think people need to focus on principles rather than predictions. Peter's principles on gold, debt and the rest are fine but we need to understand that predictions are momentarily derailed by the smoke, mirrors and alchemy of the central banks.
Stick to core principles and worry about timing only if you are trading.
Unfortunately "trading" is what we are doing all day, trading is what is important
I don't mean to be an ass, but perhaps you should consider broadening your skill set.
Thank you for saying that. It needs to be said more often.
Suffice it to say, timing is a bitch. One should never proffer a forecast if they wish to maintain credibility. Jim Rogers is a perfect example of this. ;-)
Is Peter related to the Schiffs of Warburg, Rockefeller, Rothschilds fame? Or a black sheep?
"Jacob Schiff began his quest to take over the money supply of America by purchasing an interest in a banking concern in Indiana called Kuhn and Loeb. He married the daughter of Loeb, bought out the interest of Kuhn and as sole owner of Kuhn and Loeb, moved the business to New York in the late 19th century.
" Jacob Schiff was not exactly welcomed with open arms by the financial potentates led by the House of Morgan then controlling the financial markets in New York. Schiff, as the Rothschild’s agent in America, gradually was able to build a working relationship with the other banking houses in New York by sharing some Rothschild bonds and stock business with them.
"Schiff was so successful in being accepted as a player in the N.Y. Banking scene that in 1908 he was among a handful of NY bankers who gathered at Jekyll Island, one of the House of Morgan’s homes located in Georgia. These financial wizards plotted to take over the money supply of America. They had no small task before them."
Who Stole America?
In July 1918, Illuminati Jewish banker Jacob Schiff sent a direct order thru US diplomatic channels to the Bolsheviks in Russia to murder Czar Nicholas II and his family.This very hidden historical fact, as well as the decision-making process behind the murder of the Czar's family, is described in the book "Under The Sign Of The Scorpion" by Jyri Lina. Below is a short excerpt:
The order to murder the Tsar and his family actually came from New York. Lenin had hardly any say in the matter. The Bolsheviks had been forced to flee from Yekaterinburg in such haste that they had no time to destroy all the telegraph strips. Those strips were later found in the telegraph house. Nikolai Sokolov [author of a detailed investigation carried out in 1919 under the authority of "White" (anti-Communist) leader Alexander Kolchak] took care of them but could not decipher the telegrams. This was done only in 1922 by a group of experts in Paris. Sokolov then discovered that the strips were extremely revealing, since they dealt with the murder of the Tsar and his family.
- See more at: http://www.henrymakow.com/jacob_schiff_ordered_murder_of.html#sthash.l2w... In July 1918, Illuminati Jewish banker Jacob Schiff sent a direct order thru US diplomatic channels to the Bolsheviks in Russia to murder Czar Nicholas II and his family.This very hidden historical fact, as well as the decision-making process behind the murder of the Czar's family, is described in the book "Under The Sign Of The Scorpion" by Jyri Lina. Below is a short excerpt:
The order to murder the Tsar and his family actually came from New York. Lenin had hardly any say in the matter. The Bolsheviks had been forced to flee from Yekaterinburg in such haste that they had no time to destroy all the telegraph strips. Those strips were later found in the telegraph house. Nikolai Sokolov [author of a detailed investigation carried out in 1919 under the authority of "White" (anti-Communist) leader Alexander Kolchak] took care of them but could not decipher the telegrams. This was done only in 1922 by a group of experts in Paris. Sokolov then discovered that the strips were extremely revealing, since they dealt with the murder of the Tsar and his family.
- See more at: http://www.henrymakow.com/jacob_schiff_ordered_murder_of.html#sthash.l2w...While I do believe in illuminatis... sorry, this time I don't think Peter is an illuminati at all (a free-market illuminati?? Does that even exist??)
Schiff spent some time near the end of his radio show explaining he was not related to Jacob Schiff. He had received this kind of anti-semitic question and dealt with it on the air in a neutral tone, without heat.
"No one likes an ideologue wedded to a philosophy to the point of redundancy."
Well said, Mises of Canada. Now go invest with Peter. What, you have no money left but he took 2 and 20 telling you to short the market for the last 4 years? No worries. He'll surely not kick you and tell you to get a job when he sees you in the street. Oh wait.
when you dont have the job, kicking you in a butt to get one is actualy a humanitarian action
Even when you're kicking the guy with an italian boot you paid for with his lost investment? Nice philosophy.
Peter Schiff's unnofficial "belief" was that owning the stock market was a heck of a lot better than owning bonds or owning cash. And he's been proven right over the past few years. But he prefers gold. So please, don't misrepresent what he's been saying. He has not been telling people to go short. Short selling makes up pretty much none of his public repetoire.
Come back when you can prove any of his (EuroPac's) funds take 2 and 20 (a link to an official prospectus for example), dumbshit
A little off topic, here is what happens when idiots decide to vote themselves a pay raise and have sub-par mandated health care coverage forced upon them.
Future of "Merica"
http://www.hastingstribune.com/november/news1105burgerking.php
I think Peter has not only made great calls, but has a brilliant economic intellect, class, and a ton of common sense. To those pigeons looking for french fry tip on the Contrarain News Bubble Channel that mock Peter, are the problem. They are the ones that feed the moronic stock pimps paraded day in day on this network...
Pete is a good dude
Just another Neocon.
Peter Schiff on Iran: Just blow the place up.
http://youtube.com/watch?v=ujF0--nZsjw
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PDf-QXKFssw
Schiff will ultimately be proven right. His time estimate has been wrong because he has underestimated the power of the central banks and governments, but that doesn't meant that the house of cards won't come down as he expects. It will come down, and not too distant in the future. Hang in there and don't sell any gold or silver if you don't have to.
Schiff's "Austrian-minded approach" has also been wrong enough for him to get laughed at on TV. You'd think that would teach him that his austrian minded approach is not the correct explanation. But some people just can't resist blowing Mises.
I'm actually convinced he's right in believing that the current system is not sustainable. What irks me about Schiff is three things: 1) he's smug, 2) he's been wrong more than right and won't admit it, and 3) he profits from being wrong by charging clients for his advice and he doesn't give a shit that he's bankrupted people, because that's how he rolls. His philosophy respects one thing -- the guy who makes the most money was right, even if it meant taking it from others based on being wrong.
I respect people who put their money where their mouth is. Peter makes money with his mouth, like the rest of these fucking bankers.
you are way the fuck off
Oh, now I see. Thanks for explaining that.
Yes, I always like a solid counterargument.
I'd take up the gauntlet myself, LTER, but I'm too tired now, so you would simply bury me. Oh well, there'll be another day to fight each other, won't there?
I concur. Also I think his gold inflation and dollar collapse scenario occurs after a more destructive deflationary wave washed over the world of leverage of unproductive assets.
Well you've only hit 2 out of those 3 things - and that's only for lack of opportunity I'd say
But this
His philosophy respects one thing -- the guy who makes the most money was right
really puts you onto the clown car!
Congrats, even I didn't expect LTER could sink so low.
Rand doesn't understand the first rule of speculating:
The house always wins. It doesn't matter if you run the game from a pickup truck bed or a glittering casino, the house takes their percentage.
He thinks life should be like modern elementary school where you should get a blue ribbon just for showing up.
Of course, his income derived from added costs is somehow more meritorious than everyone else's income.
They really do think like that.
so true, austrian "economics" doesnt apply anymore, hasnt for a very long time.
fuck you
Santelli is an exception on CNBS.
His one fault, like mine, is that he gets very passionate about his position which doesn't come across as well as it should.
But if you can see and understand that, he is your man!
Joe_in_Indiana, you’re so brainwashed.
Here's an old post by Cognitive Dissonance that come across the real issue:
The absolute best controlled opposition is one that doesn't know they are controlled. The way I see it Santelli's problem (shared by the vast majority in the financial field of which I am a part) is that he honestly believes in the system itself and feels that it has been hijacked and corrupted. In other words, just remove the cancerous tissue and the body will be fine.
Sorry Rick........but the system can never be cancer free. The system IS the cancer.
Yes, Santelli is all for the established, economic order. He just wants to tweak policy here and there. I submit, he couldn't be a regular on CNBC if he didn't believe that way. Would CNBC hire Schiff as a paid contributor? Never.
Escrava Isaura,
I am not brainwashed.
I grew up in Chicago like Rick Santelli, in a different neighborhood and several years difference.
He and I do see the various diseases through that personal history of growing up in a corrupt city that Chicago gave to me and my family personally.
I remember his "Rant" on my wife's birthday over 5 years ago - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bEZB4taSEoA .
My Jesuit training is in me as a guide to keep striving to "remove the cancerous tissue and the body will be fine".
It will never be totally "fine", but it will be, I believe, on a better path for all.
So why is Santelli still working at the BlowHorn then?
He is nothing but controlled opposition.
You ain't wrong Joe.
The system could get along pretty well if it hadn't contracted a couple of long lasting diseases that compromised it's own immune system back in 1913.
The FED RES Act and the Income Tax Act.
Both allowed the insane expansion of a central govt. and all the poisons that issue from it that helps the cancerous cells grow until it overwhelms the patient and put it on life support.
Cog's right only insofar as the patient and the cancers are indistinguishable at this point.
We're looking at a 100 year long death rattle and I'm not too sure the baby that will be born to take it's place is gonna be all that healthy either.
Those midwifes with Kevlar vests and MRAPS make me a bit nervous that this baby will have some mighty big teeth and a bad disposition.
I still love that Jew!
When adjusted for unprosecuted fraud projection is still intact. Himpton Doctrine.
Love shciff! Should have never gotten into selling gold. Made it personal. Still, the man is fucking smart! Gold, comm and mining will come back once stocks and bonds are sliced in half. Peter is human. Like all of us. In the end, he motivated and incauraged many--myslef included. Once this house of cards comes down, he will be vindicated.
Love shciff! Should have never gotten into selling gold. Made it personal. Still, the man is fucking smart! Gold, comm and mining will come back once stocks and bonds are sliced in half. Peter is human. Like all of us. In the end, he motivated and incauraged many--myslef included. Once this house of cards comes down, he will be vindicated.
Thanks to an early call on consumer price inflation and the price of gold, he still finds himself the joke of many a CNBC broadcasts.
There...I fixed it for you.
Speaking of CNBC foibles, am I crazy or does everybody on CNBC think bond duration = bond maturity? Fascinating how they use the word duration on this channel. Or am I tuned in only when the idiots are holding forth? Pet peeve!
If we regard keynesians as steady-state/continuity bias imbeciles, as we should, it makes sense that they would convert the dynamic duration into the static maturity.
Heard some investment advisors on the radio today who seemed to think duration was maturity. Put yourself in the hands of those pros! Take my money! Please!
I think Schiff has a lot more money than most of you who don't like him.
maybe you could all lern something from him.
Jamie Dimon has more money than Peter. Shall we learn from both of them?
The only prediction you can safely make is that predictions will never cease.
Schiff's theory was that the US dollar would implode when foreign countries decided to dump their US stocks and bonds. So far, that hasn't happened. His mistake was concentrating on the sins of the US government and ignoring the fact that other governments are doing things equally bad or worse. At this point, the chances for a yen or euro implosion seem higher than the chances for a dollar implosion. Or one currency might implode and take the others with it.
In any case, although Schiff's theory has so far turned out to be wrong, it was an interesting theory and at least it gave people something to think about. Other forecasters offer give vague advice based (probably) on nothing more than their mood at the moment.
So I always like listening to Schiff even though his investment advice hasn't been particularly timely.
Peter Schiff is the man.
His work output is astounding. Just think. Creating and running multiple companies in the chaotic rough and tumble financial world. Hundreds of hours of intelligent oratory in podcasts and radio programs. Appearances on countless talk shows doing battle with hostile half-wits. Writing newsletters and long complex interesting books. All while his elderly dying father is rotting in some cage in the gulags of the most evil fascist country in history.
His recent book, The Real Crash (2012), is quite good. Much discussion of currency / money / gold. Worth it for just "Appendix II: A Brief History of Money in America". The book could almost be used as a textbook in finance and economic history.
If ZH had a patron saint I would nominate Peter Schiff.
Fun fact: Per Wikipeda - Saint Matthew is the patron saint of Salemo, Italy, bankers and tax collectors. Not sure what that means.
similar to the debauchery of Bob Prechter, who is also wrong more often than not, but does not run a hedge fund. its perfectly rational to say the market should behave this way (if only the market was a free market like you thought it was) the jails are full of people who were certain their victims (and the court - of public opinion) would act rationally according to the facts in the case.
bloomberg, cnbc, and fox all have crappy tapes. i bounce around on all of them. investors business daily is the best place to get real news. oh, check out kesslercompanies.com, he's probably the best.
The jerks dump on Schiff because 5 years ago he said, "gold will probably do such-and-such in about 5 years".
Then, 30 seconds after 5 years pass they throw Schiff into a wood chipper because it didn't happen on schedule (almost to the day).
Of course, they ignore the fact that Schiff said "about 5 years", they ignore the massive manipulation of precious metal prices via highly leveraged paper gold schemes by central banks and their agents (JPM and others), and spin anything they can to discredit Schiff.
The bottom line is, like absolutely everyone on the planet, Schiff sometimes guesses timeframes incorrectly. I sure have, and don't know anyone who hasn't, especially since the world economy became overwhelmingly manipulated by central banksters, governments and huge financial corporations (for their own profit).
The Schiff attackers ignore the [usually] excellent analogies Schiff invents to accurately explain topics and events for "regular folks". And they try to ignore the fact that Schiff explains the actual causes of events better than any other regular guest.
Sure, Schiff isn't perfect. But he's a lot closer than anyone else on those shows... which admittedly is a bit of a low bar to clear.
Fundamentally, the reason they hate Schiff is, he tries to be honest. That's the worst sin any modern intellectual can make... as far as other imposter intellectuals are concerned.
-----
PS: Sometimes his errors aren't even errors. For example, they now ridicule Schiff for saying the dollar is trash and will lose value. They point at the DXY or dollar versus some other fiat currency as proof. But... what is the actual fact? While the DXY rises, are the products you buy at the store falling in price? No? That's right, they're soaring through the roof, which we notice every time we shop. Which means, the value of the dollar actually is in fact falling (and not slowly)... even as the DXY soars. The other pundits (except Santelli fairly often) are 100% disingenuous... on purpose.
Agree with everything you said.
I want to add that Peter's "Decoupling" theory was also way off, and I had expected so from the start, because it assumes
a) a kind of "everything moves in a straight line, at least over a longer time frame" and
b) more important that corrupt TPTB would not resort to outright sabotage of every competitor especially when they realize their ship is irrecoverably sinking.
But apart from this the best joke is right now the decoupling theory is making a comeback (not by Schiff) this time for dollar strengthening, as pundits jump on anything that could make up a plausible narrative.
I presume there will be one last massive stampede into the US Dollar (and treasuries) and then it finally implodes. (I'm not going to go out on a limb and put a timeframe on that.)
Will Western TPTB be able to destroy every other country's economy with them? That is the difficult question to answer - they sure will try to do so, it's already starting.
According to Jim Rickards, who game-theoried financial war scenarios with the Pentagon, a rebellion is taking place against the dollar, which is no real news to anyone here, but his claims of shifting global alliances against the dollar are growing much faster in the OPEC countries which are the mainstay of the dollars potency.
Taken individually, they don't look like much, but looked at cumulatively, they are a powerful attack on the dollars domination on world trade.
Add in the razor thin walk of the overleveraged TBTF banks and CB's in general, and a tipping point may not be as far out in the future as most suspect it will be.
And Peter Schiff and the Austrians will be right again.
You can't outrun massive credit bubbles by shifting their locations and it takes energy to flout gravity.
You've avoided the 2nd round effect questions:
What happens after the tipping point was reached? Suddenly any remaining interconnectedness is used as a weapon, and any belief there already will be no major interdependency left at that time is naive.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/07/us-ecb-noyer-idUSKBN0IR0ML20141107
IMF, US encourage Japan, ECB monetary stimulus
PARIS (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund and the United States encouraged the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan toward greater monetary stimulus on Friday and urged governments around the world to do their share to cultivate growth in their countries.
Calling the world economy "fragile, brittle and fragmented", IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde told a conference of central bankers in Paris it was "perfectly legitimate and appropriate" for the ECB and the BoJ to take unconventional steps to combat low inflation and economic stagnation.
U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said central banks "need to be prepared to employ all available tools, including unconventional policies, to support economic growth and reach their inflation targets," especially where governments have withdrawn fiscal stimulus.
The comments came a day after the European Central Bank ordered its staff to start preparing for bolder measures if needed to fight slowing inflation, on top of a range of rate cuts, asset purchases and lending operations already agreed.
However, Indian central bank governor Raghuram Rajan said whether "more stimulus is the answer" was a good question. More economic reforms were equally important, he said.
Lagarde said governments with healthy budget positions should do more to support growth, describing as insufficient a German announcement of an extra 10 billion euros in spending on public infrastructure over the next three years.
"In this part of the world, we have to repeat over and over that monetary policy cannot be the only game in town, and that there has to be a combination of sound fiscal policies, use of fiscal space for those countries that have fiscal space in order to support growth and rejuvenate that growth," she said.
"Clearly, the announcement that was made yesterday was in the very small ballpark of what will be needed in order to do that."
ECB Governing Council member Christian Noyer said central banks, including his own, should be prepared to buy public debt if needed to avert deflation or a run on sovereign bonds.
"Such an action may be vindicated if there are risks to macroeconomic or financial stability or even if self-fulfilling runs on public debt may be a threat to market access, or lastly to avoid the deflationary consequences of a public debt event," Noyer told the conference.
Thanks for posting. These mother fuckers are sick.
"Calling the world economy "fragile, brittle and fragmented"
We need more of the policy that made it that way.
Absolutely fucking brilliant.
Lets put it this way, the American people have more or less woken up to the fact that the entire govt is one con-job organization designed to deprive them on a long time line of life, liberty and property.
Thats pretty much a given at this point, the people working in govt , in a vast majority are there to "self-serve", they are there to make connections and take funny money bribes through back-doors to pass laws that their owners want them to pass.
Its all out in the open, you really dont have to have much of an imagination to really connect the dots that are right there infront of you.
So now, the question of is gold over-taking the dollar as some kind of international settlement currency? is a resounding YES, the only question is , how much hemorrhaging can this system take before it collapses and reveals everything for what it really is?
Could be 10 years , Could be tomorrow, or maybe every other nation will fall apart before ours and we will be the only ones to survive the coming collapse, who knows.
Don't be so sure about that. I've already had a few people , different walk if life, educated, hard workers, good people come up to me this week very ecstatic that the Repubs won. My answer , which they already should have known I would have given them. Just caused awkward silence.
If more people see the System for what it is, we must thank the internet and those like ZH who use it well.
The mainline media have totally capitulated, even such stalwarts as the BBC, and now these are just spokesmen for the so called 'Western' official position. I am very dissapointed in particular with BBC who used to be the gold standard ( except in times of war which is now all the time.)
A prophet by definition is ignored and ridiculed for years before his prognostications come to pass. The young turk financial wizards are so sure that there will be no "Payday at the end of the road."
Peter Shill....at least you can carry losses forward.
Good article! About time somebody stood up for Peter Schiff. I've had the priveledge of having my very first week of playing in the stock market this week. Sure didn't get rich, but I didn't completely loose my ass either. And, in part, I think it was the thoughts and advice from guys like Peter Schiff, Gerald Celente, Max Keyser and other "realists" that helped me see though a lot of the "stock forecasters" bullshit so that I didn't just throw money out the window. It's a brave new world in the stock market. Corrupt, manipulated and a pretty scary place. But being REAL and looking at things as they are for real will make it a place where you can survive and maybe even prosper.
Thanks for this article and thanks for giving Mr.Schiff some love...the poor guy needs a good hug every now and then for just sticking to his guns. Hang in there Peter!
If Schiff gets burned it's because Keynesians are witchhunting anybody trying to defend their collapsing dgoma. But he is a big boy and can take care of himself very well.
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The man has balls to keep going on these shows knowing full well he's being set-up to look like a baffoon.
And yet he still manages to hold his own time and again.
We need more like him.
These Keynisians. Who the fuck are they anyway? They have names like Dimon and Blankfein. Making Schiff look like a fool is the least of their crimes. They should be hung. Aw never mind. Their power is waning fast. Just look at their inability to control like in the past. No more control over the Americas like with the Monroe doctrine. Russia out of control. Europe leaving the fold fast. No. These Keynesians' with NAMES house of cards is soon to collapse completely unless algos can save them LOL
why the fuck is Schiff waisting his time with these lumps on CNBC?
I have followed (watched) Mr. Schiff since 2006. LetThemEatRand has a point about Schiff's ego. Not that other personality's ego's aren't swollen as well, but I digress. Peter Schiff would have gained himself a following - and likely a Senate seat, had he taken a slightly less off-putting approach. The truth could still have easily been delivered with 'punch', but toned-down and 'humbled' slightly. Being right gains respect. Being right And humble brings an army to do your bidding -
Contrary to some folks supposition, the meek do not inherit the Earth. At least not in their lifetimes.
The meek inherit the crumbs from the table.
It takes an inordinate amount of confidence to be a public speaker or a have a passionate drive that overcomes a natural reticence to expose oneself to public ridicule by placing your opinions out in mass media where everyone can take potshots at you.
This ain't a game for shrinking violets and to expect someone not to have a certain surity of opinion is ridiculous.
This is why you don't see mice lecturing to cats.
Confident assertion to make a persuasive case, on one hand, and repetitious arrogant blathering over others who are in the midst of making a point are not the same thing.
That said, I think Peter has gained some humility over recent years. Hopefully, it's not temporary when the markets turn his way.
Also, the way the Feds totally, criminally screwed his Dad leaves me wondering how Peter can not think of other criminal conspiracies that affect his interests.
Has there been a time other than pre-colonial America, when people or corporations or governments with unlimited wealth and power weren't the reason for the collapse of civilization? I dream of a day when, a civilization of people exists without money, and if not then a civilization that exists where a cap is placed on all entities and governments cease to exist.
At this time the United States of America does not have a government it is a nation-state and the names of the people that run it are not known to its citizens. This can only end in disaster. Why? Because people are using money and power to control technology in ways that people 30,000 years ago would if they were cloned into society the way it is today. People are just as primative but technology is neither good or evil. Its power continues to expand and at ever faster rates. Wealth must be redistributed and then limited to all entities. Title to wealth and its limitation can be achieved through crypto-currencies.
Ancient Egypt had a decent standard of living, from what I have read. And they stuck to a complex barter system, and never used cash.
Not such a complex system.
Hi, I'm your pharaoh. You see that pile of rocks over there...
Yeh John Lennon wrote a song about that....
So your okay with stealing as long as you're the one who benefits?
Somehow I don't see your faith in technology as a substitute for ethics.
I'd prefer a system of merit where stealing is discouraged vigorously. This puts me in the camp of 'limited libertarians'.
There's always going to be those who are more adept at amassing capital just as there is always a better tennis player. Cutting a leg off the good tennis players is not much of a solution.
Making them win honestly works better for me.
Thin air fiat money and credit in control of private banks cuts the leg off the regular and lousy tennis players.
Amputation free capitalism is a much better way to spread the wealth around. You sell more shoes.
I know Schiff is just another relative of an insider, but I also believe he's a true believer. He's stood and endured the CNBC tripe all through this fake market, and I'm sure it hasn't increased his fund either.
In my book, he's earned his stripes.
Christian financial advisor
Www.christianfinancialadvisor.net
Christian financial advisors
His Dad is an insider alright.
Inside the big house.
Schiff is often right about macroeconomics - he nailed the housing bubble and the crash of 2008-2009 - but he gives terrible investment advice. He knew the crash was coming, so how did he position himself in 2007-2008? Long gold, gold stocks, emerging markets. Short treasuries and the dollar. He got killed. I think his fund was down 80% or so. He's surely recovered some since then, but I doubt he's kept up with the S&P.
An interesting guy to listen to. Investement advice, not so much.
+1 to ya Schiff ;-)
There are two types of people who have money left: don't the follow the herd or follow the herd without their mentality.
I know bad things are going to happen because the whole economic sysem is fucked up. I think its that way because TPTB decision makers are looking to create a world feudal/fascist system. Thats my macroeconomics. Who can time the fuckups and burst bubbles that will happen along the way? Its like being a ponzi scheme rider and even an insider can get a nasty surprise. To stay real I look for every way to get off this increasingly screwed up grid run by con artists, tyrants and fools. All people who hope to remain decent, including Schiff, should get out of the business of managing other peoples money.
There's no such thing as bad publicity
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sgRGBNekFIw
The Keynesians are in charge until the Austrians will be proven right.
I don't see that Peter Schiff has been proven wrong about anything yet. He said the governments would go on a printing spree in response to the crash he predicted. That would result in higher prices. Seems reasonable that his final, easiest prediction, is going to logically follow. I think the dollar bugs are just ticked because every single fundamental prediction made by the hard money advocates came true or is coming true--Right down to the USD being ditched in global trade. Higher gold prices in fiat and debt collapse vs gold, those are easy predictions from here. That is just going to happen. People can bash Peter all they want and ask why it has not happened. That is why it is called a prediction. If you drop a rock down a well, you can bet on when you will hear the impact, not if it will hit the bottom. That is just the way things work. Living in a land of make believe is a personal choice. It is a form of denial. It amounts to quitting or lying down in front of wolves. The rest of the world is really competing to amass wealth and power, not paper. Gold demand is infinite in conditions of dying government paper...and dying government. Peter is merely explaining how the real world works.
This post is entirely too rational.
Can you tone it down a bit, please?
It's Saturday.
Peter Schiff has been criticized for his rising inflation prediction that hasn't occurred in a broad range of prices. Inflation is showing up in rising essentials like food prices at around 20% yearly.
The Fed can't manipulate the price of this essential need as it has done to energy, gold and silver. Inflation hasn't affected all the other prices because consumers are scared and resisting spending on non-essentials - common in a deflationary spiral.
But food prices tell the tale as foreigners dump their dollars for physical assets in America expanding the money supply and fueling inflation in food prices. Anything manipulated by the Fed or ignored by the public as non-essential is not affected by inflation.
Peter needs to explain why inflation is not showing up in a broad range of prices. We have 20% food price inflation and many households are spending nearly half their income on food.
Peter is right about inflation but only reflected in food. Peter should explain the suppressed oil, gold and silver prices as criminal bahavior of our hidden EU organized crime rulers.
There is no substitute for a constant money supply that's backed by PMs that insure against Fed counterfeiting.
We're about to reset from stage seven of worthless paper currency to stage one of genuine gold-backed money as Mike Maloney describes in his Seven Stages of Empire.
The repeated cycle of Monetary History as described by Peter Schiff and Mike Malloney is a hard thing to argue against.
Schiff is a salesman, he's promoting his firm and his precious metals dealership. He sells gloom in order to sell gold. He'll be bearsih on US and bullish on metals regardless of the data. When gold was 1800 he was screaming buy gold. When dollar index was 70 he said it'd drop to 20 soon.
He's a broken clock, he was right in 2008 but even that is questionable because he bet that Europe and Asia would outperorm US and dollar (even the name of his comany is EuroPacific capital, meaning he's bullish on Europe and Asia).
Basically everything he says take with a grain of salt, he's not an economic advisor, but just a guy with his agenda.
Peter Schiff has lost a lot of credibility with his almost arrogantly shaking off the idea that markets are rigged and controlled. He has on at least several occasions ridiculed the idea of some conspiracy controlling the markets. He mocked the 9-11 truth movement during his senate run by comparing them to people who still believe Elvis is alive. Whether or not he really believes what he says who knows, but to me it smells like an agenda.
Zero Hedge is once again projecting out two false schools and asking you th choose.
Choose neither.
I'm a big believer in reform schools.
It worked for me. Not that it reformed me much, but I made a lot of good budding criminal aquaintences there.
A pity none of them made it to the big time on Wall St.