America Will Soon Have More Waiters And Bartenders Than Manufacturing Workers

Tyler Durden's picture

While the headline jobs print was a modest kneejerk disappointment at least until it is appropriately spun in some sort of "goldilocks" frame, where the October jobs report was a true disappointment, was in the report of average hourly earnings: rising at just 0.1% for the month and 2.0% Y/Y, it missed expectations across both metrics. As a reminder, even Janet Yellen has observed that with the unemployment rate ridiculously low and thus meaningless to shape policy, the key thing the Fed head is watching is any changes in wages to determine where benign wage inflation is headed. Well, as the chart below shows, it is headed exactly nowhere, because 6 years after the recovery, wages simply refuse to rise.


And while there are many reason to explain this phenomenon, most of which have been covered here in the past, here is the easiest explanation of why wages have, and will continue to disappoint to the downside. From the report:

  • Food services and drinking places added 42,000 jobs in October, compared  with an average gain of 26,000 jobs per month over the prior 12 months.
  • Employment in professional and business services continued to trend up over  the month (+37,000).  Over the prior 12 months, job gains averaged 56,000 per  month. In October, employment continued to trend up in temporary help services  (+15,000).

In brief: well-paying jobs lower, low-paying jobs much higher.

And to visualize it: in October the US economy added the most waiters and bartenders in over a year. In fact at 42K, one in every five jobs "created" in the US economy went to a bartender, or a waiter.


Finally, putting it all in perspective, here is the total number of waters and bartenders Vs. manufacturing workers in the US since 1990. The red (bad) line has almost caught up with the blue (good) one. So much for Obama's manufacturing renaissance promise as manufacturing workers have barely recouped any of the losses since the Great Depression started in 2008, while America has never had more waters and bartenders.

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Seasmoke's picture

Make mine a double. 

Shocker's picture

More part time, lower wage jobs.. What kind of recovery is this?

Job Situation:


Headbanger's picture

I'm buying!

It's Friday and  noon time somewhere!

TeamDepends's picture

Grab a brew.  Don't cost nuthin'.

Save_America1st's picture

it's pay day and I'll be stackin' some sweet, shiny, silvery phyzz ;-)


GetZeeGold's picture



Get your own drink......I just hit 29.5 hours.

Rubbish's picture

Bar was full last night as the Browns spanked Cincy and took the division lead. Miracles for a 40 year Cleveland Fan !


Gold Bitches.....I pick up pennies

TruthInSunshine's picture

Oxford University economic study released stating automation will eliminate 75 MILLION+ JOBS in U.S. by 2035, bitchez .

A future without work?
Machines may soon take over half of today's jobs

"Tinkerine Studios' loft-like space in central Vancouver seems innocent enough.

Part hip startup, part modern hobby shop, its minimal work stations and fresh white walls contrast with the candy-coloured plastic trinkets lining the shelves, each one produced by Tinkerine's marquee product: a line of 3D printers.

For those who haven't seen the process in action, 3D printing can be a hard concept to grasp. Taking a virtual design and making it physical at the touch of a button still seems like something out of science fiction. Up close and personal, however, it's much less mysterious. In fact, it's kind of cute.

Each sleek little machine hums a wheezy little tune as it sucks bright plastic filament off a spool, heats it up and pumps it through a nozzle - sort of like a hot-glue gun - adding layer upon layer until - voila - you have a thing! An iPhone case, a vase, a scale model of the Eiffel Tower: these are just some of the items they can produce.

"At the end of the day, we're really here to make a product or tool that allows anybody to do anything they want with it," says Eugene Suyu, Tinkerine's 25-year-old founder. "The sky's really the limit for the end user."

Right now, that's mostly design geeks and small businesses looking for a means to produce cheap and easy prototypes, but Suyu has his sights set on a much larger market.

"These units will eventually trickle into homes," he says.

He's probably right. Like the Internet in its early days, 3D printing seems niche and esoteric now, but the technology seems destined for ubiquity just as soon as the kinks get worked out and we all learn how to use it.

When that happens, a lot of people are going to be out of a job.

***Add that to steady advancements in computing technology that put nearly half of today's jobs at risk for automation, according to a recent Oxford University study, and you have a massive societal shift on your hands.***"


mjcOH1's picture

"Finally, putting it all in perspective, here is the total number of waters and bartenders Vs. manufacturing workers in the US since 1990. The red (bad) line has almost caught up with the blue (good) one."


What a a joke.   Graph the number of 'government' workers vs manufacturing workers if you want to see where we're really at.   The number of 'takers' exceeded the number of 'producers' in most states over 10 years ago.  'Government' is the largest employer in most former 'manufacturing' states. 

MisterMousePotato's picture

Why not? After all, it's been ten or 15 years now since the number of government employees exceeded manufacturing employees (true - look it up, if you want).

Nothing bad has come of that, now, has it?

mjcOH1's picture

"Nothing bad has come of that, now, has it?"

Aside from a $17 trillion national debt, $600B to 1trillion budget deficit, and a generation of EBT addicts, it's all good.

Took Red Pill's picture

How can all these people afford to go out to eat so much?

Wait What's picture

someone's gotta pour my drinks when i'm too drunk to do it myself.

"bartender, you've earned your $15 an hour tonight. here's a $5 tip, that should cover your rent on that 1 bedroom in the ghetto."

Stuck on Zero's picture

That's the key.  Bar tenders are actually manufacturing workers.  They assemble finished drinks.

Eireann go Brach's picture

Obamanomics, who needs to build shit when you can hire people to serve fried chicken all day!

Perimetr's picture

You want to supersize that?

Doubleguns's picture

Returning to very basic needs in this down turn. Need food and escape from the reality. 

Headbanger's picture

What's this "reality" thing you mention??

Oh wait..   Is it that nasty shit when I'm sober??

NotApplicable's picture

Reality is merely one's most plausible belief system.

Kegerator (or as I call it, "beer fountain"), FTW!

Headbanger's picture

And I'm a drunk... NOT an alcoholic..


Alcoholics go to meetings...

Osmium's picture

Reality is for people who can't handle drugs or alcohol.

Billy Sol Estes's picture

The escape lasts as long as the glass is full.

ejmoosa's picture

THe BLS number has become a useless metric.  How can you add 2.8 million jobs in a year(unadjusted) and see no drop in welfare recipients at all?

I'll believe the number where people are receiving checks from the government over surveys any day.


ATM's picture

If the working age population increased 2.8M (not unlikely) then the number on the dole would not change.  

Spastica Rex's picture

I find it really funny that simple math is downvoted.

unionbroker's picture

and i guess nobody retired on the other end

duo's picture

Frankly I'm surprised that there still are more manufacturing workers than waiters/bartenders.  Didn't the BLS try to re-classify burger flipping as manufacturing a few years ago?

101 years and counting's picture

the "creation" of jobs over the last 2 years has been done by simply reallocation of worker hours.  because of obamacare, companies reduce employee hours to under 30 per week.  do this enough, and you need to "create a job" to cover those hours that have been taken from other employees.  

p00k1e's picture

Import cheap, but clever plastic crap from China and sling it on the flea market circuit.

The last show I went to was chock full of Chinese lasers, night vision and the like. 

toady's picture

I saw an interesting scam yesterday. Apparently they're getting old mattresses, tearing off the old fabric (keeping the labels) then sewing new fabric (and the old labels) on the old frame.

Apparently it's becoming a cottage industry here in Phoenix. A local investigative reporter had a bunch of footage of Mexicans driving around picking up old mattresses from the side of the road, the dump, etc, then doing the refurbishing at a storage locker, and finally selling them as new at the park-n-swap.

All I'd need is some mattress fabric, an industrial-size sewing machine, and rent money for a storage space & a space at park-n-swap!

Cathartes Aura's picture

the selling of "used" mattresses pretending to be "new" has been going on for well over a decade - fly-by night storefronts with mattresses stacked, short lease gone after a few months.  apparently "legal" - though what you're describing is more of a scam apparently.

RaceToTheBottom's picture

Pretty cool idea.

Can they build mine to have a safe in it?

TruthInSunshine's picture

And the bed bugs and other parasites come free!

Leraconteur's picture

Yep. The bed mites will number in the millions.

1000yrdstare's picture

The sale and consumption of Alchohol goes up in a depression....duh.

p00k1e's picture

1000yrdstare has the answer.

Download the 'Moonshiners’ series from Amazon and go into business. 

Sudden Debt's picture


Never One Roach's picture



I’m a ‘Barista’ not a waiter.


And I am NOT a cook…I’m a ‘Chef!’

Sudden Debt's picture

Don't drewl or we'll have to call for a "Floormanager" to clean it up!

foodstampbarry's picture

Shit, you're a catch! Are you female and single? You're my ticket to the good life baby!

Chupacabra-322's picture

We'll, look on the bright side. At least you can get fucked up / lambasted knowing how manipulated the Ponzi is. That is, if you can afford to get fucked up.

richiebaby's picture

Bartender is my dream job

Sudden Debt's picture

10 more year in the "Cleaning Lettuce" department and you're up for promotion buddy!

RaceToTheBottom's picture

All the way to cutting celery.