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Dollar Dump Sparks Safety Scramble For Bonds & Bullion
Stocks were somewhat of a sideshow to the moves in Bonds, commodities, and FX today. Trannies (Airlines) and Nasdaq (AAPL) led on the week with Small Caps the laggard and Dow/S&P not much better. A 6-7bps plunge in yields from around 10am ET today left Treasury yields only 0-2bps higher on the week. The USD dumped at around the same time, cracking back to unchanged on the week as USDJPY failed at 117. While oil prices lifted modestly today, WTI Crude fell 3.2% this week - 7th week in a row - longest losing streak since 1986 (the last time US oil production was above 9 mm bbl/d). Silver screamed over 7% off its intraday lows today (+4.1% on the day - the best day in 5 months) and gold surged 2.4% on the day (4.1% off the lows) for its 2nd best day in 5 months. VIX (higher on the week), HY credit, and TSYs all diverged notably on the week from equity 'strength' but today's moves were seemingly driven by Swiss Gold Initiative rumors. It's a Friday so 330ET saw the standard ramp to grab the S&P green and record close (+0.02%)
The S&P 500 closed the day green... so get out there and spend all that extra cash you have from lower gas prices...
A low volume narrow range day in the S&P...closing perfectly at VWAP
On the day Nasdaq led (AAPL) and Trannies lagged (as oil picked up) along with Small Caps as the late day ramp to green for S&P could not hold...
But on the week Trannies and Nasdaq led and Small Caps lagged unable to be rescued green on the week...
On the week, Discretionary and Tech led as Utes and Energy lagged with Financials red
As Financials for the 3rd time roll over and catch down to credit...
VIX closed the week higher - despite stocks strength...notably divergent
HY credit closed the week wider... notably divergent
And TSY yields decoupled from stocks once they came back from vacation Tuesday...
Treaury yields surged and purged today with a dramatic rally starting around 10am
At around the same time the USD also dumped against all the majors (after USDJPY tried and failed to gain 117.000)
The USD weakness sparked the momentum in commodities but oil closed the week in the red still and copper limped back to unchanged...
But the big moves were in Gold and Silver... on heavy volume
Charts: Bloomberg
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Oh boy, $28, quite the earthquake....
(on heavy volume) !!!
DX down 0.3%
Gold and oil each up approx. 2.4%
something else going on here.
Could be something has leaked about the G20 meeting this weekend in Brisbane...
I know. I know. But this move just felt different to me.
Long Dong Silver, bitches
And this is why I've been saying stack that phyzz silver at these killer prices. Not that I don't think they can't smash it down lower...I'm sure they will. A rise like today is nearly as manipulated as the beat downs we've been seeing for the last few years. They do it both directions.
But why silver is such a great bargain now is because of the GSR (or SGR) which was right at 75:1 when the blast off occurred today. That's tremendously high which means silver is definitely the best value for the FRN.
And if you look at how much each of the paper PM's rose today, as always silver out-paced gold on the upswing 4% gain to 2.4% gain and the GSR/SGR ratio dropped from 75:1 to 73:1. A 2 ounce drop.
When this whole paper game has finally collapsed we're going to see days that might drop the ratio by 20 ounces. Buy silver now not just because it's so much cheaper but because the ratio is so high.
When that ratio drops one day down in the 30's and 20's or even lower then trade this super cheap silver in for some even cheaper gold (ratio-wise).
75 ounces today plus say $2.50 premium on Buffaloes is $1404. At 35:1 silver could be back near 50 again and gold at 1750. You could then trade probably 38 ounces of silver that cost you 685 bucks today for an ounce of gold that cost probably 1800 bucks at that ratio.
That's a sweet deal. Stack up some Buffaloes now and get ready for that sweet GSR trade in the future.
It's coming...we don't know when...but it won't be too many years. Less than 3 maybe??? Who knows...but it will happen soon enough.
Be ready when it happens...that's why we trade in our dry powder now so we have silver bullets later ;-)
OT:
Russia has some serious shit:
http://www.voltairenet.org/article185860.html
Nearly safe to short, but not quite yet.
yes, its better to enter longs after pullback
better yet ... when you see Bullard heading for a mic
"Nearly safe to short, but not quite yet. "
Shorting something that could explode to all time highs at any given moment? Takes balls. Though to give you credit, I do expect a Monday morning PM smack down.
There's a G20 meeting this weekend, right? So bid up gold into the meeting, and then I expect a message will be sent by the BIS Sunday night as to why gold is a bad thing to own.
"gold is a bad thing to own."
Never a bad thing to own. But, it's friday and I'm going to find out why a bottle of whisky is a bad thing to own.
Look at silver's chart on this post. You can clearly see price rising and volume declining indicating a strong move back down. In summary I agree with you hehe. Keep stacking.
Never buy PM on a Friday.
Fridays are for coke and hookers.
Have you noticed the heads of State meeting has been moved forward a month.
Snuck it in with no fanfare.It was scheduled for Dec.16 and 17th.Not November.
Thats a very big deal in these things.
Whats up Doc. ?
No more POMO no more movement.
Two Fridays in a Row....
"WTI Crude fell 3.2% this week - 7th week in a row - longest losing streak since 1986"
not just increased supply ... but drop in demand (per EIA)
global economy speaking ... LOUDLY
Don't worry about it. The government owns the best pencils and erasers in the land.
THe gubbamint can cook their own books all they like, but when bond defaults begin in the O&G sector there's not much they can do...
Eh, I think the key point is gold 4.1% off the lows. That is a small earthquake.
yes... only to get Monkey hammer back down when markets re-open ... big whoop dee doo
WooWhoo!
Dump some paper - but some physical...
NA-NA-NANA-na-NA
My Girlfriend, who just got a State job a couple of months ago making decent money, tells me today that word at her office is "the State budget is in trouble" and people might get laid off.
This is in an Inter-mountain West State that supposedly has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the nation, and a "booming economy" according to the politicians and local news outlets.
Tell your girl to stop sucking the government teat...
really - another tax eater, i hope she's good in bed at least
That is a guaranteed way to advance in gov work....but I'm not sure eb would approve.
...that might endanger my access to her teats...so I'm stayin' quiet.
I always feel better after a nice dump...
At the track, I always bet on the pony that took a dump before the race.
Second that - I have just had a country shit.
Does Vlad make it home from Australia? Last time he traveled to the Southern Hemisphere, to the World Cup, a plane "similar to his" fell from the sky. They dropped him from G8, made a show of "back to the G7" but no G19? What is he parking off the coast? Is he holding Sydney Harbor Bridge hostage until he makes it back?
No problem. He's coming in a Tu160 supersonic nuclear bomber...
Shirtless on a white horse with a golden sword held out.
Holy crap! It's on:
http://en.tass.ru/world/759835
Russia’s Channel One show satellite photo evidencing MH17 was downed by fighter jet
Beautiful timing! Just in time to kick off the G-20 in Australia.
Screw you Barack and all your whores: Merkel, Hollande, Cameron, Renzi, Rajoy and Abbott.
WOW, They'll probably lead with that on CNN and Australian news, just to make sure it gets the attention it deserves by both the public and the G20 attendees! LOL...
I know you're right, but in today's world it will be difficult to suppress it entirely.
It's already all over popular "dissident" blogs in Europe.
I certainly hope the Tylers, at least, will relay the story.
It started circulating mid-afternoon, but it was only on smaller Russian websites and blogs. But this is how stuff in "leaked" these days.
Now it's on Itar Tass... regardless of what you think of Itar Tass, this means these images are serious stuff.
That's clearly fake.
down the memory hole in record time!
The frustrating thing about following non-mainstream news is that you may be getting more of the real story (sometimes, sometimes its just craziness) but the world doesn't react in a rational way because the majority is blissfully unaware of the real story. That's what will happen here - there's an extremely serious commitment, across ALL of western mainstream society (politics, business, media) to push the propaganda party line about Russia, Ukraine, ISIS, debt, gold, the economy, etc... and there is NO WAY facts are going to get in the way of the continued promotion of the acceptable party line.
Yep, I'm not going to fight you on this. I agree wholeheartedly with your assessment of the "developed" world.
I agree, this is what will happen, but eventually, slowly at first, as exponential increases are, until wham, poof, bam, these secrets will be adopted by the masses. And it's game over for the corrupt!
All this and no idea what happend to the other MAL flight..yeah ok...
YEahyeah....but have you seen Kim's oily cooter yet?
So much negativity here still. I really like that. Shorting gold after a 40+% drop from the highs. Shorting gold knowing what we know is true all around us. It has bounced off 1,150 again and again. Miners down 60 to 80%. And you short at this level? Ok, good luck with that. Of course it can go lower, but to short now. No thanks.
And many of you are so sure we get a dump on Monday. Wow, I get it. I have been Monkey hammered so many times here I know it is hard to be positive. Many of us are down 50%, 60% or more in our portfolios. But I assure, you, maybe not Monday, Tuesday or whatever. But at some point, there will be a Tsunami in our favor that we will talk about for years. I have said it a dozen times, keep that hand on the tiller and do not waver.
We will win this war. Have a great weekend all. At least for two days, we all feel good. lol. See you Sunday night.
We will....but it won't be this Monday.
Until then we stack.
And drink.
Cheers
US Mint starting allocated shipments again on Monday - which should drop premiums on ASE's - but we can't have cheap silver when the great unwashed get a chance to buy.
Gold hits 55,000 per oz ....... in Roubles
Your right down voter its 56,315.50 Roubles per
Barcharts.com ^xaurub