Abenomics Officially Leads Japan Into A Triple-Dip Recession - Weather Blamed; Nikkei Drops 600 Points, Back Below 17,000

Tyler Durden's picture

UPDATE: The crazy-talk is out already...

  • AMARI: ABENOMICS HASN'T FAILED
  • SUGA: INVENTORIES, WEATHER, CONSUMER MINDSET CAUSED GDP FALL

The Nikkei 225 has now dropped 600 points from the post-GDP highs and is back below 17,000

 

As the BoJ pump fades...

 

and S&P futures are weak...

 

*  *  *

Japanese GDP fell for the 2nd quarter in a row making it official - as we warned a month ago - that Japan has entered a triple-dip recession. Againstr hope-strewn expectations that the rebound from a sales-tax-driven slump would create a magical 2.2% (annualized) expansion, Japanese GDP slumped 1.6% in Q3 - missing by the most since March 2011. So no tax increase... and thus fiscal responsibility goes out the window. Abe dissolves government and bails on another failure? The initial kneejerk reaction sent USDJPY surging back over 117.00 (and NKY followed) but that has quickly reversed and NKY futures are 600 off their highs (and S&P futures are back near last Monday's lows).

 

Abenomics - FTMFW!!!

 

Missing by the most in 42 months!!

 

The sell-side "nailed it"

 

The full breakdown...

 

Which left this reaction...

 

and S&P futures tumbled

 

We can't wait for the spin... buy Japanese satocks because they are in recession which means so much more pent-up demand when Abenomics really works? Oh and by the way... Kuroda just fired his biggest bazooka ever so don't expect any monetary policy reaction to this.

 

Charts: Bloomberg

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AccreditedEYE's picture

Somehow, this is Bullish.

SoberOne's picture

When it gets serious...

cnmcdee's picture

No matter how much you whip grandma by deflating her currency -  she still isnt going to make Japanese cameras and camcorders any faster.

 

infinity8's picture

that should not make me laugh. but it did.

NoDebt's picture

"Abenomics FTMFW!"

For those, like myself, too old to know all the acronyms, it means "For The Mother Fucking Win".  Tylers- leave the cursing to us motherfuckers in the peanut gallery, please.  Seriously.  Play it clean.  We'll take care of filling in the 4-letter words for you.  Ain't no shortage of them out here.  

"The full break-down..."

What follows is in JAPANESE, for the love of God.  Do you think I can read JAPANESE??  Fuck no.  Is the shit in the right hand column the same motherfucking shit listed in the left hand column?  No fucking idea.

TruthInSunshine's picture

KrugmanomicsKrugmanomicsKrugmanomics

DiggingDeepHolesDeeperHolesDeeper
SnakesEatingTheirOwnTailsOwnTailsTails
BrokenWindowsStimulusBrokenWindows
BlowAnotherBubbleBlowAnotherBubble
ShamanismShamanismShamanismShaman
DebtBasedCurrencyDebtBasedCurrency
SnakeOilSnakeOilSnakeoilSnakeOilSnakeOil
AlienInvasionPreparednessAlienInvasionAlien
BlackHoleBlackHoleBlackHoleBlackHoleHole

JamesBond's picture

Short Mitsubishi Corp then....

 

 

Who has the Samuri Balls of Steel on ZH?

 

jb

Bangalore Equity Trader's picture

Listen.

Yes, excellent comment. "OUTSTANDING". Quality is his Job One and he delivered.

IronForge's picture

NoDebt,

RH Column Titles are the English versions of the LH Titles.

The Dumbass Spreadsheet Monkey (ex-Financial Systems Analyst / Financial Reporting-Planning-Analysis Apps Developer / Paymaster / US Treasury Agent / CFO of a Small Military Base talking here) who designed this should have just moved the RH Header next to the Japanese Titles.

I'm fluent in Japanese; but that's because I was born, raised, and stationed there as a 2nd Gen US Navy Vet.

IronForge's picture

BTW, JPN's going to have another set of Parliamentary Elections next month - Abe just called for it.

The fun/exciting part?  With the recently announced (unexpected) Negative GDP Numbers, EVERY Political Opposition Party has smelled Blood in the Waters; and their Leaders/Spokesheads have all taken very eager "Public Defecations" - er - Denunciations over the Abenomics Scheme on National TV.

They're even talking about postponing the VAT increase to 10% by one year due to this morning's announcements.

I wouldn't be surprised if the LDP loses some seats here; but I don't think the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) will muster a Majority - they Buttocked Up the Futenma Base Closure. (It's right smack dab in the middle of a Residential Area - that would NEVER happen INCONUS.)  The Jarines need to Shut Up; and Shack Up with the Chair Force at a nearby Base if they want to stay.

Of course, with the Osprey (the problematic Tilt Rotor Racket Craft) having such a long range, it CAN ferry back and forth from Guam.  So WHY do they need another Base in Okinawa, when TEAM_USA already took up 40% of the choicest lands; and continued to allow its thugs and rapists to escape the Rule of Law(Transferring them instead of Prosecuting them along with the Govt_JPN)?

In other news, an Anti-Futenma-Continuance/Relocation Candidate (ex-major of the largest city in Okinawa) just won the Gubernatorial Race in Okinawa.

TheRideNeverEnds's picture

Well the solution is clear, sell oil, sell gold, sell silver and but more Apple Facebook and tesla stock.

cnmcdee's picture

They are going to have to re-gauge the market like they did all their geiger counters..

 

Down is up!!

200 Clicks / second is good more clicks means less radiation!

remain calm's picture

Of coarse its bullish. Eventually they will have a positive month and everyone on CNBC will forget the past and be spewing hot Keynesian goo on each other touting the virtues of money printing like media porn stars selling astroglide.

oudinot's picture

remain calm: I gave you a down mark.  You are inaccurately alluding to Keyneisan economic policies; what you are referring to is 'neo-Keynesian' economic policies as contemporary interpretations of Keynes are not the policies Lord Keynes recommended.

Keynes reccomended more governments spending in recessions (not on banks;, on infrastructure, public works) to create demand, awaken 'animal spirits'.  Yet Keynes wanted govt. to create savings in the boom times so as to be able to spend in the bust times.

Today's neo Keynesians want economic stimulation in all times-boom or bust; this abominable sick intellectual  mutation  causes Lord Kynes to roll over in his grave.

sun tzu's picture

Have you ever known a government to save during boom times? The only one I know of is Texas with its $15 billion rainy day fund

pgroup's picture

North Dakota. They keep lowering taxes and their budget is still in surplus. They have so much money in the state treasury that they created a state bank!

Fracking is the way to solvency.

Bunga Bunga's picture

Their surplus is somebody else deficit. Savings = debt. No free lunch, nowhere.

oudinot's picture

Norway, the US under Andrew Jackson in the 1830's,China, Russia, Alberta Canada,the Roman Republic to name a few.

Augustus's picture

Today's Keynesians do not accept that any economic situation is good enough.  That justifies for them the continual pumping in any form available.  As Obammie learned, there are no shovel ready jobs that will be approved by ALL of the NIMBYs.

If a government were to reduce stimulus and actually run a surplus to repay debt, it could possibly cause someone's income to drop a bit.  The pain of putting off the cell phone upgrade might cause a change of a vote or two.  One of Obama's stated benefits from extending the Social Security tax reductions was to allow some guy to buy a pizza.

The apparent goal of the current Keynesians is to create a situation where everyone of the benefit programs can hire their own personal illegal alien invader.

oudinot's picture

Augustus: you are 100% correct.  To separate Keynesian theory to its contemporary mutation call it, 'neo-Keynesian'.

indygo55's picture

Totally bullish! Bullish that the real shitstorm will get going finally. 

cnmcdee's picture

Go figure bob - if the population increases 2% a year and the GDP increases 0.5% / year then the standard of living was diluted 1.5% / year.

.. This is not growth ..

sun tzu's picture

Bullardish. Here's why. The Fed will now join the BOJ in buying JGB and the NIKKEI and the BOJ will recriprocate in the US markets. 

upWising's picture

Burrish.  You spell it wlong.

cnmcdee's picture

Burrish sounds like Mexico will bring a bowl of cocaine and some burritos to the whole party..

Bloppy's picture

CNBS will spin this as encouraging more QE and any S&P dip will vanish within five Screaming Cramer Minutes.

 

PC madness: comet genius attacked for wearing 'kinky' shirt during press conference

http://tinyurl.com/pxt867f


Aeternus's picture

The yen is worth about as much as an ash yam is to a nord in solstheim. i.e. - jack and shit and jack just left town.

Come to dust!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qPkn656Utco

The Most Interesting Frog in the World's picture

Time to change the GDP deflator...again...

Squid Viscous's picture

another Sunday night of bearish hopes... then waking up to green futures and Cramer's smirking face on CNBS

Keltner Channel Surf's picture

I assume, Squiddy, you’re probably thinking (and I concur) that given Japan’s fucked-ness was well-known as the reason for their ‘stimulus’, universally celebrated in stocks, it’s hard to imagine a big downdraft pre-FOMC this week, given the Yellen worship by the machines, just to see if she adds any “Europe and Asia’s Screwed” language to the statement.  

But given the odd stasis since the Japan gap up, where only early and late vertical VIX slams daily kept us afloat, it certainly seemed those thinking “I’m not buying this shit” for once equaled those embracing “Ya can’t sell this shit.”  

So, I think it’s more likely we see a big down Monday open, annoyingly useless for daytraders, but strategic for the machines, which will mark the low of a standard prey-FOMC algo tracer route, and then be goosed relentlessly through Tuesday afternoon back to the levels of last week’s highs.   On Wednesday, after hanging out in the middle of this range pre-2:00, they’ll make a break in one direction at 2:29, after first taking out the day’s highs/lows in the standard whipsaw chicanery while they text-parse their hexadecimal asses off using Scrabble-style algorithms.

So, I agree with you on overall substance, but respectfully disagree on your green timing for dawn.

gatorengineer's picture

If by big down you mean 0.3-0.5 then yep... Wouldnt bet on it being red by 11:30 though.  Pavlovs dogs are conditioned to by the fed meeting.

cnmcdee's picture

I'm long 'Buy! Buy! Buy!' buttons..

Laughinggrizzley's picture

Now time for Japan to do something really stupid. Oh wait...

sun tzu's picture

Don't underestimate their ability to do something even more stupid. The solution is to give the government even more power and control over our lives so they can really fuck us up

upWising's picture

Whatever they are thinking of,  has been tried, and doesn't work.

sun tzu's picture

Then they'll double down on what wasn't working. 

Bangalore Equity Trader's picture

Listen Zero's.

Santa is on his "WAY".

Freddie's picture

Japan and it's leaders are an enigma to me.  They seem to be pleasant, intelligent people who supposedly want the best for Japan.  Their poliices are insane and I have never seen such a doomed country or people.

1. Debt is astronmical.

2. Eveything they do will make everything worse.  It seems like they always select the wrong course of action.

3. Terrible demographics.

4. Fukishima will never be fixed.  Chernobyl by comparison was fixed 100%.

5. Lots of business competition from other Asian countries.

6. No natural resources.

7. Nasty Asian neighborhood where everyone hates everyone due to thousands of years of mutual genocide.

8. Organized crime has it's hands in everything.

Really depressing.

 

ThirdCoastSurfer's picture

When the end result is the same as it would have been if you tried nothing, why not throw the kitchen sink at the problem, you literally have nothing to lose....except everything...and you bought a lot of time and a lot of people will be rich enough to ignore the consequences. For alot of people, the great depression was a great time to enjoy cheap labor. 

Tinky's picture

All true, but on the other hand – schoolgirl panties!

oudinot's picture

Freddie #7 is incorrect.  Even Kublai Khan was not able to reach Japan in the 13th ecentury because of the Kamikaze winds that eradicated his fleet, army.  Japan has never sufffered genocide from 'outsiders'.

The genocide is entirely one way  Japanese against the Chinese, Vietneese, Koreans, Indonesians et al.

No country, except, the US, has ever invaded China

vincent's picture

Uh, didn't they just invest half their pensioners' money in Twitter or something?