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China's Industrial Output Growth In 2014 Worst In Over A Decade
Having told the world that it will not be undertaking system-wide rate cuts or stimulus - focusing more on idiosyncratic safety nets - last night's data from China is likely to have the PBOC frowning. Fixed Asset Investment (lowest growth since Dec 2001) and Retail Sales (lowest growth since Feb 2006) missed expectations, but it was the re-slump in Industrial Production (after a small 'huge-credit-injection-driven' bounce in September) that is most worrisome as China's 2014 output is growing at its slowest since at least 2005. As Michael Pettis previously noted "China will be no different... growth miracles have always been the relatively easy part; it is the subsequent adjustment that has been the tough part." Of course, this is not the 'soft-landing' so many bulls have expected, which, if enabled by moar credit, as Pettis warned "will inevitably lead to a very brutal hard landing."
China Fixed Asset Investment YoY Growth slumps to 13 year lows...
China Retail Sales YoY Growth at over 8 year lows...

And worst of all China's Industrial Output Year-To-Date is growing at its weakest in at least a decade...
Which is a problem... as just this week President Obama explained how US is anything but decoupled from China...
- *OBAMA SAYS IN U.S. INTEREST FOR CHINA TO BE STABLE, PROSPEROUS
- *U.S., CHINA HAVE ENORMOUS STAKE IN EACH OTHER'S SUCCESS: OBAMA
- *U.S. WELCOMES RISE OF PEACEFUL, PROSPEROUS CHINA: OBAMA
- *U.S. ENCOURAGES ALLIES TO FOSTER STRONG CHINA TIES: OBAMA
* * *
The decoupling... globally (China, Europe, and Japan all seeing GDP estinmates slashed)
How long before the lag catches up to US? Especially with Shale Oil Capex collapsing?
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Well, China's best customers are in the toilet so what do you expect?
Maybe this is the best thing that has happened to China. Have you seen how disgusting the environment is there?
http://www.planbeconomics.com/2013/10/super-smog-hits-china-this-is-what...
But Alibaba says, "take a chance on me." https://www.google.com/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF...
And we all know that discobaba will live forever. Not a fad.
Japan picked the very worst time imaginable to kick off an eastern hemisphere (add Brazil, Canada, Australia, and a dew other emerging and developed western nation-states to that list) currency war.
South Korea, China, and all the Asian Tigers are really, really mad with Kuroda & Abe, brahs.
Germany is quite angry, too (given its current account surplus and % of GDP export dependent).
Print faster or die tryin' is ON LIKE DONKEY KONG!
More importantly: What's the best part of sex with a transvestite?
Reaching around and pretending it went all the way through.
Now that's what it's like investing in China
Not to mention the necessity of fully, and not partly, plugging a dyke/dike.
China increasingly ratchets up capital export controls.
Now they really are fucked.
The Obama Curse.
China is the production center of the world, with no other country even a close second in terms of the quantity of goods manufactured. Germany is very good at producing big ticket items like cars but cannot match China for the range of goods produced and the nimbleness of Chinese slave drivers/entrepreneurs in getting production capacity ramped up. China's pollution problem is gigantic but typical for a country that puts profit ahead of environment. Look at all the Superfund sites the United States has now, souvenirs from 40 or more years ago when the USA had an industrial heartland. The Bakken Shale fracking in North Dakota is leaving an enormous pollution wasteland, but all underground and out of sight. Talk about China collapsing economically is wishful thinking.
Things are going soooo well, I can hardly wait for the next chapter in this stirring saga...
I live in Canada, the US buys over 70% of our exports and is apparently growing at 3.5%, so why are we at 1.7%? Our 2nd largest trading partner is China, apparently growing at double digits.
Maybe I'm not as good at math as I thought, but something doesn't add up. Between USA and China, over 80% of our exports are accounted for, yet we can't move the needle even to 2%?
3.5 X .7 = 2.45%
10 X .15 = 1.5%
So we're at almost 4% growth and have accounted for 85% of our exports, that means the other 15% must be in the double digit negatives for Canada to be growing at 1.7%
Our other partners are countries like Japan, UK, Korea, etc.
Pretty obvious that neither the US or China is growing at the rate they say they are, and btw, Canada lies about its GDP too, our economy is definitely not growing. So, even the 1.7% isn't true.
China= falling GDP
US= falling GDP
are you sure it should be the combined total of 2.45% and 1.5%? shouldn't it be the average of the 2 numbers?
adding those numbers would mean if you exported to 15 different countries who had on average 1% growth each for the 15% remaining exports, it would end up giving you 15% growth, see where that might lead you?
to the equation, first, offical growth rate of China's GDP is 7.3%
7.3 x .15 = 1.095%
a weighted average of the two (2.45*.7 + 1.095*.15)/.85 gives you 2.21% growth for 85% of your exports.
I'm no Canuck so I don't know where the 1.7% growth is from, is that for exports? I only see GDP annual growth rate for Canada reported at 2.45%.
by extrapolation, it would mean other sectors of the Canadian economy, and the remaining 15% exports, would need to pull in the 3% range to average down to 2.45% with 2.21% growth coming from 85% of the export sector.
is real estate is still hot in Canada?
What? You mean the West is in a depression and they're not buying as much plastic crap and iDoodads?
And China has levered itself to the moon to enslave it's populace and give them enough jinglies to not revolt?
Not possible! All is well! All is well! This is just a blip in the matrix, a low tide, a normal cycle I tell you, a normal cycle!!!
(...pant...slobber...pant...)
It's amazing how many of the women dress really, really well--but can only afford to do so because food is almost free.
China's output is shrinking, not expanding.
It is not possbile to expand output if 30-40% of commodities and energy are locked up as collateral for derivatives, not available for consumption
China's BS official data aside, their economy is now not only contracting in real terms, but even in nominal terms.
The government will put everything into motion again building ten new gleaming empty cities.
From "the biggest bubble in history" (US Housing 2001-2008) to "an even bigger one" (China.)
Scary if true.
If you search for it, there are news releases of China's central government instructing the PBOC to ply regional banks with CNY in just the past several days.
This is a clear, obvious and the most direct form of bank bailouts and is a huge indicator of the sickness of the Chinese financial system & economic system.
China is a banking crisis waiting to happen...
Plus there's no one left to buy anything
Whaaa? Just print some money... That's what we do these days, right? Can't lose.
America would love to have half the growth China has.
Just fucking amazing.
Almost makes you question what really does hold it all together?
Many of us the are far from optimistic. While the future is hard to predict, as in politics the people who watch and study the economy are becoming more polarized as to the direction of the economy. Many of us are slipping into one of the two distinct camps, one that sees this as an economy slowly on the mend with the worse behind us and the other who clearly takes the position that things are not working.
Not only have things gotten worse but the distorted economy and manipulated markets only mask the fact that a day of reckoning is fast approaching and we are facing a bigger and meaner economic set back then any the world has witnessed in modern times. More on this subject in the article below.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/08/after-big-crash.html
bullish
You keep misspelling 'bullshit'
... bullishit ?
you can't spell bullshit without bullish...
If they're going to do it, they better do it now. It is getting ugly out.
We cannot compete with China. Look at this video. Their economy is everywhere and alive. All money will flow to China, as it has been for a decade. They have the right political and legal environment. Wall street numbers are all horsehit flag waving all day and all night, about everything. They have been wrong on China for years because they cannot recognize a real economy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vth6k9otgR0&list=UUp_i632yhFIF3vp0Lt7dl1...
The debate continues as to how stable china really is. A big reason dropping house prices in China is so important is that is where almost 75% of household wealth is stored. Here in America a much larger share of household wealth, approximately 71% is stored in financial instruments. The end of the housing bubble in China has the potential to become a huge deflationary "house of cards."
The country is already suffering from massive overcapacity. Much of the recent growth in China after 2008 came from a massive 6.6 trillion dollar stimulus program that expanded credit and poured massive amounts of money into the system. This money encouraged expansion and construction with little regard as to real demand or need.
For years the people of China have had the habit of saving much of what they earn but the low interest rates paid at banks has not rewarded savers. With few investment options much of this money has drifted towards housing and driven housing prices sky high. The economic efficiency of credit is beginning to collapse in China and the unwinding of China’s giant credit spree could be very painful. More in the article below.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/03/china-and-great-credit-trap.html
But China's still buying doing business including with so-called western enemies
http://newworldorderg20.wordpress.com/2014/11/13/new-zealand-starts-delivery-of-53-aircraft-to-china/
http://newworldorderg20.wordpress.com/2014/11/12/china-to-save-hollywood-indie-film-genre/
http://newworldorderg20.wordpress.com/2014/11/11/china-national-nuclear-corporation-cnnc-and-candu-energy-sign-agreement-on-nuclear-fuel-development/
http://newworldorderg20.wordpress.com/2014/11/10/adipecs-largest-oil-gas-conference-features-world-experts-from-russia-u-s-and-china-and-others/
http://newworldorderg20.wordpress.com/2014/11/08/record-number-of-u-k-start-ups-move-to-hong-kong-for-china-opportunities/