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John Williams' Take On The October Unemployment Report: "The Economy Remains In Terrible Shape"
When it comes to inflation data, there are two parallel sources: the BLS, and ShadowStats' John Williams, who continues to plough through the underlying "data" using pre-pre-pre-revision protocols, and every month reveals a parallel universe in which something shocking is revealed: the truth. Here is his take on the October "weaker but really stronger than expected" jobs numbers. Here is what really happened.
From ShadowStats
Never Recovered, the Economy Remains in Terrible Shape. The large number of opening headlines in today’s (November 9th) missive reflects various stories, ranging from twisted unemployment data, to an election dominated by underlying economic reality, and to headline 2014 financial results on the federal government’s operations that should raise some troubling questions in the markets. The general outlook is unchanged
Twisted Unemployment Numbers. Headline October 2014 unemployment reporting, in particular, was skewed heavily by warped seasonal-adjustment factors that do account properly for last year’s government shutdown. When the U.S. government closed in October 2013, the shutdown encompassed the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) base-period for determining the unemployment and employment detail in the household survey, as well as for determining employment in the payroll survey. The BLS was unable to determine fully the impact of the government shutdown on the monthly October labor data.
For last year’s October 2013 headline payroll-employment survey, the shutdown’s impact generally was guesstimated by the BLS, but it was not reflected in the headline reporting of the time. For the headline unemployment and employment detail, some government employees were counted among the unemployed as being on temporary lay-off, some were just counted as employed but absent from work. Where the headline employed dropped by 735,000, unemployed only rose by 17,000 in October 2013 (see Commentary No. 572 and Commentary No. 580 for the analysis of the time). Where all government employees should have returned to work by the November 2013 reporting, the headline employed rose by 818,000, the unemployed dropped by 365,000.
The BLS never attempted to correct its data, and heavy distortions to the regular seasonal-adjustment process were a virtual certainty. As revised in December 2013, only for the resetting of seasonal adjustment factors—not adjusting for poor-quality reporting—seasonally-adjusted household data now show employment dropping by 785,000 in October 2013 and rebounding by 958,000 in November 2013.
Distorted Numbers One Year Later. The seasonally-adjusted 683,000 jump just reported in headline October 2014 household-survey employment largely was an offsetting seasonally-adjusted artefact of those 2013 events. The October 2013 plunge in household employment, and the counter-adjusted jump in October 2014 employment, can be seen later in these Opening Comments in the Employment and Unemployment section, in the graphs of Civilian Employment Level and the Civilian Employment-to-Population Ratio.
Employment Should Fall Sharply and the Unemployment Rate Should Rise in November. Reversing the swings seen in 2013, November 2014 likely will move sharply in the opposite direction from October, as the reporting and adjusting imbalances catch up. Watch for an offsetting sharp headline decline in the November 2014 household-survey employment number, and an increase in the November headline unemployment rate.
Otherwise, the headline October 2014 payroll employment and unemployment reporting suffered their regular distortions and non-comparable month-to-month estimates, where the non-comparability results from BLS reporting policies tied to the concurrent seasonal-factor adjustment process (see Reporting Detail section), with general detail and misreporting summarized later in these Opening Comments.
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At least he scores movie music alright. /s
too many ditch diggers and not enough ditch digger jobs
WTF happened to all those "Shovel Ready" Jobs Obummer was going to create?
moar Republikan propaganda ... thats how they stole the elections!
Hey, the readers here know you can skip the labels. Just call them all criminals. It sames time.
All due to the impending cold spell and possible EMP form the sun's discharges of late. Everybody's cowering in their bunkers. Waiting for the Ebola Czar to sound the all clear.
Is this shit fucked up, or what?
He has buried a lot of civilians overseas, outsourcing again.
He didn't say where those shovel ready jobs would be.
Not much left to bury after 500 pounds if high explosives hit a wedding or backyard bbq
Fill the hole that the 500 lbs created. Of course. You never read Catch-22...?
Failure of the Ebola virus to reach its full contagion potential.
They got shoveled like a lot of other BS he talks about.
Buried with the rest of the truth.
You realize, Osmium, that Obama meant "Shovel Shit Ready" jobs. Obama is blind. All he knows is bullshit.
If those shovel ready jobs were to build new golf courses you can damn well bet we would have full employment right now.
Yeah! Exactly what happened to all those "shovel-ready jobs"?
Read my mind
Part time burger flippers and barrista's are allergic to shovels.....
Soon to be replaced by a machine. The robolution is picking up speed. There´s a brand new burger-machine that mixes and chops and grills to perfection. Flippin´has gone the way of the dinosaurs. As for coffee there are also great machines. Not the ones that Clooney flogs. But real ones.
All right, let's hear it for "Robo-Americans," then!
When the FEMA camps go live, there will be plenty of ditch digger jobs.
Too bad that most will be filled by those that will soon be in the ditches.
An American, not US subject.
"Ditch Digging Macht Frei."
You mean grave diggers...?
After all, wouldn’t this be more consistent for an agency modelled on French Committees of Terror (1792-4), the Judeo-Bolshevik Cheka (and its successors), and the Nazi Schutzstaffel (SS)? (Complete article)
At least gas is cheap
/s
Until it isn't.
Nothing is ever good for ShadowStats.
I get my stats from Sunnystats.
Wasn't Mellish the name of the Jew in Saving Private Ryan?
Alias BLS.
I thought the government numbers were the sunnystats.
Bullshit usually isn't good enough for sane people
<---- The unemployment rate is 5.8%
<---- My cock is 12" long and I can do pushups without using my arms
Spot the bigger lie.
I'm not folding mine in half to compete with you.
The first liar doesn't have a chance around here. lol
yet equities are at an all time high...
Stocks are gonna' pop some tags...
why working...invest in the stock market we'll be all rich!!
Since Obama legalized the cannabis, all stats are stoned
Legalized/? So where's my Obama stash?
anybody else feel like they have read this before??
Deja vu on a daily basis.....
its too bad the economy defined by the job is still the standard. the kid playing video games in my basement all day is a deferred asset. no really, he may raise his hand eye coordination to a level where he can do robotic heart surgery. look at old pictures of the depression, people standing around, you don't see that now, everyone is busy doing something. actually its a disease, people don't know how to kick back anymore, the rat race of the 50s is the norm for millenials, is just without the job.
Its an election year. All reality or common sense is thrown out the window.
Similar to rutting season.
not to mention my second week vs third week survey possible wrench
and ANYONE who shops knows that retailers have been moving the holiday shopping season ever earlier ... kickoff pretty much nov 1 ... which means hiring EARLIER ... have the economist adjusted properly for this? ... if not, they could see a bump in hiring and make mistake of saying it from economy getting better ... rather than retailers hiring a few weeks earlier than old norm (AND letting them go earlier)
http://cdn.alltheragefaces.com/img/faces/large/misc-you-dont-say-l.png
Having read the entire article I found myself wondering why the Shadowstats unemployment figures based on historic US govt methodology were omitted from the article...and so I looked them up and saw that instead of 5,8% they are 23%!
Yep. Only so much room to print all the nasties bits in an economic disaster like the one we got. 23% unemployment is horrifying.
Horrifying, but true. Ask your neighbors.
who believes in govt data anyway?
I am believeing more and more in just trading on whatever momentum you see in whatever. Hit and run profits.
I like John Williams a lot. His data is pure truth. He still compiles it the way the government used to before the BLS became BS.
http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/inflation-vs-deflation-part-2why-year...
All this shit is going to change after the election. The Dems are just keeping the market up and gas prices down until after the election. Then you fuckers are going to pay.
As we always do.
About the unemployment numbers:
They lie about everything, always. Why would the lie about this?!
An American, not US subject.
"Ignorance is not in the lies, but the believing of the lies."
Geez, is that thumbnail picture (http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/fp_thumb/images/...) for this article (appearing on the main page) of John himself? If so, then John should also put himself in the category of being in "terrible shape!" Looks like an approaching diabetic train-wreck...
Bring back the WPA and CCC...Work for Welfare, simply can't have people sitting home on other's dime. Work or Starve!
Absolutely positively yes.
I assume you have never been laid off and think that your talents are so incredible that they might never be viewed as not required.
Ewtman you are absolutely wrong on this. Williams is a lazy statistician. He does not, repeat NOT, recalculate the way the govt used to. He takes a fudge number and adds it. Which is okay in the first year as that is reliable but it becomes increasingly off track years later.
Im not saying the govt numbers are correct by any measure but Williams method of calculating is tragically flawed. His analysis is lazy and irrelevant unless you are looking to hear what you want to hear. He spouted that there would be hyperinflation in 2011 and earlier this year reiterated it to late 2014.
Inflation is not above 4% (in the US) as many hear would have you believe. That is just utter non-sense. Anyone that says otherwise is just nuts and horrible at math to add.
SM
ok already...
Shouldn't your signature be SDM?
Inflation is not above 4% (in the US) as many hear would have you believe. That is just utter non-sense. Anyone that says otherwise is just nuts and horrible at math to add.
I guess you don't go food shopping.
There is absolutly no doubt that he does not look at his grocery store receipts or utility bills.
Ewtman you are absolutely wrong on this. Williams is a lazy statistician. He does not, repeat NOT, recalculate the way the govt used to. He takes a fudge number and adds it. Which is okay in the first year as that is reliable but it becomes increasingly off track years later.
Im not saying the govt numbers are correct by any measure but Williams method of calculating is tragically flawed. His analysis is lazy and irrelevant unless you are looking to hear what you want to hear. He spouted that there would be hyperinflation in 2011 and earlier this year reiterated it to late 2014.
Inflation is not above 4% (in the US) as many hear would have you believe. That is just utter non-sense. Anyone that says otherwise is just nuts and horrible at math to add.
SM
sandiegoman; You have too much faith in your government numbers and reading newspapers. Lots of people do.
Everything the Federal Government does is inflating. Not the number of employees directly, but you have to count all the growing numbers of contracts and contractors. You know even AT&T is a Government Employee.
And look at Government Salaries and Bonus money, inflates every year... just like private executive compensation. If the Federal government is the largest contractor for bridges, damns & highways... you think they keep the costs down? Government contractors get to feeling entitled not only do the learn new way to inflate contracts, they also seem to steal and commit fraud (Iraqi war, Kosovo war, Bosnian War). We can't even count the number of federal contracts these days. All major computer & communications companies are probably part of the MIC. And under continuing resolution federal budget and agencies have all exploded (like drunken sailors spending).
REPOST:
US Employment
319 Million = Total Population (FRED)
245 Million = Total Population over 16 years old (BLS)
147 Million = Total Employed (FRED & BLS)
92 Million = Total Not in Labor Force (FRED)
98 Million = Total Not in Labor Force (BLS over 16)
37% are not Employed and over 16 years old (BLS population)
40% not Employed using BLS over 16 Population minus Total Employed
Anyway, 98 Million, say 100 Million US Citizens unemployed... and not that many students. Say 77 Million Unemployed US Voters... many on fixed income? Must be at least 50 Million on welfare or food stamps.
- 12 million people with disabilities might work if job was a good one
- 13 Million live in public or subsidized Housing
- 23 Million in WIC
- 49 Million get Food Stamps
- 82 Million people on Medicaid
- 151 Million people receive some kind of assistance
In fall 2014, some 21.0 million students are expected to attend American colleges and universities, constituting an increase of about 5.7 million since fall 2000 (http://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d13/tables/dt13_105.20.asp).
http://cnsnews.com/news/article/terence-p-jeffrey/census-49-americans-ge... (data from 2011)
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/B087RC1Q027SBEA (GOVT TRANSFER PAYMENTS)
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TRP6001A027NBEA (SNAP)
Williams is a lazy statistician: Nope
repeat NOT, recalculate the way the govt used to: Nope....
Inflation is not above 4%: Actual Food inflation is now running 22%. According to the consumer price index for food it is up 10% this year.
You are missing the point... Please don't tell me I'm bad at math... MSCHE and an MBA
Veteran’s Day… and transmitting ideals of liberty.
Boy becomes man only when he raises a child…
This is the day set aside to recognize sacrifices made by America’s military men to safeguard our liberties.
However, with this perspective, a light reading of recent history raises a disturbing question, ‘Did they really sacrifice for our liberties?’
For example, World War I was billed as the war to make the world safe for democracy (But some claim its purpose was 'to end all wars'). Sovereign interests in the belligerent nations manipulated their young males to volunteer for duty at their frontiers so they could slaughter young males of other nations. After some 60 million young males (among others) had been slaughtered, a truce was called – and all of Russia was gifted to Judeo-Bolsheviks.
And, this advanced the cause of liberty?
Another example, World War ii was sold on the basis that it was the war to end all wars; another 60 million young males (among others) were slaughtered, another truce – and half of Europe and all of China were gifted to Judeo-Bolsheviks.
Well, at least there would be no more wars. Right?
So, what happened in Korea? MacArthur had nearly driven the Red Chinese entirely out of Korea when Judeo-Bolsheviks, who controlled the United Nations, ordered him to retreat to the 38th parrall and halt hostilities. Then everything north of it was gifted to Judeo-Bolsheviks.
Ah, but this was just a “Police Action”… not a good example.
Vietnam? Its purpose was to stop the spread of communism. So, almost sixty thousand young American males were butchered and another half million or so were sent home hooked on drugs; a few were sent home with dope sown into their guts. During this slaughter and corruption, US Navy Seabees and the Army Corps of Engineers built roads and bridges, deep-water seaports and international airfields, hospitals and tank farms for petroleum products. After the South Korean and American CIA’s had eliminated all resistance to the communization of South Vietnam, American forces hastily evacuated Vietnam’s native bandit and useful-idiot classes, left a billion dollars of weapons on the ground, and the tank farms brimming with jet fuel.
During WW ii, much of eastern Europe and most of France were bombed to a near Stone-Age condition. Why was there so much construction in Vietnam 20 years later? And, why was it never targeted by Vietnamese communists?
They lied… I would say. The real purpose of the Vietnam war was to gift South Vietnam to Judeo-Bolsheviks. But, Americans would never have tolerated such a war had it been so stated. So, a fake war had to be staged, American male children had to be slaughtered in order to disguise its true purpose.
Afghanistan? The Taliban had practically eliminated poppy production, and thus, severely threatened the supply of heroin for dope heads around the world. So, American troops went in and dislodged the Taliban, re-established poppy production… and now guard poppy fields of Afghanistan.
Welcome to the democracy of heroin.
Iraq? Americans went in to establish democracy; it is now ruled by death squads. But Judeo-Bolsheviks now have a dependable supply of oil.
The slogan that American military men have sacrificed to secure our liberties is nothing more than a mask to conceal the fact that such men have been severely duped to subtract, or destroy, our liberties.
When we are told that “terrorists” hate us because of our freedoms and Congress promptly takes them away, what should we conclude but that Congress has been captured by “terrorists”?
And this leads to another question, ‘When did terrorists capture Congress… before WW I… before the Civil War?
No, American soldiers did not make our liberties more secure: they were duped into actions that have reduced America to a mass of rotting slaves.
I have no argument that America owes veterans a debt – not because they secured our liberties; for, our liberties have all been lost. Instead, the debt is owed because veterans have been duped into serving interests of criminal and useful-idiot classes thru-out the planet. But, let us be realistic here: some veterans were duped, and some knew exactly what they were doing, and did it willingly. Thus, some veterans are owed restitution; some deserve a penalty.
This is not the only grievance related to veterans; there is another – far more fundamental – grievance. It is related to the transmission of ideals.
Men organize societies mainly for the purpose of securing their rights and liberties of those who established such society; and, folded into this purpose is the aim to transmit such rights and liberties to the posterity of founders.
And, there has yet to be established a society that has successfully accomplished these goals.
For transmission of ideals to be successful, it is necessary that the young of that society survive, that they not be corrupted, and that they produce children of their own.
Why is it, then, that young males are sent to the frontier, or to foreign lands, to slaughter young males of another tribe? Such a policy, prevents the young to reproduce, corrupts them beyond recovery, and, most importantly, blocks the transmission of ideals.
Is there a solution? Of course there is. First we have to recognize that war is completely un-necessary.
Or, rather, it is not needed when men strictly adhere to due process of law for all people. Due process was invented to prevent disputes among men from escalating into violence; and, as a consequence, to secure their rights and liberties. When due process is not followed, men have no means to redress their grievances but by violence. Thus, where there is violence, there is a failure of due process.
But, some may ask, ‘How do we protect ourselves against terrorists?’
I just told you. Don’t forget that the meaning of “terrorist” depends on one’s point of view. To English royalty, nobility and privilege holders, men such as Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, and Thomas Paine were terrorists; some English even thot they were mentally deranged because they preferred liberty to slavery. Most Americans regard those men as freedom fighters; and they produced a revolution because the English would not redress numerous grievances. (More on due process: one and two.)
The point is that, if we would adhere to due process regarding all men, we could significantly reduce the incidence of war. I estimate that no matter what is done, there will always be 10%-30% of mankind who will always seek to live by plunder and genocide. For this eventuality, we will always need a militia (for domestic needs only) and military (for international needs only). We will also have to reorganize them. My suggestion here is to exempt all males from military duty until they have reached the age of 35, or until they have successfully raised two children; only then would they be eligible for military duty. (Discussed more fully in my book, The Lost Right.)
Now, we can finish the leading quote: ‘Boy becomes man only after he properly raises a child; then he will be capable of civilized society.’
Wasn't this the guy predicting hyper-inflation in 2014? Only a couple of months to go... and nothing.
Yes - Credit expert manipulation for the failure of hyperinflation to surface in 2014.
How long can this expert manipulation go on? Looks like forever.
Call me dumb, but it seems to me the only stat that matters is the worker participation rate. So, if the work place participation rate is 63% of what it was in 2007, then the unemployment rate is 37%.
OR am I missing something?
the sudden bad employment will be blamed on the republicans the next 2 years. DEMS are gearing up to DUMP all bad news on the racsist obstructionist republican congress to set up 2016.