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Is This The Chart That The World Should Be Watching Closest?
The consensus - perhaps until today, judging by the performance of Japanese stocks relative to the Yen - is that Abe calling a snap election is bullish, enabling him to re-confirm his mandate to push ahead with uber-dovish devastation of the Japanese economy. However, what few are willing to consider is... what happens if the world's greatest policy madman does not get elected? As the following chart shows, with only 4.4% of Japanese households believing they are better off in the past year, perhaps an unelected Abe is the black swan no one is considering currently...
From The Bank of Japan Opinion Survey...
Only 4.4% believe their situation has improved in the last year... and 48.5% believe it has worsened... this is a 6 month trend!
And additionally... both backward and forward looking views of economic conditions are falling fast...
and 78.8% of those surveyed believe the prices rises (thanks to Abe's Yen crushing idiocy) are unfavorable...
* * *
Given the opposition party's unfavorable opinion of the print-money-crush-Yen plan - one can only imagine what happens if Abe loses...
Perhaps that is why things are starting to decouple?
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They just need the media to run cheerleading stories all day giving fabricated positive numbers like we do in the USA
Let's gets some seed money, open a media company and setup a tent on the outskirts of Godzilla central like every other POS
Any economy that is too dependent on government policies is stagnant and will die
What about Zaibatsu Economy/Government?
Dying
Dead. We are Worse than Japan now.
Even debasement is subject to the law of diminishing returns.
Mr. Abe, Diebold holding on line 1...
The Japanese apparently just don't understand what's good for them.
Yes, because Japanese mass media has been telling Japanese that weaker yen would be favorable for the export industries and would boost the Japanese economy for past 20 years. Many people don’t realized that Japanese manufactures have moved significant part of their factories to overseas although most of the commodities we buy in Japan have been made in China or other Asian countries. Japanese media has been doing as great job brainwashing their citizens as American media has been doing to Americans.
Brilliant tactical move. Abe is going Galt.
Who is Abe Galt?
Is he more capable than John Kerry?
More credible than Jen Psaki?
I would like to see comparable charting for the USA and does it mirror Japan.
I believe it mirrors these charts closely.
As if it matters - there are countless stooges ready and willing to take Abe's place.
Win Win for Abe.
If he loses he can shrug his shoulders and declare it isn't his fault.
If he wins he can do anything till the music stops.
When it stops things will be so fucked up Abe will be an afterthought.
Listen.
The black swans. One in every article.
Japan is toast if the Yen is at 70 or 145 per dollar. The aging population coupled with a younger generation that has completely lost drive and focus has doomed the country. The young people know the economy will never get better and the debt load is so monstrous that it will never be repaid.
They hope the government will dissolve and the debts will be wiped away. I worked for a Japanese company. Over the past four years the company just ate itself as the CEO transfered as much money out of it as he could. He's on his way to Switzerland to live out the rest of his days. You ask him about the future of Japan and he just shakes his head. This is a guy who was running a $500 million dollar private multinational corporation. In Wall Street terms that is what $20-30 billion? Everyone like him is throwing in the towel.
The collapse will happen gradually then...SUDDENLY. I think we are very close.
Yes, Japs have been pumping/dumping the Yen. Building opera houses in farm towns and off shoring for 20 plus years.
But the Qcaine has a shorter and shorter shelf life. You can hear the timbers creaking. Top of the 9th in Tokyo.
I don't understand those charts, can you put it in a dot plot? Or maybe a swirlogram?
Importantly this survey was two months BEFORE Abe trashed the Yen another 10%.
Abenomics has been little more than wholescale looting of Japan’s pensions and other financial assets aimed at supporting the cabal in the US.
I think LDP loses a lot of seats pensioners are getting killed by this policy.. For Kuroda to not tone down policy
into an election (ie directly push up stocks a headvof a vote) he should be removed..
When people realisze Abe might not get big enough mojority that could be it for JGB.. the opposition hasnt spoken much,
if they take more stable policy line with balanced budget objective like before they might do better than expected.
Also to get some collapse during electon is good for them to show this is Abe mess... (ie yes you can set all asset prices equities/bonds/ reits but the cost.. via weakening currency is bad for real people.
Also it seems Japan would be better off using their savings in Japan to support their own economy / stable currency not sending it all off shore... and destabalising their own markets...
stupid plan..
also as the yen gets weaker up here near 7y year highs theres the potentioal for someone large to begin a crash type trade.
When then BOJ buys bonds... it receives the bond and gives the seller cash (ie yen).
The seller can borrow (rep the bond) with rates near zero across the curve most rates must be close to zero
and then use the new yen (that he got for almost fee) and switch in to USD,,
ie a large player that feels they can push yen to a level to force the BOJ to stop buying could do this process of taking the cash they received from BOJ purchases and keep weakening then yen.. The more the BOJ buys the more they switch into USD and move it until it gets to level BOJ has to stop buying...
and their cost to borrow the bonds (for 1 month to as far as one year) could be zero or even small negative.. this is very dangerious stupid move by Kuroda.. if some large fund (Soros type trade) starts it..
possible if they get small negative repo (borrowing rate) and then posative on US side.. its both posative carry to put on.. the risk is the JGB side that the BOJ push;s them too high relative to the sell price (ie margin cost or stopped out) but it seems like its lot easier for the FX to move than for the JGB to go much lower than 0.57bp i 10y and sub 10bp 0-5ys..
This is the stupidest post I have ever read on Zero Hedge.
There is nobody else to vote for. The LDP losing is about as fathomable as Republicans losing control of the House to a coalition of Greens and Communists.
The yen worked lower again yesterday and finished on its bottom. While the RSI is very low my experience has been this can go on for a long time and if panic sets in it will be followed by shock and awe. In the coming months the falling value of both the yen and euro may reek havoc through contagion. For months the major world currencies had traded in a narrow range allowing people to think we were on sound footing as central banks across the world continued to print and pump out money looking for growth that always appears to be just around the corner.
Recently several major currencies made multi-year highs or lows depending on the match-up. Because of weak demand for goods most of this freshly printed money has flowed into intangible investments Inflation has not been a major problem, but the seeds for its future growth have been planted everywhere. John Maynard Keynes said By a continuing process of inflation, government can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens.
While there are not many Bond Vigilantes there are a slew of Currency Vigilantes and they are ready to make their presence known. Weakness in the value of the Yen, Pound, and Euro must not go unnoticed. More on why this may be a signal that currency trading is about to get very wild in the article below. Please note, this may also be sending a signal that the whole system is unstable and the stock market could drop like a stone due to contagion.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/09/caution-alert-currencies-may-get-wild.html
Rather look at the actual ships trading in Japanese ports .
You are about 3 times richer than you think .
See
https://www.academia.edu/9405720/The_Economics_of_Disrespect_Update_I
or
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com/2014/11/the-economics-of-disrespect-update...