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Philly Fed Explodes To 21 Year Highs, Beats By 10 Standard Deviations
Bwuahahaha... Against expectations of a small drop to 18.5, the Philly Fed business outlook 'survey' printed 40.8 - its highest since 1993. This is a 10-sigma event, more than doubling last month's 20.7 print. New Orders surged (17.3 to 35.7), Shipments doubled, Prices Paid collapsed (27.6 to 17.3) and Prices received plunged. As the number of employees rose to 2011 highs. It appears we are going to need a better seasonal adjustment...
Biggest beat on record, highest in 21 years...
The analysts nailed it...
The Breakdown...
Charts: Bloomberg
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It is not easy to coordinate propaganda.
You know, Putin can easily do it because he controls everything.
Not in the USA and EU, though Japan publishes somewhat real data.
This white house is a real diletante as far as propaganda
I wonder if new orders includes west philly crack rock?
I doubled my purchases, which is why you saw this happen:
"Shipments doubled, Prices Paid collapsed (27.6 to 17.3) and Prices received plunged. As the number of employees rose to 2011 highs."
It all makes perfect sense in the New Normal.
Get your New Normal lobotomy today and you'll feel a LOT better about it.
formula error in their Excel goalseek.
Meth...moar meth
Santa claus rally half way now
Weeeeeeee
Moar Meth
And in other meaningless/made-up economic news, here are some additional numbers:
45.2%
13.5
67
13.9 (down from a revised 14.0)
Have fun Algos...
CNBC: "That amazing Philly Fed reading is probably wrong"
Uh oh. We've reached Peak Bullshit.
Peak Bullshit is a myth!
There will be an adequate supply of bullshit for generations of future Americans.
"...Let me be clear about this: we are a nation rich in bullshit and everyday folks have much untapped bullshit potential..."
It just pisses me off that they get all the really good drugs.....
Perhaps someone read the weather forecasts and made a bunch of snow shovels.
About time, I was thinking this whole "Green Shoot's" meme was bullshit.
Allwe need to know is that the economy recovered these last 5 minutes
and chocolat rations will go up from 50 to 30 grams a day...
Good news for all chocolate aficionados. Due to demand outstripping supply over at least the next decade, prices are likely to... plunge... it's the new normal. Physical cocoa shortages will just make the prices plunge faster.
Chocolate is the new gold.
Nice.
..but for some reason my chocolate stacks keep depleting. ;-)
IF YOU DON'T HOLD IT IN YOUR HANDS , it won't melt....
BUT!
It is devisible into smalller units...
It can be stored...
It's accepted all over the world...
And in WOII people accepted it as payment! Booty call for a bar of chocolat!
So.... CHOCOLAT IS THE ULTIMATE FORM OF CURRENCY!
Well, they were up on Ebola, because that is where they grow a lot of that stuff. I don;t know if it ever actually stopped any shipments.
Prices went up a little bit. The price had been working around 30 for months and months. Broke higher on ebola but is now down under 29? Sure whatever
Aaaah, but you only get five small pieces of chocolate. I get three big pieces of chocolate. I win again. My love and devotion to BB pays off again.
Remain Calm and eat your waffle.
Is that why the US markets went apeshit UP ON THE OPEN?!
DavidC
Apeshit needs no reason lately. Apeshit is unbounded.
Papal visiting Philly announcement. Hope arisen ?
Yup, from 9:30 to 9:59 the Russell 2000 shot up without having one 2-minute downtick for the entire half an hour in spite of several negative headlines.
Very normal indeed. Not manipulated at all. Whatever it takes. The Dudley/Draghi macarena.
Al Capone is the pope next to these good fellas
You must have missed the 9:30 Philly Fed release
Oh well!!
My Mar. '15 short is still solidly in the money; and down 0.75 on the day; the futures markets are very bearish on the S&P.
Have you ever read the Moscow Times? That paper is Putin-bashing central.
Ever seen Obama bashed that way in the NYT, the Washington Post, the LA Times?
yes. but they never bash Putin. They simply do some analysis with some good numbers, but never ever bashed Putin directly.
They'd be closed down if they did
Most of what Nassim Taleb was trying to explain to you is that there are no standard deviations in this kind of data because it's not a Gausian Distribution; and in this particular case, there aren't enough samples to mean anything; but it does make for exciting journalism.
Breaking news:
it is a SURVEY, not data.
It is just pure propaganda
It's not data either. In fact, it's not real - just some made up survey responses.
You'd think that the FED wouldn't have a problem disclosing who is being surveyed and that those being surveyed wouldn't mind it - after all, it's just a survey of opinions, right? Unless it's not really a survey.
Fed has live data, but the order is not to use it
Exhaustion Gap.
^this.
The entity that we have been accusing of being ball's deep in our backsides since 1913 (or 1933) is now who we look to for accurate information?
"Hey Bobby, if you hit the bullseye we will call it a 10 sigma beat, deal?"
pods
"ten sigma event?"
Isn't that like once in the age of the universe?
You're as very lucky fellow to have seen it in your lifetime. Give it a couple quarters and you'll probably see it again.
As more of these divergent events happen, the dramatic rise will be less of a surprise.
And anyway, does this meter "go to 11?"
Ten sigma events have a probability of one in 1.53^10-23.
But if it's bullish for the HFT Algos, it's a twice-a-day probability.
Luckily, knowledge of mathematics has never been a prerequisite to become a commentator for corporate media. Standard deviation . . . isn't that like a retro band or something?
Philly Philly... they must be selling a lot of Cheese Steaks this Quarter things are looking up...
No worries, the polar vortex will fix this outliar so we can get back to printing.
Plus one Plus Plus for
"outliar"
You caught that did ya? ;->
Natural gas prices are soaring and Philly is a major production and distribution center of energy (and consumer obviously.). Not saying the numbers are contrived but for any good lie to succeed it must have some truth to it.
I think Delta Airlines bought the huge refinery there for next to nothing a few years back.
Survey respondent list:
Jamie Dimon
Lloyd Blankfein
Janet Yellen
Abby Joseph Cohen
Richard Simmons
Tom Arnold
Joel Olsteen
Charo couldn't respond?
Howdy Doody
Clarabelle
were on the list - please provide the appropriate attribution
This is so freakin' corrupt beyond any reasonable doubt that it hurts my brain to even fathom it.
They've lost any regard to pretending they are not corrupt, they don't give a rats a$$. We publish the number you like, you instantly make a fortune with your algos and HFT and we probably get something on the side or at a later date.
Prison to all these disgusting people. I hope they all rot in hell.
I knew a guy who had a 10 Sigma event back in college. This certified Cocksman was a legend!
In full disclosure, I was wearing Drakkar so it wasn't entirely natural.
pods
These kids today with their Axe. Where's the fun in that?
Do you guys ever go out?
Construction everywhere, restaurants are packed, everyone seems to be getting a new car, etc.
Going out may be a better lens than trying to make charts match decade-old patterns.
Oh and my realtor neighbor has never been this busy. She's rolling in it.
Funny thing is I looked at the markets after ZH posted the previous sky-is-falling article just in time to watch the indices skyrocket.
Same as it ever was.
Cool I'm glad you took the time to get a sample set before you made conclusions. Better than most. ( a sample set of 1 is not ideal though).
Oh give me a break! Look around. People are spending like crazy. Look at Q3 results, the vast majority of companies reported very solid gains.
So what if a company reports revenue gains of 4.5% versus expectations of 4.6%. It's still a growth rate of 4.5%!!!
You can't, as ZH does, ridicule the whole "expectations" game on Wall Street and then turn around and point to companies that missed expectations but are way up.
Cool, so the Fed can turn off the Lagos and set rates back to a historical avg then I'm sure since things are so great.....OK 1-2-3 hold your breath for that.
Are people spending or not?
I say it this way: One out of one is not a statistic.
Feel free to use that phrase as you see fit.
Just in: home sales strongest in a year.
I'll bet ZH will place that headline at the top of their page.
cool man get levered long as hell the market and never work again--just hang with your rich real estate friend--why waste time here-
I should have done that years ago, 6 years ago to be precise, when ZH started its sky-is-falling shtick.
Six years of being wrong is quite a long time. This is a way worse track record than Gartman.
At least Gartman does not need to rely on a blog and cheesy advertising for a living.
but now you know everything is awesome--go all in-its really just that easy-only thing you have to worry about is how much capital gains you will need to pay-why tell others they are wrong-only hurts all your upside
I don't think they go out, no. They have their insular world view and keep themselves locked in their basements.
Everything is thriving here in Pittsburgh. No shortages of crowds at football games. Roads are packed. Everything is bustling.
Life is going on around these folks and they don't see it because they don't want to.
I had to go to Best Buy last weekend to buy a toner.
The place was packed.
Seriously, the first thought that crossed my mind was: "But ZH keeps telling the economy is in free fall."
"Construction everywhere, restaurants are packed, everyone seems to be getting a new car, etc."
Wow, I didn't know that God posted on the ZH boards! Still, it must hurt even God's head to watch all the activity at all the restaurants, construction sites and car dealerships in the United States all at once...but I guess that's why he's God!
Do you travel at all?
Plus your analogy is stupid as it can be use in the opposite: making widespread conclusions (the world is collapsing) based on stupid chart matches.
"Plus your analogy is stupid as it can be use in the opposite: making widespread conclusions (the world is collapsing) based on stupid chart matches."
But I WASN'T making any widespread conclusions, now, was I? The original poster was...
Sub-prime consumer debt at record highs, individual savings at record lows. Wage growth non-exisitant. Record number of people on government assistance. Fed balance sheet at 4+ trillion dollars, and that is only the balance sheet they make public.
Here in Raleigh, one of the fastest growing cities in the US, construction is nothing like it was in the mid-2000's. It's all multi-family apartments. Very little single-family housing going up compared to those times. Everyone has a 72 or 84 month loan on their piece of shit car that they could never afford with a conventional 60 month loan. Restaurant area always packed, I will give you that, but it is often times cheaper to eat out that to buy groceries and cook at home. Food prices, especially meat, are through the roof. I would estimate I am paying 20% more for groceries that I was 5 years ago.
Pesky fundamentals. Always muddy the waters.
Until you see Santelli report all numbers are totally fabricated and he can no longer trust the market and quits on live television it's status quo.
"..Fed Explodes.." ... good news.
Central Banking counterfeiting ring is terrified because no one is buying their improved market residue fluff.
Yellen has a big smile on her face today.
What else do you want to know.
Why? At this point 'data' is only good for an hour or so. What will they do tomorrow, 'beat' by 20 standard deviation points?
I am not from States that are united. I am consider to moving there. It maybe like this Philadelphia is best place???
Yeah, make the drive on I-95 between Wilmington and Philly on a cold, gray winter day...you'll love it!
Hmmm. Are going to pay that "stats borrow" back during the polar vortex print? The stats have a tendency to correct back and remove fake data on the next month print. Payback plus vortex at the same time seems pretty ugly.
Bullish, baby. Don't fight the Fed.
Unicorns and rainbows........hookers and blow........All is well America.....all is well!!!!
So basically, they've just decided that it's time to completely, unapologetically make shit up, all the time. Desperate times call for desperate measures! LOL...
Any time a huge lie is needed, you know things are serious somewhere.
"When it gets serious, you have to lie." - an honest man
Thank heavens the Keynesians were correct all along. The great debt and deficit experiment finally worked. Everything is coming up roses. Now get back to work........er ah.......nevermind.....I forgot you don't have a job....
Obama makes announcement on National Reveloution Day in Mexico? Just a coincidence I'm sure.
In case you guys haven't noticed, America doesn't exist anymore.
I know. Poor white folk. No say in anything. Someday, whites will rise again and gain power, something they've never had.
God Bless America and God Bless the Confederacy!
I wasn't just referring to the amnesty thing. Good grief. Take a look around.
So when did America end as you knew it? Likely before you we're born. See the paradox?
Front running the "Polar Farcetex"...
How long until the market realizes that the Fed now has to act sooner?
The GRUBER EFFECT!
Can we assume these are refiners where everybody and there fucking brother is buying up cheap fuel. One guy from China probably bought all supply from Maine to FL!
In reality it is 8.04, they got the numbers back to front!
Things are going gangbusters in Georgia, five years after the Recession ended.
"More than five years after the official end of recession, Georgia is still about 224,000 jobs shy of the peak in late 2007. Metro Atlanta is down about 77,000 jobs."
Over the last twelve months we have added an average of 18 jobs per county per month. 18.
How do the economists in Georgia describe this?
"We had significant over-the-year growth in almost every sector, which shows the overall strength in our job recovery. I'm especially encouraged that the number of construction jobs grew by nearly five percent to give us the most jobs in that industry in five years."
Of course who might be hiring the most?
"Savannah gained 1,440 jobs in the July-September period, with the government sector adding 600, transportation/utilities 550 and construction/mining 320. Those compensated for losses elsewhere, including 210 in manufacturing and 110 in the professional/business-services sectors."
And the forecast for 2015?
"The pace will be slightly slower than this year's job growth, although it will include virtually every sector except federal government positions, Rajeev Dhawan, the center's director, said."
I cannot wait to feel the economic boom.
It must of been snow shovel orders....its all I can think of that is in demand right now on the east coast...or Chinese housing...
Even CNBS is calling this print bogus.
I think you have the wrong graph, that graph is the number of snowplows heading to Buffalo right now.
Amateurs.
They need to work harder to ever reach David Viniar's "We were seeing things that were 25-standard deviation moves, several days in a row."
Philly FED?
No.
Silly FED.