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5 Things To Ponder: Market Stew
Submitted by Lance Roberts of STA Wealth Management,
The markets have been pushing new all-time highs this past week as earnings season begins to wind down. Starting next week, much of the focus will shift back to the economy and holiday retail sales. Expectations are for a robust season but the early arrival of winter could have a more negative effect on the economy than anticipated should current weather patterns persist.
As I discussed earlier this week:
"Unfortunately, economic predictions may once again be set up for disappointment as another wave of cold air is set to smash temperature records across the country the winter. As reported by Reuters this past weekend:
"The coldest air of the season is set to reach into some 42 states this week as an Arctic blast drops temperatures from the Canadian border down to the Gulf of Mexico. Some 200 million people are expected to be affected by the cold, with only Florida, Hawaii, and the Southwest being spared.
Monday also marks the start of two weeks of subfreezing temperatures in the Midwest, including Illinois and Missouri. The weather shift can be blamed on what forecasters call a polar vortex reaching into the United States from the north."
This weekend's reading list is a hodge-podge of articles that cover more of the macro issues that may weigh on the economy and the markets. While the majority of analysts and economists are currently very ebullient on near term prospects, it is always important to remember Bob Farrell's Rule #9:
"When all the experts and forecasts agree – something else is going to happen."
Let's get to our reading:
1) Zero Rates, Resource Misallocation & Shale Oil by Edward Harrison via Credit Writedowns2)
"The nexus of zero rates, resource misallocation, and risk on has favoured shale oil. But the drop in oil prices will call many of these projects into question precipitating a high yield energy funding crisis and a panic dash for the exits. There will be carnage and the question will be whether this carnage causes contagion into other markets.
What we should be concerned about here is that, just as with subprime mortgages, this is not a particularly big market but one with interconnections to others. The leveraged loan and high yield market could be affected and other riskier US debt markets like student loans or auto ABS could be affected by sentiment. Right now, it is still early days. So the oil price might even recover. But the abundant liquidity of zero rates, resource misallocation and shale oil simply do not mix."
Read Also: Houston, We Might Have A Fracking Problem
Read Also: Detailed US Shale Oil Cost Curve via ZeroHedge
2) The Stock Market Is 100% Overvalued by ChrisMartenson via ChrisMarenson.com
Read Also: Do The Lessons Of History No Longer Apply? by John Hussman via Hussman Funds
Read Also: Investors Have Never Been So Bullish
3) Stock Returns After A Period Of Above Average Performance via A Wealth Of Common Sense
"While anything is always possible, there are some patterns in these numbers that investors can use to increase their probability for success, which is the best anyone can hope for. For any long-term investor in the stock market, there are two very basic ways to improve your returns:
(1) Buy low after there’s been a market crash.(2) Increase your holding period."
4) Paul Tudor Jones On The 200-Day Moving Average by Meb Faber via Meb Faber Research
"The whole trick in investing is: “How do I keep from losing everything? You don’t need to go to business school; you’ve only got to remember two things.
1) You always want to be with whatever the predomianat trend is.
2) 5:1 (risk /reward). Five to one means I’m risking one dollar to make five. What five to one does is allow you to have a hit ratio of 20%. I can actually be a complete imbecile. I can be wrong 80% of the time, and I’m still not going to lose.
One principle for sure would be to get out of anything that falls below the 200-day moving average."
Read Also: Don't Make Kaelin Clay's Mistake by Mark Hulbert via MarketWatch
5) QE Isn't Dying, It's Morphing by Nomi Prins via NomiPrins.com
"A funny thing happened on the way to the ‘end’ of the multi-trillion dollar bond buying program known as QE - the Fed chronicles. Aside from the shift to a globalization of QE via the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan (BOJ) as I wrote about earlier, what lingers in the air of 'post-taper' time is an absence of absence. For QE is not over. Instead, in the United States, the process has simply morphed from being predominantly executed by the Federal Reserve (Fed) to being executed by its major private bank members.
During the third quarter, Wells Fargo and Bank of America matched Fed purchases of US Treasuries, keeping the total amount of US Treasuries in QE land neutral. With such orchestration to keep rates down and the prices of US Treasury securities up, all the talk about whether the labor force is strengthening or inflation exists or not is mere show"
One of the funny things about the stock market is that every time one person buys, another sells, and both think they are astute." - William Feather
Have a great weekend.
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Yeah, because cold temperatures prevent people from shopping online, and they have no vehicles with a heater, and the stores aren't heated, and the roads aren't plowed and salted.
The economy sucks, but it will perpetually be blamed on weather, and people not working hard enough.
No more fire sales?
I know there has been on paper gold and paper silver certificates...
The **Perfect PRICELESS set-up** to blame the Weather when the sales drop occurs on Black Friday!
absolutely!
i would DEARLY love to see some current internal emails from the big boxes
"where is everybody?"
When did they make up this polar vortex bullshit? Probably around the same time they came up with ISIS and the Korasan group... be scared kids! Get out and vote! I'm sure that will help!
Old Man HAARP is a huffin' and a puffin'.
He be da Boogie Man, he be huffin' sho' nuff. Lawdie Lawd!
sent from my iPhone
We used to call them cold fronts back in the day
That sale ended yesterday. But if you want some cheap stawks, wait until right before Christmas.
Everything's OK. Like the Democrats, it's all ISILISALSquishedia's, Ebola and the Republican's faults. Otherwise everything is coming up roses. Oh, and if you believe in God, read a bible, have a gun and don't drink white whine and eat quiches, then you're a terrorist of the first order and in accordance with the "New Constitution" the freedom loving, diversity, understanding, loving, caring and inclusive folks will send you off to a nice summer camp for the winter of your discontent.
"...don't drink white whine and eat quiches,"
Bwa ha ha ha ha: white whine...
:)
Would someone please turn up the Global Warming ? Thank you.
Al Gore has plenty of hot air for you
Sorry to thread jack...this just in. Look at this photo of the downed airliner....Yikes. Is this fake??? Satellite image Flight MH-17 shot down..? From what I understand Obama just got handed this photo at the G20 meeting...ooops.
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=bc3_1415985472
This happened eons ago. Here in America people are now starting to map out their annual holiday shopping bonanzas.
Where to shop, when to line up and what deals to get. (not necessarily in this order)
This is America and that's all that matters.
That's exceptional
yawn... what time does Dancing with the Kardashian Whores come on tonight? i'm bored
Where to get a Brazilian butt lift with nada down and an 8 year loan.
Wasn't the Australian PM just recently jawboning Vlad to 'fess up' on MH-17?
Here it was on the news.
This means only one thing:
The West wanted to see that picture so peace with Russia can come back.
America will look for yet another enemy.
Not bad thinking. I'm awarding you a golden waffle for that.
Great link. We need to send this photo viral. Not seen any of the Cia sponsored western media run it. Should be front page and headline. Putin's been telling the truth and the West and NATO caught lying again. Game, set and match to Putin!
Global freezing!
Winter is going to destroy EVERYTHING!
Ehem...maybe you should look at the worldmap before you say that.
Here in Europe, we're having the hottest november since... Ever.
So while you freeze...
We'll enjoy it.
God does seem to move in not so mysterious ways so it seems :)
Ever is a long time. If you look it up you'll find out that you had a longer growing season and higher annual temperature in around 900AD than you are having this year. A long growing season is very beneficial, of course.
In the Rocky Mountains... CLOUDY
In the Cloudy Mountains... ROCKY
Don't fly your airplane into those clouds!
You beat me to it. As a former enthusiastic private pilot; i was remembering the famous joke about the worst cloud type of all; 'Cumulus Piedras" / the cloud with a rock in it.
Tyler. What's going on with the page format? I barely see the thinning strip of article headlines in the central column as the ads seem to be increasing in size. Similar to Kim's ass. We realise you need to pay the bills, but come on......
Firefox browser - Ghostery, no script, Adblock edge extensions= No more ads.
You're not part of the target Zero Hedge demographic, are you?
Me neither.
Me neither.
I keep looking for porn and wind up here or getting photos of Kim Kardahsin's ass on Infowars.
And I don't get any ads.
They don't like me.
sniff
What's with that?
That woman is just fat! Where have all the tight ass chicks gone to?
And those tits man! They look like grandma's tits!
She was once a hot girl, before hedonic adjustments.
Russian beauty ads on their way!
I'm using an iPad.
Firefox doesn't work on i-thingies? Works on my Galaxy.
Maybe think outside the gilded box a little.
As a coaster, door stop or frizbee?
Survival rations
"Let them eat iPads"
-N Pelousy
Just don't eat herPads.
Well Bob maybe try this link. Not sure if it will work but also has a video. Maybe worth a shot.
http://www.virtualfirefox.com/Firefox-Browser-for-ipad
good luck with adblock and ghostery for firefox on a tablet or mobile phone (sigh)
Growing and growing, gaining in size, reach and power with every passing moment, engulfing and swallowing entire web pages like the mutant love-child of Katamari Damacy and "the Judge" from Pink Floyd's "The Wall," it's the rampaging Ass of Kardashian!
Russell Brand has some thoughts on that.
You need to learn how to use your computer; it's willing to do what you tell it to; but you have to make a little effort. As the commenter below says; change to Firefox as your browser; especially if you're using, (shudder0 a microsoft product; then find the firefox add-ons section under tools/ preferences, and enable ad-block 2; with extras. then there are no Ads. on the page.
your advice is well-meant but it does not work on tablets and mobile phones.
My local purveyor of beer actually was helped by the storm. We have zero snow on the ground in the morning yesterday and then had a blast of 15 inches in the snowbelt here off Lake Erie. I am sure this little sliver of land and snow was enough to drop national GDP points quite a bit though.
wow that sucks for mid November, have you considered moving?
In the South we do not have to shovel heat.
Yep, us veterans of "weather events" know to stock up before the hoarders get to the stores (cf. Ferguson, MO)
Although it isn't quite "cash for clunkers". It is more like moving cash flow earlier, always a good thing for the pressured "small businesses".
- Ned
I like my guilded box. It's well trimmed, silky, and really, really comfortable.
Oh boy something to listen to while I take my afternoon nap. I can't wait but first I'll post one of Q99X2's silly comments about the cold. It will get worse over the next 5 years. In 10 years it will stop snowing during the summer months. In 20 years there will be massive famines and the northern half of the US will not thaw out at anytime for the next 80 years. The Maunder minimum is upon us. But as bad as this may seem, your government knows it and they are preparing; you are probably not on the list to survive.
That's right! Think of it this way. As with all governmental prognostications, it is ass backwards. They're telling us that it's getting hotter than all hell when in fact we're gonna be freezing our asses off.
But not to worry. It's all self-correcting, for the Progressives will all try to live without clothing and shelter due to the heat and freeze to death.
And blame it on the Republicans.
Shaking leg like trying to get a big glob of dogshit off my foot
Q99x2:
My sure thing bet, here in the Commonwealth, is that it will get worse over the next 3..5 months.
Beyond that, well, the Old Farmer's Almanac has had the same predictive power as the NWS 72 hour forecast.
AGWarmists enthrallers need not reply.
- Ned
"Starting next week, much of the focus will shift back to the economy and holiday retail sales. Expectations are for a robust season but the early arrival of winter could have a more negative effect on the economy than anticipated should current weather patterns persist."
"robust"?
"experts" will be wrong ... again
Who
The
Fuck
Ever
Said
The
Upcoming
Shopping
Season
Would
Be
Robust?
....none of those, more for taking selfies of my massive ass...
Who can expect that winter will come?
oh wait....
King Storm , King Desert and King Lightning .
See the Kings in winter .
Things are actually looking up . See
https://www.academia.edu/9204956/Slingshot_Atmospheric_Rivers
https://www.academia.edu/9304658/Optimal_Deserts
https://www.academia.edu/9306394/Optimal_Lightning_
Expected. Expected. Expected.
I like this word "Expected."
It reveals plans of those who we can't (yet) see.
- Ned
The world is cooling off very fast: http://drsircus.com/world-news/cooling-fast
The Polor Vortex (aka winter) is now the new catch all bullshit excuse for the big box stores shitting the bed.
However, one that may actually have an impact is the undeclared longshore strike on the USWC, rail back up on the Northern Tier due Uncle Warren hauling oil for top dollar and the possibility of real strike in week ahead for longshore.
Vessels are at anchor up and down the West Coast with last lap delivery of cargo from FE. US farmers and growers are getting killed right now as they can't export.
Supply chains up and down all the way back to FE are being disrupted and won't even out until Q1 2015 even if this stops tomorrow.
Global Cooling is such a bitch. While the greenies fantasise about warming the reality observed on the thermometer is that its getting colder. The InterTropical Convergence Zone has move south due to lower heating over the azores and thus the cold air moves south. What a bitch nature can be in not conforming to the Climate change fantasists warming hypothesis. Shame CO2 doesnt cause warming cause then we could change this natural cycle by building more coal fired power stations. Shame but they wont heat the globe. If you want to understand these forces of nature read Professor Bob Carter.
You have some nice technical sounding nothing climate theories. Also nice to see you promoting a paid climate change denying shill as actually knowing anything he isn't paid to know or to deny. Party-on flat earther!
Call Stilletto "Flat Earther" if you wish, but Al Gore and his followers lusting for a carbon tax mostly have it wrong. Our sun has far more influence over global climate than any human endeavors. If you'd like to get up to speed a good place to start is here:
http://www.suspicious0bservers.org/
Sure, lets believe an attorney/financial worker who has a curiosity about astro-physics. I am sure he knows more than the scientists world-wide trained in climate science. This isn't political. I didn't vote for Gore or want a carbon tax either, but that doesn't change the basic science. We are massively contributing to a blanket of C02 and other warming gasses around the Earth. That traps more heat into the system. More heat equates to more energy to do more things on a larger scale. Like melt icepacks, make storms bigger etc.
Oh trust me .... current weather patterns WILL persist.