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Repulsive Attractant
Indulge me in a bit of a thought experiment.
Let's say there was a fellow here in Palo Alto named Brad. He told me that he had invented the world's perfect tiger repellant. He simply sprayed it on, and voila, no tigers would bother him.
This was intriguing to me, because I had, in turn, created a tiger attractant. My claim was that this invisible spray would attract tigers from several miles away.
The trouble was, my spray just didn't seem to work. Try as I might, no tigers ever appeared. Not even once. Back when I was roaming around Indonesia and Sumatra, tigers would show up all the time. But here in Palo Alto, it just didn't work anymore.
Brad, on the other hand, roamed the streets of my fair city without any fear of tiger attack. His 
spray, it seemed, was 100% effective. My spray didn't work. His did.
But here's the thing..............the truth of the matter is, my spray worked perfectly and his was, in fact, just water. Totally inert. The reason his spray seemed so good at repelling tigers is that, between you and me, there aren't any tigers in Palo Alto. Not even rich ones.
And that's kind of the situation I find myself in. Because I have some trading friends who, over the past several years, have been doing fantastic with their various indicators and systems. If you look at their trading, they basically are just long all the time, so it's not shock that they're making money. And they want me to use these systems too, and it would seem logical to do so, because, well, they're making money. And the tigers are staying away.
But the simple fact of the matter is that these "systems" are merely lucky beneficiaries of a completely distorted market environment. These systems probably provided, in real life, as much marginal advantage as the aforementioned tiger repellent. That is, as long as there aren't any tigers, then you can rest assured you won't be bothered by any big felines.
As for my tiger attractant, no matter how good it is, if the tigers simply aren't around, they aren't available to attract...........that is, until an environment more similar to Jakarta returns. What I'm trying to say is that the siren song of the aforementioned systems has no allure for me. They don't sing to me the way charts do, and frankly, once the tigers show up again, I don't think they stand a chance.
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I like your analogy Mr. Knight. Any time a lesson can be taught by a quick story, it is well worth the time to share. Contrary to what many may think from reading the comment threads on ZH, there are gobs of readers here who are not financially savvy and still benefit greatly from messages like this. The system is unsustainable in its present form. It will only work until it doesn't. For most, this doesn't end well.
*deep bow*
I feel almost rebutted, Mrs. C, but still your comment summarized is, "Look out below."
Same as it ever was.
Nothing actionable. But I guess that would be telling,... and waiting to be told.
Nothing actionable... hmmmm
Cog maintains the reason he doesn't have an even wider readership is because he doesn't seek to offer answers, but only better questions. People want answers damnit. When I first read his articles on ZH, I emailed him and told him his articles were great, but WTF was I supposed to do?
Maybe the answer for each person is a bit different. That which helps me sleep at night might keep you up with nightmares and visaversa. Spoon feeding answers to others only absolves them of the responsibility of looking for answers that are right for them. It is getting people to want to ask better questions that seems to be the challenge. Just my take...
*grin* Well spoken. */grin*
<scr>shot so this happened, and I can read this prose again.
I guess I meant to brush against your point by saying, "...and waiting to be told."
Totes agree, and, "he doesn't seek to offer answers, but only better questions."...+1000.
"That's good readin', that is, ...good readin' an good thinkin'."
edit: btw, was not talking about Cog, HH, GW, etc. and I guess when I said "here" I meant "here and everywhere else." A lot of cheese food product out there right now. urgh.
Put another way, Don't mistake brains for a bull market.
The problem is this bull market
is a market of bull
That's true. This bull has paper horns.
It's just me, probably, but so many of the financial articles here lately seem like just a brain fart wound out to a few paragraphs.
With just the conclusion, "So that was my brain fart."
I agree, but what does anyone say when we are way out in no man's land where none have been before? All we can do is fart, and pray it's all gas not not shit this time.
I believe this same conclusion was reached a very long time ago.
Is an event correlative or causative?
http://www.latimes.com/business/hiltzik/la-fi-mh-see-correlation-is-not-...
http://jfmueller.faculty.noctrl.edu/100/correlation_or_causation.htm
If you are a financial advisor always, always go with the crowd. If the crowd is right you look good. If the crowd is suddenly wrong then you can claim nobody anticipated such a thing happening and that the portfolio didn't fare any worse than the others. Since 99% of financial advisors do just this why use a financial advisor at all?
Well, they also know the mysteries of the laddered bond portfolio.
And that's about it.
If my financial advisor were, say, a really well connected type like, Our Man from Omaha, assured of winning whether his actions prove right or wrong, I would go with him.
i would have like some of that mad money, but knowing what i know has been some kind of punishment. no candy if you don't play our game.
Brad could make a killing in Paris right now:
http://www.cnn.com/2014/11/13/world/europe/france-tiger/
I suggest shifting to another animal....
Perhaps cats!
Then label your product Pussy Attractant and watch the orders roll in!
Mr. Knight, please stop stealing post ideas from old Simpson's episodes.
That said, the episode where little 'Timmy' has fallen down a well has some excellent social commentary.
Homer: That little Timmy is a real hero.
Lisa: What makes him a hero dad?
Homer: Well he fell down the well and ... can't get out.
Lisa: How does that make him a hero?
Homer: Well, it's more than you did!
Cougar attractant would have brought hoards down from Marin.