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Oil-Producing Countries' Currencies Are Getting Crushed

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While most people's attention has been focused on the demise of the Russian Ruble this year, since the June highs in Crude Oil, the oil-producing nations of the world have seen their currencies devalue rapidly. From Brazil to Nigeria and Algeria, the impact of lower oil revenues is starting to create a vicious circle for many of these nations... and having consequences for the very Petrodollar flows that the US relies upon...

 

 

Mission Accomplished - if the goal was crashing Russia's Ruble - but the consequences of the collapsing Petrodollar flows (as we noted here) may wellcome back to bite...

 

As we concluded previously,

  • The stronger US dollar is having an inverse impact on dollar-denominated commodity prices, including oil. This will affect emerging market (EM) credit quality in various ways.
  • The implications of reduced recycled petrodollars has significant ramifications for financial markets, loan markets and Treasury yields. In fact, EM energy exporters will post their first net drain on global capital (USD8bn) in eighteen years.
  • Oil and gas exporting EMs account for 26% of total EM GDP and 21% of external bonds. For these economies, the impact will be on lost fiscal revenue, lost GDP growth and the contribution to reserves of oil and gas-related export receipts. Together, these will have a significant effect on sustainability and liquidity ratios and as a consequence are negative for dollar debt-servicing risks and credit ratings.

In other words, oil exporters are now pulling liquidity out of financial markets rather than putting money in. That could result in higher borrowing costs for governments, companies, and ultimately, consumers as money becomes scarcer.

 

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Sat, 11/15/2014 - 12:34 | 5451662 winchester
winchester's picture

i'll never get why on earth with limited ressources,  the less ressources remains, the more shit is coming so cheaper price become...  there is a serious problem somewhere.

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 12:33 | 5451665 Publicus
Publicus's picture

The age of bitcoin.

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 13:13 | 5451736 Mr.Sono
Mr.Sono's picture

Since we hate competition, we need to steal oil somehow.

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 14:18 | 5451881 knukles
knukles's picture

HOLD THE BOAT

How can it be said that oil producing countries currencies are being crushed?
What's happening to the US dollar?
We're supposedly one of the world's largest producers of oil.

Hmmmmmm?

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 15:28 | 5452055 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Chipotle and Herbalife answereth all questions...,   

     but yeah;)

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 16:14 | 5452173 SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

the currency of oil producing and exporting countries is weakening

that is because the price of oil is relatively cheap

as the soon-to-be-crowned oil exporter, the us will enjoy the low priced oil further strengthening its already strong petrodollar

it is brown's bottom for us oil

when the assets that back your currency are worthless, your currency becomes very valuable

hugs,
the new order

 

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 17:49 | 5452399 COSMOS
COSMOS's picture

Say goodbye to the dollar, the USA is pissing off a lot of countries

Sun, 11/16/2014 - 11:32 | 5454155 bbq on whitehou...
bbq on whitehouse lawn's picture

Its not about emotions its just business, there is not enough demand for dollars outside finance. Real trade would need to take place inorder for other countries to want US dollars in trade for their stuff.
Its not personal, just business and the US is not increaseing demand faster then the government can spend it. Government shrinkage is comeing.

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 13:14 | 5451744 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

When we think of the year 2015 we shiver. But that could be because it's colder 'n a witchez teat here.

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 15:30 | 5452062 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Well, if no one will allow stawks, bonds, or real estate to fall, valuations still have to equalize somehow.

Long nail guns.

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 12:58 | 5451707 Pooper Popper
Pooper Popper's picture

"there is a serious problem somewhere."

 

Were Fucked!

 

Fixed it for you

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 12:59 | 5451711 PT
PT's picture

winchester:  If people are becoming poorer faster than resources are declining then resource prices can indeed go down as they become rarer.

If Freddy is so poor that he is forced to sell his F250 and buy a bicycle, then his demand for oil will plummet.

This also suggests a solution for oil countries.  If you can somehow encourage people to buy 5.8 litre muscle cars (subsidies?  make a cheap version?  Free V8 with every 1000 barrels purchased?), you can make up for your lower prices through higher volume.  Errr, now my explanations, while they sound good if you say it fast, have devolved into babbling territory.  What % of oil is used for personal transport and what % is used in industry?

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 13:01 | 5451715 OW My Balls
OW My Balls's picture

Try military

Sun, 11/16/2014 - 11:39 | 5454167 bbq on whitehou...
bbq on whitehouse lawn's picture

Try the rest of the world. Japan and Europe will buy that cheap petrol so will Asia and Afraca would like some generator power.

Lots of demand if the price is right.

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 13:08 | 5451728 Matt
Matt's picture

67% transportation, of which 61% is light duty vehicles, in USA in 2004:

http://www.streets.mn/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/US-transportation-oil-u...

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 14:32 | 5451911 PT
PT's picture

Thank you thank you thank you Matt.
Not every day I get such concise answers to my questions.

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 13:00 | 5451714 Silver Short Seller
Silver Short Seller's picture

That's because the malthusian theory did not consider the advances in technology (e.g. shale oil fracking and horizontal drilling). There's also the price mechanism which signals to entrepreneurs which goods are in demand and supply then expands.

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 13:09 | 5451731 Matt
Matt's picture

You think the problem is too much supply?

Not rapidly declining demand, caused by too much debt and no more ability to borrow to consume at ever higher prices?

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 13:41 | 5451806 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

So I drive faster because energy prices are way down? Why wouldn't I just keep driving slow and "pocket the difference"?

Malthus made no opening for economics itself...not just technology.

In other words a savings/cash flow boom creates its own recovery. Forget mere productivity...if you have an outright production boom that will feed on itself an quite possibly in a positive way (soaring equities for example.)

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 13:47 | 5451827 Matt
Matt's picture

Saving will only get you ahead if your in-flows remain the same or higher, and the interest on your debts do not grow faster than you can pay them. I'm referring to society as a whole here, not you specifically. 

Until the debts are cleared and real austerity happens (austerity meaning spending less than you make, again for society as a whole not anyone individually) I don't think this production boom you speak of can occur. 

Even if the economics side works out, I'm not sure the energy side will be able to keep up; if the debt overhang cleared and there was a sudden, sharp decline throughout the economy followed by a fast recovery, I don't think the supply of energy would be able to grow fast enough to meet the demand.

 

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 21:52 | 5453020 Curiously_Crazy
Curiously_Crazy's picture

"So I drive faster because energy prices are way down? Why wouldn't I just keep driving slow and "pocket the difference"?

 

Anecdotal evidence only as to how people are feeling the pain, but over the past 6 or 7 years I've noticed how people are driving more slowly on the freeways (regardless of oil prices). It wasn't uncommon in the 90's to see people on the freeway doing 120kph in a 100 zone..  the into the 2000's and it seemed people were actually sitting on the limit. Today however pretty much the left 3 lanes are all doing 80-90 and the farmost right lane is barely cracking 100.

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 19:59 | 5452766 daveO
daveO's picture

'Did not consider'? Try still do not consider. I thought he was a narrator on PBS. They're constantly promoting such rubbish, when not touting Carbon Taxes for global warming. People need to remember, coal never run out. It just got replaced by cheaper, better alternatives. Technology=productivity. 

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 14:03 | 5451859 Escrava Isaura
Escrava Isaura's picture

 

 

winchester

“i'll never get why on earth with limited resources…  the more shit is coming so cheaper price”

 

Answer: Because the US (financial) is the boss of the word. And they need to drive business, as well as wage down.

The way they do with business/nation states is: The bankers’ first indebt them. Then, they crash them by price deflation, so they won’t be able to pay their bills.

 

On wage they do by relocating offshore (globalization).

 

Got it?

 

Let me give you an example:

 

Michael Hudson:

As of 1976, Argentina had a total foreign debt of $18 million, 17 percent of GDP. The military came in in ’76 with U.S. government support, established a junta. By 1983, the debt had soared to $48 billion–by a factor of seven.

You had the U.S.-backed military dictatorship that ran the debt up into 1983, but then, in 1989, you had another neoliberal takeover with the Washington Consensus, and they adopted the U.S. dollar as their basic monetary reserves and tied their money supply to the dollar.

That essentially drove the country into debt because it brought on an economic collapse by 2002.

So you have a destructive neoliberal government coming in, driving the country into debt, ’cause that’s what neoliberals do.

 

http://michael-hudson.com/2014/07/vulture-funds-trump-argentinian-sovereignty/ 

 

 

 

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 14:47 | 5451950 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

Want to understand how the Zionists work and what they ultimately bring about, study Argentina.

An American, not US subject.

 

"It's a Zionist world, time to build a guillotine."

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 15:19 | 5452029 Escrava Isaura
Escrava Isaura's picture

 

 

As well as by studying subprime mortgages in the US, 1997 Asia financial crisis (wonder why they ‘China’ has so much of their savings in dollar), 1998 Russia Financial Crisis, South America (as well as 2008 US Financial Crisis) liquidity crisis, even when South America is a very wealth continent while most of its people still living in total poverty. 

 

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 20:41 | 5452857 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

While building the 'Decapitator', or rolling out the barrel and sharp axe,  they might also want to get OFF the USD Debt-slave camp, and roll out their Gold+Oil based currency.  STAT!!!

If they don't do this REAL FAST, they are dead meat:  Club Fed/Redshield intends to take them out one by one, to prevent the Russians from gaining enough global support for Critical Mass.  Speed is EVERYTHING here.  Move fast or perish!

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 14:45 | 5451941 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

It begins and ends with money, fiat, "printing," theft.

Well, history tells us that it actually begins with "printing," theft, and ends in slaughter.

An American, not US subject.

 

"History does not repeat, the crimes of governmnet do."

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 17:41 | 5452381 Cloud9.5
Cloud9.5's picture

The run up in prices has priced consumers out of the market, ie demand destruction which results in a price drop.

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 20:27 | 5452829 CoolClo
CoolClo's picture

Here is the key...

"That could result in higher borrowing costs for governments, companies, and ultimately, consumers as money becomes scarcer.".

 

"as money becomes scarcer"...........-D-E-F-L-A-T-I-O-N....

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 12:33 | 5451663 viator
viator's picture

You mean the long sought inflation is finally here?

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 12:39 | 5451672 Bell's 2 hearted
Bell's 2 hearted's picture

depends on country

 

US will be importing DEFLATION (for now)

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 20:03 | 5452772 daveO
daveO's picture

Until banks start hurting again.

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 12:48 | 5451680 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Perhaps in an ironical way, yes.

Sales at GM have been huge and driven by this huge boom in energy production and the "waste" (consumption) associated with it. "Too much money chasing too few goods" literally.

I would argue prices collapsing will not reduce either demand or cap ex as well as the demand for dollars is such that it's far better to give the oil away and "shut in production" (via consumption) than turn of the pipe and turn off all cash flow period.

In short it is my view the "system" (oil production in the US) can run at a loss for a sustained period (decades?) since the production boom is creating other "economies" in the region. (Import/export boom for example.)

Time will tell as the region has known huge busts in the past but one look at all the flaring going on says to me there is little fear of a revenue collapse otherwise these companies would be trying to get every penny they could from actual production rather than give it away for free.

Strange that the environmentalists say nothing about the flaring issues actually.

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 12:58 | 5451709 Bell's 2 hearted
Bell's 2 hearted's picture

marginal (viable only at high oil prices) projects will get slammed

 

the cash burn will be fierce

 

you're gonna lend them $$s?

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 13:46 | 5451824 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I'm not right now but somebody sure is. (State of North Dakota?)

Certainly hitting blow off tops in the Bakken, etc. how is their problem solved by stopping production period tho?

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 13:52 | 5451843 Matt
Matt's picture

Let's say you owe $1000 and every day you work, your debt grows $10. If you stop working, your debt is $1000. If you keep working for 100 days, you will owe $2000. If you stop working and wait until the price of oil goes up, you can go to work and make $10 per day. 

Which is better is hard to say, it seems like a really bad situation to be in. No way to know what future price and demand will be, so you cannot be certain that the price will be higher in the near-enough future (before you go bust and lose everything). Is it better to operate at a loss just to service existing debt, while increasing total debt?

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 14:50 | 5451953 Amish Hacker
Amish Hacker's picture

I'd say we're about to find out. ZIRP is the magical elixer that allows this insanity to continue, since the cost of servicing a $2,000 debt is not significantly higher than servicing $1,000. Just throw the new losses onto the pile. Meanwhile, the company continues to operate, workers get their weekly checks, and most importantly, bonuses continue for the corner offices.

"Stop working" means incurring real costs for shutting down/restarting operations, the probable desertion by a significant portion of your labor force (requiring replacement/retraining), and the end to the wonderfully unfair system that benefitted you so generously.

As long as ZIRP continues, nothing changes, but if interest rates should rise, even a little.... #REF!

 

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 13:06 | 5451667 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

Unintended consequences of Obama's war on Putin.  All major markets are in the West and subject to control by the US.  Just like all Western Media is controlled by the US

"The Central Intelligence Agency owns everyone of any significance in the major media." -- William Colby, former CIA Director, cited by Dave Mcgowan, Derailing Democracy

Putin Loses His Best Friend: Expensive Oil

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-14/putin-loses-his-best-friend-exp...

 

The Telegraph of the UK, one that always faithfully reports US propaganda on every event, is exulting in Putin's problems caused by lower oil prices:

Oil slump leaves Russia even weaker than decaying Soviet Union

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/111812...

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 13:07 | 5451727 PT
PT's picture

What does Russia need to import?  Why does it need to sell oil?  Why can't the oil be used internally?

(Yes, I probably should just look it up myself and I will later, if I remember, but it's way past my bed time so I'll just throw those qs out there for yas before I go nighties.

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 13:28 | 5451771 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Speaking of "Just Observing" things... I observe that all this "Russian Sanctions" and Commodity Price Dumps help one country in particular:  CHINA!

Funny how the MSM, nor ZH seems to pick up on that obvious and glaring fact.

If I didn't know better (because "Russia and China are BFFs", right?), I'd almost suspect that the West is simply driving Russia into China's arms.  That's one heck of a Takeover -- via the Backdoor, it seems.  Time will tell if this hypothesis has any legs.

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 13:37 | 5451794 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

China has always benefited from tensions between Russia and the West.  Nixon's rapprochement with China in 1972 was a move against the Soviet Union.  Obama has gambled that attacking Russia and benefiting China ia a deal he can live with.  That may turn out to be a mistake.

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 14:08 | 5451866 lesterbegood
lesterbegood's picture

Or perhaps the PTB in China are running the whole show and the US, Russia, et al, are the fronts?

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 16:33 | 5452205 tarabel
tarabel's picture

 

 

China sells manufactured goods to commoditiy producing countries that do not make their own stuff. Wiping out their economies does not leave a lot of loose change in the cushions to splurge on trinkets.

I keep asking myself the same question every time I see Chinese economic statistics. With every one of their major markets flat or in depression, and their own splurge on ghost cities at an end, where does this magical 7% growth rate come from?

I spend a lot of time buying ordinary retail items and I look at the labels-- always. The evidence of my own lying eyes tells me that they are losing market share everywhere, no matter what spews out of the joint propaganda bureaus of the world.

Again, I'll list the obvious gainers--

Mexico

Vietnam

Taiwan

United States

And again I'll ask the usual rhetorical question--

Who really WANTS to buy Chinese products, as in purchasing from China if there is a matching-price alternative? Or even a really close but slightly higher price?

There was a time when people bought Japanese because it was the best in both price and quality. China is not there and will never be there. 

Their access to Western technology has been shut off due to their kleptocratic ways. Their desperate manufacturing base is shipping goods that fail even their own QC checks because they are in a frantic quest for cash flow to make their payments and stay alive until things hopefully get better.

Selling non-functional stuff wipes out your customer base.

China is in many ways in the same place as the Soviet Union right before its collapse. It looks monolithic, huge, and strong when in fact it is desperately looking for a way out of the box it is in. The only question is whether it will quietly implode or else have a go at the Argentinian last-throw-of-the-dice model.

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 17:54 | 5452413 COSMOS
COSMOS's picture

And here all along I thought you were describing the USA

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 13:44 | 5451812 emersonreturn
emersonreturn's picture

russia ought to demand japan and GE begin to clean up fuku.  russia ought to take it to world court.  why russia (and china for that) have remained quiet about fuku makes me wonder if the banks really do control russia.

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 16:08 | 5452155 tarabel
tarabel's picture

 

 

You really think Russia, with its vast Siberian nuclear septic tanks bubbling away and dozens of submarine reactors dumped on the seabed, really wants to start yapping about nuclear cleanups for the sake of humanity?

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 20:20 | 5452805 emersonreturn
emersonreturn's picture

fuku is the biggest mess on the planet.  russia has its problems, yes, including reactors dumped on the seabed.   my deceased brother in law was one of the first into chernobyl, and yes he died of a brain tumour shortly thereafter.  but fuku is hand's down the greatest global hairball, beyond our worst fears, and since the MSM and western govts pretend it is not happening, i don't see how it will affect russia too adversely  to start 'yapping' loudly about it.  asking why it's not being repaired, monitored and detail the impact it's having.  the US is hammering away at russia, i see this a natural way to bring the world to begin to question---how come obola worries about what the BRICS are doing to address global warming while they are in fact putting the entire west coast of america at risk? according to enenews the highest recorded numbers after 2011 were in florida.  because of the currents the effects are global.  yes, i think russia should 'yap' about it.  every other country is scared to say anything.  just ignore, after all it is too terrible to tell the sheeple.  russia may the only nation capable of addressing it.

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 12:37 | 5451670 esum
esum's picture

GLOBAL DEPRESSION COMIN.... and ww3

take a look at the "global leaders"..... see any brainpower there? 

but you do see PSYCHOS.... 

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 12:37 | 5451671 Bell's 2 hearted
Bell's 2 hearted's picture

Treasury yield will go lower ... much lower

 

as for King Dollar ... it will crush S&P earnings (both on exports and fx treatment of overseas earnings) ... leading to slashed capex ... layoffs

 

fwiw, i've laid down my marker for US recession starting no later than Q1 2015

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 13:00 | 5451713 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Still long treasuries but for contrary reasons (I expected the boom...got it and now think it's a classic over shot so see long treasury as the only hedge that can compound profitably.)

Don see a recession because interest rates are still "negative" (below inflation...pegged at zero) and not going higher anytime soon.

An energy boom in the US mid west is inflationary. Should be great for banks and banking actually.

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 13:18 | 5451751 Bell's 2 hearted
Bell's 2 hearted's picture

energy boom in the midwest?

 

those are the projects that will get taken out on a stretcher ... iirc, saudia oil about the cheapest in the world to get out of the ground

 

we'll have a recession due to the channel has been stuffed ... i've followed inventories closely ... getting high ... and just don't see the demand (especially from offshore) that will work them off without production cutbacks.

 

FDIC and OCC have both warned on subprime auto lending turning sour.

 

won't be pretty

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 13:22 | 5451753 deeply indebted
deeply indebted's picture

You are mistaken. Negative interest rates will delay recession, but recession (or worse) will come in the end. Years of low/negative rates will actually compound the severity, maybe even to the point of complete collapse.

Side note:  How anyone can find their way to this site and remain "hopey" anyway is beyond me..

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 13:53 | 5451844 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I was hooey when Tyler Turden first appeared. So I'm doubling down on hope because the broken clock here has yet to be right once.

I've haven't been wrong yet either. I'll be the first to say not only could be wrong but I SHOULD be wrong too.

Shorting the market is one thing...but if you've been shorting me you've gotten killed.

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 12:47 | 5451677 Bell's 2 hearted
Bell's 2 hearted's picture

i was looking at walmart (released Q3 thursday) earnings reports ... past 2 quarters had negative fx impact of ~ $1billion 

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 12:50 | 5451689 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Wal Mart, McDonalds potentially huge winners here. They're the low cost leader in what is now the highest cost region (Mid west Amercan) of any place in the world.

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 13:56 | 5451847 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Again...look at GM's sales numbers. "Short these names at great peril." They have done nothing but go sideways for a decade now...usually a cue for a big move higher "because they have manged hell quite well."

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 15:16 | 5452028 Think Like A Crook
Think Like A Crook's picture

We are not in "usual" times though.

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 12:55 | 5451697 Hamm Jamm
Hamm Jamm's picture

No big deal...   increase the amount of money...  PRINT PRINT PRINT like a mother F-er

QE will save the stock market

 

This whole TURD BOWL systems sucks donkey balls...    fuck you fed !!  burn in hell

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 13:14 | 5451740 deeply indebted
deeply indebted's picture

Hmmm.. Slowing economy you see. Currency wars we have. Yes?

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 13:18 | 5451747 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

As I posted only yesterday*, I call Bullshit on thise whole "Strong Dollar" thing, in the light of falling oil prices.  Recall that it's still the PETRO-Dollar.  Tyler, step away from that Bloomberg Kool-Aid fountain.  ;-)

*Fri, 11/14/2014 - 12:10 | 5448681  Kirk2NCC1701

So... If the USD is indexed to Oil (Petrodollar), and the price of oil is falling because Demand is allegedly down (rather than being manipulated downwards), then this "strengthens" the dollar HOW?

Especially with all the QEs and ZIRP, where are these Petrodollars to find a home (other than in overvalued stocks) and still be called "strong"?  All I get is the "Strong" smell of Bullshit, coming from NY and DC**.

** Dual Citizens, Diabolical C_nts, Despotic Crooks.

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 13:27 | 5451770 Bell's 2 hearted
Bell's 2 hearted's picture

uhh, a $1 buys more gas than a year ago?

 

CRB (basket of commodities) near 4 yr low

 

Cash is King

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 13:39 | 5451798 falak pema
falak pema's picture

As the nominal price of oil drops and the currencies of oil producers drop, the consequent rise of USD makes the revenue balance for oil exporters less painful, if they are not over extended.

As their USD earnings convert to much more local currency, to finance local consumption/investment.

The key here is to stay out of strong currency borrowing and imports in USD. 

Not good for US exports. But those oil exporters better not be overboard on hard currency borrowings. 

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 13:18 | 5451750 LostandFound
LostandFound's picture

Clearly the financial war on Russia and the physical war in the Middle East is far more important than the global economy. What does this tell you about the way that we are heading? 

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 13:21 | 5451755 himaroid
himaroid's picture

It is simple demand destruction.

Credit markets trillions.

QE billions.

Deflation.

10-12,000 new U.S. retirees every single day. How many worldwide?

Let precious get cheaper, and keep picking at it.

If you are already well stocked, watch for signs that fed is getting ready to go zimbabwe to fight deflation.

They must have a huge equity market drop to justify it.

Then load the trucks.

In the meantime, drive around with the top down.

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 13:22 | 5451760 Otto Zitte
Otto Zitte's picture

Planned 

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 13:29 | 5451766 falak pema
falak pema's picture

The negative deflationary spiral of currency cum commodity and financial frantic wars means that no asset klass is safe.

All the while Oligarchy liquidity needs safe havens and the leverage of Banksta derivative plays requires that there is EITHER real growth or else there is SPICE flows, aka over abundant Caymanista liquidity finds a Jack's beanstalk (some infinite asset klass) that climbs to the Moon.

If you can't have the real thing of gold NOR the virtual thing of fiat gold dust what do you do but fling yourself from your Oligarchy penthouse roof! 

What a bitch is Oppenheimer toy's legacy.

When the Kings of the Heap  can't USE the damn thing in Armageddon, to kill their rivals of Troy.

As then there will be no Oligarchs nor penthouses; nor a bean stalk to leave to your Anna Annisimovas or Paris Hiltons! Just black matter after black spot curse. No Treasure Island there! 

Oh the curse of the Atreus to die thus in attrition and debt deflation.

Brisbane blues. Where is Crocodile D to kill those alligators in the G20 pool? 

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 14:00 | 5451853 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Why flare natural gas? Because energy is free!

What other reason can there be?

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 14:32 | 5451914 falak pema
falak pema's picture

In the aulde days, associated gas, aka gas produced with oil, was flared, as transporting and compressing it cost too much, especially if it were produced far from the consumer in some Bedouin desert...

Natural gas, aka free of oil (except light condensate), was only produced ONCE  you found a market for it (as LNG if you were an Algerian or Qatari). 

So the MAIN reason is transport costs. Whereas for OIL it is the most dense and easy form of energy to transport.

And don't tell Putin his Siberian gas is free. Unless you are a delusional Ukrainian.

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 13:26 | 5451768 sandhillexit
sandhillexit's picture

So what started out as Nuland giving Putin something else to worry about so that he would stop meddling in the ME, has now exploded into full on financial armageddon, with the Saudis driving prices down and crushing whole countries/industries.  And the smack down of a Malaysian plane with 300 Dutch people and 50 AID researchers/virus experts on board, to top the news cycle for a week in Europe and cover the Gaza debacle.  It's like Vinnie the Greek and Morrie the Accountant improvising a foreign policy.  Why do I get the impression this will all look like Newark when they are done?  

Congress weighs in very soon, Gulf States and Texas all pick up committee chairs.  

California should be building a strategic reserve in the mountains.  

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 15:09 | 5452003 Hongcha
Hongcha's picture

My porto is chock full of exactly what is gettiing creamed.  I tire of looking any more.

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 13:36 | 5451788 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

This is kicking the energy enemies of the US and Saudis (i.e. Iran, Russia, Venezuela) right where it hurts. 

As I said a month ago...

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 18:49 | 5316555 Kirk2NCC1701   Vote up! 52     Vote down! -1

If I were Iran, Russia, Venezuela, Equador and China, I'd do 3 things IMMEDIATELY:

1. INDEX ("price") Oil to Gold (e.g., 1 Barrel = 2 grams of Gold), thus avoiding the USD.

2. PAY/BARTER Real Assets with Real Assets, thus avoiding the USD altogether.

3. Create the EPEC (Energy Producing & Exporting Countries) cartel, which avoids using the USD and BIS, and where Energy is from Carbon fuels (oil, gas, coal) or Electricity (hydro, nuclear, solar, wind).  Note the obvious:  That there is a LOT more demand for Energy (in all its forms) than for Oil alone, which makes the basis for Energy-backed currency a true Universal Currency.

p.s. China and Russia had better be at Defcon 3 preparedness for Bio-wars, given the extreme measures and desperation that the US-Saudi alliance is willing to deploy, and that Piecemeal-WW3 just keeps ratcheting up.

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 14:05 | 5451862 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Barter?

Why not just take the dollars and buy a ton of shit with those dollars? You sound like Yugo Chavez.

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 15:24 | 5452048 Winston of Oceania
Winston of Oceania's picture

He's obviously Canadian, blasted spooners...

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 13:38 | 5451793 syntaxterror
syntaxterror's picture

Winter is coming.

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 13:37 | 5451795 Bell's 2 hearted
Bell's 2 hearted's picture

in case anyone likes to follow such things

 

NBER (official arbiter of US recessions)

 

last 2 recessions

 

march 2001 - november 2001

december 2007 - june 2009

 

6 years 1 month between

 

currently, we're 5 years 5 months into "recovery"

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 16:45 | 5452154 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

Bell

last 2 recessions

march 2001 - november 2001

december 2007 - june 2009

Don't forget that the last recession that began in December 2007 was not communicated to the American people until December 2008.

The criminals in the Bush Administration, to help the candidacy of John McCain withheld the fact that the American economy was in recession until after the election in November 2008.

How many citizens who bought houses, expensive automobiles and invested large sums in the markets would not have done so if they had known as NBER, Treasury, the Fed, Commerce etc etc that we were in recession?

How many firms and individuals on Wall Street were told in January 2008 by their buddies in Washington that the country was in recession, thereby hinting to close out their long positions and start going short?

There are so many career federal employee criminals, that the America of song and story is twirling round and round the drain this minute.  

And America, the Military Junta, is in the wings waiting for its cue. 

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 20:21 | 5452809 daveO
daveO's picture

They gained control in November 1963, 51 yrs ago.

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 13:52 | 5451839 hairball48
hairball48's picture

Energy resources in general are "actual wealth". So oil being "actual wealth", the less oil produced by a given country results in less wealth.

Central banks and their crony bank bitches can "print" all the fiat they want. It ain't wealth

 

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 14:11 | 5451871 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

CB's are printing debt not money. Hence "plunging yields" and "negative rates" (in Europe.)

You certainly can short the recovery...those who have have been killed however. Far easier to stay long cash...not be bothered by "the debt crisis." (You debt/your problem.) Plus you have to factor in an equity bull market going on six years now. That does generate huge amounts of free cash flow (just look at tax reciepts.)

Wal Mart is an employer...

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 14:15 | 5451875 ekm1
ekm1's picture

Oil producing countries do NOT give a flying excrement that their currencies are crushed, if import prices are crushed even further due to deflation shock

 

Stop thinking in absolutes

Start thinking in relatives.

 

So, what matters is the following:

 

Are import prices falling faster than oil price?

If yes, they dont' care

If no, they have a problem.

 

This even assumes there will be actually trading going on worldwide, which is the case less and less now

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 14:41 | 5451929 U4 eee aaa
U4 eee aaa's picture

So with all those import costs going up for those nations who wants to bet that.........it will not increase their inflation rates ROTFL! JOKE'S ON US!

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 14:58 | 5451971 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

I do not believe "low oil prices" have long legs. As suddenly, out of the blue, as Saudi crashed the price of oil, some event could quickly reverse a mostly artificial price drop. Oil production costs of new wells is off the charts high. The old Saudi wells are pumping like mad to flood oil into the market and drop prices. I just don't believe this can last long term. The world is not that neat and sweet, and Saudi is not that powerful, even with the USA backing it.

Congress is in love with fracking, Canada in love with tar sands, these prices bring the angel of death into those operations. Many frackers were marginal at the $80 level, falling from there, the debt servicing costs, along with all the transport and input costs. Nope, it may last awhile, but not for long.

Oil producers are no doubt "war gaming" this low price scenario right this very moment, and looking for their chance to short circuit the USA/Saudi attempt to break Oil Produces backs.

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 20:25 | 5452823 daveO
daveO's picture

SA can get by for 7 years on it's savings, according to an article I read here a few weeks ago. I'm sure the banksters expect Putin to be gone by then.

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 15:13 | 5452017 jacship
jacship's picture

IT'S WHAT HAPPENS THEN THEY PRINT TO MUCH MONEY

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 16:05 | 5452150 devo
devo's picture

CTRL+p

Sat, 11/15/2014 - 18:31 | 5452520 limacon
limacon's picture

About to get worse due to unfriendly action .

 

Major religious trouble brewing in Ethiopia-MiddleEast .

Think "stealing the Ka'aaba" 

All currencies affected . 

 

Raiders of the-not-so-lost Ark . This happened 14 Nov 2014 , two days ago . 

http://worldnewsdailyreport.com/ethiopia-ark-of-covenant-reported-stolen...

Somebody is stirring it in a major way .

This theft is going to infuriate Christians , Jews , Islam , North Africa , Saudi's ,  etc 

The fall-out is only just starting .

 

See 

http://andreswhy.blogspot.com/2014/01/fall-of-aksum.html

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!