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The Strangest Number In Today's Jobs Report
By now everyone knows that the simple reason why the US employment picture is so pathetic despite the endless propaganda spin (as the Democrats just found out earlier this week in a truly historic mid-term drubbing), and why there is no wage growth, is due to the aged portion of the labor force, those 55 and over, and which would otherwise be retiring, refusing to quit their jobs and, well, retire for one simple reason: ZIRP has destroyed the product of their lifetime work, their savings, and since tens of millions of Americans in their golden years can't rely on a cash flow stream from their savings and retire, they are forced to keep working to an ever older age.
This can be seen not only in the chart of record workers aged 55 and over...
... but also in the persistent peak of the labor force participation if only for those 55 and over, which unlike the participation rate for the broader population simply refuses to decline.
None of the above is by now surprising, and has nothing to do with the strangest data point in today's jobs report, which nonetheless has to do with the age composition of the jobs report, because we find that of the nearly 700K (683,000 to be "precise") increase in October jobs according to the Household survey, a whopping 528K jobs were as a result of (seasonally-adjusted) workers aged 16-24 finding a job.
This is shown in the chart below: it is also the biggest monthly jump in young workers in the past decade, and one of the highest in history.
One wonders: just where did this near record surge in youth hiring come from in month of October?
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Christmas hiring
Short term
Until they relize no one has money to shop
Yes and honestly I was shocked the Want Ads came out so early.
"just where did this near record surge in youth hiring come from in month of October?"
It's from Italy recognizing prostituion in GDP.
Surge in part-time workers needed to clean-up discarded holloween candy wrappers along the sidewalks?
makes sense, more younger and over 55 workers doing menial jobs to displace the 25-55 cohort that traditionally got the real jobs. The giant sucking sound of middle class jobs disappearing, the "service economy" aka Feudalism 2.0
They adjusted the "unemployment" parameters to assume it is a kids JOB to go to school.
FX market moves after NFP recorded LIVE on video here. The markets are so fucked up.
Do you want fries with that fried chicken?
I'd prefer Arigula rings.....
Makes sense. I forgot that Christmas sales push started in mid-October this year. Next year the Halloween sales will start in August and Christmas sales will start in September. Once Christmas sales start in March the U.S. consumer can be officially declared dead.
Why not Christmas 365/12 ?
If you are rich enough, it is...
Taketheredpill
Next year? Where have you been? I've been seeing Christmas crap on sale in September for about six years now.
The hiring is coming from 1B bond issues being passed along with various industrial projects kicking off this month.
So, let the Saudi's bang oil down to 70 or lower, see what happens... Go ahead and raise rates, see what happens.
All talk, talk, talk.
They don't dare act on any thing or the whole thing blows sky high.
Buy Gold...
That's Nike behind the Curtain again. Doing what they do best.
To the defense of the economists
how can they know that Christmas is over on December 25th?
Liars' statistics.
So you're saying <gulp> they..... lied? Oh, no. That can't be right. I won't believe that.
christmas push early, who else is going to work for min wage for 8 weeks?
But but but they can buy a new car and a house with a job.
They don't even bother to hide the lies much at all now
If all of those seasonally-adjusted workers decide to take up snipe hunting, snipes are going to go extinct.
Where from? Clearly it represents full-time long-term employment with many respectable productive enterprises.
Did they start counting Call of Duty as a job? That would totally Fix employment numbers.
Job training for the upcoming conscription once they have pushed Russians to the corner or ISIS gets out of hand.
Job training for the upcoming conscription once they have pushed Russians to the corner or ISIS gets out of hand.
Wow. blatant bullshit. Define "job"...
Definition of job: employed for one hour during the week.
Much like what the canadian central bank governor poloz said to the youths...just work for free...i guess that still technically counts as a job...just the corporations are using them as slave labor.
Now I see why they don't teach kids history no mo'. Working for free = slavery, or at best = serfdom.
Feudalism 2.0, as mentioned above!
They started using kids being paid an allowance by their parents as employed.
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perhaps they are counting door-to-door candy solicitation as employment.
Perhaps door to door pamphlet handlers for the election would seem more like it. Now that the election is over lets see if that number collapses for November.
Door-to-door reminds me of the knock on the door yesterday. Some young hispanic man asked if we needed Christmas lights put up ... he charges $150 (cash) he said. When I told him I was atheist he paused for a millisec and then pretty quick asked, “Do you need any Christmas lights taken down.”
He also said he hangs mirrors, pictures, etc. ,… charges $60 an hour … cash.
Looking for a job is now counted as working.
And the guy on the sidewalk with a "Will work for weed" sign is now regarded as an entrepreneur.
Won't the rich cash out some shares of AAPL and buy x mas gifts, houses, boats, cars and launch new businesses and hire all sorts of folks as the market races higher?
No.
I put some furniture on consignment for a billionaire client.
She nearly wet herself with excitement when it just sold for $1000.
Another, who flys his helicopter to work everyday, makes his live in help put labels on lighbulbs,
and personally returns them to HD if they die before the stated hours for a refund.
Apart from their Toys, they are a pretty frugal bunch.They make the Scots look spendaholic.
Will be needing lots of gift rappers this holiday season!
For all the kitchen appliances under $50 that people are putting on Lay Away, they will surely be paying the extra $5 to get it gift wrapped....
Is that so they can wrap in rhythm?
The only jobs that make this number rational for teenagers is of the "blow" variety.
I'm dreaming of a Ebola Christmas
With every morgue toe-tag that I write
May your days be scary and blight
And may all your Ebolas be filled with fright
Must have been a surge in 1 on 1 and Couples Webcam shows. I expect that industry to sky rocket when people have nothing else to sell except themselves....
By the time the world economy goes through the paradigm shift and settles into the more balanced normal, people will be go through hell and do shits they have never even imagined.
I think there will be a good market for that in the banker class since the hookers and blow has become more of a liability as seen in the BofA guy in Hong Kong rubbing his ding dong then whacking the 2 hookers. Now bankers can whack off in the comfort of their own homes.
Christmas jobs. I would always start getting callbacks for Christmas jobs around Halloween.
Black Friday was Halloween this year
They counted "Boy scout popcorn sales"
That's a job...right?
Look, this is how Rubin, Summers and their puppet president operate - they see a number they don't like, they change it to something they like (then they pout about it endlessly on the media). There is certainly no real change.
In 2008, when the crisis hit, all past employment numbers were revised to the tune of hundreds of thousands, in some cases (total employed) by over a million. This is an exercise in manipulation that gets revised to something that resembles reality once every 7+ years when a crisis hits.
I call Bravo Sierra.
I'd like to see how the BLS is defining 'job' and what methodolgy they are using to arrive at these numbers. I'm sure that there is some kind of formula used to predict/estimate (scientifically, of course) the economy that is 'non-traditional.'
When you use the Household Survey and seasonal adjustments, you can write any fucking ficiton that you like.
Mendocino County, CA. Makes History and Passes Law Establishing Local Self-Governance |
It would make sense that they were short term jobs for the differenct campaigns going into election day. Signs, etc.
The older people have been eating livestock and poultry hormones for longer and the younger folk statistic was sold to Washington D.C. democrats as a statistic that would be released before the election.
Hedonics ... the older you get the better you get, so 30 is the new 20. They just reclassified those living at home with parents as 'working'
did you do any housework today? check
they legalized pot in four states, and more are on the way. pot is big business
I'm a geezer in my mid/late 60's on early SSI...and still working part time. And in all likelyhood, I'll be working till I die.
Next year we will have a "Christmas in July." to help hiring, who needs Independence Day
Easy...if you have sex with your boyfriend, and did he paid for dinner they now clasfficy you as a working posititute
nfp report nothing but mark to fantasy grimm's fairy tales. We must be that stupid or the gubermint wouldn't keep stocking the shelves with fairy tales for citizens to read. I have trouble even commenting on such blatant lies in the library of CONgress. The non fiction section is so over weighted with stacks of shit house graffiti, you'd think the walls would crumble to dust under such graphic ball faced weight?
the only areas of the economy doing well are Weed and Energy
And if stoners ever get the energy to do anything productive, the economy will be in even more trouble. Think of the surplus labor that will cause!!
Everybody in the area where I live went ape shit over the fact that Amazon was hiring for their warehouse in October. It's all done through a temp agency of course starting out at $15 bucks an hour. I wonder what the temp agency's cut is out of that.
Costco is $20/hour i read and the door-to-door hispanics charge $60/hour to hang stuff or help you with work around the yard. That's better then the Family Doctor down the street makes.
My first minimum wage job paid $3.35 an hour, circa 1982. Today that number ranges from $5.15 (Wyoming/ Georgia) to $9.32 (Washington), while most states average around $8. I'm pretty sure the $3.35 back then, bought a lot more than the $8 would buy now.
I started at $3.35 as well (1985). Gas back then was also only around $.69/gal., and a pack of Marlboros was $.75.
My how things have changed.....
We got Federal Reserved.
Indeed.
I used to roof houses for $3.50 a square (10 square feet, 3 bundles nailed on). Not the fastest roofer, I put on about 11 square a day.
$3.00 would buy you a plastic model car and a can of paint for it that today costs over $22.
My electric bill (small apartment) was $9, the rent was $84, gas was 55 cents, smokes were 35 cents a pack. The phone was about $7 less long distance charges, but it stayed on the counter at home.
$3.50 a square was righteous bucks.
use the pizza index.
you should of been able to buy like 4 slices of pizza in 1982 for your hours worth of work.
In Brooklyn a slice is 3$~3.25 right now id say 2.5slices per hour
So what used to be 4 slices an hour became 2.5 slices an hour.
Wages have gone down.
I shared a two bedroom apartment in a major city with another Roach (my borther) and we paid $65 total /month in rent. Pizza was 25 cents a slice. Jobs were extremely difficult in the early 1970's but I finally found one working in a morgue at night and on weekends for $2.35/hour but with lots of overtime since it was a very very busy morgue (yes, crazy isn't it!). Seemed people were kicking the bucket like crazy back then. Very good for me bad for them. Incredibly gruesome work but it paid the rent and put food on our table. The creepiest thing was the chief morgue guy looked like Lester in that monster TV series, The Adams Family. I hated going here working with him at midnight sometimes. I was reallyhappy when I found a daytime job with fairly normal people.
http://st-listas.20minutos.es/images/2013-06/363323/4065289_640px.jpg?13...
That picture is one of "Fester". LOL
Election Helpers, Temporary work down the block from me they hired like 30 kids to help out at voters booths + people handing out info etc and temp campeighn helpers
we should have elections more often, seems about only way a 20 sumtin can get a jerb around here
Why pretend to analyze made up numbers. Not the best use of my time.
seasonal adjustment (use as needed)
We all know that aint real employment.
What we need is a good old fashioned, conventional weaponed world war! Conscription will solve that pesky unemployment issue, and cull some world population as a bonus.
Too late. Most of the weapons are foreign made now.
The department of lies.
Endeavor to persevere...... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsL6mKxtOlQ
Young people are more connected than ever.
If you ever tried texting; it is difficult to do.
Compared to typing, texting is hard work.
BLS may finally be counting unpaid work as “work”.
In America, unpaid work hours are where the real work is done.
Wouldn't that increase in young workers be Democrat campaign "workers"?
You know, the young people they pay off to "work" the campaign - stuff ballots, drag old people to the polls, pass out "walking around money" plant signs etc.
I have never been comfortable with the logic of "seasonal adjustments". Once you have 3 years' worth of continuous data, the raw numbers are sufficient for the reader to analyze the data properly. The reader can draw his/her own conclusions when comparing YoY, MoM, WoW, etc.
Next, the application of seasonality should be consistent without variation. Whatever the "multiplier factor" is, it should be the same for every datapoint in the sequence. For instance, October's multiplier factor should be the same for every October, if the data is being studied in monthly increments.
Finally, if the government cannot stop seasonally adjusting things, the least it could do would be to report both raw and seasonally adjusted data in juxtaposition to each other, and the news services should give both numbers when reporting.
They don't even care anymore how they make up their numbers. Wasnt the majority of the hiring last month in the 54-65 age range?
it's official - if you collect welfare, you are officially employed - by barry's state
we want MOAR obama-unism!!!!!!!!!!
Scalping makes sense now, huh?
It's easy to explain. If you're in college and you're getting scholarship funds, grants, or student loan money, you're now considered employed.
all these numbers are political fiction