This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Is the Smart Money Prepping for an S&P 500 Collapse to 450?
The Fed and other Central Banks have done everything they can to convince investors to buy stocks.
They’ve cut interest rates over 500 times, with some region’s now actually charging depositors for the right to park their cash.
They’ve bought over $10 trillion worth of bonds in varying forms of QE, perverting the price of “risk” across the board with the hope investors would move into risk assets.
It worked for a time. Those who had a lot of money to begin with (the top 0.1%) rode the rally that has seen stocks more than triple from their 2009 lows.
It’s not working anymore. The wealthy and superwealthy are now actively dumping stocks and moving into just about anything else.
To whit:
- Gold bars ($300K+ per unit kind) are selling at a record pace, having risen over 200% from the year before.
- The contemporary art market broke above annual sales of $2 billion for the first time in history, rising over 40% from last year.
- Luxury real estate sales are hitting new records globally with some projects selling for over $5,000 per sq. foot in London and other cities.
- Billionaires are sitting on record amounts of cash. They’d rather earn nothing or even be charged than own stocks.
What does this tell us about the stock market today? If the people who have benefitted the most from this raging bull market are moving OUT of stocks and into literally ANYTHING ELSE including cash, which is currently yielding next to nothing?
Bear in mind, institutional investors have also been net sellers of stocks for all of 2014. And the individuals who know about their companies than anyone (corporate insiders) are unloading shares at a pace not seen since the height of the Tech Bubble?
These people know the gravy train is about to run off the rails and they’re looking for safety. They don’t care if they miss out on another 5% gain in the stock market, they want to get out of stocks NOW.
Wonder why?
If you’ve yet to take action to prepare for the second round of the financial crisis, we offer a FREE investment report Financial Crisis "Round Two" Survival Guide that outlines easy, simple to follow strategies you can use to not only protect your portfolio from a market downturn, but actually produce profits.
You can pick up a FREE copy at:
http://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/roundtwo.html
Best Regards
Phoenix Capital Research
- advertisements -
Given an infinite amount of time, an infinite number of monkeys pecking away at an infinite number of word processors will reproduce all the world's great literature. Which has obvious parallels to stock market predicitions.
The interesting questions are always "when" and "by how much". Since neither the monkeys nor the prognostigators really have much to say on those two questions, their spew is pretty much useless.
http://www.christianfinancialadvisor.ca/
Christian financial advisors
Does Bruce ever have any positive insights...the world is always going to crash...and you need his insights on how to prosper! Is there ever any data to support how right he has been in the past?
Jim
Certainly.
Big rush on van Gogh pita's.
They are all off to make their fortunes in
https://www.academia.edu/9161420/Pita_as_Art
Why ?
Because humans don't want to become smarter.
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com/2014/10/prodigies-update-ii.html
Buy your own island like Larry Ellison .
Wishful thinking .
The Neo-Vikings will get you .
Better hope for
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com/2014/11/laundry-economics.html
No.
That giant "M for murder" followed by this runnup to new highs, in the opposite direction from what should have been the Mother of All Bloodbaths -- that has got to be the most striking chart in the history of charting.
I don't know what to make of it. I guess that unprecedented worldwide and coordinated actions by the developed world's central banks throwing trillions in liquidity at the markets can, indeed, move them to new highs.
Yay. Okay, so now what? That's a question that leaves a sick feeling in the pit of my stomach.
Based on the chart, I see S&P at 0 at some point in the future. It may even go negative :)
same arguements for the most part were made in 80's and 90's...GOLD will save you LOFL
The S&P 500 ramped up at an unsustainable and unrealistic angle in the last 20 minutes to finish; one point higher !! MarketWatch already had the headline printed; "Market closes higher for third week" !!!!. You'd have to be 8 years old or asleep to think this was real. I'm $7,000 out of the money on my shorts now; and I'm curious when it'll be time to let the air out of this thing. The chart the guy published in the article we're supposed to commenting on looks significant to me; because the latest rally is at an unsustainable angle. The angle of a price channel is always of interest. About 45 degrees is sustainable; steeper than that it's bubble territory. Also his remarks about the serious money leaving the building and buying real assets as some merit. Warren Buffet bought a railroad; not the stock; the Railroad; and a utility company; electric power generating; very, very, conservative real things to own that can continue to operate and generate revenue; even if it's measured in World Military Credits; or whatever. He's right about wealthy europeans and Chinese buying Gold too; what we saw last month in that series of down waves was programmed selling; people unloading their stock positions. Not Mom and Pop; but private investment managers; and probably some banks. The stock market might trade in a narrow range until the new year; since a lot of people straighten out their books for year end, early; and a lot of people take off for the holiday season. But it won't make it through February.
The first goal in achieving financial security is to take steps that insure capital preservation. One thing has become crystal clear over the last few decades and that is the economic landscape is constantly changing this means we really are no safer today than in the past. One day you can be a hero and the next day a goat.
One of my largest reasons for concern is I feel that many of the numbers being presented to us do not make rational sense, the "numbers don't work." The article below delves into how all of us will be vulnerable if the current financial system breaks down and has to be rebooted or restarted under new or drastically different set of rules.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/11/capital-preservation-is-job-one.html
Dear Mr. Phoenix,
...not sure what planet you are on.
the S&P 500 is continuing north on Euro Zone break down fears as European money flows into US Stocks.
As the Euro Zone continues to disintegrate this phenomenon will increase.
geez.... how about some simple, easy peripheral homework before you write this crap?
Well done. You've cracked it. Phoenix has called the top for 5 years now. A complete moron.
I agree it's delusional talking about S&P450; but the European flight capital flows in bifurcated streams; some into the US Stocks; some into US Bonds, (at least they'll get their dollars back), and some into gold and Art and Real Properties as he says. The would regard the jagged up and down price charts of last month as tremblors before an earthquake. Hot capital, and as we were discussing the other day, ETF's are very skittish; the money can leave just as fast as it arrived; or faster.
The dollars strength and the rising American stock market could also be taken as a sign of an unstable global economy. The money flowing in from other countries in search of a safe home screams of a bigger problem! When a strong shift in currencies occurs someone gets hurt and this leads to bankruptcy and contagion.
A great deal of the shadow banking world falls into and overlaps into the grey world of derivatives. There is no single commonly adopted definition of derivative or derivative contract in the European Union. This plays havoc with what and when reporting rules apply. It also highlights divisions in how national regulators view reporting rules for the $693 trillion over-the-counter derivatives market.
Remember this is only part of a much larger market, it is estimated the total derivatives market includes hundreds of trillions of dollars in non-reported agreements and private contracts. Everyone paying attention knows that the size of the derivatives market is 20 times larger than the global economy. The article below explores some of its ins and outs of derivatives and why they could collapse the economic system.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/03/derivatives-house-of-cards.html
In the words of Dr. Zoidberg...'1 art, please!'
Dow 3,500 and FTSE 1750 when this is done.
DavidC
I don't know why I even bother to read articles like this one anymore. Been hearing the same shit for years and years now.
Why not discuss the reality - a slow, grinding halt of economic activity coupled with steady erosion of purchasing power and opportunities for socioeconomic advancement.
Oh wait, that's not SCARY enough.
'How did you go bankrupt? Very slowly, and then all at once." Earnest Hemingway
agree 100% - fear and doom about a bigger bust for what 5 years now - eventually the boy who cried wolf will be right - but look at what one would have missed out on the last five years. Depressing as hech. Welcome to povertyville everyone!
As The Bear I am thoroughly depressed ... since oh, about March 2009.
Fearmongrelling.
I'm bored. Crash already!!!
Relax. Be patient. Keep stacking. The interesting times will be here soon enough.
Hey Graham! Eventually you will be right! Wow, your prophetic abilities are amazing! And I'll just play the other game and say that the S&P is going to 10000...someday.
BTW, love the "work" you did with that chart...just amazing!
He ought to throw that chart on a canvas and auction it off for a couple hundred mil...
B2GOLD Corp +12% lol
My wife and I deal modern artwork. We middle it to rich Chinese. It's just a big hustle, an elaborate dance and all the snooty British gold-plated auction houses and dealers are dancing. Let the big fish grab the bait if they want it. Plenty of whales ready to lay down millions for latest and greatest. Compared to the excellence and intelligence of the ancients, most modern art is simply child's play. So be it. Does no harm. Talent always finds its way.
"...most modern art is simply child's play."
Agreed. If I can do it - and I am perfectly capable of gluing a triangle and a circle to a square - it is not art.
Because of an invalid trendline? Sounds like muppet baiting to me. QE will continue by other means, just don't expect to be told about it - you're not in the club.
Contemporary art sales up 40%.. Bwaahahaha.
Our local Art Museum is chock full of modern art. There is a huge painting near the main entrance. It is a 25 foot by 6 foot canvas painted black, and the artist masked off a band across the middle and painted it dark red.
I was moved. Truly moved.
Modern art is horseshit.
Ninety percent of anything is horse shit. Check out Jackson Pollack for some good stuff
If I can paint it or sculp it.....it ain't "art"!!!
Brilliant thought, YOUR local art museum is indicative of ALL modern art. I just went to a showing of some truly talented new artists, open your eyes to more than your backyard.
My 3 year old and I will go out and collect some of our dog's shit and smear it on a canvas and slap a $500,000 price tag on it and laugh in the corner as you dumb art fucks sip your wine and discuss what we were *feeling* when we made it.
Oh, us residents of Hicksville just haven't been exposed to the glorious misshapen blobs of downtown modern art.
My bad.
There again, I don't think the backwoods is devoid of artists. There are many examples of modern art generated by artists without formal training that are breath taking. At one showing, a long time advertising artist who doesn't call himself an artist had a first showing after 40 years in the ad business, stole the show. My Grandmother was an amazing artist and never had her work shown outside the county fair. Don't sell yourself short, just open your mind to a larger world.
Real artists today are stretching their food dollars to cover their kids with three square a day, while their household income shrinks under NWO - federal management.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DiYjwRZK_NM
Mel Brooks, "The Critic", 1963
During the Rennaisance art was a huge block of marble carved painstakingly to be a lifelike representation of the human form - today it is an empty soda can with a pen shoved through the middle and splattered with random paint colors.
What does that tell us about our "modern" age?
Never realized how huge Michelangelo's David is:
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/michelangelo-david-moved-quake-proof-site-article-1.1776838#
It might be inflationary if things were normal. But I think much of those 'gains' would be squirreled away, or used to pay down debt. Neither of which is at all inflationary.
I think inflation is off the table, for now. However, I'm sure that if deflation continues, the idiots will do something truly stupid, and we could end up hyperinflationary for a short time before the final collapse of most world currencies.
They'll tank the whole thing before they willingly give up a nickel of their 'gains'. They are counting on the little guys being more afraid to lose the little they have...too bad they didn't let those little guys keep more. Maybe they WOULD feel that way if what they HAD left WAS worth fighting for. But no one fights to keep a minimum wage job, or to preserve an economy that they aren't part of anymore.
So a significant number of folks may not really give a shit about the stock market tanking...they may even enjoy watching it.
I know I will ... but I am not looking forward to the End Game
The greedy super-rich and the feckless bankers loaning money for things like stock buybacks saved us from high inflation that under normal conditions would of flooded the market. A good crash of the stock market or corporations defaulting will make that money disappear.
It's a bubble and it will pop, no doubt...
http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/anatomy-of-a-bubble-how-the-federal-r...
Is smart money prepping for a collapse? Absolutely. Here's how market psychology works as Elliott Waves play out...
http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/introduction-to-the-elliott-wave-prin...
The market is all about credit, swaping one bad loan for another. If this ever even thinks of stoping, there will be nothing left of value anywhere because anything of value has been traded for 'value added' math. What is the real market price of an equation on a blackboard?
Value is a strange animal, it depends on the person needs, i have no need of an iPhone so no value applies. The market used to run on value, did the company make things that people wanted to buy. Now we have a combination beauty contest and freak show where value doesn't matter but P.T. Barnum hucksterism does. Just look at recent M&A, the money would of been better spent on booze and women.
if somehow investors figured it out and sold or hedged their positions, converting all those obscene fed induced gains into cash, that would be inflationary wouldn't it? (the fed wants inflation, so crash the market, just be sure you let everyone know you are doing it)