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Dollar Drop Sparks BTFEverything-Except-Oil Algo

Tyler Durden's picture




 

From its lowest 5-day range in history and near-longest streak of closes above its short-term average, the S&P 500 broke to new record highs today (as did the Dow) above 2,050, leaving every other asset class in the dust (besides USDJPY of course). The incessant push for the stops above 117.00 dragged the S&P higher on no catalyst whatsoever. Treasury yields traded 2-3bps lower on the day (and HY credit spreads widened) in the face of equity exuberance. The USD faded on the day back to unchanged on the week on the back of EUR strength (post-Germany). Gold rallied to $1195 (+0.5% on the week) and silver rose modestly but the USD weakness did nothing for the rest of the commodity complex. Copper was whacked (after China housing data) but the big story is WTI Crude plunged again (-2% on the week) closing just shy of 4-year lows. Russell 2000 and Trannies close in the red for the week.

In summary: Stocks Up, Gold Up, Bonds Up... USD Down, Oil Down, Copper Down ahead of Fed Minutes tomorrow (credit and stocks protected).

Off the Bullard lows, the Nasdaq is now up over 14%, Dow, S&P, & Russell up around 12% and Trannies up near 18%...

 

Despite gains today, Trannies and Small Caps remain red on the week....

 

USDJPY was in charge from the US Open...

 

And while VIX did drop, the decoupling remains clear...

 

Here's the day in VIX and S&P 500 - note the fat finger algofests...

 

Treasury yields and HY credit decoupled remarkedly from stocks at the US open...

 

And don't forget this...

 

The USD fell today as EUR rallied on the back of better than expected German data

 

USDJPY tested up to 117.00 and reversed (twice) but Nikkei is unable to recover the post-GDP losses (yet)

 

Gold & Silver gained on the day (gold up for the week) but oil and copper were slammed...

 

As oil roundtrips once again from Friday's gains

 

Charts: Bloomberg

Bonus Chart: This is the 23rd day in a row that the S&P has closed above its 5-day moving-average - nearly an all-time high in terms of sustained rallies in all of market history... (h/t MKM's Mike Kransky)

 

Bonus Bonus Chart: Prior to today's push, the 5-day closing range of the S&P is the lowest ever (at 7.7bps) - since 1928 when Bloomberg data began... (h/t @JackDamn)

 

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Tue, 11/18/2014 - 17:07 | 5462426 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

VIX took it in the ass bigtime today.

Tue, 11/18/2014 - 17:09 | 5462441 Bloppy
Bloppy's picture

Volume so low (one third of average in places I looked), it's like Thanksgiving holiday is now entire month of November.

 

CNN badly screws up Jerusalem attack coverage

http://tinyurl.com/klfoy63

Tue, 11/18/2014 - 17:16 | 5462462 Bangalore Equit...
Bangalore Equity Trader's picture

Listen.

So did The Hedge!

Icahn's "DONATIONS" have strings attached...

Tue, 11/18/2014 - 17:15 | 5462467 flacon
flacon's picture

Bloopy, regarding the CNN article: That's what you get for a Fisher Price 'News' Network. 

Tue, 11/18/2014 - 17:22 | 5462495 astoriajoe
astoriajoe's picture

How about Cartoon News network?

Tue, 11/18/2014 - 17:17 | 5462476 SickDollar
SickDollar's picture

the true story behind the attack at synagogue, told by the tribe:

 

By Gilad Atzmon

The attack on a synagogue in Jerusalem today took place in Har Nof, a Jewish neighborhood  built over the ruins of Deir Yassin, a Palestinian village whose inhabitants were wiped out on  April 9, 1948. The Deir Yassin Massacre delivered a clear message to the Palestinian people. The Jewish militias were driven by genocidal inclinations and the Arabs better run for their lives. However, it seems as if the Palestinian collective memory is alive and kicking - it may be possible that the Deir Yassin Massacre was commemorated today.

http://www.gilad.co.uk/writings/

Tue, 11/18/2014 - 17:30 | 5462522 Bangalore Equit...
Bangalore Equity Trader's picture

Listen.

Wait till the promises are broken and the USSA soldiers figure it all out.

Ooh la la.

Tue, 11/18/2014 - 17:16 | 5462465 Mr Pink
Mr Pink's picture

Harry Dent was on AJ today. Predicted gold to go to $700 and silver $5-$10

Tue, 11/18/2014 - 17:40 | 5462570 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Dent's also predicting a DOW 3,000. How's that working out?

Tue, 11/18/2014 - 18:08 | 5462670 DavidC
DavidC's picture

Looking at the Dow chart, whether one a log or linear Y axis, my ultimate target is between 3,500 and 4,000. FTSE sub 2,000.

DavidC

Tue, 11/18/2014 - 18:12 | 5462690 Ruffmuff
Ruffmuff's picture

Everyone likes to predict shit. No one ever cares if you're right or wrong.

Really how hard is it to say it is up or down.

ANd who is harry dent? ANd would give two shits?

The only ones who really want gold are the jewelers. It would cost 100 bucks to resize my college class ring. I'll wait.  

Hey it is a thin market, like I've said for years. No real demand.

Tue, 11/18/2014 - 18:40 | 5462786 Mr Pink
Mr Pink's picture

He also said today, if the Dow doesn't retrace to 15k in Dec then it will go to 19k before it crashes. I'm not saying he knows anything but is looking like deflation is in our future

Tue, 11/18/2014 - 17:10 | 5462445 mtndds
mtndds's picture

Bullish!

Tue, 11/18/2014 - 17:14 | 5462458 Bangalore Equit...
Bangalore Equity Trader's picture

Listen.

Rally time Monkey's!

Tue, 11/18/2014 - 17:11 | 5462446 The_Dead_Bear
The_Dead_Bear's picture

Fuck...

Tue, 11/18/2014 - 17:12 | 5462449 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

I think it's time again to convert another chunk of my Monopoly money over to phyzz.

I would like to thank the stock market for financing all my gold purchases.

Tue, 11/18/2014 - 17:38 | 5462454 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

looks like game on, kill everything with a big nose and beady eyes

next minivan full o' hasidim is getting a beat down, the war has begun now...

and Matt Drudge with bloody Torah cover shot , how about all the kids blown apart by IDF?

you sick little fucking kike, someone needs to take you out as well ... soon hopefully

Tue, 11/18/2014 - 17:12 | 5462456 Callz d Ballz
Callz d Ballz's picture

Just all out blatant manipulation.

Tue, 11/18/2014 - 17:15 | 5462461 SilverIsMoney
SilverIsMoney's picture

LOL the more obvious it gets the closer we are...

Tue, 11/18/2014 - 17:19 | 5462482 Bangalore Equit...
Bangalore Equity Trader's picture

Listen Silver.

There will be no "EVENT". Japan is the prototype. It will go on until all CON-fidence is lost. ALL.

Tue, 11/18/2014 - 17:29 | 5462505 SilverIsMoney
SilverIsMoney's picture

LOL soo apparently when all confidence is lost that's not an event?

This "never gonna crash" shit is the same crap we heard about housing 10 years ago. When the pleebs start to believe X will never go down because the fed is going to be there to save it there does come a point when X crashes because of the loss of confidence you've mentioned. Nothing goes one way forever and all this crap about this is the new normal and there will never been a major crash again is the same tired argument we heard about housing. The fact people on ZH, of all places, are starting to believe this shit is just further proof positive to me the crash will hit in 2015 and hit hard. When even ZHers stop believing then obviously we are close...

And please, don't compare the US to Japan... their nation is full of nothing but subservients and they aren't armed to the teeth either. Before the POG gets to 132k in USD (like it is in Yen) there will be a full blown revolution here. We're already at the edge socially with stocks at all-time highs...

But please... keep preaching this "it will go on and on and on" shit because the more people believe that the more likely it is the people who control these markets will leave quietly and leave everyone with the bag.

The crash is coming whether you like it or not... it will probably take Gold with it but then again maybe not. Honestly I could care less bc I'm not just stacking for profit. The end of this farce is so very close... 

 

Tue, 11/18/2014 - 18:13 | 5462684 Bangalore Equit...
Bangalore Equity Trader's picture

Listen.

"apparently when all confidence is lost that's not an event"

No it's not. It's erosion. The timeline is important to identify. An event has a very short timeline, erosion is water over a rock. Slowly breaking down.

You don't get it. Are you Japanese?

Tue, 11/18/2014 - 18:55 | 5462831 SilverIsMoney
SilverIsMoney's picture

I do get it i'm just telling you you're wrong because this is not Japan.

The better question is are you Japnese...

Tue, 11/18/2014 - 17:17 | 5462469 Tinky
Tinky's picture

Remember how friggin' obvious the housing bubble was (I sold my FL condo two years before the top!)? This makes that call seem nuanced.

Tue, 11/18/2014 - 17:19 | 5462489 Bell's 2 hearted
Bell's 2 hearted's picture

my rule of thumb

 

the longer reality delayed

 

the bigger the splash

Tue, 11/18/2014 - 18:14 | 5462692 Bangalore Equit...
Bangalore Equity Trader's picture

Listen Tinky.

Was it in Boca?

Ooh la la!

Wed, 11/19/2014 - 05:50 | 5464453 Tinky
Tinky's picture

Nah, BE, I really dislike South Florida, but spent many winters there due to my work with Thoroughbred racehorses. I was just north of Miama.

To be fair, it was a much nice place to live 30+ years ago.

Tue, 11/18/2014 - 17:19 | 5462483 Bell's 2 hearted
Bell's 2 hearted's picture

isn't friday option expiry?

 

gotta keep the markets up ... whatever ...

Tue, 11/18/2014 - 17:23 | 5462499 Callz d Ballz
Callz d Ballz's picture

"Bonus Bonus Chart: Prior to today's push, the 5-day closing range of the S&P is the lowest ever (at 7.7bps) - since 1928 when Bloomberg data began... (h/t @JackDamn"

 

Well then, isn't that just "efficient"

Tue, 11/18/2014 - 17:33 | 5462533 SilverIsMoney
SilverIsMoney's picture

BTW! The S&P is up 189 points in 1 month! So when are the all the ass hats on CNBC going to talk about this being an obvious bubble? OH wait! Never! Cause we're never going down again, right!? HA!

If you're still in this market get out while you still can...

Tue, 11/18/2014 - 17:37 | 5462560 luna_man
luna_man's picture

 

 

I get the feeling this will be the saddest christmas this "market" will experience in a long time! (even the decline of 2008)

 

and continue downward...no "recovery" in sight

Tue, 11/18/2014 - 17:56 | 5462632 g'kar
g'kar's picture

The FED has seemingly unlimited intervention money, they can't lose....the tax-payers are on the hook for any losses anyways.

Tue, 11/18/2014 - 18:16 | 5462704 OldBoy
OldBoy's picture

Russell 2000 and Trannies close in the red for the week?

Tue, 11/18/2014 - 18:25 | 5462735 yogibear
yogibear's picture

"Just all out blatant manipulation."

They have trillions of Fed dollars to use.

Tue, 11/18/2014 - 18:28 | 5462751 skbull44
skbull44's picture

Free market capitalism....gotta love it!

 

http://olduvai.ca

Wed, 11/19/2014 - 07:41 | 5464544 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

 In addition to manipulation by the government-financial complex other forces are converging to further distort and disconnect Wall Street from the American economy. Why American equities continue to rise is very important, more is at force here than the usual causes which might include a pre-election and post-election rally. This is more than the continuation of a double down and let it ride mentality that has been ratcheting the market higher while reenforced by media hype.

Most analysts agree that money from countries with weakening currencies is flowing out of the troubled areas and the U.S. is receiving most of the benefit. The Japanese as well as many Chinese and Europeans know with so much money floating around and few safe harbors America is becoming the most comfortable option for temporary investing their money. More on why this should be viewed as a sign of instability rather than a reason to celebrate in the article below.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/11/why-american-equities-are-rising.html

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!