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Inequality Is Cyclical, Skyrocketing Until – Periodically – Revolution Forces Concessions from Those Who Have Grabbed All the $

George Washington's picture




 

Preface:  Sometimes breakthrough insights come from smart, accomplished people in one expertise who look at a different field with fresh eyes … unencumbered by the dogmas and politics of that field.

Peter Turchin is a professor in the Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, and an adjunct professor in the departments of Anthropology and Mathematics at the University of Connecticut.

Turchin’s new research interest is inequality.  Specifically, Turchin is now applying the mathematical rigor used in population biology to inequality.

We currently have what is arguably the worst inequality in history.  (We’re not talking about the 1% … we’re talking about the real powers-that-be.)

Most Democrats and most Republicans think we have too much inequality. Even the mainstream economists who fought the concept for decades now admit that runaway inequality is destroying our economy.

But we can’t take the current situation in a vacuum …

Peter Turchin notes that inequality is cyclical:

In his book Wealth and Democracy (2002), Kevin Phillips came up with a useful way of thinking about the changing patterns of wealth inequality in the US. He looked at the net wealth of the nation’s median household and compared it with the size of the largest fortune in the US. The ratio of the two figures provided a rough measure of wealth inequality, and that’s what he tracked, touching down every decade or so from the turn of the 19th century all the way to the present. In doing so, he found a striking pattern.

From 1800 to the 1920s, inequality increased more than a hundredfold. Then came the reversal: from the 1920s to 1980, it shrank back to levels not seen since the mid-19th century. Over that time, the top fortunes hardly grew (from one to two billion dollars; a decline in real terms). Yet the wealth of a typical family increased by a multiple of 40. From 1980 to the present, the wealth gap has been on another steep, if erratic, rise. Commentators have called the period from 1920s to 1970s the ‘great compression’. The past 30 years are known as the ‘great divergence’. Bring the 19th century into the picture, however, and one sees not isolated movements so much as a rhythm. In other words, when looked at over a long period, the development of wealth inequality in the US appears to be cyclical. And if it’s cyclical, we can predict what happens next.

 

***

 

In our book Secular Cycles (2009), Sergey Nefedov and I applied the Phillips approach to England, France and Russia throughout both the medieval and early modern periods, and also to ancient Rome. All of these societies (and others for which information was patchier) went through recurring ‘secular’ cycles, which is to say, very long ones. Over periods of two to three centuries, we found repeated back-and-forth swings in demographic, economic, social, and political structures. And the cycles of inequality were an integral part of the overall motion.

 

***

 

Our historical research on Rome, England, France, Russia and now the US shows that these complex interactions add up to a general rhythm.

 

***

 

It looks like the pattern that we see in the US is real. Ours is, of course, a very different society from ancient Rome or medieval England. It is cut off from them by the Industrial Revolution and by innumerable advances in technology since then. Even so, a historically based model might shed light on what has been happening in the US over the past three decades.

So what accounts for the periods of rising equality?  Turchin gives a number of factors.

One is revolution, when inequality became too extreme.  Turchin writes:

History provides another clue. Unequal societies generally turn a corner once they have passed through a long spell of political instability. Governing elites tire of incessant violence and disorder. They realise that they need to suppress their internal rivalries, and switch to a more co-operative way of governing, if they are to have any hope of preserving the social order. We see this shift in the social mood repeatedly throughout history — towards the end of the Roman civil wars (first century BC), following the English Wars of the Roses (1455-85), and after the Fronde (1648-53), the final great outbreak of violence that had been convulsing France since the Wars of Religion began in the late 16th century. Put simply, it is fear of revolution that restores equality. And my analysis of US history in a forthcoming book suggests that this is precisely what happened in the US around 1920.

Indeed, it is well-documented that runaway inequality leads to unrest and revolution.   And as Turchin notes,  – unrest and revolution in turn leads the powers-that-be to stop hogging all of the wealth.

The journal Nature writes:

Perhaps revolution is the best, if not the only, remedy for severe social stresses. [Herbert Gintis, a retired economist who is still actively researching the evolution of social complexity at the University of Massachusetts Amherst] points out that he is old enough to have taken part in the most recent period of turbulence in the United States, which helped to secure civil rights for women and black people. Elites have been known to give power back to the majority, he says, but only under duress, to help restore order after a period of turmoil. “I’m not afraid of uprisings,” he says. “That’s why we are where we are.”

We have repeatedly noted that we are opposed to violent revolution.  Activists like David DeGraw point out that things are going to dramatically change one way or the other … through a huge change for the better, or a descent into violence and chaos.

John F. Kennedy said:

Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable.

Sadly, the government is doing everything it can to crush peaceful change, treating peaceful protesterswhistleblowers and investigative reporters as terrorists.  And the big banks are joining in the effort to make peaceful revolution impossible.

Postscript:  Turchin notes that another factor which at times reduces inequality is a pandemic.   For example, the survivors of the Black Plague could demand higher wages, since labor was scarce.

 

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Sun, 11/16/2014 - 14:58 | 5454631 SocialismIsCancer
SocialismIsCancer's picture

The ONLY inequality in the USA that is an injustice, immoral and violation of Constitutional rights is the inequality of entitlement program parasites voting themselves other people's earnings.

 

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 15:47 | 5452067 YHC-FTSE
YHC-FTSE's picture

We concentrate on the inequality of wealth/resources, but to me the biggest kicker to real anger is the inequalities in the application of justice: The Skewed Corruption of Law and Order.

It's this curious concept of "Exceptionalism"; making certain members of society exempt from prosecution, immune from criticism for crimes that would normally land anyone in the 99% of the population in prison for decades or even face execution that gets my goat. In America it is practiced openly at the international level as the support and instigation of terrorism, kidnappings, mass murders of women and children, tortures, wars and the widespread propaganda machinery of fraud that enable the whole disgusting mess of the MIC. It is completely blatant and nobody is ever punished because it is done by Americans and they are apparently "exceptional". The president even crows about it to the world when faced with dissenting voices abroad.

 

This blatant divide of inequality in the application of common law between the serfs and the rulers extends into every nook and cranny of the system at the national level too. From judges and lawyers to bankers and politicians. We all know about Jamie Dimon, Ben Bernanke, John Brennan, Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, George W Bush, Barack Obama, and Victoria Nuland to name but a few who have openly committed frauds, treason, lied to lawmakers, committed genocidal murder directly and indirectly. Yet the inequality is so deeply ingrained that their lack of punishment for their crimes is taken for granted and they are all able to operate openly, mocking the very foundations which every civilised society is built on: The Equal Application of Law. Since the 15th century, Lady Justice has often been depicted blindfolded. "The blindfold represents objectivity, in that justice is or should be meted out objectively, without fear or favour, regardless of identity, personal wealth, power, or weaknesses."

 

This is what riles me the most. Not their wealth, but their power to subvert the foundations of civilisation itself while crowing about being champions of western civilisation. Everything they say is sickeningly absurd to me. "War to have peace", "Debt to have wealth", "Subservience to the corporatist state to have personal freedom" - All these messages embedded in their speeches and legislations echoed throughout the msm daily until I can feel an aneurysm about to pop in my head. Theirs is the logic of the Mafia. The US Federal Government is the case study template for the Cosa Nostra method of doing business. Protection rackets, rigged casino markets, counterfeit money, loan sharking, fraud, embezzlement and murder to enforce the whole fucking mess.

 

It doesn't have to be this way at all. Look at Norway for example. For all their imperfections, they are at the very top of the overall prosperity rank for a very good reason: Their justice system is not corrupt beyond saving. A quick glance at the headlines in Norway reveal that Queen Sonja's nephew is today facing prison for embezzling a mere $62,000 and five cases of fraud. Can you imagine that happening in the US where millions are siphoned off every day from client accounts at JPM and GS? Where billions go to cronies from the Fed? Where a trillion goes missing in the Pentagon's budget and nobody bats an eyelid? Where conflicts of interest never enters the vocabulary? Can you imagine Senator Biden and his whole fucking family going to prison for being part of the State Dept crew that misappropriated funds to start a war in Ukraine? No of course not. They even installed his cokehead son onto the board of the largest gas producer in Ukraine without any fear of questions being asked. Don't even get me started on AIPAC and the Israeli zionist racket at the core of it all or at least never far from every sick crime committed against the people of America.

 

It is this corruption, this completely blatant open corruption that makes me retch with its vile stink. I say that it isn't about wealth inequality but the inequality in the application of common law. Everything else, including any compensatory distribution of stolen wealth back to the people and reinstating the principles of sound money to prevent the dilution of the national store of value, can follow afterwards. Wealth by itself does not necessarily mean corruption, but wealth with political power as sure as hell usually does.

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 14:30 | 5451909 jacship
jacship's picture

.01/% vs .99/%

Ussa is being FORCE TAXED to submission

Through a printer, or Obolacare, or

Shillary vs Jedadiea

plus 30 mil ghosts

should finish off USSA

we may soon know how it feels, to be an east ukrainian

" nothing changes but the debt "

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 12:01 | 5451604 Comte d'herblay
Comte d'herblay's picture

That was then, this is now.  

The huge difference since 1980 and prior is the burgeoning population, 226,000,000, in 1980, and now 350,00,000, an increase of 124,000,000!!     Arguably a hundred fold increase in uncounted illegals.

Simultaneously, a purposeful destruction of a hundred million jobs by corporations.

This trend begun in 1980 is not levelling off. 

A guaranteed national per capita income is likely the only solution the 10% can offer that would have any effects to mitigate a revolution, or to insure some level of comfort for the 90%.

 

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 13:11 | 5451734 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

A guaranteed national per capita income is likely the only solution the 10% can offer that would have any effects to mitigate a revolution, or to insure some level of comfort for the 90%.

Kind of like the old Soviet Union? Street sweeper jobs in return for a tiny apartment and some food. 

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 15:36 | 5452073 Comte d'herblay
Comte d'herblay's picture

One step better (oir worse):  No JOBS.  You won't have to work to get subsistence and maybe a few extras.

Your time is your own to do with as you will.  

You are not needed for producing and  product or service. But yes, likely a derivation of the soviet and other communist country and socialist countries' models.  

Lowered expectations might salvage one's sanity.  

See Kurt Vonnegut for further details.

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 12:55 | 5451698 centerline
centerline's picture

<looks at chart of historical population growth... then looks at chart of bacteria life-cycle>

Uh oh.

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 12:07 | 5451615 p00k1e
p00k1e's picture

EBT is that guarntee. 

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 11:40 | 5451570 p00k1e
p00k1e's picture

Get rich then pay the fines.  Money erases anything.

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 11:13 | 5451533 techstrategy
techstrategy's picture

People, this is a VERY worthy topic.  We are up against distributional constraints for capitalism (over the long haul consumption flows cannot exceed production).  Ultimately,  the cause is the move from true capitalism to "financial capitalism".  When society is run for those that extract value rather than creating it (which is what happens with a fiat FRB system without explicit and firm limits as financial sector "prints" claims on productive flows) is destined to collapse and suffer massive social instability or revolution.  WE THE PEOPLE can change the path.   Literally.  If everyone was to exit the trillions of dollars in fraudulently priced financial assets (AMZN and NFLX alone are big enough to end the games forever) and buy the entire GLD, we'd get real price discovery of real assets in financial asset terms.   Check my posts on the YMB of NFLX and you'll get a better play by play on how USING MARKET FORCES, we can restore balance and integrity to the system and restore capitalism. 

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 10:58 | 5451518 Marley
Marley's picture

Wow, now we have Inequality Denial.  "God made us all unequal."

This may help:

http://www.europa-als-herausforderung.eu/sites/default/files/kolomabecke...

From the summary:

Reconsidering their arguments in the framework of social constructivism, this article reconstructs violence as a triangular process evolving between “performer”, “target” and “observer”.

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 12:51 | 5451693 centerline
centerline's picture

Isn't this why it is always best to whack the observer(s) too?

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 10:48 | 5451504 estebanDido
estebanDido's picture

How the hell can you take inequality out of the capitalist system? Nobel prize in economics for whomever.

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 14:25 | 5451897 Raging Debate
Raging Debate's picture

Esteban - First of all forget the 'isms'. What you want is a Republic where all are under the law and none above it which offers equal protection for all. After that if you want to stop bribery increase representatibes to the point where it is uneconomical to buy them all off. Hand me my prize now...

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 09:57 | 5451435 no more banksters
Sat, 11/15/2014 - 09:57 | 5451431 The Wedge
The Wedge's picture

Revolutions occur precisely when the less dominate can no longer adapt to a rapidly changing socioeconomic landscape precipitated by a more dominant class. The individual is quite adaptable over a protracted period but hardly in acute time frames thus marking the decline of the more dominant class.

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 14:05 | 5451388 SocialismIsCancer
SocialismIsCancer's picture

Question: Does all of this alleged "Skyrocketing Inequality" take into consideration the reality that both of the corrupt political parties have imported AND AMNESTIED 8 TIMES 50+ MILLION uneducated, unintelligent, unskilled, destitute peasants from Latin America, whose politicians were joyously happy to export them ????????????????????????????

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 17:49 | 5452398 The Wedge
The Wedge's picture

Yes it does. There will always be a dominant socioeconomic class and when their status reaches a tipping point, as it obviously has, then their power is used to oppress the less dominant classes. Your example of bringing in cheaper non-citizen labor is a perfect example of how the dominant classes use their power and wealth to subvert you.

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 08:55 | 5451369 mikelongisland
mikelongisland's picture

HEY GEORGE, SCREW YOU AND YOUR, ALLEGED, 'INEQUALITY' ! 

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 15:14 | 5452021 George Washington
George Washington's picture

Welcome, Mike:

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 09:19 | 5451389 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

The inequality just ensures the collapse of the system.

 

You may not like that fact. History has the story told so many times. And while History does not repeat it most certainly rhymes.

 

You may not like that which is about to unfold. But it still does not change it. And unfold it will.

 

So please sit back. Enjoy your collapse. You deserve it as you are entitled. Right?

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 07:47 | 5451323 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

This should not continue. Those who look closely understand that it is not the 1% at the top stealing the icing off the cake, but the much smaller .1% or .01% that are skewing the numbers and overreaching.

I contend the biggest problem is the massive growth in crony capitalism and corruption in Washington. Much of this can be attributed to the ability of those in control "changing the rules" and positioning themselves to benefit at every corner. In our busy and complex world we have found it impossible to watch all the moving parts. More on how this leads to collapse in the article below.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/05/how-empires-collapse.html

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 07:21 | 5451311 barroter
barroter's picture

Elite own  9 slices of a 10 slice pizza. The rest of you 315,000,000 of you can fight over the last piece.

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 15:06 | 5451992 Winston of Oceania
Winston of Oceania's picture

Fuck them, I make my own pizza...

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 06:31 | 5451280 Mountainview
Mountainview's picture

Human beings are not born equal Point. This explains all the rest.

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 12:49 | 5451687 centerline
centerline's picture

Please report to nearest re-education center.  This sort of politically incorrect speech disturbs the slaves.

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 03:57 | 5451176 Ohne Deckung
Ohne Deckung's picture

Oh the inequality.

Do not name the game in place by the rear part.

You should speak about it proper and honestly.

Profit it is you have in mind, just not at the moment when speaking of inequality.

To make profit and to make inequality is the same coin.

Beginning with the do what I've told you whitout giving answers, or, more civility at case, give your hike for a deal that is in first place profitable for me.

No one would commit such a dead you may think, free of the smokescreen that is lasting over the nature of our economy.

The sell out of inequality goes with the moral packaging once a day you, as the minor part of the contract will be able to turn the table.

That's maybe good for you but not for the case of inequality.

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 12:14 | 5451631 centerline
centerline's picture

Might want to lay off the magic shrooms.

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 11:54 | 5451594 Comte d'herblay
Comte d&#039;herblay's picture

I'm pretty sure Howdy Doody was a puppet.

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 04:11 | 5451189 George Washington
George Washington's picture

Welcome:

Sun, 11/16/2014 - 03:31 | 5453696 Ohne Deckung
Ohne Deckung's picture

Is this not an advantage not to be welcomed. I thought so. That seems to be over now. Thank you for the attention, das wäre jetzt aber nicht nötig gewesen, we like to thank reprochfully.

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 03:19 | 5451153 JoJoJo
JoJoJo's picture

Recently taken polls show that a very high percentage of men and teens and an even higher percent of women DONT WANT TO WORK. The richest of the rich are prospering because of borrowed money as well as the countrys poorest who still own two cars, TV, government paid lodging, food and other benefits. Who needs a middle class while the  Fed and FedGov keep pumping money both to the uppers and lowers?

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 02:05 | 5451090 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Ya its been about a 100 years and time for a good thorough head lopping. If those afflicted would only know enough to see a psychiatrist about their financial perversions they wouldn't have to lose their heads over it.

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 01:41 | 5451064 TeethVillage88s
TeethVillage88s's picture

Repost

Look this is about Empire & Dynasty Building.

Look at the Roman Empire or British Empire.

#1 they have to take resources and use human labor either for production or military service, Empires must find ways to manipulate the system to come out on top, accounting fraud, theft, use of debt to force government officials to grant lands or monopolies
#2 there are many kinds of debt that can be brought up, our understanding of economics was that banks too in deposits, lent out dollars from the local economy to create capital, originally we thought this was debt free money being used to stimulate the economy
#3 Fractional Reserve Debt takes Fiat and create debt and money out of thin air for loans & investments, not only does this inflate the dollar (devalue USD), it means if the bank takes over the assets due to failure... the bank becomes richer since it now owns the assets that it created from thin air!!!

This is Financial War against Government, Households, and Businesses.

QE has enabled this process, ZIRP is Oppression, TARP is Oppression as they bailed out the Irresponsible Elite Bankers... but deeper you see the Banks don't serve the people or the government. Banks are disconnected from the Country, Government Ideals, Accounting Integrity... they only have to turn over financial transaction or create securities, buy stocks, buy bonds, buy and encourage buying of Real Estate... and they get promotions & bonuses.

Wealth has shift from Creating Capital (the old way)... now wealth is created through financializing real estate, stocks, bonds, derivatives.

Decapitalization of Industry is Key to understanding this, but also wage declines also indicate... we shifted from Industrial Capital Wealth to Bull Shit.

Michael Hudson: Finances vs Economy, Credit vs Money [3/18 ENG] ...Sounds like lots of ZH people agree with him on Greece & Financialization of Debt & Government in order to steal the assets.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JZQqrxHGcoQ Whole thing is good!

Fri, 11/14/2014 - 23:07 | 5450827 Reaper
Reaper's picture

Nature with sexual reproduction continually produces different men. As the elite become more insular and more inbred, they lack the biological diversity of the ever expanding underclass. Whatever skills enabled their originators of the wealth to obtain that wealth are not genetically passed on, nor are their spawn trained by serious competition. Like the kings of Europe or the people in Appalachia, degeneracy and sloth multiply. This is the cause of the inevitable cycle or revolving.

The inequality ends when the more intelligent/clever discover that they can take from the elite. The system continues until the clever say NO and NO and take. Nature rewards the adaptable, the audacious, the sly, and the daring. The spawn of the elite survive without effort until they don't.

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 09:02 | 5451375 Raging Debate
Raging Debate's picture

Reaper - I agree that is the cyclical nature of it. Inequality reverses when the police state becomes unsustainable which results in loss of confidence and profit.

Rulers retire and the next crop have to create and execute plans becoming leaders which also understand that they need the population to participate and cooperate. Stealing from the people tends to go unpunished, the biggest looters move the wealth offshore and then themselves with it.

People pretend to work when the pay sucks, that becomes unprofitable and the police state collapses. We're seeing that already and reduced wages and pensions having cops doing more direct forms of stealing on top of being government tax collectors. People do wise up and find methods to preserve there money but of course this wastes valuable time and pisses people off.

The sharp and audacious find the wealthy, pick up the phone and sell them things and as far as I am concerned the customer is happy even if I feel I overcharged them a little then it's all good. You can personally transfer the wealth back without outright stealing. As I did better doing this have had to spend time finding ways to defend myself from employees and neighbors that have zero shred of morals.

"As I ransack there house they wanna shake my hand. Focusing on nowhere, investigating miles I'm a seeker I'm a really desperate man!"
- The Seeker by The Who

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 01:51 | 5451075 TeethVillage88s
TeethVillage88s's picture

No. What is going on is Systemic and is widely happening from TSA, NSA, IRS, CIA, FBI, Office of the President, both houses of the Congress, FED, TBTF Wall Street, Big Corporations important to the US Empire... and the federal influence and Wall Street influence reaches States, counties, municipalities... and the Press & TV... and the act of going to war... and the support of war.

See below post from me.

It is all systemic corruption. It is a financial war on government, businesses, and households.

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 09:24 | 5451397 Raging Debate
Raging Debate's picture

Teeth - Yep. Systemic corruption and then the gaul of ultimate hypocricy to tax people on moral issues like 'gender bias' or smoking a little dope while they drink some black label scotch rewriting the rules.

There was this game like Risk I played in 1985 on the PC. Each country had different kinds of assets in them like gold, timber, etc. If you attacked a country and won this big word would appear as you grabbed the assets. The word was "LOOTING!" . You would grin devilishly at your friends sittig next to you awaiting there turn and yell at them "LOOTING!" as you wiped them out.

I was reminded of this game the other night when talking to my older brother about ineqaulity subject the other night. I said only one sentence about how so many are just such scum these days and he yelled back:
"LOOTING!" I had a nice buzz on at the time so I did laugh pretty hard when he said it. I instantly remembered that game and those sessions with friends.

Sun, 11/16/2014 - 21:18 | 5455437 TeethVillage88s
TeethVillage88s's picture

Yeah. Empires needed to loot when the war chest got empty.

Lots of stuff needed like for ship building, UK Ran out of good wood for Masts.

- US has been getting Fruit & Produce from abroad for like 150 years, and backing it up with our military
- Conquest, in order to fight the British, Dutch, French, or Portuguese

Late ADD on Systemic Corruption:

- Regulation Capture
- Government Capture
- Revolving Door to Industry for Regulators & Government Employees/Military Officers
- Gresham's Law
- Augustines' Law, by 2054 the DOD will only be able to buy one airplane which must be shared BTW Services since the cost of Weapons is Increasing Exponentially
- Doctors & Justices Accept Gifts of Seminars for Professional Development & Certifications, these Gifts come from Industry who want to put their Agenda in Place
- Money in Politics, Gift Giving, are Systemic Corruption

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 09:08 | 5451382 hendrik1730
hendrik1730's picture

Systemic my ass. All these "institutions" you mention are installed by the elite to keep the intelligent individuals of the so-called underclass in control. And this works for as long as the elite has enough resources to keep all the bullshit ongoing - which they don't much longer anymore : each and every more or less smart person has long since abandoned all faith in the present monetary system and/or the social security system and did invest in ( preferably transportable ) real assets while the real dumb underclass owns only DEBT. In communist Europe, the system crashes already under it's own weight ..... just like the USSR did. Be patient but in the mean time, get cover.

Sun, 11/16/2014 - 19:09 | 5455319 TeethVillage88s
TeethVillage88s's picture

Well I think of Systemic on the same level as ultimate Injustice, Anti-Freedom & Evil. It looks like Mafia Tricks when you get down to it.

Agree Exponential Debt is Anti-Liberty and can't continue, just as Exponential Growth can't continue.

- Liberty, Justice, and Freedom from Systemic Rape

Thanks for the Response. We are now numbers, account numbers with debt listed, we have been Securitized.

Fri, 11/14/2014 - 23:22 | 5450858 VWAndy
VWAndy's picture

Good stuff. Did you put that togther? A very smart guy said something very simalar to me a few days ago.

Fri, 11/14/2014 - 21:56 | 5450644 xavi1951
xavi1951's picture

I will keep my millions and you can all fight amongst yourselves for the crumbs.  Thank you

Fri, 11/14/2014 - 21:18 | 5450531 doc333
doc333's picture

Serfs are many and broke. Tyrants are few, well funded and heavily armed.

Fri, 11/14/2014 - 22:11 | 5450683 SgtShaftoe
SgtShaftoe's picture

Bullshit. I've never seen an elite doing infantry training. They outsource their security to mercenaries.

As Taleb repeatedly points out: We are also at a cyclical point in history in which those in power take the smallest downside in history- they push their downside to others. Napoleon lead his troops from the front. Today, there isn't a leader that exists that even has the capability to do that (well maybe one), let alone one that runs real combat ops (infantry).

Rome had a problem with their leaders being killed by their own bodyguards. It's not a prediction, but something to watch for as a tipping point.

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 06:56 | 5451294 doc333
doc333's picture

"Rome had a problem with their leaders being killed by their own bodyguards. It's not a prediction, but something to watch for as a tipping point." Until that starts to happen, my point stands. The mercenaries ARE their armament – they don't need to be personally involved.  Tyrant lite, don'cha know....

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 02:07 | 5451092 TeethVillage88s
TeethVillage88s's picture

Apocalypse Now.

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 09:36 | 5451411 Raging Debate
Raging Debate's picture

"Oh the horror..."

After raping a victim sometimes the rapist strangles the victim. It is another reason I hedge. Some plans by a few select individuals that own the plantation are not going to like the blowback if certain things occur. Don't ask me to extrapolate.

Fri, 11/14/2014 - 20:06 | 5450283 bunnyswanson
bunnyswanson's picture

This is not cyclical.  This is elimination of the middle class, more specifically, elimination of the retiring baby boomers - there is not going to be a retirement because there is no pension that will survive this Ponzi scheme and govt are broke in developed nations. 

 

http://www.deagel.com/country/United-States-of-America_c0001.aspx

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