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SocGen Warns: "Now May Be The Time To Focus On The Short Side"
As US QE has come to an end, depriving the world of US$1 trillion printed dollars a year, SocGen's Andrew Lapthorne warns, there are still plenty of things for investors to be concerned about. Indeed with asset prices where they are, investment returns look paltry from here on, as not only is there a long list of macroeconomic issues to worry about, but bottom-up firm level indicators are also flashing red. Valuations, as measured by median price to cash flow ratios, are near historical highs...
and the spread of company valuations within the market is near historical lows...
The implication is that downside risks are mispriced.
Throw in concerns over deteriorating earnings momentum, lacklustre earnings growth and poor earnings quality, and you have a set of variables that suggest it may be worthwhile to now focus on the short-side as much as on the long side.
* * *
So short strategies should be back on the menu
Steven Drobny of Drobny Capital is in the process of putting together his book "New House of Money" and Chapter 2, an interview with legendary short investor Jim Chanos of Kynikos Capital, is in this context chapters 1 and 2 are well worth a read.
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tough to sell when the market breaks every time you put in a short order...
BTFATH...it's easier
I wouldn't know
Short, long, sweeeet.
Solid analysis, but if you are tempted, meine Freunde,
just remember, PUTS ONLY!
These mofos love running stops.
I'm gonna fuck plus500 up come the crash. You gave me £20 free it's going short 100 on S&P when the time comes.
Gotta plan big boys.
Why would anyone short this market? Stock valuations are still extremely low. Every company has unlimited earnings potential yet the highest prices stock is well under infinity plus 1. Buy now, buy tomorrow, buy the day after. Why isn't this fucking market open 24x7 when there is so much to buy???
The market will always go up.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lDT5OpIYPUE
Exactly, you actually have to not own the stocks you are short selling.
rotsa ruck with that
what is this 'short side' verbiage?
Deja vu all over again.
Can y'all believe November 2007 was 7 years ago?
I suppose when the buy-backs stop we'll know the big flush is coming?
Whoa! There's that spooky seven shit Christine Lagarde was talking about!
And Friday is 11-14-14 !!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QYmViPTndxw
Fucking run Forest ! Run!
She has 7 tits.
"As US QE has come to an end"
Yeah right. As if the half quadrillion $ or so of interest rate swap derivatives can survive without it.
So you actually b e l i e v e the FED when they claim to have stopped?
i have heard no news that Bullard has laryngitis
...and we trust SocGen why?
The black swan we all expect to crash the party at some time if not runaway contagion could be that even the big banks see more to gain by crashing the market. I believe ugliness lies ahead. I love the way it is always being kicked out a year or two and never going to happen tomorrow. It is as if we can't handle what is coming at us and need more time.
For a long time I have been trying to develop a scenario for a market "super crash" and a reasonable map that would arrive at such a situation. Below is an article looking at how it could happen sooner rather than later. I should mention that today during the markets my brokers site crashed, I believe this means I would of been hard pressed to get off any trades.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/01/flash-crash-on-steroids.html
The FED has spent the last 6 years printing digital money and giving it out to its friends. You must be nuts to think shorting will work with such a big war chest the boyz can draw upon.
Hey, broken watches get the time right twice a day, don't they?