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Carl Icahn: "One Day You'll See A Break Like A Few Weeks Ago But The Market Won't Come Back"
It seems Carl Icahn will not be going activist on the S&P500 after all.
During the Reuters Investment Outlook Summit in New York on Monday, the 78 year old billionaire said that "I am still concerned that one day you'll see a break like you had a few weeks ago but it won't come back."
Of course, that would suggest no more central bank interventions, of the verbal Bullard-kind, or otherwise. In other words, either the Fed losing control or losing all credibility with the market, at which point a stock market downturn would be the least of anyone's worries.
And while most have dismissed the October near correction in the market, Icahn said he is more concerned and is predicting a downturn. "It's really a question of when that is going to happen, in my opinion. It could be three years, it could be three months, it could be three days. But I really do believe there will be a major correction in the next three to five years, at least."
Of course, with an interval of that length, the S&P may well be north of 3000, 4000 or even 5000 by then so the question becomes will the market then be like CYNK, when it climbed to record highs on no volume only to plummet on a sudden spike once the realization that the entire ascent was based on momentum and euphoria fades.
So what is Icahn doing to prepare? "We short S&Ps against a very large portfolio. We have the benefit of not having to worry that much about hedge fund partners," he said, speaking at the Reuters Global Investment Outlook Summit. He also added that he likes "being a minority. I am not saying go short the market, I'm talking in general terms."
He also commented on the quality of corporate earnings, a topic we have covered extensively here in the past: "I look at these earnings and I find them to be somewhat suspect," he said. The earnings that are being reported are based on the ability of companies to borrow at very low interest rates, he said, and everybody is saying "'Everything is great'." However, he said many company executives he speaks to look at the economy and think, "it ain't what it's cracked up to be."
This is not the first time Icahn has called for a major drop:
A year ago in an interview with Reuters, Icahn helped push the market lower with his comments and he took pains this year to be careful on adding a vague timeline, noting that there are many variables he can't handicap.
He acknowledged he could be completely incorrect and the market could climb another 1,000 points. But he also pointed to his decades-long history of reading markets and making investments and said he's been right more often than he's been wrong.
Will he be right this time? Check back in 3 to 5 years. Or three months. Or three days.
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No way Carl, you see, this time it is different !!!
Carl "I Can"... You all can't...
Diversification!
The only real "freebie" in investing.
Gold & silver
Stocks & bonds
Real estate
A business
And even paying down debt
There are lots of ways to diversify...
3 to 5 years. LOL
Way to nail it down.....TOOL
Brilliant, Carl, but Jesus has been coming for 2,000 years, and he's not here yet either.
A man could grow a grey beard waiting for this to bust a nut.
Or have lost out on the opportunity to have bought a small country in the Caribbean, a 747, a hand full of senators, half of the House, be exempt from litigation and prosecution, have every regulatory body on call, be a weekly guest on CNBS and star on SharkTank
Listen.
All this positive press for this Icahn creep.
How much does he donate to The Hedge?
reptile eyes
Icahnt stand this senile mothafucka, he an his jbag buddy ackman can go fuck themselves.
Make no little plans. They have no power to stir men's blood. -
Daniel Burnham
Carl may be right, mostly big US inverters have shifted their assets to China, already.
Car's been pretty clear on the types of instruments he uses, all of which are newbie friendly.
1. debt spreader on HYG (which TD reposts a HYG correlation chart every week or so, sometimes daily)
2. SPX puts,
3. Directional calls with varying duration to hedge off specific positions which are large weights.
*(not carl, or anyone near Carl, just pointing it out since there is a time & place for rage; insight vs. random selfie comments are better to service the retail & zh newbs)
It took a long time for 2000 & 2008 to get here too. We all knew that it was inevitable, we just didn't know how grey our beards might be before it happened. This time will not be different, just way more fireworks.
You left one out.
Taking on massive debt on an asset that will do well post phase transition and the dollar drops significantly.
september 2016
Ye gods! That picture makes Dracula look like Brad Pitt in comparison!
One day I'll die, and I'll never come back again. Mark my words.
Mortal Thoughts homie, wish our elected sons and daughters shared your sentiment.
I predict the sun could come up in one hour two hours three hours four hours five hours six hours 7 hours 8 hours 9 hours 10 hours 11 hours 12 hours, it all depends where you live.
Dam I'm smart. go ahead and quote me.
So the market will go up until it goes down?
Carl,
Suck a dick.
damned lizard alien
That's racist and I resent it.
My momma said I looked a bit different when I came out, the doctor said not to worry he'd take the tail off, Father Duffy preformed the Exorcism right then and there and the electro-shock therapy and injections have worked well ever since.
you left out the angle grinder for your horns knukles !!!
Some of the older guys who have seen a lot are beginning to doubt how long or far this market can continue. That should be taken as a warning. When a fair number of people can make money on a collapse it means the end is near.
I believe ugliness lies ahead. I love the way it is always being kicked out a year or two and never going to happen tomorrow. For a long time I have been trying to develop a scenario for a market "super crash" and a reasonable map that would arrive at such a situation. Below is an article looking at how it could happen sooner rather than later.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/01/flash-crash-on-steroids.html
The problem is is all the wealth in the stock market is sitting on the balance sheets of the TBTF Banks' balance sheets and the Federal Reserve. They propped the market up taking on Trillions in debt in doing so. If you think in a Fascist Totalitarian system that they created when they hijacked America that they would assume the losses, think again...If the interest rates go up, they are fucked, if the stock market crashes, they are fucked as well. It will not happen because those who pull the puppet strings will do whatever to keep their paper wealth intact. They will continue to peck on what carcass is left of America until there is nothing left but marrowless bones... Then if they decide to let it crash it will be up to the citizens to incur the debt and they will strip the wealth away from any so fotunate to have any at that point...
The Central Bank will not allow this "Break" he speaks of. The fix is in, market value is guaranteed by central bank printing. To expect "market forces" to effect a "break" is 20th century thinking, we are in a new century. A century of central bank manipulated markets with the "wealth effect" valuation index. As the ECB says "Whatever it takes!" The Fed implies the same "Whatever it takes". Japan is already doing "Everything it takes".
It will take a cosmic event to force this market into a "break" to the downside for more than a week or two. Central bank intervention is not only anticipated by wall-street, it is expected as an explicit guarantee.
"it is expected as an explicit guarantee."
So was the Fed coming to bailout Fannie and Freddie which is why the MBS' got so bad last decade...
I don't disagree with what you're saying but the bottom line is IT WILL END and it will not be pretty. Expilict guarantees only insure that a crash will happen because it creates the horrible moral hazard that causes them.
The next bubble that bursts will be confidence in Central Banks and when it does all these people you speak of will not have any idea what to do and it will create an unprecedented level of chaos.
I donno Carl long as the BOJ and the ECB keeps buying our shit I only see DOW to 20000 S&P to 3000. Then again why you even fucking care is shit to expensive for ya to buy?
Just go broke and don't come back Carl, you old windbag, scumbag, douchebag MF'er.
<”…One day the market will drop and not come back….”> yes, but then the Fed will jawbone and then the Fed will announce QE4,5 and 6, and then the Fed will buy ETFs, futures, and stocks outright…and the markets will come back. Nothing else is acceptable.
That is exactly what we are all counting on.
Good call, Carl.
When the Levee Breaks, You got No Place to Go,.... Talk about Warren Buffet, this guy Carl has played The Fed from an OUTSIDE seat. He was around when jesus, er, Greenspan pulled 1987 out of crash mode. The rest is history...
Missiles of October 1987... https://plus.google.com/u/0/photos/107472818091222876443/albums/52553246...
I'm a BIG fan of Carl. Please consider.....
Of course, just like back in the day, this mofo is gonna be in line with his hand held out; make me whole. FUK You!
Pronounced "I Con", he's longer than a Chinese green bean or the Windows XP boot process, but wants you to get short so he can go all "guacamole': squeeze you like a lime, then smash you like an avocado.
We are in a clear asset bubble, induced by over 6 years of ever increasing central bank intervention. Anyone who can't see it is blind.
Like all prior bubbles, it is only a matter of how high is up and how long it lasts. They usually go on way longer than anyone can imagine.
Talisman @ $5.81 Today.....Carl loved it at $20, loaded up at $12...came back for more punishment at $10. I love this stock just for the tears it has caused him.
The longer this shiit show continues the more I am convinced of the coming "event". You folks are pretty smart. Do you really believe they have found out how to get around the reality of economics? These Keynsian quacks are absolutey insane. I'd say two to three years to Mad Maxx. Don't talk about reset either. The reset has already occured. They reset middle america's money into the 1%. The reset I am looking for involves pitchforks, dangleing bankers and Obamanistas.
Perception is reality. They don't have to get around the reality of economics. They have to get around the nuances of perception. So far they're winning.
I'm so bullish it huuuurts.
Well now, that was useful, wasn't it?
Back to killin' snakes
A dead clock is right twice a day too. NIce going idiot. Why is this shit even being published?
The real bubble is fiat money. The 1% by all means have it all by now, so keep stacking. Resisting is stacking.
Carl cannot be credible unless he recites the mantra. He knows better to put in caveat in not calling the "timing'.
He digs at hedge funds thus subtly promoting his VC biz. What he does not tell is that in his long impressive career, he has until lately faced the competition of HFs. He is trying hard to caricature them as just traders blind to long term trends or have no analyses of what are in VC portfolios.