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Chaos In The Middle East, Paralysis In The West
Excerpted from Paul Singer's letter to investors,
CHAOS IN THE MIDDLE EAST, PARALYSIS IN THE WEST
Weakness, indecision and unreliability are terrible characteristics in a dangerous world. Strength does not mean bombing everyone. It means having capabilities, choosing one’s spots, and doing what you say you will do.
It is not an exaggeration to say that the Middle East is in a state of head-spinning chaos.
The U.S. has been all over the place in terms of its approach to the region and the region’s large stores of energy. The Middle East has been run in the post-World War I period variously by despots, family dynasties or theocracies. There has been only one consistent democracy in the region since World War II, and that is Israel. At present, there are at least five live conflicts in the region:
(1) secularists and reformers versus Islamist hardliners;
(2) Shia Muslims versus Sunni Muslims;
(3) the Syrian civil war;
(4) the Kurds versus Turkey and Iraq for self-control; and
(5) Israel versus its enemies.
Europe has a quite limited ability (and even less desire) to assert itself in the region, having eviscerated its military forces through years of budget cuts. America is currently in the position of a reluctant hegemon, and its strategy to deal with the immediate threat of ISIS (which is ironic given that ISIS is fighting Assad of Syria, meaning that America is effectively using military force to protect Assad and also sort of partnering with Iran, an ally of Assad’s) is very likely to be doomed to failure. We (along with most experts) strongly believe that air strikes alone (the strategy du jour) will not defeat or even significantly degrade the militant group. Thus, America needs to become realistic and generate an intelligent approach or else face being perceived as having been defeated, with all of the collateral consequences that this perception entails.
You knew most or all of these facts, but there are three elements that are worth exploring further.
First is that it has taken 100 or so years to begin unravelling the artificial “countries” that were created out of the ashes of the Ottoman Empire. That process, however, is now well under way in a chaotic swirl of tribes, religions, power struggles, ideologies and opportunistic gangs. None of the new Middle Eastern struggles has resulted it is safe to say a stable, peaceful democracy, and none have a realistic prospect of doing so in the foreseeable future.
A second element concerns questions about the role of the U.S., which is leading the interventions in various regional conflicts. It is (or seems) easy for leaders at present to say that the U.S. must deal with ISIS on the theory that it is an immediate threat to the American homeland and because it is well-organized, highly-motivated and completely ruthless. But it is absurd to create national security policy, and a significant and uncertain foreign military adventure, on the basis of a series of “snuff videos,” no matter how despicable. Moreover, we hope that no American leader hangs any future intervention in the region on the hook of trying to create societies that look like America. For starters, it may actually be impossible, and in any event, it is certainly embarrassing when those efforts fail. There are plenty of reasons other than “nation-building” for America to assert itself militarily in the region.
The third element is the overall game plan (or lack thereof). We have heard a number of experts opine on the appropriate way to fight ISIS and argue over the right approach to keep Iran from becoming a nuclear power and other current aspects of the immediately viewable landscape. But we have not heard any expert or policymaker put forth a convincing explanation of what the overall strategy of the U.S. (forget the U.N. and Europe) should be, much less of what victory would look like, how long we can expect it will take to achieve, or what kinds of setbacks and challenges we will meet along the way.
Without an appreciation of those elements, we cannot understand how the U.S. government could expect its citizens to remain “onside” for what will obviously be a confusing and difficult decades-long period of sequentially rooting out and fighting those groups and leaders in the Middle East (and elsewhere) who, under the banner of Islamism, pose a serious threat to Western civilization. The West is not engaged in a “war on terror,” whatever that phrase may mean. The march of technology and the passion and brutality of Islamic radicalism have empowered small groups of highly motivated and trained fighters to do immense damage to advanced societies. It is impossible to eradicate the danger “root and branch,” and it is certainly not solely or even principally a lack of economic opportunity that produces this danger. Sometimes ideology and religion transcend what most people think of as rationality. History has demonstrated time and again that people who just want to be left alone in peace can be overrun by others who have nationalistic, theological or other passions and are willing to rampage across borders to impose their will and ideology on others, or just to destroy and murder.
If Western civilization continues being merely reactive and/or executes its sequential anti-jihad strategy stupidly (as has frequently been the case), it is going to be tough sledding for a very long time, punctuated by goodness-knows-what if the jihadis are able to mount serious and well-planned attacks.
There is no way for financial markets to handicap or take into account these potential outcomes. The actions of the West since 9/11 and the Iraq war have certainly bolstered the overall perception of governmental incompetence, but it has been people in the Middle East (especially the Syrians, Kurds and Christians) who have borne the brunt of this incompetence. If and when the struggle comes to Europe or America, perhaps Western leaders will more forcefully be held accountable for their failures. Further, if major disruptions of global energy markets cause a massive upward re-pricing of oil and gas, a greater sense of Western urgency could be triggered. What the West needs is a realistic, flexible and rapid ability and willingness to deploy an array of forces, together with a measured use of stated commitments in order to make sure that the U.S. and Europe do what they say they are going to do without becoming bogged down in massive, lengthy, expensive, unsuccessful and bloody personnel deployments. An appropriate and thoughtful amount of resolve must be paired with a careful messaging of goals and expectations to make sure that their populations are not surprised and disappointed. The West might be war-weary, but the jihadis and other combatants in the Middle East are just getting started.
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6) Just Greater Israel, utilizing their CIA dogs, turning everyone against everyone for their ultimate benefit:
"Divide and Conquer."
An American, not US subject.
The one thing Paul Singer doesn't think is FAKE, the 40yr war on terror.
History has demonstrated time and again that people who just want to be left alone in peace can be overrun by others who have nationalistic, theological or other passions and are willing to rampage across borders to impose their will and ideology on others, or just to destroy and murder.
Yeah.. israel totally not guilty of this.
Seriously... I thought I was reading an article written by John McCain
Need a real leader that will bring it ALL home.
Reset
Singer is a Ziocon. Why ZH posts such completely lopsided bullshit/propaganda is perplexing.
Question everything, trust no one.
Agreed, I stopped reading at the line 'America is...a reluctant hegemon...'. Reluctant?!
DavidC
Also sounds like a perfect description of America's nationalistic "Christians" imposing their murderous ways through drone strikes on those evil brown skinned people somewhere over there.
The populations that spawn and enable muslim radicals are already in Europe and America in statistically relevant numbers....TPTB could monitor and intervene proactively and reactively (as is the case now) or use a WWII strategy and ethnic cleansing by relocating said populations to "camps"....this of course has a greater efficacy insofar as controlling the radicals effects on open society,but is problematic in light of civil rights etc...
There are lots of bad guys involved on all sides. Muslims jihadis and radicals do exist. They are aided and funded by the CIA and Saudis. We don't know their true motives for causing the wars and destabilization. None of it makes sense in the mind of a sane person, but they are not sane people.
For decades, Beirut was called the "Paris of the East." Now the whole Middle East is starting to look like Lebanon.
Qui bono? Who Benefits? Lots of dogs in this fight, but failed states are a disaster for everyone.
"but failed states are a disaster for everyone."
Not for the one nation that benefits.
Hint: That nation just attacked an enclave of civilians, like the Germans did to the Warsaw Ghetto in 1943.
An American, not US subject.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warsaw_Ghetto_Uprising
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Israel%E2%80%93Gaza_conflict
You must read your news through a pair of Coke bottles
Who helped restore funding to the Egyptian military in place since the 1973 Camp David accords after Obozo via executive order shut the tap just as Al-Sisi was overthrowing the Brotherhood?
A second element concerns questions about the role of the U.S., which is leading the interventions in various regional conflicts
Classic misdirection from Singer:
Every war in the Middle-East has been a war for Israel:
Everybody knows that:
1. The only country that fears Iraq’s WMD’s is Israel;
2. American-Jewish neo-conservatives on the Defense Policy Board (Richard Perle, Paul Wolfowitz) planned this war in 1998 and made it Bush Administration policy;
3. The purpose of the war is to change the balance of power in the Middle East so Israel can settle the Palestinian issue on its own terms; and
4. Congress trembles in fear before the Israeli Lobby, “AIPAC.”
http://nowarforisrael.com/jewish-writers-confirm-that-the-iraq-war-was-a...
US Sponsored Genocide Against Iraq 1990-2012. Killed 3.3 Million, Including 750,000 Childrenhttp://www.globalresearch.ca/us-sponsored-genocide-against-iraq-1990-201...
Kill millions of people in an illegal war based on lies and be prepared for bllowback.
Last but not the least, many of these jihadi groups were founded and funded by the US:
ISIS: The jihadist movement stamped “Made in America”The fact remains, however, that the US, the major European powers, and their regional allies all previously lent financial, military and political support to ISIS and similar groups, which have “Made in the USA” stamped all over them. They have, until now, played a significant part in Washington’s efforts to overthrow the regime of President Bashar al-Assad in Syria, as part of a broader effort to gain control of the region’s vast energy resources and transit routes.
http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2014/07/30/isis-j30.html
Zionism uber alles!
An American, not US subject.
The Nazis, and their crimes, rose up from a decimated economy and society. What are the Israeli's excuse?!
excuse for what ?
Israel has the right to defend itself. If Mexico were raining down rockets and missles on the US, can you imagine what the US response would be? Not nearly as restrained as the Israeli response has been.
As for Israel creating a Warsaw ghetto in Gaza, that is typical ignorant propaganda. Why is Egypt blowing up Palestinian homes along it's border with Gaza to create a buffer zone? It is because they fear Hezbollah and other radical Palestinian elements as much as the Israelis. The Arab nations created the Palestinian ghettos by refusing to take in these people, while also telling them that the Zionists would murder them if they remained in Israel. Those Palestinians that remained in Israel peacefully have done just fine. Arab revisionist history is only believed by the ignorant and the gullible.
bottle rockets is the only hope they have left, a neighbor has placed them in a prison and is murdering them
this article is gone! (vanished) "veterans today- america at the end of its tethers"
great so isreal took over the westen world BUT CAN'T TRAVEL ANYWHERE
Dear Vlad nuke brussels and isreal and save the woorld
U.S. STATE DEPARTMENT MEMO, AUGUST 1945: The oil resources [of the Middle East] constitute a stupendous source of strategic power, and one of the greatest material prizes in world history.
http://www.mediaed.org/assets/products/124/transcript_124.pdf
Reluctant Hegamon? I call Bullshit.
War weary, that's hilarious. How could big MIC get weary of its only product, death.
>>>America is currently in the position of a reluctant hegemon
This statement tells you all you need to know re the author's 1) awareness or 2) honesty.
Poor, poor America. Always forced to expend its own blood and treasure when ignorant foreigners once again prove incapable of ordering their own societies.
Before this is over - insofar as anything in the middle east is ever over - we'll be looking at several million dead, at the very least.
The Crusades have been going on for a very long time.
ebworthen - you are so right. And the Crusaders have been creating incrementally greater numbers of enemies in every generation for a very long time. It has taken @ 700-900 years, depending on who's counting, for the pot to come to a boil, but the time has come. Because the sheer volume of hatred has come together with the capability to direct that hatred effectively, the time has come for the Crusader nations to pay the price for their endless arrogance, ignorance, greed and malice.
Anyone who thinks that more than one group of hate-filled fanatics (created, as noted, by the Crusader nations) in these vast lands isn't going to be able to obtain and use weapons of mass destruction very soon hasn't been following the proliferation story very closely. Whether its nukes, chemicals or biologicals - or some combination of all three - those who have sown the wind are about to reap the whirlwind. As surely as night follows day.
Unfortunately it will be the people of the Crusader nations, and not the rich and powerful of those nations, who will pay the greatest price. But then the People have always been the ones to pay the price for the most egregious sins of the deeply flawed psychotics at the top.
Yep, just doing Dan Carlin's Harcore History "Wrath of the Khan's" I/II/III/IV (http://www.dancarlin.com/hardcore-history-series/ ). Not just the Crusaders, but the Mongols & Chinese to the east as as well at the same time. Fantastic podcasts on various histories of warfare.
First: Israel is not a democracy. It is a theocracy with some secular subsidiaries.
Second: This article is a distasteful lament at the loss of empire. It has a saccharine nostalgia for the "good old days" of US international dominance.
First: Israel is not a democracy. It is a theocracy with some secular subsidiaries.
Second: This article is a distasteful lament at the loss of empire. It has a saccharine nostalgia for the "good old days" of US international dominance.
"...distasteful lament at the loss of empire..."
Well put.
"What the West needs is a realistic, flexible and rapid ability and willingness to deploy an array of forces..."
No, what "the West" needs is to go home.
I think we have an answer to most every question Mr Singer brings up. electanewcongress.com; and electfawell.com; scienceofliberty.com
For the low-down on the tribe see: http://www.theoccidentalobserver.net/
There is a Game Plan
See
https://www.academia.edu/9160541/Laundry_Economics_
US vs Japan is the game .
BRICS and EU are simply opportunistic bystanders .
Japan is presented in Western media as a has-been .
In actual fact , they own as much if not more of Global assets than the US . And large part of China (ever wonder where the Chinese start-up capital came from ?)
This is like the US and British Empire in 1939 .
FDR saw the British as the main competitor , and took them to the cleaners .
Similar here . But where is the FDR of our times ?
Crushing debt breeds weakness. Easy to understand, but politically nearly impossible to reverse.
People get along just fine most of the time
Groups of people, not so much
Large groups of people led by psychopaths, take a guess
Statism and War go hand in hand, you may have War without States, may. but never States without War
Without an appreciation of those elements, we cannot understand how the U.S. government could expect its citizens to remain “onside” for what will obviously be a confusing and difficult decades-long period of sequentially rooting out and fighting those groups and leaders in the Middle East (and elsewhere) who, under the banner of Islamism, pose a serious threat to Western civilization
What is the serious threat to Western Civilization? Was it 9/11 or the crash of 2008, a serious threat to Western Civilization (WC). It is almost as if the WC has a death wish and assumes we can make a peaceful world while we grab the resources and kill the general population of the middle East, Islamists. We have to make them Christians even though they outnumber us. Sorry, they are family not dollar oriented and will have many children to empower them, where ever they are. That is what makes US people so mad, thay are losing the numbers war (votes) and can't find a way to win it and be Rich at the same time. Finally, there has to be a uniting force to protect/empower average people, which often is religion, or political party like the Muslim Brotherhood which has the family as the source of it's power and longevity. They don't rely on guns and bombs, to change society. Anarchists and the elite, of the US population, are independent and rely on self interest/protection from everyone except those they know personally, which means most of us don't mean squat.
When you're on the front line, I'll be right behind you.
(That's me safe).
I just watched a 100,000 of them get killed in the new Dracula movie. It was pretty good.
There is no such thing as an 'artificial state'.
All states are artificial states resulting from wars.
that concept has little to do with whether war was instrumental or not, but rather whether the people living in it were the main driving force in the formation, or whether external forces ( third party states ) played a major role in the decision.
You do not see the difference between many European states and almost all African states ? Between Belgium and The Netherlands ?
Some states are definitely more artificial than others and, as a result, often less stable.
" America is currently in the position of a reluctant hegemon."
This statement alone signals where this guy is coming from. He is another one of these clowns who see Israel as the only deomocracy, thus our great allied nation. He see ISIS as a threat, and forgets the USA created, funded, armed and trained people who became ISIS. Whether in Iraq, or Syria WE allied ourselves with all the people who became ISIS. Our NATO friend Turkey is ISIS main supporter, base camps trained ISIS inside Turket. Jordan held the biggest US special forces training camp for Jihadists in the world. We claimed we trained tem only to fight Assad, but being much more clever that America, ISIS just took the money, arms and training the USA gave them, forgot about Assad and conquered half of Iraq.
Nobody in Washington is "Relectant" they are in evey nation on earth sowing revolution, discord, oligarchy, police states, spies and fuck knows what else. Singer must be a zionest, because he sounded like he was writing for an Israeli news paper.
why does a guy named Jack use a picture of a beautiful young woman as an avatar ?
That is creating some cognitive dissonance here. Is that what you aim for ?
The photo is in remembrance of his late sister Jill, who was trangically killed while rolling down a hill, you insensitive lout.
Just dont bring this garbage to sydney.i dont care about their satanic religion or their shit culture.but what i do care is that garbage causes to much trouble in sydney.sydney welcomed those scums in the 80s because of the lebanese civil war.while they abused the social security system and shitted out lots of scum.and now the scum causes trouble here.majority of cocaine dealers,bikies,shoot outs,and lots of other crime are caused by these ass holes.even though they are born here they consider themselves to be lebanese and anyone who is a non muslim and stands up to them is an enemy(which is myself).
i want my peacefull and free sydney the way i knew it back in the 80s.
There is one rule that sums it all up: where there are muslims, there are problems.