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Abenomics Officially Leads Japan Into A Triple-Dip Recession - Weather Blamed; Nikkei Drops 600 Points, Back Below 17,000
UPDATE: The crazy-talk is out already...
- AMARI: ABENOMICS HASN'T FAILED
- SUGA: INVENTORIES, WEATHER, CONSUMER MINDSET CAUSED GDP FALL
The Nikkei 225 has now dropped 600 points from the post-GDP highs and is back below 17,000
As the BoJ pump fades...
and S&P futures are weak...
* * *
Japanese GDP fell for the 2nd quarter in a row making it official - as we warned a month ago - that Japan has entered a triple-dip recession. Againstr hope-strewn expectations that the rebound from a sales-tax-driven slump would create a magical 2.2% (annualized) expansion, Japanese GDP slumped 1.6% in Q3 - missing by the most since March 2011. So no tax increase... and thus fiscal responsibility goes out the window. Abe dissolves government and bails on another failure? The initial kneejerk reaction sent USDJPY surging back over 117.00 (and NKY followed) but that has quickly reversed and NKY futures are 600 off their highs (and S&P futures are back near last Monday's lows).
Abenomics - FTMFW!!!
Missing by the most in 42 months!!
The sell-side "nailed it"
The full breakdown...
Which left this reaction...
and S&P futures tumbled
We can't wait for the spin... buy Japanese satocks because they are in recession which means so much more pent-up demand when Abenomics really works? Oh and by the way... Kuroda just fired his biggest bazooka ever so don't expect any monetary policy reaction to this.
Charts: Bloomberg
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Somehow, this is Bullish.
This is Bullish, period.
Bullishtakodumpo
When it gets serious...
No matter how much you whip grandma by deflating her currency - she still isnt going to make Japanese cameras and camcorders any faster.
that should not make me laugh. but it did.
OBAMA TELLS FURGESON RADICALS TO (KEEP BURNING, RIOTING) STAY COURSE
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2014/11/obama-meets-with-ferguson-activi...
"Abenomics FTMFW!"
For those, like myself, too old to know all the acronyms, it means "For The Mother Fucking Win". Tylers- leave the cursing to us motherfuckers in the peanut gallery, please. Seriously. Play it clean. We'll take care of filling in the 4-letter words for you. Ain't no shortage of them out here.
"The full break-down..."
What follows is in JAPANESE, for the love of God. Do you think I can read JAPANESE?? Fuck no. Is the shit in the right hand column the same motherfucking shit listed in the left hand column? No fucking idea.
Podcast Infotrap: Anthony Freda’s 9/11 Truth art accepted in official museum, remixes Kim Kardashian pic
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DiggingDeepHolesDeeperHolesDeeper
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DebtBasedCurrencyDebtBasedCurrency
SnakeOilSnakeOilSnakeoilSnakeOilSnakeOil
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Short Mitsubishi Corp then....
Who has the Samuri Balls of Steel on ZH?
jb
Nice one TIS!
DavidC
Listen.
Yes, excellent comment. "OUTSTANDING". Quality is his Job One and he delivered.
Nobody lives through a nuclear disaster and comes out the other side unharmed, no accounting trick can conceal this.
NoDebt,
RH Column Titles are the English versions of the LH Titles.
The Dumbass Spreadsheet Monkey (ex-Financial Systems Analyst / Financial Reporting-Planning-Analysis Apps Developer / Paymaster / US Treasury Agent / CFO of a Small Military Base talking here) who designed this should have just moved the RH Header next to the Japanese Titles.
I'm fluent in Japanese; but that's because I was born, raised, and stationed there as a 2nd Gen US Navy Vet.
BTW, JPN's going to have another set of Parliamentary Elections next month - Abe just called for it.
The fun/exciting part? With the recently announced (unexpected) Negative GDP Numbers, EVERY Political Opposition Party has smelled Blood in the Waters; and their Leaders/Spokesheads have all taken very eager "Public Defecations" - er - Denunciations over the Abenomics Scheme on National TV.
They're even talking about postponing the VAT increase to 10% by one year due to this morning's announcements.
I wouldn't be surprised if the LDP loses some seats here; but I don't think the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) will muster a Majority - they Buttocked Up the Futenma Base Closure. (It's right smack dab in the middle of a Residential Area - that would NEVER happen INCONUS.) The Jarines need to Shut Up; and Shack Up with the Chair Force at a nearby Base if they want to stay.
Of course, with the Osprey (the problematic Tilt Rotor Racket Craft) having such a long range, it CAN ferry back and forth from Guam. So WHY do they need another Base in Okinawa, when TEAM_USA already took up 40% of the choicest lands; and continued to allow its thugs and rapists to escape the Rule of Law(Transferring them instead of Prosecuting them along with the Govt_JPN)?
In other news, an Anti-Futenma-Continuance/Relocation Candidate (ex-major of the largest city in Okinawa) just won the Gubernatorial Race in Okinawa.
Well the solution is clear, sell oil, sell gold, sell silver and but more Apple Facebook and tesla stock.
They are going to have to re-gauge the market like they did all their geiger counters..
Down is up!!
200 Clicks / second is good more clicks means less radiation!
Of coarse its bullish. Eventually they will have a positive month and everyone on CNBC will forget the past and be spewing hot Keynesian goo on each other touting the virtues of money printing like media porn stars selling astroglide.
remain calm: I gave you a down mark. You are inaccurately alluding to Keyneisan economic policies; what you are referring to is 'neo-Keynesian' economic policies as contemporary interpretations of Keynes are not the policies Lord Keynes recommended.
Keynes reccomended more governments spending in recessions (not on banks;, on infrastructure, public works) to create demand, awaken 'animal spirits'. Yet Keynes wanted govt. to create savings in the boom times so as to be able to spend in the bust times.
Today's neo Keynesians want economic stimulation in all times-boom or bust; this abominable sick intellectual mutation causes Lord Kynes to roll over in his grave.
Have you ever known a government to save during boom times? The only one I know of is Texas with its $15 billion rainy day fund
North Dakota. They keep lowering taxes and their budget is still in surplus. They have so much money in the state treasury that they created a state bank!
Fracking is the way to solvency.
Their surplus is somebody else deficit. Savings = debt. No free lunch, nowhere.
Norway, the US under Andrew Jackson in the 1830's,China, Russia, Alberta Canada,the Roman Republic to name a few.
Today's Keynesians do not accept that any economic situation is good enough. That justifies for them the continual pumping in any form available. As Obammie learned, there are no shovel ready jobs that will be approved by ALL of the NIMBYs.
If a government were to reduce stimulus and actually run a surplus to repay debt, it could possibly cause someone's income to drop a bit. The pain of putting off the cell phone upgrade might cause a change of a vote or two. One of Obama's stated benefits from extending the Social Security tax reductions was to allow some guy to buy a pizza.
The apparent goal of the current Keynesians is to create a situation where everyone of the benefit programs can hire their own personal illegal alien invader.
Augustus: you are 100% correct. To separate Keynesian theory to its contemporary mutation call it, 'neo-Keynesian'.
Totally bullish! Bullish that the real shitstorm will get going finally.
http://hedgeaccordingly.com/2014/11/g-20-aims-to-boost-its-gdp-2-by-2018...
Go figure bob - if the population increases 2% a year and the GDP increases 0.5% / year then the standard of living was diluted 1.5% / year.
.. This is not growth ..
Bullardish. Here's why. The Fed will now join the BOJ in buying JGB and the NIKKEI and the BOJ will recriprocate in the US markets.
Burrish. You spell it wlong.
Burrish sounds like Mexico will bring a bowl of cocaine and some burritos to the whole party..
CNBS will spin this as encouraging more QE and any S&P dip will vanish within five Screaming Cramer Minutes.
PC madness: comet genius attacked for wearing 'kinky' shirt during press conference
http://tinyurl.com/pxt867f
The yen is worth about as much as an ash yam is to a nord in solstheim. i.e. - jack and shit and jack just left town.
Come to dust!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qPkn656Utco
Time to change the GDP deflator...again...
Bonzai*!!
*http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Bonzai
another Sunday night of bearish hopes... then waking up to green futures and Cramer's smirking face on CNBS
I assume, Squiddy, you’re probably thinking (and I concur) that given Japan’s fucked-ness was well-known as the reason for their ‘stimulus’, universally celebrated in stocks, it’s hard to imagine a big downdraft pre-FOMC this week, given the Yellen worship by the machines, just to see if she adds any “Europe and Asia’s Screwed” language to the statement.
But given the odd stasis since the Japan gap up, where only early and late vertical VIX slams daily kept us afloat, it certainly seemed those thinking “I’m not buying this shit” for once equaled those embracing “Ya can’t sell this shit.”
So, I think it’s more likely we see a big down Monday open, annoyingly useless for daytraders, but strategic for the machines, which will mark the low of a standard prey-FOMC algo tracer route, and then be goosed relentlessly through Tuesday afternoon back to the levels of last week’s highs. On Wednesday, after hanging out in the middle of this range pre-2:00, they’ll make a break in one direction at 2:29, after first taking out the day’s highs/lows in the standard whipsaw chicanery while they text-parse their hexadecimal asses off using Scrabble-style algorithms.
So, I agree with you on overall substance, but respectfully disagree on your green timing for dawn.
If by big down you mean 0.3-0.5 then yep... Wouldnt bet on it being red by 11:30 though. Pavlovs dogs are conditioned to by the fed meeting.
I'm long 'Buy! Buy! Buy!' buttons..
Now time for Japan to do something really stupid. Oh wait...
Don't underestimate their ability to do something even more stupid. The solution is to give the government even more power and control over our lives so they can really fuck us up
Whatever they are thinking of, has been tried, and doesn't work.
Then they'll double down on what wasn't working.
Listen Zero's.
Santa is on his "WAY".
Japan and it's leaders are an enigma to me. They seem to be pleasant, intelligent people who supposedly want the best for Japan. Their poliices are insane and I have never seen such a doomed country or people.
1. Debt is astronmical.
2. Eveything they do will make everything worse. It seems like they always select the wrong course of action.
3. Terrible demographics.
4. Fukishima will never be fixed. Chernobyl by comparison was fixed 100%.
5. Lots of business competition from other Asian countries.
6. No natural resources.
7. Nasty Asian neighborhood where everyone hates everyone due to thousands of years of mutual genocide.
8. Organized crime has it's hands in everything.
Really depressing.
When the end result is the same as it would have been if you tried nothing, why not throw the kitchen sink at the problem, you literally have nothing to lose....except everything...and you bought a lot of time and a lot of people will be rich enough to ignore the consequences. For alot of people, the great depression was a great time to enjoy cheap labor.
All true, but on the other hand – schoolgirl panties!
Freddie #7 is incorrect. Even Kublai Khan was not able to reach Japan in the 13th ecentury because of the Kamikaze winds that eradicated his fleet, army. Japan has never sufffered genocide from 'outsiders'.
The genocide is entirely one way Japanese against the Chinese, Vietneese, Koreans, Indonesians et al.
No country, except, the US, has ever invaded China
Uh, didn't they just invest half their pensioners' money in Twitter or something?
The two biggest equities investors in Japan are the Japanese pension plan and the BOJ
What's really scary is the {yen} surplus export trade "safe haven" trade is starting lose it's correlation with "risk off".
Good news is taken as a reason to sell yen, and bad news is taken as a reason to sell yen. (Not Good)
The SNB has a shitload of problems to deal with now. Not only will the CHF strengthen over the gold repatriation vote, but traders will be looking for safe haven currency trades. With the $usd so over bought the CHF is the obvious choice .
$ is just warming up watch....... 1.20 or less by Christmas... Your ignoring the carry trades.... who wants to be stuck in Euros and a negative interest rate? USD best grapefruit in the dump
The $usd is going to retrace this week my friend. Just some friendly advice.
The usd/jpy is in a blow-off top scenario. (short term)
Yen debasement express has only just begun, regardless of blips.
I was expecting USD/JPY of 120:1 by mid 2015, but it very well could hit this level by early December, and 130:1 to even 140:1 by May-June.
Japan is FUBAR (frucked up-r beyond arr recognrition)
A blow off top can not be retraced.
BTFD
WHAT DIP?
Triple Dip sounds about right in describing Abe, Kuroda and the unhealthy failed State of Japan. Fuck knows what magic box of toxic mush Goldman et al have rammed up the Nips vagina monologues. It be Bad Blood i tell ye me hearties! Sink you fuckers and bring down the House of Vermin.
It's just the consequence of poorly understood monetarism.
QE 4.0 to buy student debt and an expanded Fannie/Freddie portfolio of sub-prime mortgages.
They will push this to the edge of known sanity and beyond.
Summon Buzzed Litebeer to the FED!
How about QE 5.0 to pay anyone over 50 to retire early. I'd love to sit on my ass and watch this blow up.
In Japan is it not QEY?
That must be the 3 arrows, thingy... yeah..
you can always print moar tyler! hahahaha
Imodium watch in effect.
2007 redux! Guess who's next?
I guess those Capsule Hotels:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capsule_hotel
are out of vogue.
-25% drop in RE. Ouch.
That's why they're going to have anothe set of Elections next month.
Their problems could be solved by starting to use Blow, and import some Ukrainian hookers.... There positive GDP.
In an economy where the average citizen is 70... Now how about some Russian off-market viagra?
Japan is done. Stick a fork in it. Hyperinflation is in order soon.
First comes a sharp bout of deflation followed by the helicopter drop to the bankers.
You got it! Pm's to skyrocket.
Do have an election coming up apparently. Also "Japan exports deflation" is a total canard. Where will their cheap inputs come from if their currency collapses?
Perhaps if the Japanese would just smile more, they will avoid this recession. Afterall, if it can mitigate the effects of radiation, surely it can levitate an economy, right?
In all truth, I feel for the Japanese people. So many problems and so little time.
The foreign creditors are the one demanding the tax increase. Something similar happened in the USA when California said it would pay its public employees in IOU's. After about two weeks BofA said they wouldn't accept that and that was the end of that.
Clearly the tax increase is off the table. What's the threat the Banks will execute on then?
That's bunk, they have no external debt, it's all internal, they owe themselves their own money. So to say foreigners are applying financial pressure is absurd. You live in a strange world, one schedualed to collapse soon, hope you are prepared.
Someone should just euthanize the Japanese economy already out of mercy for regular Japanese people. This is where too big to fail turns into too corrupt to go on living.
Listen.
It's the prototype for the USSA, dontcha want to see what happens? Let's keep it alive for just a little while longer. I'm going to get some more popcorn.
Japan is ok. Everything is going as per plan.
They want to destroy the savings or retirees and make them die faster.
Abe is a nationalist and fears China rise. He wants to be the one who started revitalization of Japan.
It's all fine, as per current plans
Sounds like a great plan - except none of the young generation are fucking or having kids..
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/20/young-people-japan-stopped-...
Who do they plan on manning the camcorder and disposable camera factories in the future?
"Japan's under-40s appear to be losing interest in conventional relationships. Millions aren't even dating, and increasing numbers can't be bothered with sex. For their government, "celibacy syndrome" is part of a looming national catastrophe. Japan already has one of the world's lowest birth rates. Its population of 126 million, which has been shrinking for the past decade, is projected to plunge a further one-third by 2060. Aoyama believes the country is experiencing "a flight from human intimacy" – and it's partly the government's fault."
GDP typically is 70% derived (Harry Dent) from it's population, 33% reduction * 70% = 23% reduction in GDP by 2060.
There country is dying -
Meanwhile over in Africa...
They are as light as a feather, just outlaw sumo wrestling and get a few of those cats to tend to the whole ward, problem solved.
I think the better question is who is going to service our fat pigs when it's their time to collect their just dues? Not me, that's for sure.
Aye,the Haggis is in the fire now,for sure.
Some jerkoff was just being interviewed on Bloomberg (8:40pm est) saying Abe has a mandate to shake up the economy...its just that he has not done it yet! Kuroda has done all he can providing liquidity, now Abe must get to work. We are so screwed! Well Japan first, and then unfortunatley the rest of us (and we are all to blame, Japan is just first domino).
Well Japan first, and then unfortunatley the rest of us (and we are all to blame, Japan is just first domino).
The Federal Reserve's grand Japanese hyper-print experiment goes kaput.
Obama will then go into his passive way of speaking and when the US economy crashes say that it has nothing to do with him, he's just a bystander and he doesn't know that Abe fellow anyway.
"Triple dip recovery"
That made me LOL...
KYLE BASS for PRIME MINISTER IS ON THE CLOCK.....
It's cool that both Japan and the EU got to where they're going before we in the US repeated the same mistakes. Oh, wait ... (H/T to Laughinggrizzley)
Nikkei getting a proper hosing now, -2% and still looking for a bottom. Can Kuroda's nose candy have lost its thrill so soon?
I don't understand. Paul Krugman said: "For now, here’s what you should know: Japan used to be a cautionary tale, but the rest of us have messed up so badly that it almost looks like a role model instead." As Vizzini would tell you, a triple dip recession would be inconceivable.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/31/opinion/paul-krugman-apologizing-to-ja...
(If the NY Times gives you crap about your last free article just look at it in a private/incognito window.)
I agree with Krugman's call to doubling, tripling our rate of printing, but only if it's actually printed on paper and we get to bury him alive under several tons of it
Is currency not flammable? LOL. (Also $2B in Benjamins will max out an 18 wheeler, so you're being a bit excessive.)
We've gotta make sure this is done right, his Keynesian armies will dig him out of there otherwise, you know, the ones he said we should have digging up stashes of USD that other people buried so that we reach "full employment" and can forever fend off deflation
You know, I really wish Krugman would give us specific, critiqueable numbers, in terms of exactly how much money he thinks central banks should inject into the economies of various countries, so that there was a way to definitively illustrate what a dangerous moron he is by way of refuting how idiotic his suggested policies are. It is telling that he confines his editorials to vagueries.
Actually, the use of real physical paper is the only thing that will solve the problem.
The problem being debt, and physical paper money being able to pay down multiple debts without being extinguished itself.
QE on the other hand is the idiocy of trying to solve a debt problem with more debt.
This was expected. Japan continues to slide towards an economic abyss with each passing day. The writing is on the wall. Japan is facing a wall of debt that can only be addressed by printing more money and debasing their currency. This means paying off their debt with worthless yen where possible and in many cases defaulting on promises made. Japan's public debt, which stands at around 230% of its GDP and is the highest in the industrialized world.
The moment the Japaneses stock market fails to rise enough to offset inflation this will turn into a tsunami of money fleeing Japan and constitute the end of the line for those left holding both JGBs and the yen. This has been a long time coming and I contend the cross-border flow of money leaving Japan is why some stock markets have remained so resilient . When Japan crumbles it will be felt across the world. More on this subject in the article below.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/05/japan-sliding-towards-abyss.html
What beggars belief is how Japan has lasted this long.
I thought they were sunk over a decade ago.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zfBG0d5Oj3c
I disagree - it must be deleveraged. Write off all the debts government debts and just set it back to zero. The government should not be a institute that borrows anything.
Sorry grandma you'll have to make camcorders and cheap disposable cameras till you are 80 and die..
The Fedcoats are going to have to start confiscating US citizen assets if they want to rachet up QE yet again. The 'wealth' gap is closing in on all-time highs, and I can honestly say most of that gap is due to the bubblicious impact of QE on equity valuations. Paper assets will be the easiest to tax/take. I like land over gold, because you can live on it, hide on it, and shoot over it.
Only one thing left to do, let the YEN drop like a rock...
If a 3% tax increase is the cause of all this, then with the yen at 117 it's a sinch that the Japanse are not anxious to buy anything American or, since the yuan is pegged to the dollar, anything from China either. Since they don't have Christmas to shop for, Q4 should be very interesting, especiall if the yen falls to 120+.
Chinese will soon have to devalue the Yuan to compete with devalued Japanese Yen. All of the Japanese competitors in asia will get in the davaluation game or lose out to the Japanese mercantilists.
The only way to fix the Japan mess is to destroy them. The Japanese central bank should be dissolved tomorrow and go from there.
Zombie Banks Zombie Corporations Zombie Populace allowing their Pensions to be invested in Zombie Banks Zombie Corporations . . .
GM is investing in the Moooveees.
Packaging several blockbusters. Move to diversify away from Automobile Technology
TOTAL RECALL 6
A FISTFUL OF RECALLS
RETURN TO BROKEBACK RECALL
THE GOOD THE BAD AND FUCK ME ANOTHER RECALL
GUESS WHOSE COMING TO ASK FOR ANOTHER BAILOUT?
coming to a cinema near you
that! made me LOL..
James Bullard is probably saying: " Oh Fuck, Looks like I'll be doing another interview with Bloomberg this week to juice the markets some more. "
The NIkkei is starting to look like the ES and DoW after London closes during the NY session. The PPT jumped in and bought NKY @ 17k and usd/jpy got saved. (for now)
Listen Cross.
It must suck having the Asian Bird Flu. The constant fever killing brain cells and dampening reasonable thought.
What a bunch of amateurs. Don't they know they are supposed to lie about their GDP numbers?
Investors and other fools are watching the Japanese stock market theatre with the curiosity of a deer frozen by headlights. This can only end in disaster and anyone who thinks the show will go on is sorely testing both their luck and their fate.
Equally intriguing is the view and actions of planners who believe that a rising stock market can overcome the plethora of structural and other issues confronting Japan.
Watch out for full kamikaze printing dead ahead.
Following Keynes models the solution is simple.
MOAR PRINTING! MOAR! MOAR! MOAAAAAAAAR!
BIGGER BIGGER MOAR BIGGER! MOAR BIGGERER! BIGGERER!
So now Japan can take the blame for other economies collapsing
This is like the modern day Pearl Harbor moment
Hpw long to fuel up the Enola Gay?
Nikkei may have plunged 600 points, roughly a 20% retracement of the near 3000 points gained since Oct 17 and causing no technical damage whatsoever to the chart from the gap up on 4th November. Nikkei is already back at 17082 and as mentioned by the first two posts, this is likely to be bullish action
Nikkei well back over 17k...that lasted all of a minute
With apologies to Kyle Reese: "Listen, and understand. The laws of economics are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And they absolutely will not stop, ever, until you are destitute."
Japan's new plan is simple . They want to switch
the pension money out of yen ( via BOJ) and into foreign
bonds / equities so foreign countries tax's / corporates
service the Japanese pensions .
The Fed/ Ecb must be able to see this . I suspect they will
crash the yen ( then JGB's ) to show who's
in charge .
The BOJ pays the interest back to the Govt so BOJ
owned is different to non BOJ.
The cutting of pension payments in japan has been large .
Also see China free trade agreement with Korea / Australia
in last few weeks . China will decide who they trade with at low
duties, and Japan will be left on the higher rates for weakening the yen
( same with US no free trade agreement for Japan).
So yes they have fucked up in that they thought their was nothing
China /US/EU could do but slowly they are seeing things
have changed agreements are coming quck.
Ie there was suppose to be trilateral agreement between
Japan / china / Korea up until 2013 ( Kuroda).
Now Korea / china made free trade agreement without Japan
So to sum it up their going to lose trade because they
didn't play the game properly this will lead to a weak yen
with no export improvement .
It's a global debt bubble that everyone will feel eventually. Japan will not escape the growing deflationary vortex. The surprise is that it hasn't occurred sooner.
http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/anatomy-of-a-bubble-how-the-federal-r...
Maybe the Russian Japanese cashless deal will help?
http://newworldorderg20.wordpress.com/2014/11/14/japan-credit-bureau-working-with-russian-banks-on-payment-cards-cashless-society/
or the new Nat Gas plant in Trukmenistan
http://newworldorderg20.wordpress.com/2014/11/14/japans-bank-for-international-cooperation-jbic-will-fund-new-gas-plant-in-russian-stronghold-turkmenistan/
or Muslim tourists
http://newworldorderg20.wordpress.com/2014/11/13/japan-now-a-destination-for-muslim-tourists/
there's also the Chinese everybody likes
http://newworldorderg20.wordpress.com/2014/11/09/chinese-investment-in-japanese-real-estate-climbs-sharply-just-like-in-the-u-s/
weather again? expect a long cold winter here then....
Quick do what Paul Krugman and the Neo-Kensyians tells you to! Oh wait thats why their in this mess in the first place.