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Repulsive Attractant
Indulge me in a bit of a thought experiment.
Let's say there was a fellow here in Palo Alto named Brad. He told me that he had invented the world's perfect tiger repellant. He simply sprayed it on, and voila, no tigers would bother him.
This was intriguing to me, because I had, in turn, created a tiger attractant. My claim was that this invisible spray would attract tigers from several miles away.
The trouble was, my spray just didn't seem to work. Try as I might, no tigers ever appeared. Not even once. Back when I was roaming around Indonesia and Sumatra, tigers would show up all the time. But here in Palo Alto, it just didn't work anymore.
Brad, on the other hand, roamed the streets of my fair city without any fear of tiger attack. His 
spray, it seemed, was 100% effective. My spray didn't work. His did.
But here's the thing..............the truth of the matter is, my spray worked perfectly and his was, in fact, just water. Totally inert. The reason his spray seemed so good at repelling tigers is that, between you and me, there aren't any tigers in Palo Alto. Not even rich ones.
And that's kind of the situation I find myself in. Because I have some trading friends who, over the past several years, have been doing fantastic with their various indicators and systems. If you look at their trading, they basically are just long all the time, so it's not shock that they're making money. And they want me to use these systems too, and it would seem logical to do so, because, well, they're making money. And the tigers are staying away.
But the simple fact of the matter is that these "systems" are merely lucky beneficiaries of a completely distorted market environment. These systems probably provided, in real life, as much marginal advantage as the aforementioned tiger repellent. That is, as long as there aren't any tigers, then you can rest assured you won't be bothered by any big felines.
As for my tiger attractant, no matter how good it is, if the tigers simply aren't around, they aren't available to attract...........that is, until an environment more similar to Jakarta returns. What I'm trying to say is that the siren song of the aforementioned systems has no allure for me. They don't sing to me the way charts do, and frankly, once the tigers show up again, I don't think they stand a chance.
- advertisements -
My dad has a Benelli shotgun he uses for crowd control. Works great. I've never seen a crowd at his place.
Everyone is a master trader in a bull market. Except for me. The guy who says it's all bullshit and has to crash eventually. In the meantime, wrong timing makes me wrong.
Brad was a young lad from Palo Alto
Who smiled as he rode on a tiger
They returned from the ride
With Brad inside
And a smile on the face of the tiger
That tiger spray sounds like it could double as a mathematical black box wax.
Did an original article on Ginna Nuke plant in NY.
Also owned by Exelon, same evil as the Illinois entity.
I do some investigative reporting, reverse engineer their numbers, and figure out that they will need an 82% increase in sales price in order to "keep running". Check it out.
Put a nail in the coffin of nuke (or a 410 series stainless drywall type screw for more zombie nuke holding ability)
http://nukeprofessional.blogspot.com/2014/11/another-nuclear-plant-is-dy...
We will hit Dow 36,000 before we see a 10% decline.
As we saw this week and early today, the dollar will be kept weak. They can do it and so they will. There seems to be a ceiling at 88, above that and action occurs.
So yeah, your friends systems will likely continue to work as long as there is a DOW. We are in Fed-World now and as long as it is possible and keeps the dollar alive it will be done.
The Weimar stock market also hit 36,000, then 36,000,000, then 36,000,000,000, before $#!+ schlagen den fan.
As the Klingons say, "A demonstration can be arranged": Cut a foot-long ruler in half, re-number it 1 to 12, then measure your pecker. Then get your intimate female companion to confirm that, no, your pecker is NOT really 14 inches long.
I'm out to attract is money, and the best way to do that is recognize and trade the trend irrespective of direction. As far as animal analogies, I prefer to use them on trends rather than myself. Trends can either be bullish or bearish, but I endeavor never to be identifiable by either animal. It is easier to remain disinterested in direction when trading on technicals rather than fundamentals. On the other hand, somebody's got to take the other side of my trades, so don't let me discourage you...
Is there no Pussy in Palo Alto ? Tigers are Pussies, no ?
DMW - You're confusing tigers with cougars!
Plenty of cougars in PA - both kinds.
some of the talk about living in the south(I am in Houston metro area), the differences between the north and the south brought an old HS friend to mind. we grew up together in North Jersey, just outside of Manhattan. He has lived 75ish miles south of there down along the Jersey shore for 25+ years and he claims they still consider him an outsider. Jersey is like that...
How about contemplating the most logical attractant... When enough tigers show up - that's when my systems take profits and go to cash or reverse to the short side - until then - profits run...
http://longtermtrendmonitor.elliottwavetechnology.com/
apple up another few billion, when is the I-fone 7 expected?
I've been doing well in the FX market simply by watching weekly patterns. Nothing to it. Whenever I see a previous low or high, I place a limit order at that point. Then I wait around for several days for the market to return to those points. Most of the time, I'm out of the market waiting around for it to reach the next low or high.
When a new high or low is reached, I simply place another limit order at that point, and then wait around until the market returns. I don't anticipate highs or lows but only place limit orders at those points after the market has identified them.
Besides, being out of the market most of the time is very relaxing. I don't stare at the screen all day trying to anticipate, but come back whenever I want to to see if things have changed.
Also, I set preposterous stop loss limits often more the several thousand dollars, which allows the market to get really annoying for awhile, but it gives the market time to breathe and avoids most losses as I wait around for the position to return to the pattern.
Back in the late 90's, we had a Nasdaq options trader on our books. He was making a killing. We analysed his book. Everytime the market came off, he would write puts for all the buyers. He got uppity, demanded 80% etc., we told him to take a leap, so he left, for someone willing to give him 80%. Always wondered what burger joint that clown was flipping burgers in.
If we live long enough, Tim.
A good analogy.
I think this is also how the TSA has prevented any repeats of 9/11
You won't have ANY major 'terrorism' attacks until TPTB 'need' one......
Yeah they should sell anti- terrorism spray.
well that was simple, the Contemptuous Invasive Assholes just didnt plan the next one in quite the same way.
ahem...stay...strong...
"Read me a bedtime story, would you?"
Nick Nolte and Eddie Murphy in Beverly Hills Cop....
48 Hours?
The tigers of wrath are wiser than the horses of instruction.
William Blake
If there are no tigers , then you are left with a lot of horses' asses.
So your friend in Palo Alto tells you to buy Apple stock. Tells you his system works every time. He looks at the company and explains that they are buying back millions of shares daily. They are selling 40 mil phones a quarter. People will wait in line to buy one. They are made at low cost in China. Millions have to have the newest model every time one comes out. They have billions in the bank. He says that a company could not be more successful no matter how hard they tried. His system works for valid reasons.
From your comment that "they are buying back millions of shares daily" indicates you are not getting what the writer is trying to say. The reason they were buying back millions of shares was QE money was available to them at nearly 0% interest. QE has ended and so too will the buy backs which is the primary reason the market is up.
Yes, people do wait in line for the newest iphone but that will change when everyone has one. The reason- it is no longer a status symbol. In my opinion Apple is nearing that stage. When your grandma wants an iphone you know the coolness is over.
As far as the phone being made in low cost China there is an awakening happening as to what that means. Suicide nets around a manufacturers facility will soon be main stream information and either the price of labor will increase or the company will be viewed negatively. Who wants to hold a phone that was the reason for someone's suicide.
And finally those billions in an offshore account put there using creative accounting will soon be diminished. The number of articles lately popping up seem to point to the fact that TPTB know they have to right the ship or have it righted for them.
Things are changing. I feel the gentle winds are building and a perfect storm is coming and I think that is what this writer is trying to say.
Red sky at night, sailor's delight. Red sky at morning, sailor's take warning. The morning markets are red.
I just read and replied to your comment on a $60 Huawei phone. Does that mean I'm not cool?
The problem with your "analysis" is glaring: even old people use cellphones. It's not a matter of want, it's "Here is what you can get when you sign a contract. Here are your choices."
Apple has stores that keep the 10 year old to 50 year olds oohing and ahhing.....and no matter what anyone does has become seemingly the only way to go for digital music. (I don't get it,I use Amazon.) And it has at it's advantage the ridiculous way we buy cellphones in the US, cellphone contracts. You buy it, you use it, it's pretty fucking cool and easy and seems be issue free, the next one is the same but a little different, better on some ways not worse then the last for sure. That's what you need to nail to keep followers loyal. It's a simple equation.
I'm 40. I can't think of another product quite like this that the brand itself demanded it's own store fronts, and sold nothing else but it's own products. Yes I can, Starbucks.
Dominance is dominance. Neither of these names will be going anywhere for a long ass time. Long, long ass time.
The tigers are always around no matter where you are, they just happen to be occupied feeding on free FED money.
The money will run out.
Being raised in the rural south, this one resonates for me:
One day my Dad said,
Did you know that cows hide in trees?
No they don't!
Sure they do! Have you ever seen a cow in a tree?
No, sir.
See how good they hide?
LOL. And here I thought their natural camouflage is what hid them so well while in the trees.
The absence of something doesn't mean it was ever there to begin with or should be there and isn't.
>On a side note, while we don't live in the deep south, we do live in southwestern VA near the NC border. And I lived in the Northern VA/Southern MD area for 14 years prior to our move to the mountain.
To be honest, the more I live in the south the more I realize I have been missing out all my life. The people here for the most part are much more gracious and easy going than my northern Yankee brothers and sisters. Of course there are exceptions above and below the Mason-Dixon line. But when it is all averaged out I would rather live south of the line.
Shhhhh! Stop advertising. The more transplants we get down here, the less desirable it becomes for the natives.
The old saw about the difference between a Yankee and a damned Yankee is true to a large degree - a damn Yankee won't go home.
Well.....I'll be damned. :-)
Well played, Sir!
Cog-D,
it makes me happy to see that you & the Mrs. are both acclimated to the culture and have been accepted by the locals. i kinda figured they would; Cog-D & Mrs. Cog are good-people. most think there's a pervasive pressure to start attending every sunday; tain't true. sure, they'd (and i'd) love to see as many as are willing accept the Lord as savior, but so long as you're not hostile or antagonistic about faith, the people will respect your indifference. in dixie, the 3 most important considerations for polity, comity and harmony are manners, manners & manners. and that's often difficult for yankees to understand. for my part (and for the time being), i sorta like the brusk/no-nonsense stuff. but it's been an intriguing study of humanity being up here in your backyard (RI is just over the bay)...in dixie, we really do love our neighbor and make it a priority to put the interests of others before our own (not always great for the bottom-line, but vital to happy communities); up here, they eye you with suspicion -- like you're working an angle or something -- if you're nice for no reason other than brotherly love.
it's weird, though...when first i arrived and would do things like opening doors for strangers and whatnot, they'd look at me like i was a patient escaped from a mental ward. and now, well, someone did it for me the other day -- and at the package store no less!
who knows, maybe some of my rebel cousins are out and about opening doors and saying 'yes mam' all over town...kindness and love of thy neighbor are like a very good disease -- they spread like a virus once they're exposed in public.
p.s. let me know if you'd like a recipe for biscuits and gravy.....mmmmmmmmmm!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MLkG7jxW6YM
janus
Duplicate
That's the last time I hold the door open for a malfunctioning server.
".....and at the package store no less!"
You must be telling the truth because only the local Yankees from that area of New England call a 'liquor' store a 'package' store.
Regarding saying 'Yes ma'am', when I first moved to Northern VA I was flabbergasted by this custom of addressing any female of voting/marrying age in this manner. But like a duck in water I quickly took to the custom and added to my unconscious responses.It now rolls off the tongue without thinking.
While up in PA some months back I was of course using the term wherever I went. People were giving me strange looks because even though I did not have a southern drawl/accent, I was acting like those weird southerners.
And I have always opened doors for others even when I was living in New England. As a child of the 50's and 60's in RI it was the norm to do so for women and the occasional man as a show of respect. Nowadays people in the north look at you real weird if you show any sort of compassion or concern. I have seen men move their hand to their wallet and women clutch their hand bags closer when I opened the door for them up north.
Down here it is still accepted and welcomed regardless of whether the person is male or female.
Is it North and South? Or just plain upbringing?
I come from Iowa. (Note the "FROM" - I tell folks that Iowa is a GREAT place to be FROM... which is why you find former Iowans everywhere but there.)
I grew up saying "yes ma'am" or "No Ma'am", please, thank you, excuse me... etc. My folks are/were lower middle class but bent the knee to no one. I now live South of, or just near to, the Mason-Dixon line, and I get funny looks for holding doors for folks and for nodding (a way of saying "howdy") to people I don't know and who don't know me. You don't have to be a servant or slave to show respect to others, and you don't have to be a "Somebody" to treat folks like they are worms. All that just shows that you're a decent person or a puke who's not worth your time.
Hey Cog, good to hear from you!
The furthest north I've ever lived was Waldorf MD, so I'm no expert. Back then, my son was racing BMX and we all went to a "national" in CT.
Upon returning, a co-worker asked me about the trip. I said it was OK, but the people seemed rude there. He laughed and replied, "The only reason you think people in CT are rude is because you've never been to Maine."
He, being from Maine, probably knew what he was talking about.
But yeah, I think about those cows whenever I hear some pol telling us of imminent terror that we must be prepared for- especially the "homegrown" variety. Like the cows, you'd be hard-pressed to actually find one.
howdy there, brother Ace...i don't think i speak for janus only when welcoming you back; we missed you.
don't get the wrong idea or anything, but janus has been thinking alot about you lately. not long ago, you posted something late at night that stung me and stayed with me for a while afterward...no joke, i literally turned off the computer and stared at the ceiling for two hours. without referencing anything specific in your post, i want to tell you a little story about my first best friend.
here's the thing, i'd spoken to him for the first time in some twenty years on the very same day of your comment. you familiar with the ole saw, 'picking up on the last sentence you left off..'? it was that and so much more. i mean, twenty years and each with experiences that are as far removed from the other's as possible -- janus a father, responsible american...blah-blah-blah, he a musician and artist living in brooklyn, but all that notwithstanding, we hadn't changed in one fundamental way --we just have this natural understanding of, and disposition to, one another. it's called friendship; it's rare in this world; and one should do all that is in one's power to preserve those that are authentic.
don't get me wrong, i at certain times grew nervous that the joy generated in both of us could at any moment dissapate. at one point he asked if janus were aware of the climate parade over which they made so much hay in new york city; naturally, i tensed up, thinking, 'oh shit, what if my boy's gone and become a goddam do-gooder?!? i can't be disingenuous with him...i can't just sit here and condone this shit! this may be it for janus and his initial amigo...alas.' and my feelings were ready to fold-in when he said that he and his friends had made a sign for it; a big one; six feet high, nine across. tears literally welling in my eyes as he matter-of-factly described for me the inscription. in big, bold red letters on a background of white it read, "NO FAT CHICS!!!". you familiar with that ole saw, 'tears of sorrow turn to laughter...'. it was that and so much more.
and so, i've decided to reward myself for the completion of this book with a visit to bed-sty and some long overdue catching up with this dude i haven't seen in too long a time. {p.s. all you boys with long side-burn curls in williamsberg, i ain't commin to make trouble and i'd appreciate it if'n you didn't make any for me...peace.}
but there's another part of this story more important than the prologue to it. we moved to a town right-outside nashville when i was two. moving day is my first discernible memory; insofar as changing homes is somewhat traumatic in your formative years...but i don't mean traumatic in a negative sense; only in the sense of trauma's potential to sharpen one's attention for the things and events that attend it. it was on that day i met my first friend. back in those days, all the neighbors would come to meet and greet new arrivals. we had communities back then. my neighbor across the street, miss grace, would always give me candy and hug me just for stopping by. my neighbor down the way, joe fitzpatrick, was my barber and an all-around good man. my next door neighbors, the hales, were working class living in a middle class neighborhood...they always had the motorcycles, lawn darts, dodgeball games, pick-up football and whatnot astir over there...and then down the street, on aloha ct., lived my friend (an only child) and his parents.
we literally spent almost every day together for some nine years. the trouble we made and times we had...it could fill tomes. this was the early eighties, the last generation of kids who were allowed to be such. we NEVER stayed inside. in fact, our mothers would boot us out and force us to entertain ourselves till supper-time. we had our bikes and bb guns. we had nothing to fear except stray dogs and older bullies.
my buddy's mother was very pretty and his father was a buff hunter of all creatures great & small; they were from down pulaski-ways and basically pure scot. he was an executive at this pretty big food products company (i won't mention the name), drove a blue stingray corvette, watched chuck norris & stallone & swartzeneger movies obsessively (they were the first on the block to have a VCR...actually, it was beta -- remember the remote controls with the cords?), and was positively addicted to pumping iron.
now, in that our parents sought that we may in addition to tomfoolery be improved with some measure of culture, my friend and i were compelled to take art lessons from a lady of some small renown in brentwood -- right down the road. this dear lady, mrs. hornbuckle, did indeed ignite in us (me, my buddy and my younger brother) a passionate fire for Art. she not only taught proper technique and exposed us to various modes of expression, but encouraged us to engage with our art; to be active in its articulation; to with it forge a physical dialectic. a very wise woman indeed.
here i'll share with you something my buddy's done of late (it's quite impressive if you understand all that's involved here):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bkwx-K2C_34
okay, so, i bring up the art lessons for another reason. it was on the occasion of one of these that my buddy's life would change forever and our friendship would fade from infrequent contact all the way to twenty years of silence.
in the years leading up to this art lesson, my friend's father's mental state started to markedly deteriorate. when all the gossip finally emerged, it was revealed that he'd been juicing, doing blow, beating the shit out of his mother, and, strangest of all, teaming up with this band of neer-do-wells to conduct these odd heists. they literally had houses full of cash and loot; and were doing it for the thrill alone.
anyway, so, mrs. hornbuckle has to go and take an emergency call interrupting our art lesson. she then returns to the lesson and escorts my friend up into her home's living quarters, and without explanation tells my brother and i to be good and wait for our parents to arrive. something was strange. something was off. the vibe of peculiarity hung heavy in the air. and so we sat there in silence (which is for janus rare), awaiting our parents' arrival. stranger still, my father came with my mother (something he'd never normally do). we went to shoney's for supper that night. mom & dad had some news to break.
apparently, my buddy's father had shot himself in the temple, sitting behind the wheel of that blue stingray. no note. no warning. no sense to be made of it whatsoever. just a hollow tragedy all the way round. a void of pain and confusion for my buddy.
his mother and he moved shortly thereafter. i suppose the shame of it all was more than she could bear...or maybe she needed to cement the change with other changes. whatever the case, she never remarried and things were never great for the two of them.
it's one of those things in life that can't be reconciled to any rational appreciation for human behavior. and though the temptation is always to impute meaning to meaningless acts, i think my friend figured out that there often isn't any...and that's probably a good thing. and after considering that phone call with my friend and reading your post, i'd have to say that you both understand this queer and inscrutable reality of the human condition better than others ever will.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pPuFDaPC5XM
love,
janus
Nice Janus, thanks
Ace? Ace, is that you? I also lived in Waldorf for a time. Too funny.
I was born and raised in RI and spent much of my adult life in CT. And we always felt the people from Maine were rude and damn hard to understand.
"Ya can't get tha from hera." "Ya ain't from around hera, ah ya."
Where we stand, think and perceive depends upon where we sit....and previously sat.
People from Maine are not rude. They are blunt but that is far from rude. Going south to MA or CT they become rude and that primarily applies to population centers (which can be said about Portland, ME but you do not go south in ME, you go down east). The same can be said about VT and Burlington or NH and Concord/Nashua/Manchester.
66 years in CT. Never noticed the residents of the state to be rude, just certain social groups. Now in China, where eveybody is quite polite, even the ones staring at me like my hair is on fire.
'Rude' is a relative term. While I lived in CT and RI I didn't think most people there were rude. It was only when I moved to VA did I realize people up north were not as overtly polite to each other, particularly strangers, as they are in the south.
If I were visiting the south and still living in the north I might describe the southerners as 'overly polite'.
When you live in an 'overtly polite' society anyone who is not overtly polite is being rude.
When Northerners go into the South, they often the slap-on-the-back-friendliness hospitality as strangers invading their private space.
From KY and the wife from WV, when we vacationed in CT we were shocked at the rudeness of the locals. Adults would actually try to cut in front of you in a line. Amazing. One night ended with my wife asking another woman "What did you say, bitch?" with her hands balled up into fists. My wife is really kind and slow to anger but it just had gotten to her. We still laugh about that moment because it's so out of character for her. We also occasionally bring up the question of how long it would take someone acting the way those peeps acted to get their ass kicked in WV by some cowboy boot wearing redneck. Not long.
Could be, you never know. I worked for Beretta in Accokeek from '88 to '91.
I am not well-traveled as many here are, but I still have my asshole, errr opinion.
Back in High School, there were these twin brothers, Paul and Pete. Paul was a teacher's pet- salutatorian and all that. Pete was considered a fuck-up and never did well in class. He preferred practical jokes and clowning around to serious study.
You know how we all got to leave a senior quote in the yearbook, right? Paul wrote something like Study as if... You know the one.
Pete, the clown, stunned me with his words;
How much the dunce who's set to roam,
Excels the dunce who's kept at home?
Not surprisingly, I liked Pete better than Paul, but I never knew until I read that quote that my friend Pete had a serious side.
Sometimes, you never know.
You predate my stay in Waldorf by a decade. But I know/knew the Beretta place well.
And yes, sometime you never know.
I am honored to have traveled the same space as you. One day, our transcience will manifest itself. I'm pretty certain that you know what I mean.
In short it means death to empire, but there's a shitload of stories which have play out before this reaches a conclusion.
We'll be lucky to make it into the footnotes, and that's OK by me.