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US Economy Shudders: East Coast Set To Freeze As Polar Vortex 2 Arrives
Remember when last December, a bout of cold weather crushed the US economy for the next 3 months, and subtracted about $100 billion from trendline growth, and when one after another economist (who were then predicting the yield on the 10 Year would "greatly rotate" to 4% by right about now, and who expected the US economy to have reached escape velocity in the second half only to see a 2014 GDP trendline as follows Q2: 4.6%, Q3: 3.5% (soon to be reviser lower), and Q4 now estimated just about 2.0%) blamed the then -3.0% GDP print on snow in the winter? Well here comes round two, because as CBS reports, "prepare for an invasion from the north. A blast of polar air is about to send temperatures plunging in the heart of America."
The polar vortex is back, and this time it means even less business: A mass of whirling cold air will dip southward this weekend, sending the mercury plunging. As the cold air moves south and east, it has the potential to affect as many as 243 million people with wind chills in the single digits in some places and snow.
Of course, the implication is that Q4 GDP is about to have its lights out moment. Either that, or if Q4 GDP mysteriously does not collapse, then scapegoating the weather for what was a fundamental flaw with the economy (and subsequent definitional revisions to GDP were the primary source of "economic growth" in 2014), will be just that.
According to CBS, the cause of the latest and greatest bout of abnormally cold winter weather is not "global warming" but a Supertyphoon named Nuri, currently located above the North Pacific.
Suomi NPP VIIRS Infrared image of the eye of Super Typhoon Nuri in the West Pacific Ocean on November 2, 2014
However, as CBS explains, "it would be wrong to think that it will affect only Alaska's far-flung Aleutian Islands or those famous fishermen who work in the North Pacific."
Images from the European Space Station show that Nuri is a growing meteorological bomb blanketing the Bering Sea. The 50-foot waves and 100 mile-an-hour winds will make conditions similar to those we had two years ago, and could make Nuri the biggest storm of the year.
"The remnants of Super Typhoon Nuri will create a big buckle in the jet stream," WBBM's meteorologist Megan Glaros in Chicago explains. "And in several days time, it's going to mean a big dip in the jet which will connect us with a big mass of Arctic air -- taking temperatures east of the Rockies down to 10 to 30 degrees below average."
So how does a typhoon over the North Pacific lead to what may be a several percentage points drop in US GDP? The following sequence of events from EarthSky explains:
On November 2, forecasters thought Super Typhoon Nuri might strengthen further into a 195 mph storm with gusts near 235 mph. Fortunately, it peaked at 180 and started to gradually weaken on Monday. Nuri becomes the sixth Super Typhoon of the Western Pacific season, largely due to the unusually warm waters and favorable atmospheric conditions across the Western Pacific basin.
The storm will gradually weaken over the next couple of days into a tropical storm. It will stay east of Japan and move out into the Northern Pacific Ocean.
GFS model showing Typhoon Nuri on November 6, 2014. Image Credit: Weatherbell
As it gains latitude, the storm will transition from a warm-core low to a cold-core low, also known as an extratropical cyclone.The Northern Pacific jet stream will enhance the storm’s intensity. It will begin to “bomb out”, meaning the barometric pressure will drop drastically. Bombogenesis is a meteorological term used to define mid-latitude cyclones that drops at least 24 millibars within 24 hours.
Typhoon Nuri becomes extratropical as it gains energy from the Northern Pacific jet stream. Image Credit: GFS via Weatherbell
It’ll become a super strong storm with a pressure around 915 to 922 millibars. Imagine a “Superstorm Sandy” over the North Pacific instead of the east coast of the United States. The storm will affect the Bering Strait, and extreme winds and surf is expected.
A mega storm forms near the Bering Strait Friday evening into Saturday morning via GFS model. Image Credit: Weatherbell
The storm will affect parts of the Alaska coast by Friday into Saturday. Some areas will likely experience hurricane force winds, high seas of 30 feet or greater, and minor coastal flooding/erosion in parts of southwest Alaska coastal areas. Some of our weather models are even projecting waves as high as 50 feet!
Further color comes from Andrew Freedman of Mashable:
To put that into perspective, consider if the storm’s minimum central pressure bottoms out below 925 millibars — as is currently forecast by most computer models — it would set a record for the lowest pressure recorded in the Bering Sea. The current record holder is 925 millibars, set in October 1977 in Dutch Harbor, Alaska
Back to EearthSky:
The storm will influence the jet stream and atmospheric patterns across the Northern Hemisphere. It will likely trigger a ridge of high pressure across the Eastern Pacific and into Western North America. Meanwhile, it’ll likely contribute to a large trough that will dig down into parts of Central/Eastern Canada and the United States. As the jet stream digs south, it will likely bring the year’s first round of arctic air into the regions. Some of the weather models are indicating the potential for single digits in the Northern Plains by late next week (November 13-15). It is still uncertain if it will produce a big storm for the eastern United States. However, both the GFS and ECMWF models indicate a significant surge of cold air into the area.
The Climate Prediction Center is in agreement with a significantly colder weather pattern setting up for next week. They are forecasting temperatures well below average for Central and Eastern United States with above average temperatures likely along the west coast of Canada and the United States.
To summarize: Nuri will likely cause hurricane-like conditions along the Bering Strait as it becomes extratropical (no longer a tropical cyclone). It will help amplify the jet stream and likely produce a surge of very cold air that will reach parts of central/eastern Canada and the United States by November 12-15, 2014. There remains uncertainty regarding how cold the pattern will be, but as soon as models get within three to five days of the forecast, we will truly get a better idea of the overall setup and if a storm will develop.
Now, the only question is how the resultant tumble in Q4 GDP will be used by the Fed and econo-pundit talking heads to justify a further delay in rate hikes, which consensus expects to take place in Q2 2015 at the latest as a result of recent seasonally massaged "strong data", or better yet, force the Fed to resume liquidity injections once it is revealed that the ECB's intervention is limited to verbal jawboning, while Japan's runaway import cost inflation and plunging real wages lead to a revulsion against Abenomics and Abe in 2015, and a premature end to Japan's epic hyper-reflation experiment and the best laid plans of Goldman Sachs to boost "risk assets" and Goldman year end bonuses.
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As Dear old Dad liked to say,
it will frost the balls on a brass monkey.
Does this mean ... another warm and mild winter in central Europe? Gosh, did i buy that heating oil for nothing?
$100 billion impact?....phuuuf.
BoA fines pay for this one
Gonna be a depression this time.
That or the Republicans winning.
Time fo an exetif order bout dis
Good excuse for a sucko Christmas. I coulda todja that even with a heat wave.
I hope all you motherfuckers freeze to death..
I'm so glad the eco-nazis cured the planet of global warming. I mean, who needs warmness and CO2? They're both so over-rated.
Job well done to all those sciency folks and their special interest groups. It's so wierd though that they were able to do it using fake data. They must have tricked the Sun or something.
Al Gore really deserves most of the credit.
Do solar panels freeze? ;-)
dont ask australians about global warming , unprecedented wild fires .... forrests that been hugged by greenies gone in a smoke ....
We can handle it, Bitchez. The colder the better, most folks body temps up north are almost a full degree below 98.6... The exposure to the cold weather evolves you.
Maybe this is perfect timing for Vlad to test the power grid hacking system on U.S.
Yes so far. It's november and I'm still having to mow the grass.
On the bright side, might also freeze the Ferguson knee grow rioters off the street.
No illustration?
I couldn’t figure out what a “knee grow rioter” was . . .
I hope it doesn't get too cold or the lawyers will have to walk around with their hands in their own pockets.
The correct term is to "freeze the balls off a brass monkey".
A monkey was a small movable naval cannon. Usually made of gunmetal (brass). The cannon balls were iron though and when cold, the balls wouldn't fit in the canon. The operator would have to report to his superior that the balls were frozen off the brass monkey.
Learning something every day at the Hedge;)
Hey Tyler! Some of us are obliged to read these articles aloud for others to hear. Are you trying to make me asphyxiate? This has to win the award for best run-on sentence YTD. Deep breath:
<Gasp> Seriously, thanks for the very good briefing. It's a shame that the west coast is somewhat insulated, as it means once again that local global warmists will continue to pursue their cherished delusion, largely unimpeded by broader meteorological and climatological reality.
Damn. I was going to remove "naval". I found a reference to "Brasse Munkeys" and "Iron Munkeys" in Edinburgh castle around 1650. Obviously not only naval.
here i thought Brass Monkey was just a drink. always learn something in ZH. one of the better passtimes i've developed this year.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=74WJkyUtBYs
Actually this seems like a better definition:
Every sailing ship had to have cannon for protection. Cannon of the times required round iron cannonballs. The master wanted to store the cannonballs such that they could be of instant use when needed, yet not roll around the gun deck. The solution was to stack them up in a square-based pyramid next to the cannon. The top level of the stack had one ball, the next level down had four, the next had nine, the next had sixteen, and so on. Four levels would provide a stack of 30 cannonballs. The only real problem was how to keep the bottom level from sliding out from under the weight of the higher levels. To do this, they devised a small brass plate ("brass monkey") with one rounded indentation for each cannonball in the bottom layer. Brass was used because the cannonballs wouldn't rust to the "brass monkey", but would rust to an iron one.
When temperature falls, brass contracts in size faster than iron. As it got cold on the gun decks, the indentations in the brass monkey would get smaller than the iron cannonballs they were holding. If the temperature got cold enough, the bottom layer would pop out of the indentations spilling the entire pyramid over the deck. Thus it was, quite literally, cold enough to freeze the balls off a brass monkey.
Cold enough to freeze the balls off a brass monkey.
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=brass%20monkey&defid=1028715
Sounds like a good explanation, but urban dictionary is definitely not a good resource.
It is the right one. I was going to log on and post the same correction, but it isn't necessary now.
Regards,
Cooter
Scroll down and read the rest of the posts on the link.
It's a Royal Navy expression from a couple of hundred years ago.
The brass monkey was actually the metal square frame that the pyramid of 30 canon balls was on next to each canon. In extreme cold the brass monkey would contract faster than the canon balls and as a result the pyramind would collapse.
Thus freezing the balls off a brass monkey.
Nope.
I thought so as well originally but after looking it up, there's a couple of problems.
1. The physics don't stand up. There would have to be hundreds of degrees of temperature change to make brass shrink enough to spill the cannon balls. The tolerances just aren't remotely close enough.
2. There's no record anywhere of these being called monkeys and the Royal Navy used wooden "shot garlands" to hold cannon balls.
The cannons themselves otoh definitely were called monkeys and came in gunmetal (brass) and iron.
But if you heat iron it expands? Presumably, they heated the cannon. Then the gunpowder would explode.
I wonder how cold it has to get to freeze the balls off a flesh monkey...bet we get to see that on the east coast soon!
colder than a witchez tit in a brass bra!
I don't believe it was the cannon but rather a brass tray to hold the cannom balls. The theory was that the brass monkey would contract in very cold weather, allowing the iron balls to roll off. This theory has been disproven however.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brass_monkey_%28colloquialism%29
Will it be colder than a witches titty in a brass bra?
It's: Witch's tit in a brass brazier.
At least that is what we said when I was a kid...wait a minute
Colder than a well diggers ass.
//maybe he is digging with a brass shovel in this case?
Colder than a banker's heart.
(My momma, back in the day.)
Colder than a nun's c**t. (Heard that back in the 60s.)
...than a witch's tit in a bucket of buzzard shit, the full cold weather analysis.
colder than a mother in laws kiss..
That's enough to gag a maggot off a gut wagon.
If having a surfeit of corrupt banksters and being the unhappiest place in the land of the free (New York ranks 318th out of 318) and having 357 cases of Ebola under monitoring will not keep you from New York, perhaps, the weather will.
Providence works in mysterious ways to preserve your happinness.
Speaking of which, where is Flounder's sorry ass?
He must have conquered Ebola single handed. Haven't heard a thing about it.
Thank you Jesus, Praise the Lord.
Ahah! I've uncovered a new word for the lap dog media to run with...Bombogenesis.
Which of course calls for a Bombogenesis Czar!
OK I'll bite
What's a Bomogenesis?
I was introduced to the word for the first time today. It's da bombest.
http://www.weather.com/news/science/what-bombogenesis-weather-bomb-20140...
mid november and cold weather. should have used larger headlines
I'm starting to think it gets cold in winter, when the daylight shortens.
Where is my Nobel prize ?
They already gave one out for that to Al Ghorrible
No, his was for thinking it gets warm in summer or sumfing.
Totally different.
Nah. Football causes cold weather. When they start playing football, it starts geting colder. When they quit, it starts getting warmer. Obvious.
Churchill? Implicated in allowing the famine murders of so many in India, and for the Dresden firebombing? Your Nobel Peace prize is in the mail.
Bring it on! I love this global warming.
But but but, wut about da polar bars?
Do they live in the midwest?
No silly, the zoo.
OH, oh, Great movie concept.
Polar Bears in Deeetroit. Hilarity ensues...
Polar Bear Vortex? like Sharknado?
Excuses just in time .... did they call god's hotline?
Listen Zero's.
Soooo, nice weather were having here on earth, huh?
Oh brother!
Real nice out here in Colorado. Been getting a lot done on the solar panel project. Usual flood of sunshine all day long. Supposed to be better tomorrow but a cold front for Monday night.
You have crap weather back wherever?
where's Al Gore
Yep the Maunder Minimum (mini ice age) has returned. Don't want to own any property in the upper states over the next 100 years.
England is going to be screwed too. Tater famine right around the corner.
We have been busy preparing for the coming cold snap up here on the mountain.
The other day I found an older standing dead tree on some nearby property I maintain. It contained at least half a cord of 'naturally' seasoned wood and was there for the taking. I tackled it this morning and was surprised by what I found inside.
After felling the tree, as I was sectioning it to my surprise about four feet up from the base my brand new chainsaw chain hit something very hard that produced plenty of sparks. Instantly the chain was dulled and I pulled back in disgust, assuming someone had placed a nail in the tree years back and I had the unfortunate luck to find it.
I grabbed my backup chainsaw and finished the job, then hauled the four foot section containing the 'nail' back to the homestead for dissection with a Saws-All. What I found was very interesting. Maybe someone out there can help me determine what is in the tree.
Of note the tree was on the property line and I suspect a property corner. The 'object' appears to be a ceramic and is obviously machined with square edges. At first I thought it to be stone, but it feels like ceramic. There also appears to be a nail in the other section of the log (not shown) that is still semi embedded in the wood.
By counting tree rings it appears this 'thing' was nailed to the tree when the tree was about 25 years old and after doing so another 65 years passed. I placed the screw driver next to it to illustrate the angle of the 'thing' in the wood. If you look closely, the piece on the left is cracked and had fallen out. I placed it back where it belongs for illustration purposes. It is about 1/2 inch by 1/2 inch by an unknown length. I have never seen anything like it nor do I have any idea how long it is.
Could this be an old style property marker from the late 40's/early 50's? Any help would be appreciated.
CD porceline suggests some sort of insulater for electric wire, this tree was perhaps a 'telephone pole ' at one time . Killing a chain saw blade for a find like this boggles the mind as to the universes fairness ! I have an embedded clothsline pulley in a stove length of oak that I cut up from a tree that fell on my neighbors house after sandy, i missed it with the chiansaw but nicked it on trhe fisrst shot with the maul
I briefly considered it to be an electrical insulator, but it is at the base of the tree, not the top. And I have never seen square edged insulators. The ones I have seen (modern or old) are always round edged and more robust since the insulator must actually support the wire.
On the other hand the tree was found on the edge of the ridge with a quarter mile drop down. So it might make sense for there to be something here like a transmitter or something. But there is no power out here, especially 65 years ago. Nearest power would have been 2 miles away further back along the plateau. Maybe battery operator wireless repeater? The time frame puts it back in the early 50's, late 40's if I counted tree rings correctly.
Very strange.
Alien Out of Place Object, good for a visit from the Discovery Channel.
Praise be!
The book royalties are amazing!
PS Be sure to ground your tin foil hat.
I have always been fascinated by "Out of Place Objects" and as soon as I exposed the 'object thingy' I wondered if I had found one. I have documented the find with images. Discovery Channel here I come. :-)
Maple tap?
Not likely. It is ceramic and would not withstand the stress of repeated use. There were stronger cheaper materials available even 65 years ago.
Plus the cross section is square, not round. Why would they put a square tap in a round drilled hole?
Does it have a square cross section for it's full length or only part way? What are the dimensions?
I don't know if it has a square cross section for it's full length because it is buried within a seasoned hard wood. I can't dig it out without breaking it up into small pieces. I supposed I could try to use the wood splitter on the logs and see if it will split at that point, but I may do more damage.
My guess would be a maple tap. Round cross section area for most of it's length in the original bore hole. Square cross section at the end was the original stop, which the tree grew around after it was abandoned.
You were probably right the first time, CD, a property marker. Virginia used meets and bounds from the colonial days. I've seen deeds saying "from the old oak tree". If you were lucky, you might find a stump.
A surveyor, or more likely the owners, posted that as a replacement for a long gone reference point, quite obvious and visible at the time, and then forget about it, and that trees grow around ceramics. You'll find worse if you keep at it. Trust me on this;)
But why ceramic? A steel rod will last many decades in the ground and it won't break or snap. Ceramic is brittle.
Maybe visible from a distance? Old trail or spring location?
Three knotched trail parallels Interstate 64 over Afton mountain west of Charlottesville. It's the original path through the Blue Ridge and into the Shenandoah Valley. Maybe you have something similar. Good mystery.
Yes, good mystery.
The location is right at the edge of the Blue Ridge plateau. Literally. If I stepped 3 feet further away from the tree I would have fallen a quarter mile down a near sheer cliff face. The Blue Ridge parkway is two miles away from this location.
Here is the tree before I cut it. The drop off begins to the left of it and rapidly falls off. You can't see it in this image, but Pilot Mountain in NC is in the background.
Ceramic was likely cheaper and more available than steel at the tim, and doesn't rust away.
Also, there were some crazy things done to avoid using steel during WW2, so if it dates back that far, could be a possibility as well.
Insulator for an electric fence.
Well Cog , I have cut quite a bit of cord wood in my time on this earth. I have found , nails , barbed and other types of wire , bullets , ceramic and glass insulators but that is a very curious looking bit of something. Property marker or other monument is a good guess.
I love the what is it game !
BTW Thank you for all your hard work , I really enjoy your thought exercises.
Thank you. Many of them are long reads and not suited for everyone. But I appreciate that you enjoy my musings.
curious thing this is.
can ceramic dull a chainsaw blade?
There are those ceramic things used to hold elecrified fencing from back in the day and you mention property line, so I'd vote the tree may have been part of an earlier preppers' attempt to guard against unwanteds..
;
What is even more curious is there is no evidence of chain saw marks nor Saws-All (reciprocating saw) blade marks on the object. Yet I dulled one chain saw and two Saws-All blades on it. I exposed it by cutting the wood all around it, then the piece snapped when it was the only thing holding the weight of the wood, at least 150 lbs.
edit: Just read this about ceramics and blades.
Although
this question is "just for fun," we do have to remember that a few
strange people are putting ceramics into trees to try to prevent their
harvest. A blade will not cut ceramic - rather there will be a major
disaster when the saw hits this ceramic, perhaps leading to loss of
life. Ceramics cannot be found with metal detectors or iron-stained
wood.
Gene Wengert, forum moderator
- See more at: http://www.woodweb.com/knowledge_base/Strange_stories_from_the_sawmill.html#sthash.u0Hw4FWn.dpuf
Ceramic line holder for an electric fence would be my guess. What height was the cut made at? That might help diagnose the origin (fence height versus phone/power line height).
http://i01.i.aliimg.com/photo/v0/1407377025/Electric_Fence_Strain_Wire_Insulator.jpg_220x220.jpg
I considered that, but there edges are machined flat. The image below (of the other half of the 4 foot section of tree) shows the size, but the edges are much cleaner and flatter than they appear in the image. The fourth side is curved as you can see. The black mark in the middle is the nail mentioned. Or at least I think it is a nail.
I know exactly what that is!
It is a WIDGET. We studied them extensively in Economics. I must admit, I never envisioned seeing one in the middle of a tree.
note to self: check trees in backyard tomorrow for widgets.
Of course!
(smacks forehead)
I shall send off images to Krugman for an 'expert' evaluation of the always elusive 'widget'.
/snarc
Looks like a screw in electrical insulator to me. Is the exterior finish of the ceramic shiny brown in color?
No. It is white like the inside.
Probably and old survey marking pin as the new ones are covered at the top of the peg with orange plastic to aid in identification. When I purcased some land in the country a while back I had to find my survey peg with a gas lawmower because I did not want to spend the money on a bush hog.
Suffice to say that when my lawnmower blade finally found the marker
I had to purchase a whole new lawnmower for my land. Make sure you buy a new chain for the chainsaw before firing it up again. The chain has been compromised IMHO.
yep, survey marker.
I guess I need to do some research on property markets from the 40's and 50's.
We are rapidly adding new equipment to the homestead. I have yet to update our website with all the new toys we have acquired. Coming soon.
We just picked up a nearly new 27 ton log splitter.
Gosh, you've... really got some nice toys here
Did I mention I really LOVE my swivel dump cart?
I paid good money for it, but it is worth every penny I paid and more. You cannot overload the sucker. I haul everything in it.
Mrs. Cog just called it my 'backpack'. lol
Get a used old wood lathe so you can turn wood given that you have a good supply for free right there in the woods. I bought an old Walker-Turner wood lathe just for fun when I bought my land and had all that free wood. Wood turning is a great hobby during the winter when it's too cold to go out. That shed looks good enough for a hobby shop too. cheers
I just picked up a small used wood lathe, a TurncrafterPro Lathe model # TCLPRO
And that building in the back of the image is half garage, half workshop. I need to evict all the various pieces of power equipment so I can have my shop back. :-)
I put a pallet on stumps on the backside of my splitter, for half the log to roll onto on the first split.
Don't want to keep picking the darn thing from the ground, save your back.
Nice stack.
Stack On
"Get a sharpening jig for your saw, you'll be able to sharpen up your chain in a few minutes."
Next on the list. "Oh honey........."
I got a power sharpener years ago, found I don't use it any more. I like the meditatiive time sharpening chain by hand, but I'm on the land over 40 years now, and have more time as winter approaches because all the major buildings and fencing and stuff is done. My biggest physical problems these days is the three damn hen turkeys that come over the fence every morning and stay all day, scratching shit all over the place, and a young black bear that has learned to beat my electic fence by digging under it - the apples he was after are all gone, so he is too, but like arnold, he'll be back...My much bigger problem is that Missus Nobody died on me this February after 44 (almost) years of marriage, and the place is kinda empty these days and it is hard to give a shit.
Our major spring project this year was expanding the size of the garden which included a new fence. While many around here swear by electric fences we decided against it for one simple reason. If the electric fence were ever to fail for ANY reason there is no physical barrier between what wants to get in and what is inside the fence.....including many apple trees inside and lots of deer and bear outside.
I have (re)learned how to sharpen a chain by hand and I also enjoy the process when I have time on my hands. But I also want the ability to knock out several chains quickly if I need to do so.
Sorry to hear about the loss of the Mrs. I've grown kinda attached to Mrs. Cog and would miss her if we departed.
If you are using a big enough saw that runs a 3/8 pitch chain , I recommend skip tooth chisel chain. It is best when hand filing because there are are only half the teeth to file. We have big wood here in the rainforest and I often use a 36" bar on my MS660 for falling. I do not have a chain grinder and filing a full comp chain on a 36" bar would take an hour .......so I use full chisel skip tooth chain. They only have a cutter on every other link. Happy filing ;)
So VERY sorry to hear about Missus Nobody passing.
But, you have to continue to give a shit without her, I know it's extremely hard and unthinkable.
However, it is exactly what she would want you to do!
All my best wishes for you :)
You're very quick.
I realized you needed no advice and I had no invitation.
Your idea of a pallet was actually well received and I am seriously considering it. I tire quickly from the constant bending and lifting while using the splitter. While there are small arms on either side of the splitter to hold the wood as it is split, they are too small and it is difficult to handle the wood and the splitter control at the same time.
I also use the table to stack blocks onto, pre-split, then roll them into the splitter cradle.
It surely saves some effort and dropped halves on your toes.
I burn about five cords a year.
When kids or dogs come in the house,
The first place they go to;
In front of the stove.
I appreciate your writings CD, splitting wood is good for the thinker.
Witness Marker in a tree. Sometimes one can find glass insulators grown over from old telephone or power lines etc...
There might be gold in that thar tree.
http://www.woodweb.com/knowledge_base/Strange_stories_from_the_sawmill.html
Mrs. Cog just sent me this link a few minutes ago. Too funny.
Just read this on that link. Interesting. Since the tree was on the property line and most likely the corner of the property I suspect the owner didn't want the tree to be cut down. I actually cut lower than I normally would to fell the tree. If I had cut where I usually do I would have hit this thing and stopped. The tree would not have been felled.
Although
this question is "just for fun," we do have to remember that a few
strange people are putting ceramics into trees to try to prevent their
harvest. A blade will not cut ceramic - rather there will be a major
disaster when the saw hits this ceramic, perhaps leading to loss of
life. Ceramics cannot be found with metal detectors or iron-stained
wood.
Gene Wengert, forum moderator
Although
this question is "just for fun," we do have to remember that a few
strange people are putting ceramics into trees to try to prevent their
harvest. A blade will not cut ceramic - rather there will be a major
disaster when the saw hits this ceramic, perhaps leading to loss of
life. Ceramics cannot be found with metal detectors or iron-stained
wood.
Gene Wengert, forum moderator
- See more at: http://www.woodweb.com/knowledge_base/Strange_stories_from_the_sawmill.h...
electrical line insulator? power line once carried by tree?
You might find wisdom at www.arboristsite.com.
Thanks. A wealth of info there. Have bookmarked it.
No to Gore tax! Yes to Gore tex!
If the polar system is pushed south into the eastern USA, then the warm Pacific air will likely flow north past Alaska and into the vacated high arctic. This just means more warm temperatures in an already fast warming Arctic. The planet as a whole simply takes in a quantity of solar energy, the + budget, that which does not radiate back out, the - budget, stays on and is subject to fluid dynamics and heat transfer. All the weather we see is simply hot air racing to meet colder air and try and balance the heat equation down to one single temperature of Earth. Winds and storms are just that energy making their moves. What matters is the overall heat/energy budget. Is the overall average temperature of Atmosphere, Land and Water going up or down. By far most heat energy is trapped in the oceans. Even the deep oceans. Land takes a chunk of energy and atmosphre gets a tiny fraction. So the real story of heat in the high arctic is the story of water temperatures in that ocean. All indication point to vastly warmer seas, and deep sea heating as well. That is what is letting loose the new and larger methane plumes. The Russian expedition to measure methane there has returned. With shocking evidence, but they have informed the others in the scientific world that Russian Government forces have pressured them heavily to to redact and to withhold much of what they have found, on security grounds. Russia is a world fossil energy producer, and in no hurry for bad news on the global warming front.
So the sky is growing but there is no need to alert chicken little because it is not falling.
Your on the right track Jack, but a little light on the physics involved. Basically the weather is caused by a heat engine. As in any engine, it works by the difference between hot and cold. This difference in energy produces work. We see this work as waves, weather, wind, storms, etc. As the global temperature increases (as it has since the Holocene 22,000 years prior), the temperature difference (and hence the engine's efficiency) between the hottest parts (the equator) and the coldest parts (the poles) decreases. What is actually happening is that a portion (unknown) of the heat is being transferred from the equator to the poles where it is radiated back to space. Another portion (unknown) is abosorbed by the oceans. The result is the measurable decrease in violent weather (energy/work) due to this natural ENSO phenomena. This is the main reason why those meteorologists (who understand the Carnot cycle of the weather engine) became skeptical of the mainstream climatologists whose models projected an entirely opposite reaction which has not followed observational data (like the tropospheric hotspot which has not happened).
This is just one example that the planet is self regulating and is in no danger of over heating or becoming irreversibly hot.
For example, the Cretaceous period lasted almost 80 million years with temperatures 4 degrees C higher and C02 at 1700 ppm. The result was incredible biodiversity.
The end was caused by an asteroid strike.
All our current efforts at fighting Climate Change (aka Global Warming), should be put into fighting extinction events, which is something we have real control over (maybe...).
All that said, clean air, water and a healthy environment are certainly worth pursuing.
There are plenty of "alternatives" which do not involve change of lifestyle or starvation and poverty.
So, are you essentially saying that global warming means less severe weather?
If more energy is being added into the system than is leaving it, doesn't the system as a whole become more energetic?
Like if you have a flywheel and you are adding more and more power to it faster than it loses power from friction, it just goes faster and faster?
What I am saying is that the efficiency of the heat engine decreases as the delta temperature between the cold and hot part of the engine decreases.
In other words, the cold part absorbs the heat faster than the warm part.
Therefore it takes more work to create a Cat 4 hurricane today, then it did 100 years ago (all else being equal).
We will still see Cat 4 hurricanes, just not as often as before.
The observational data on this is becoming quite clear.
I heard that the Russian team got so cold that they literally froze in their tracks. The corpsicles are still standing there in the middle of the frozen tundra, vodka bottles in hand, their eyes open, toasting each other under the stars for all eternity.
Seriously, the stuff trotted out by the IPCC is sad. Media hype notwithstanding, real science simply isn't on their side anymore. Temperatures are FALLING. The ice is GROWING. CO2 is GOOD. Vodka in moderation is GOOD. Self-serving technocrats, brainwashed bureaucrats and con-feeding lobbyists are BAD.
Maunder Minimum, my friend! Maunder Minimum...
You don't think both could be true?
More insulation from greenhouse gases, both manmade and natural, along with a long cycle of low sunspots?
The process of awakening begins with understanding Technocracy and consideration of the reason why 'greenhouse gas' was very carefully and deliberately selected out of a wide range of options for the implementation of Agenda 21. 'Greenhouse gas' is essential stuff of life, making it instrumental as a means of manipulative guilt-tripping for the purpose of BEHAVIOUR MODIFICATION AND SOCIAL CONTROL. Any resemblance to natural phenomena is incidental. This admission is a matter of public record. For example:
It doesn't matter what is true. It only matters what people believe is true. - Paul Watson, co-founder of Greenpeace
Whenever you hear something in the controlled media about "global warming" or the more noncommital, strategically ambiguous "climate change," ask yourself what is missing. Invariably, the only evidence presented is that which supports the Cause.
Agenda 21 Beginnings: Technocracy and the New World Order
Great parody of an ignorant "climate sceptic".
Because you actually aren't dumb enough to seriously believe in the crap you just posted, right?
O'Bummer-O-genesis is empirical fact, and not fiction, Z/H. O'Bummer-O-genesis, and the Polar Votex, was predicted months in advance by my Metis Aboriginal fishing & hunting buddy from up the line in Renfrew County Ontario. He is always right about long term weather and he knows how to survive in the bush in CANADA. He is not as good a fisherman as myself, but he predicts the weather well IMHO. This Polar Votex thing might seem strange to those in southern climates, but it is reality in Northern climates like CANADA and Northern US states like New York State. I kid you not, Hawaii.
Agreed. Local media attributed "destruction" of the salmon fishery to "global warming" a few years ago when the catch dropped unexpectedly. Well, turns out it wasn't wholly unexpected. Overfishing notwithstanding (!), natives knew the fish followed the warmer current, and simply waited for the current to shift. Behold! The fish came back, and we broke new records this year. Weaponization of science needs to stop.
Wahey, they can bring back the cold weather excuse to blame the dismal economy figures in Xmas.
Good year - polar vortex in winter and desert in Cali in summer.
Sometimes I wonder if all the over building of residential property around the world was more than just brainless speculation and crime but was for the potential weather cataclysim which would force mass migrations to unknown areas.
Weather!!! You'd think the seasons were shifting and the days getting shorter!
What are we going to do!?!? "Black Friday" will become "Frozen Friday"!
Bullish for Disney, but people won't be able to get to Target or Kohl's!
An Alberta Clipper is building today, temperature dropping and a couple inches of snow.
We'll be sending it your way tomorrow night.
Burn gaz bitchez.
http://weather.gc.ca/satellite/animateweb_e.html?imagetype=satellite&ima...
Fuck the progressives and their global warming bullshit.
Who would ever think advanced technologies would be used in this manner. I posted a letter on this same topic from Larry E, Craig regarding the:
Text of the Weather Modification Research and Development Policy Authorization Act of 2005Yeah, so explain why and how this ever got into Congress and who got this bill in.
And here is another topic that combines off topic with topical subjects regarding currency:
Dark Journalist & Paul Hellyer Discuss UFOs, Illuminate and New World Order[M]r. Hellyer says World War III will be between the Big Banks and the average citizens of the world! He compares the present centralized, corrupt money system as a serpent that is slowly squeezing the life out of people everywhere and says if it is not stopped we will all be turned into debt slaves! He calls for immediate action to reverse course on the destruction of the environment and the restoration of privacy rights being eliminated by Orwellian, authoritarian policies with cooperation by the major media organizations.
Cut it's head off.
Come on guys, put your thinking caps on.
You really believe they're going to blame the WEATHER for an economic slowdown right after a GOP takeover of the Senate?
Not hardly.
A polar vortex Winter is perfect for my plans. The gas line to my heater is plugged, and my semi-deadbeat roomate prefers it very warm. This morning I'm dressed in a t-shirt and shorts while he's in a thick flannel overcoat with the internal house temp at 68F.
Cry me a fuckin' river mooch as I'm descended from Yankees and Newfoundlanders, and I live in the South. You want it warmer you should fuckin' pay me my money on time.
Come on Polar Vortex really far South, make my house 45F or less internally all the damn time!!!! For the record, I can write the check to fix it quicker than I can get a plumber here to do it, but I'm not going to do it. Bwahahahaha!!!!
The only thing I worry about are my orange trees as last year's polar vortex did not do them much good.
Bring that Polar Vortex to me. I beg of you!!!
Wait til he goes to sleep and then prop the refrigerator door open.
The "polar vortex" has nothing to do with a Typhoon, what's really going on is some evil bastards are heating the Ionosphere with RF (probably HAARP) resulting in an almost permanent high pressure cell off the coast of California. This persistent high pressure is moving the jet stream farther North, picking up Arctic air, then resuming it's normal path Southward. And it's keeping all the rain/snow away from California. 90's in Socal today.
If you want to watch this unfold in near reatime, watch the Earth Forecast.
A visualization of global weather conditions forecast by supercomputers updated every three hours.
The data Wind @250 hPa is the altitude of the Jetstream.
It's time to go long on snowmobiles.
Hope the Amazon delivery drones are weatherized for icing on the propellers.
Failed weather shipment conditions will be the new norm.
This is all so silly and clearly a case of over-kill regarding how it affects the economy.
It is fall and yes, sometimes we have chillier falls than others. Those that prepare, just start a pot of soup from their pantry and bake a loaf of bread or some dinner rolls to go with. And enjoy staying in with loved ones.
Not an emergency, no cause for panic.
I have more important things to panic over ... like what the hell am I going to serve for Thanksgiving < which is quickly becoming TWO weeks out >
You guys should let me be one of the Tylers.
Salah
PS: Bastardi...http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-november-8-2014
OT
I don't know what ads the rest of you are getting with this article, but on the left side I have a couple of boys who don't play the way I do hugging on each other and offering some all gay cruise. Not sure how I got this ad as there is nothing more repulsive to me. Not sure if the Hedge is hurting for money or is willingly promoting this sick bs. I am going to ask that it not be put up on my screen as it is revolting and a waste of ad dollars on me. I will give it 48 hrs and if I get another one of these disgusting ads on a page I am viewing, I will be done at ZH.
The local news said it was a dose of Siberian air. So come up with all your girations of how it got here, but the fact is it still gets cold where there is little sunlight in the winter and often that cold air dips into the U.S. In other words...it's no big deal....
Polar Vortex???? what the fuck - It's called winter
Well, here's the gov'ts excuse for a crappy Q4 and failure to reach "projected" 2014 GDP numbers!
I suggest dipping Obama in an ice bath and noting whether it is indeed cold enough to freeze the balls off a crass monkey.
I get your point Z/H, but it's not a polar vortex.
Good info in the link below.
http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-november-8-2014
It is worse than you thought .
At best , some ArkStorms will help California
See
https://www.academia.edu/9204956/Slingshot_Atmospheric_Rivers