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America Will Soon Have More Waiters And Bartenders Than Manufacturing Workers

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While the headline jobs print was a modest kneejerk disappointment at least until it is appropriately spun in some sort of "goldilocks" frame, where the October jobs report was a true disappointment, was in the report of average hourly earnings: rising at just 0.1% for the month and 2.0% Y/Y, it missed expectations across both metrics. As a reminder, even Janet Yellen has observed that with the unemployment rate ridiculously low and thus meaningless to shape policy, the key thing the Fed head is watching is any changes in wages to determine where benign wage inflation is headed. Well, as the chart below shows, it is headed exactly nowhere, because 6 years after the recovery, wages simply refuse to rise.

 

And while there are many reason to explain this phenomenon, most of which have been covered here in the past, here is the easiest explanation of why wages have, and will continue to disappoint to the downside. From the report:

  • Food services and drinking places added 42,000 jobs in October, compared  with an average gain of 26,000 jobs per month over the prior 12 months.
  • Employment in professional and business services continued to trend up over  the month (+37,000).  Over the prior 12 months, job gains averaged 56,000 per  month. In October, employment continued to trend up in temporary help services  (+15,000).

In brief: well-paying jobs lower, low-paying jobs much higher.

And to visualize it: in October the US economy added the most waiters and bartenders in over a year. In fact at 42K, one in every five jobs "created" in the US economy went to a bartender, or a waiter.

 

Finally, putting it all in perspective, here is the total number of waters and bartenders Vs. manufacturing workers in the US since 1990. The red (bad) line has almost caught up with the blue (good) one. So much for Obama's manufacturing renaissance promise as manufacturing workers have barely recouped any of the losses since the Great Depression started in 2008, while America has never had more waters and bartenders.

 

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Fri, 11/07/2014 - 12:59 | 5424043 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

a nice way of saying that the future is "grande or vente?" or "fries with your bucket of chicken?"

Fri, 11/07/2014 - 12:58 | 5424044 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

a nice way of saying that the future is "grande or vente?" or "fries with your bucket of chicken?"

Fri, 11/07/2014 - 13:45 | 5424140 Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

Good thing the crash in the oil price will make restaurants "busy" this holiday season!...

I sure haven't seen a pint of ale drop below $5.50 to $6.00 yet at just about every pub or restaurant in the Washington D.C. area. But of course "these things" take time. ... And if the price of food and beverage don't decline due to falling fuel costs they can always blame it on increased "demand" for ingredients instead of a currency tied to limitless debt with employees who no longer possess meaningful jobs who can't pay for it with anything other than credit!

To all those cooks waiters and waitresses out there?...  Good luck!!!

Fri, 11/07/2014 - 13:33 | 5424150 dondonsurvelo
dondonsurvelo's picture

At 58 I went back to work as a waiter after having a successful career.  I work four evenings per week, have medical insurance and walk with at least 2 bills every night.  During the day, I surf, mountain bike and take midday naps.  Find another job like that.

Fri, 11/07/2014 - 13:37 | 5424170 Tinky
Tinky's picture

I don't know why everyone is bitching – I happen to like conversing with cab drivers and waiters who have PHDs.

Fri, 11/07/2014 - 13:39 | 5424185 Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

"I don't know why everyone is bitching – I happen to like conversing with cab drivers and waiters who have PHDs."

.

+100

Fri, 11/07/2014 - 14:07 | 5424308 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

The return of the shoeshiners.

Fri, 11/07/2014 - 14:42 | 5424464 Mike Masr
Mike Masr's picture

Wonder what the McDonald's position "Director of Pickles and Condiments" pays?

Fri, 11/07/2014 - 14:56 | 5424531 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

 

Wait a minute.  I'm confused.

 

Is a hamburger flipper a manufacturing worker or a waiter and bartender?

Fri, 11/07/2014 - 14:59 | 5424549 Super Hans
Super Hans's picture

Went to a Bartender Academy in like '93, and graduated with a bartender type id card.  We had to make like 8 mixed drink coctails in like 2 minutes. Like, maybe I should try and find that card and bring it with me to the nearest bar in an effort to get a job.  

I only worked as a bartender that summer, then went back to university.

I guess that I should have stuck with the bartending.

Getting ready to burn my University Diploma on Youtub!  Maybe,,, 

Fri, 11/07/2014 - 15:12 | 5424616 Vin
Vin's picture

But they help bring down the unemployment numbers, so they must be good!

Fri, 11/07/2014 - 16:53 | 5425030 Wilcox1
Wilcox1's picture

I guess you saw where MW was jawboning the tips up today. That should help bring the income into parity with manu jobs

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