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Despite "Great" Jobs Data, Fed's Labor Market Conditions Index Unchanged In October
At 4.0, the Fed's goal-seeked 19-factor Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI) is unchanged in October (but everyone said Friday that jobs were great?). This is marginally below the average level of the last 4 years and provides the perfect ammunition for the Fed to be lower-for-longer... even as initial jobless claims near 40 year lows.
Not exactly the picture of awesomeness that the talking-heads would suggest eh?
Jobs better improve soon or the animal spirits are gonna fade...
But then again - when have jobs had anything to do with stocks?
Charts: Bloomberg
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Palestinians break through West Bank barrier to mark Berlin Wall anniversary
Why are those down dips getting bigger and more frequent since 1991? Coincidence, I'm sure.
The next leg down should be a doozy when people star getting laid off their three part time jobs.
The Federal Reserve:
moving the goal posts since 1913.
+1000
2% at a time.
Labor market numbers are whatever numbers the ministry of truth wants them to be.
Funny how none of the talking heads say anything about the U6 unemployment rate that is sitting at just under 12 effing %...What a joke.
US Employment
319 Million = Total Population (FRED)
245 Million = Total Population over 16 years old (BLS)
147 Million = Total Employed (FRED & BLS)
92 Million = Total Not in Labor Force (FRED)
98 Million = Total Not in Labor Force (BLS over 16)
37% are not Employed and over 16 years old (BLS population)
40% not Employed using BLS over 16 Population minus Total Employed
Anyway, 98 Million, say 100 Million US Citizens unemployed... and not that many students. Say 77 Million Unemployed US Voters... many on fixed income? Must be at least 50 Million on welfare or food stamps.
- 12 million people with disabilities might work if job was a good one
- 13 Million live in public or subsidized Housing
- 23 Million in WIC
- 49 Million get Food Stamps
- 82 Million people on Medicaid
- 151 Million people receive some kind of assistance
In fall 2014, some 21.0 million students are expected to attend American colleges and universities, constituting an increase of about 5.7 million since fall 2000 (http://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d13/tables/dt13_105.20.asp).
http://cnsnews.com/news/article/terence-p-jeffrey/census-49-americans-ge... (data from 2011)
here is the bottom-line: the fed is never going to really raise rates. raising rates .25 off the 0-line we've been sitting on for the last 6 years is not raising rates. REALLY raising rates is NEVER going to happen. they will continue to lie about "no inflation anywhere" while college now costs $55,000 a year for a decent school, a basket of groceries is $500, and "the people" think they are getting a discount on gas now that its barely below $3.00 a gallon.
the fed just told you that now they are looking to whats going on in overseas markets as rational as to why they won't raise rates (appearantly, they just created an a third mandate).
this might be the only time i agree with larry summers: he was quoted saying he believed we were running the risk of entering a "downtown abby" economy. based on the internals of the jobs reports the last few years (ie. 200,000 jobs being the high-bar, 1/2 of which are partime jobs), i think he's right. low rates, lie about inflation, low-to-no economic growth, so-long-as we avoid any market crashes (with central banks around the world buying everything in sight with made up money). sounds like he's onto something. oh, that and when he said the government shouldn't be in the VC business right before solyndra went up in flames.
basically, we will keep doing everything we shouldn't be doing (monetizing the existing debt, creating new debt, expanding the nanny state) instead of what we should be doing (cutting promises that can't be kept, slashing existing programs that can't be kept up with, normalizing the tax code 'flat tax', normalizing interest rates, encouraging people to save & invest rather than stand in line 5 days for an iphone.
would be nice to come back to planet earth but i just don't see it.
never say never
having said that ... King Dollar is waayyy too strong now to entertain raising interest rates
(raising rates would make usd even stronger)
re october NFP report
BLS typically conducts its monthly survey during the week containing the 12th
october 12, 2013 was at the end of the SECOND week of the month
october 12, 2014 was at the beginning of the THIRD week of the month
with holiday retail being pulled ever more forward every year (blast off nov 1) ... the timing of survey could have large impact on jobs count
It's just a damned shame that I'm up to my neck in debt and have to use any extra income to pay that down/off. I'm in so deep that I'd have to raid my retirement funds to see daylight and I dont' really want to do that.
I would be backing up the truck on silver. I mean this is a no brainer. Even if the prices continue to fall for a while, buying precious metals (I can't really afford gold even at this price) is what I would do with any extra income.
I'm so pissed.
Data good enough to report everything's just peachy, but not so good to raise rates or end hand-holding of all markets 24/7.