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Veteran S&P Futures Trader: "I Am 100% Confident That Central Banks Are Buying S&P Futures"
A Zero Hedge reader, and long-time futures trader, shares his views on the evolution of the "market", where it was, where it is, and where it may be going.
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I have been an independent trader for 23 years, starting at the CBOT in grains and CME in the S&P 500 futures markets long ago while they were auction outcry markets, and have stayed in the alternative investment space ever since, and now run a small fund.
I understand better than most I would think, the "mechanics" of the markets and how they have evolved over time from the auction market to 'upstairs". I am a self-taught, top down global macro economist, and historian of "money" and the Fed and all economic and governmental structures in the world. One thing so many managers don't understand is that the markets take away the most amounts of money from the most amounts of people, and do so non-linearly. Most sophisticated investors know to be successful, one must be a contrarian, and this philosophy is in parallel. Markets will, on all time scales, through exponential decay (fat tails, or black swans, on longer term scales), or exponential growth of price itself. Why was I so bearish on gold at its peak a few years back for instance? Because of the ascent of non-linearity of price, and the massive consensus buildup of bulls. Didier Sornette, author of "Why Stock Markets Crash", I believe correctly summarizes how Power Law Behavior, or exponential consensus, and how it lead to crashes. The buildup of buyers' zeal, and the squeezing of shorts, leads to that "complex system" popping. I have traded as a contrarian with these philosophies for some time.
The point here is, our general indices have been at that critical point now for a year, without "normal" reactions post critical points in time, from longer term time scales to intraday. This suggests that many times, there is only an audience of one buyer, and as price goes up to certain levels, that buyer extracts all sellers. After this year and especially this last 1900 point Dow run up in October, and post non-reaction, that I am 100 percent confident that that one buyer is our own Federal Reserve or other central banks with a goal to "stimulate" our economy by directly buying stock index futures. Talking about a perpetual fat finger! I guess "don't fight the Fed" truly exists, without fluctuation, in this situation. Its important to note the mechanics; the Fed buys futures and the actual underlying constituents that make up the general indices will align by opportunistic spread arbitragers who sell the futures and buy the actual equities, thus, the Fed could use the con, if asked, that they aren't actually buying equities.
They also consistently use events through their controlled media, whether bad or good price altering news, to create investment behavior. The "ending" QE 3, and the immediate Bank of Japan QE news that night, and thus the ability to not quit QE using them as their front, and then propping our markets on Globex, like this is suppose to be good news, free markets totally dependent on QE, is one example. Last night, Obama passing the amnesty bill, and the more great news about how Europe and now China are also printing money out of thin air and "stimulating" their economies with QE too, which in turn prompts the Fed to prop up overnight futures markets on Globex to make that look like great news as well. I guess this is suppose to create a behavioral pattern for investors, that dependency on government gives us positive feedback and is good, much like Pavlov's dog and the ringing of the bell.
Why would the Fed prop up our stock market to begin with? Weren't they just supposed to "stimulate" the treasuries market only, to keep interest rates low, indirectly, by an eventual direct purchase in secondary markets, keeping them propped up (for five years now!)? Well, first of all as it relates to equities and utilizing the "Plunge Protection" mandate, why not just bypass the "plunge" altogether. Can't the definition of Plunge Protection be just that? Protection against a plunge instead of during a plunge? Doesn't propping the market equate to "Plunge Protection" since propping alleviates plunge and "protects" us? Does it depend on what the definition of "is" is? And really, doesn't the Fed buying futures directly alleviate those bankers who take their money in TARP or however means and then this money doesn't make its way into the very heart of what the public deems as its consumption motivator, higher stocks and real estate? Plus, buying futures is a means of then delivering fiat cash upon every expiration, therefore, "stimulus" to someone who receives it.
The Fed boasts about having a printing press, and I guess this allows them to "fix" everything. They "print money out of thin air" we keep hearing (which is true by the way) and with US taxpayer backing (fiat currency (always fails throughout history)), (perhaps post QE 3 there is an Executive Order for QE infinity), they sit on the actual bid and hold our treasury markets steady, and by buying out big sellers as they arise like Russia and China via their Belgium central bank franchise as an example, propping our dollar and then staying on that bid by other franchises, having constant bid flow into equity futures in real time hours and Globex overnite, all in order to retain US consumer confidence (since that is what we are suppose to continue to do) and the image of global strength to keep the dollar from losing its reserve status. Their obsession of stopping a deflationary depression, has headfaked people like Bill Gross, formerly of PIMCO, and known to have started hedging long bond positions five years ago with the assumptions that Fed printing would be inflationary, and rates would move higher, but without the assumption of the perpetual direct bid in the market place by the Fed creating, "price discovery". For now, that is.
In the end, which they know exactly when that is, the ultimate con is exposed through mass theft. Americans finally find out what those guys on CNBC are talking about when they mention "inflation" and how it destroys buying power over time. The end reflects the Fed stepping away from the bid in all markets. Prior to this, of course, they prep their offshore fund accounts to take the other side and short dollar, short global equities, and short fixed income, with mass leverage for maximum gain. I mean, why wouldn't they? They are a private entity and are composed of non-US citizens with no accountability or oversight and they seem to be globalist humanists with a depopulation bent (Rockefeller Foundation). Why wouldn't they use our money to prop, their money to take other side in a massive global short play, then let it all crash by simply stepping off the bid of these markets. They can then use the controlled talking heads who can relay the complexities of fiat money, index arbitrage, money velocity, currency and CDO swaps, with some geopolitical China worries, whatever, but really emphasize that the whole capitalistic system and constitution was flawed to begin with anyways, and that perhaps totalitarian fascism would be best for the country at this point since everyone's wealth is destroyed overnight and are literally hungry. Perhaps Obama is just that person! Maybe Dinesh D'souza was right about Obama. This is the way to destroy us, or "equal" the playing field globally by taking us down to third world status, is it not? Leverage the American people's money by trillions of dollars at the tops of capital markets, then bury them in a death spiral? Maybe Thomas Jefferson knew what he was saying' "If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered."
Why wouldn't anyone believe these words written here? Perhaps you can't imagine someone being so evil? Wasn't the Federal Reserve Bank concept initially funded by a Rothschild in the 1800s, who used the media to deceive the public and sway the London Stock Market down negatively, who then speculated against that panicking public's sell orders by taking long positions in stocks, then making a fortune when everyone found out that the news was wrong and positive? Then later another Rothschild founded our Federal Reserve in 1913, and others like JP Morgan who supposedly bought the US stock market in a banking panic and "saved" America in 1909? Aren't all of these Fed owners Fabian Socialists?
Details of this last market move:
This last 1900 point Dow Jones push upwards - and the Ebola events leading into it - it was so orchestrated and heightened at critical points but the ascent and push straight up in price, and sideways nonreaction after was completely unlike anything I've seen before. After going up for a record breaking amount of time the last five or so years, in a nonlinear exponential mania type of ascent, there should normally be tremendous volatility that follows. But, this isn't a tech-like mania! There aren't any buyers here other then the Fed. The shorts were all squeezed in 2009, 2010, 11, 12, and everyone who has ever wanted to buy stocks is in!
Modern Portfolio Theory has reached it's pinnacle, leading 55% of the American public who partake in that "diversified" portfolio theory off an eventual cliff. The market acts more like a penny stock that has been pumped up and is "boxed" (boxed, meaning, the whole float is buying and holding and held with the promoter, one broker dealer, and thus this one broker dealer can control price "discovery"(regardless of actual fundamentals and using "press releases" to sway and create order flow they want and need from naive clients)) , and less like a free market. The Dow runs up that much that quickly, then on Globex its down .02 percent at the most over night, multiple days in a row? No pullback? Are you kidding me!? Then the actual trading days have very little volume, and the peaks in price intraday also exhibit nonreactions sideways, just a couple of tics from the highs. This price manipulation reflects that they want to expunge all shorts on all time scales, to the point that there will be no point to try, and at the very end, there will be very few. This also reflects that a group of very smart prop trader types, experienced behavioralists, perhaps off of a prior prop desk like a Goldman, are controlling this game, and not some government treasury/cftc/sec "plunge protect" type who doesn't understand this game.
With the indoctrination of Modern Portfolio Theory, and the masses' epistemology from experience and from "experts" to never ever get out because "it always comes back", and from corporate buybacks, the actual intraday trading float has disappeared, thus, easier and cheaper to manipulate and find the perfect "price discovery" for every situation to control investor behavior, especially during off hours on Globex. This past situation, during the break and runup, there would be thousands of opportunities for the Fed insiders using different variations of ways to front run (without using the focus dump then pump futures contract itself), making the HFT guys front running for pennies look like complete chumps. Can you imagine all the different ways to bet the global markets at the height of the ebola scare, which just happened to be the height of the mass media hammering the public with fear about it(haven't heard a word since!), which happened to be the exact moment of a very large Dow Jones 600 points intraday range after falling 1000 points in 9 days, which also happened to be at the height of put option premiums expanding and call option premiums eroding quickly, by knowing that the Fed is now going to prop it back up, way back up, and quickly! Shorting put premium globally for expiration in 7 or 37 days? Buying way out of the money cheap calls, buying the underlying equities, shorting interest rates, buying inflation, buying emerging markets and all of their liquid securities, options plays etc... on and on. That prior knowledge ts worth trillions, is it not? We all know that investment bank broker dealer desks take the other side of trades, and inventory the other side opportunistically. Why wouldn't this "bank" too, especially now that they are intertwined with investment banks thus have gained their intellectual property in trading? And why wouldn't they influence our idiot sheepish politicians to mandate the Fed Reserve, to encourage the Fed Reserve, to stimulate, whereas our Fed could use that for "the people", while at the same time, for themselves take the other side based on their offshore opportunistic mandate? Today's current markets are completely manipulated, every market, all the time, with our money and political Keynesian (control) mandate doing the manipulation in order for their money to front run and profit from there opportunistic mandate.
So if I am right, and my 23 years of experience trading equities, during manias enables me to know with certainty that I am, that they are allowed to directly be involved and have a perpetual standing bid in the secondary derivatives markets, they can then take the other side when they want (no need to publicly announce this, but to justify in their own heads). So when they take the other side in the public markets upon themselves pulling the prior US citizen backed bids in all markets for the ultimate 80 year cyclical "end game" (btw, about 23 years past the Kondratief Cycle deadline which is one way to describe the inevitable delay in this ongoing natural economic system reset) of the US fiat backed paper print con capped off by mass leverage, wouldn't they make trillions on the bubble pop on the way down? Wouldn't they also end up eventually owning the whole US since commerce would halt immediately, everyone would lose their jobs causing mass deflation (and hyperinflation due to our currency being booted as reserve currency, and imports becoming expensive overnight) causing mass defaults on their home loan obligations? Where do our mortgages end up now post 2008, 2009 financial collapse? Our governments coffers via FHA, FNMA, GNMA? And who will place a lien on our government when they default on it's loans? Wouldn't they be able to foreclose on America?
The US mandate on allowing Plunge Protection enabling the Fed to stick their noses directly in the equities markets was written in 1988 and is public knowledge and found in the public forum. And the attached "memo" shows incentives from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange for Central Bankers to use their equity futures markets.
Write me if you have any questions or comments, or if you need me to join in your efforts help to expose this Ponzi scam.
Moses
PM
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This has been obvious for months.
Right form the point that the CME directly created incentive programs for Central Bank order flow. http://www.cmegroup.com/company/membership/files/CBIPFAQ.pdf
It is 100% obvious that they are also selling the VIX.
Unrigged.
Through the use of my crystal ball and my recently refurbished time machine, I've been able to determine the precise date the Fed will stop buying S&P futures.
This date is...
Haha...the joke's on all of us. Never.
really i do not see what the problem is ...so, they are buing sell it to them and get out ...
besides, they also want to make money the old fashion way ... earning it fair and square in the stock market ...
The FED is buying because they represent us...no wait, let me change that. They are buying because..they represent the banks who own the FED?
And your also right they are earning our money the old fashioned way -- they are stealing it.
Arius you are just so sarcastic.
It looks as if the central banks are buying S & P futures but what they are really buying is just a little more time.
Forget these silly conspiracy BS and lets talk about the most crucial issue of our time: Bill Cosby is a racist! Oh, he's a rapist? Whatever! Let's just talk about it all day everyday for awhile!
Viewing our history in retrospect, it taxes the imagination to realize that a young and fertile land, filled with such an energetic and ingenious people, should have been betrayed so long to the connivings of those who were non-producers. How utterly incredible that debt-merchants, with nothing but their fictitious reserves, and their usurped power to create interest-bearing debt, could so long systematically bilk a nation without an outraged citizenry making them disgorge their unearned wealth and unearned claims!
Future historians will refer to this era in markets/finanace as the "Steroid Era". Everyone is cheating and everyone knows everyone is cheating. Nobody wants to admit it because the home run count is through the roof and the ratings (also manipulated) are at all-time-highs.
greenspun admitted on a twentieth anniversary documentary on the 87 crash that they bought futures the next day to stem the crash..........so OF COURSE they are still propping this up the same way..........and they will certainly pull the plug one day........
Funny but not news,...
Miss monetizing FB? new competetor -get in early https://www.tsu.co/philosopherstone
And I am 100% confident that this S&P trader is 100% correct!
If 535 people let them it must be ok.......oh wait
I'm 100% certain that the [unidentified] ZH reader referred to is francis_sawyer, because central banks, as a particular subset representing entity, & cloaked in the promise & guise of 'employment & price stability' technocrats, are ACTUALLY, at the core of the onion, just 'run of the mill' [INSERT ASYMMETRICAL DEMOGRAPHIC OF YOUR CHOICE HERE].
"really i do not see what the problem is ...so, they are buing sell it to them and get out ...
besides, they also want to make money the old fashion way ... earning it fair and square in the stock market ..."
This is way beyond the mere buying / selling of equities. The consequences of intervention on this scale will be huge, and not limited to just the equities markets.
The idea of intervention at all is so contrary to free markets (not that we truly have them) but it destroys any notion that we have a fair and equitable system. This is cronyism on a grand scale that will create a path of destruction like none we've ever seen before.
"The idea of intervention at all is so contrary to free markets"
says who? glen Lloyd? well glen sorry, i do not agree with you and fully support the FED's action to support the market.
What are free markets anyways? Anybody knows?
MDB, is that you???
You don't see the problem with the Fed buying with money that they 'create' then send the bill to the American citizens? You do realize that money supply expansion also leads to commodities having rising prices? Look at the YoY cost of food and utilities. That right there will show you that they are robbing the current and future generations of resources so that they can point and say "Look stocks are doing great, so smile!". The massive problem lately is the diminishing returns that are occurring, so much so that it takes an exponential amount of money creation to maintain the current valuations (FRB/BOJ/BOE/ECB/PBOC playing circle jerk the QE), let alone raise them (we're going parabolic http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/WCURCIR).
All this is being billed to us and future generations. Current generations are suffering, lack of rising wages with rising expenses, also with the fixed income being smashed to zero income, older generations are having to choose between accumulating debt or eating. Future generations are all being robbed of resources they will need while we consume and destroy to keep this current illusion of 'consumption utopia'. I do believe we are nearing the end of the 'CB experiment' (ticking time bomb here http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/RREPT) .
If you still see no problem you are either an idiot, or a central banker.
I dont think I am an idiot, although I enjoy my box of chocolates ... but look in the mirror, you might find him there ...
Right.You are a troll.
Sorry.Double post.
I say, at this point, let them conjure up confetti and buy all they want to buy. We are in no way obligated to pay the debt they are running up nor are we obligated to let them retain any of the real assets they are buying on false faith and credit.
These are the actions of the privately owned Federal Reserve. They are not mine nor yours. They are responsible and so they must be treated appropriately.
The problem with your theory of "We are in no way obligated to pay the debt they are running up"
Morally you are 100% correct but there are no mooring lines attached to this ship.
and you won't have a say in the matter. If you manage to stay alive you will be forced to pay for it. There is no where to hide. South Americans will eat gringo's and you will be begging for a room at the FEMA INN.
As a side note the U.S. deer, squirrel and rabbit population cratered during the last depression as they were a staple in the American diet.
You don't see a problem? Let me make it simple for you. They print the money out of thin air to buy that 113 dollar share of apple. And they want to sell it to the next sucker like you for 120 dollars. What did you have to do to earn that 120 dollars? Pure profit raping that does not cost them one dime and absolutley zero risk. Money printers thus could care less if the price goes down or not, only that they find a willing buyer to pawn it off on.Fuck their stock market.
calm down ... the country and the world needs the capital markets
This is not capital nor a market.
No it doesn't. Without the "market" the global economy would revert to a system of creating real value and reward honest hard working individuals instead of con asrtits and those who wish to not work for wealth.
Intentionally obtuse.
Don't gruber me, bro.
Big Mo here wants to get nail gunned here...but i totally agree with ya
The question that I think is more important to ask-how did Woody Dorsey predict the top before Ebola weeks ahead-and then the bottom 3 weeks before?
Yes, this market is rigged-but maybe the master planners are turning things the way they want them at sentiment extremes-both on the greed side as well as fear.
Take a look-the full reports are open to the public.
http://www.sentimenttiming.com/free/
So what!
The Feral Reserve wasn't able to stop the selling late October buying S&P futures
It took Bullard's bullshit and Abe's slashing the Yen to do it!
But now that's been played out along with China cutting deposit rates.
So no can do next time the """market""" takes a dump.
THIS ARTICLE IS A "SCARE CROW" PLANTED BY "THEM" AS A FUTILE ATTEMPT TO WARD OFF WOULD BE SELLERS FROM GOING UP AGAINST THE FED'S PPT EFFORTS!
GOES TO SHOW HOW FUCKING WORRIED THE FERAL RESERVE, ET AL ARE NOW ABOUT THE IMPLOSION AHEAD.
Did it take Bullard's bullshit and Abe's slashing to do it? Or were those actions a means to provide rationale for what was going on in the markets? For entertainment purposes, look at CNBC and Bloomberg's headlines for why the market is up to day (every day). There is some tidbit of information that it put out there to explain to the masses why the market is moving. I, and I believe the author would agree, that the market is being moved, and then an explanation is produced to explain it.
Yeah no shit the """market"" has been manipulated ad nauseam for years now
But they're scam is played out as far as it can go and they know it's about to implode into the abyss now.
Oh yeah! I'm feeling the wrath of the pom-pom cheer leader boyzzz now...
I think he covered that...
They know when it will implode....because they have the implode button.
Did you catch the part about about the super dry humping via shorts after flipping the switch?
As if the Fed bought bonds and nothing else. LOL!!!
Right. File under "Duh'.
at least the japanese asdmit to buying stocks---whats with that? total desperation?????
The Fed hasn't bought shit, it's that Belgium guy with access to infinite amounts of money *wink* *wink* *mother fucker*. FYI that mysterious "Other Assets" (equities futures contracts) line item pretty much all but disappeared, though it is starting to expand again http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/WOTHAST
It is 100% obvious that they are also selling the VIX.
Non predictive for a long time.
Blah Blah Blah..
When does it all happen so I can shaaawt the sheat out of the maaahhkit?
I'd be more believing if he had given his trader badge acronym and clearing house number. Otherwise, anyone could've written that claiming to have been on the S&P 500 Pit steps. I know he gave part of his name, but again, it would help to have the full picture.
You read articles from a fictional character named Tyler Durden. What's the difference?
I thought it was a great article. What the author has done is broke the game played in a type of 101 or basics for the new folks.
And that is the difference.
The message is more important to you than the messenger. Truth over all.
For the other guy the messenger is at least as important as the message.
You guess which one describes the majority.
I know buddy , I know. This is why some of us know we are on a deserted island while majority are in denial and still believe they are at a high end resort. Then when shit hits the fan they want our stash we have been preparing for thinking they are still entitled.
Funny, all it takes is some dude saying "I was THERE man, listen to me" and you're all over it.
No wonder the USA is going down the tubes, too many rubes around.
It could be foreign Central Banks buying. The Swiss central bank has admitted buying US small cap stocks. Why not SP500 futures? Surely they don't want to keep holding all the Euros they've been buying. The Bank of Japan could be doing the same thing just for diversification purposes.
But outright purchases of equities is the sort of Rubicon that they would only cross in a very extreme situation. I'm not saying they haven't done it before. In fact, I'm guessing they have. Occam's Razor suggests that it would be easier these days just to continue QE than buy equity futures outright at these levels.
So here's a more juicy possibility: Have foreign (German, Japan, Swiss) Central Banks pledged/shorted their Gold against long equity positions?
Central Banks Load Up on Equities By Sarah Jones Apr 25, 2013 10:34 [Bloomberg]
SHUT THE PHUCK UP AND BUY WITH THEM? IT IS FREE PHUCKING MONEY.. SERIOUSLY .. WHAT THE PHUCK IS THE BIG DEAL?
HTTP://www.hedge.bz
That's fine, until the music stops.
The question is why? My guess is that they are cranking it up so they can short it and make a fortune on the way down when the buy and holds are all scrambling to sell their long positions as they lose their shirts to the same people who fooled them into pumping all their money into the market. Granny can eat dog food even though she contributed to the market indexed retirement fund all her life just like she was told to do. Save your money. Put it in your 401K and one day you too can wait for your "paper loss" to be made up by the market "coming back". "It always does." Hope you live long enough to get your money back. But don't count on it.
So why wouldn't he just buy S&P futures right along with them? If he truly knows that they're buying 'em it's free money right ?
FED BANK = GLOBAL CANCER on Financial systems !!!!!
There should be no surprise that they would not let the following stages of the crisis be decided by the emotions of the market.
by emotions I decide not to pay my comings bills and taxes
how is that?
The cabal pulling the plug sceanrio is exactly how this will play out.
They'll need to be back on their home planet by then though.
@Infinite QE: their home planet is Israel, no doubt that they all have dual citizenships and a villa in Tel Aviv
Yeah what's unbelievable to me is that this is just hitting people now. We have watched max drawdowns decline by 80% over the past 4 years. With the exception of October that is, and well the entire world saw the Fed step in there. And the biggest problem with any central bank trading in the financial markets is it completely destroys the integrity of the market. Market is an allocation of a finite resource i.e. money. Money is an infinite resource to central banks and thus destroys the entire funciton of efficient market valuation. As we see in the markets today. Everything is rigged.
http://www.firstrebuttal.com/2014/11/21/forget-orwell-and-rand-weve-gone-to-full-on-plato/
Fantastic article.
The critical point the author is making is that the mysterious buyer (the Fed) sitting at the table has unlimited resources at his disposal. You don’t know how much he has, or what he buys, but in effect he controls all the sellers. You want to sell, even a bad stock, he’ll buy it and he can spend an infinite amount. He destroys the game. You can’t have an exchange of value between two stocks because if some are worthless the Fed buys them anyway. There is no discipline.
We don’t have true markets. It is not a market when bad news on Friday afternoon creates record prices. And as everybody admits, the investors totally depend on the Fed for what the market performance will be.
The Fed can control the news and act on it; and the biggest news events they control are the release of the FOMC minutes and market decisions. The Fed knows in advance and can be there as the mysterious buyer.
The Fed can show that whatever news it was, such as Obama’s executive order yesterday, that it was good news for investors by using its buying power. When the market goes up on that announcement, it shows how the Fed controls the market.
An excellent article!. We should never lose sight of the fact that the Fed owners have infinite money to use to control the markets. And that this so-called QE is used as a distraction so the Federal Reserve’s stimulus action can be seen as legal, rather than as stealing, while market purchases and other actions can be taken under the table.
They may seem omnipotent today, but when the market deluge finally arrives, they will be hanging by their toes in the shadow the the guillotines.
The guy talks too much with demenos information.
Petulance in person.
In the background the guy is scared, are you with the ass in hand.
hehe.
They have infinite fiat, not infinite money (aka value.)
The central bank of the Weimar Republic had infinite fiat as well. It works... until it doesn't. When that happens -- well, the world has never seen a loss of faith in a currency on this scale. It will be epic, and a story shared with decendants for generations -- if we survive it.
Yes, but if I may clarify one important point on your comment.
"We should never lose sight of the fact that the Fed owners have infinite money to use to control the markets"
They have infinite currency, not money.
Money, currently only gold and silver, money is merely the representative device for a man’s capacity to produce and create.
or for the full quote.
"The people, always have been and always will be the ultimate backing commodity of our currency, because at its core, money is merely the representative device for a man’s capacity to produce and create. Dishonest men do not create or produce. They steal. Thus, the currency of a morally degenerated society is by definition degenerate itself. The currency of a degenerate society is the proxy not for a man’s ability to work and think, but rather a proxy for a man’s capacity to steal and evade work."
Ann Barnhardt.
I believe the "currency of a degeerate society" becomes "fiat".
Currency of a non degenerate society, where it is backed by some productive asset (e.g.: money, production, commodities) is properly currency.
Sure but to what end? Are you like most who believe they are painted into a corner or are you one to think maybe they are just outright trying to buy everything so they can be real feudalistic masters of all?
Seems the author thinks this is the king hell daddy of all pump and dumps.
If that is so, and I think it is, then why not short everything rock bottom and just wait for that magical day.
Ain't like its that far out.
Seriously, if they are pumping on one side and shorting on the other...why not take the same tact? You don't need to know what they know...just need to do what they do.
Anyway. Fuckifiknow.....
The Fed is training market players to buy the dips. On 10/15 the Fed stepped into a no-bid market and made it better. Traders are learning that they can confidently buy the dips, and the Fed does not need to support equites or slam the VIX. The traders do it for them.
The problem is that price discovery in all things has been destroyed. To ever get back to real price discovery will create wealth destruction and wealth creation like we have never seen before. The uncertainty will drive many market participants either to the sidelines, or to dump it all at any price. Most likely, trading and banking institutions will simply lock up and shut down. Real world price discovery will be the relative value of bartered things traded between neighbors.
Finally, you all are giving TPTB too much credit. Market interventions in '98 and '08 were just too easy, and, like an opium addict, they came back for more, to move things along, it was just such a short term expedient thing to do. Now they are as scared as we are, perhaps more so. The torches and pitchforks will be out. What they are doing, is to turn people against each other, and turn everyone into tribal beings. That's what the current politics and international relations are all about. Again, not because it is a smart thing to do, but because we are down the road now, and it is all they've got to keep themselves out of the front and center of it all.
Good luck to all of us.
BS. Can we accept the fact that its actually retail piling in, and that "not everyone who wants to be in is already in." This is the same argument that was being made at S&P 1040. There is easily enough investor money out there to take this thing into 2300+ by mid next year. US Fund managers and hedge funds have underperformed the market all year and need to pile into Apple, ect, to square their books. Its no secret that a lot of the non QE $ coming into the US market this year was from foreign sources (cleanest dirty shirt being the US argument). Next year watch this trend of US money managers continue to pile in, while zero will keep launching articles saying its a pure conspiracy. I'm not saying to buy the market, or that US data is actually good, but to be careful in what reasons you attach to certain outcomes. If this is too hard, you can continue believing every major move in markets is pure manipulation.
The only retail piling in is from 401k since the inflow is greater than the outflow. That will change in the next decade as the boomers truly reach retirement age.
you're an idiot. if the BOJ explicitly stating they were buying equities isn't 'conspiracy buster' info by itself, central bank jawboing during market dips and the consequent spike in their preferred indexes is. Why do you think Draghi, Kuroda, Bullard feel the need to raise expectations of more QE? to manipulate the market into the belief that the liquidity spigot will never be turned off, to keep 'inflation' of assets stable and rising. this isn't rocket science, it's a confidence game, literally.
You're a true moron. Why do you think Draghi keeps announcing whatever it takes every week? How does that help the economies of Europe? It doesn't. It only helps the equities and bond markets. The bond market on Europe has been stable. Only the equities have been propped. Notice every time the European equities markets drop, Draghi comes in the next day with his jawboning.
None of you idiots have addressed the problem with the article: he offers no shred of proof whatsoever for the mysterious accusation that the fed continues QE post QE. How gullible are you? All of your comments address the obvious central bank interventions of recent times but you are all too stupid to look for, or even ask for any proof of what this "futures trader" is saying. Go hide under your bed with guns and gold jackass.
Sure, why not? It's a big circle jerk:
Bankers>Central Banks>Wall Street>Elites/CEO's>Insiders>.Gov Mandarins>Bankers
Why I try telling everyone around me you have to fight back now before it's too late....best defense is a good offense....especially when you will be too weak and starving to fight back !!!
(But I can tell you all, no one is listening/cares)
You have to tell them HOW to fight back. That in itself seems to be a puzzle.
"Can't the definition of Plunge Protection be just that? Protection against a plunge instead of during a plunge? Doesn't propping the market equate to "Plunge Protection" since propping alleviates plunge and "protects" us? Does it depend on what the definition of "is" is?"...
Nice to know those now in-famous words of Billy C. could be recycled to speak of something more malevolent and dangerous than any "cum stain" could ever hope to be for a President let alone the average guy on Main Street!
Great post ZH
Thx
Duh! So, they periodically at strategic moments, transfer a couple of hundred billion $ to BOJ with instructions to buy the futures for them, etc. The New Normal includes this, but just as important is near-zero rates enabling massive stock buybacks. Enabling consumers to borrow and buy more crap they don't need and can't afford. "Gas prices are down, so consumers will have more to spend!" Never any mention that people will now have more they can put into savings. Since it is a crime to save money and the Fed punishes savers with .05% interest. Incentives abound like 8-9 year car loans, no qual loans, credit cards, and soon back to the everyone-deserves-a-home loans. Then comes loan forgiveness to free up more money and stall the inevitable debt disaster. The New Normal is here to stay, the alternative is total collapse.
Wow. You are getting .05% interest?
Titties!
No question about it..............all of this has been planned out, even before the 2009 MONEY TRANSFER........the creation of ETF's to more easily herd the sheeple.........the "assasination of MF GLOBAL"....the BANKSTERS of LAST RESORT, are resorting to their LAST RESORT - ANYTHING GOES!!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-30155308
"Under the Police Reform and Social Responsibility Act 2011, protesters are prohibited from setting up camp in Parliament Square. The law was introduced following a long-running anti-war protest in the square outside Parliament."
The Criminal Banksters and their pals in crime, the politicians don't allow the people to protest now
all well and good. just one fantastic blck swan scenario for shits andd giggles, OK? say there is a op just as you describe, In what currency are these trades settled? how do they account fr gold if the US $ is under the bus. also whatif someone at the fed is working for a foriegn power that intends to front run the fed at the most critical moment and spoils the party ouch that would be fuckin hilarious.what is this Israel going to take over the world.
I read the entire article and was a nice explanation of how the manipulation is technically done. This time is truly different at least in magnitude and the global coordination. The author could have added the recent dog and pony shows where the big banks have been brought to "justice" over their manipulations of every market so that the sheeple can be reassured that there is only minor manipulation going on and our government's are watching out for us. The farce continues. If one country steps out of line they will be crushed but I do believe it ends when a group of countries ban together and decide to upset the system.
BRICS. Why do you think Putin is being made into a viilain?
why?
because all dualist narratives that elevate the "good guy" require a "bad guy" for that delicate balancing act.
can't be "good" without a "bad".
all of this is irrespective of any real truths, as always.
that's history in a nutshell.
For every move there is a counter move, for every crash their is a counter rise, for every action there is a reaction..
assuming the Big Crash occurs.. the Surprise uplifting.. will be very pleasant... design the Rose garden that is going to be placed in the Shell crater.. that my friend is worth of your Intelligence and considerations c/h/l
"Every action there is a reaction" only exists in a real market with buyers and sellers. This market has buyers and sellers but they are all on the same side making it look like an actual market.
As long as there are humans there will be a real market. Eventually the market will exert itself again.
The more it is manipulated and screwed with the more epic will be the reconcilliation.
This entire scenario was foretold before the National Reserve (Rebranded the Federal Reserve) came to be. Of course those that warned about it were the kooks of their day and scoffed at. Like today.
1913 was a very bad year. The citizens gave up their freedom with the 16th amendment, the states gave up their soverignty with the 17th amendment and the national government gave up it sovereignty with the passage of the Federal Reserve Act. All was transferred to the Bankers.
We now suffer the consequences of our collective actions but still go about like all is normal even though it's easy to see something is not quite right. We've been warned...
NO fucking kidding- you just figured that out?
The BOJ did announce that they are buying ETFs to the tune of 20 bill USD per month - they are the biggest player in the japanese markets...
What did you think don't fight the Fed meant?
Sounds like someone lost some money going short recently, and rather than blame himself, he is creating a phantom menace to account for his own trading error. I lost some money by hedging and buying puts on this latest rally. I don't blame the Fed for that and in fact it seemed reasonable at the time. Sometimes a bet fails. Get over it.
Oh, and just because you've traded 25 years or whatever doesn't mean you are a credible source for proving the Fed buys futures. You offer no proof in this article. Only "gut feel". Just sounds like another sore loser in the markets who can't admit a mistake and wants to blame the devil for his sins.
Wow...
I hope you are not some Canadian working at the ST Louis Fed in charge of research?!
Are you the real moron or just an impersonator ? You sound rather convincing, as the real deal...
He offered the only proof there is available- numb nuts- there is a link...not that you would read it. It was the 1987 crash induced PPT or the Presidents Working Group on Financial Markets. Reagan's invention. (another glowing example of the damage of executive orders) Google the working group and see the members. That should tell you everything you need to know.
THis is a link to a report by Sprott Asset Management on the PPT. Pretty clear how it all works.
http://www.illuminati-news.com/pdf/TheVisibleHand%5B1%5D.pdf
the vampireocto is alive
Yes. Filling its appetite and growing.
The only way to dismantle this monster is to sever its head.
Bon appetit.
If you are looking to make bank in the markets, you better be at the nexus of money flows, otherwise the only way to win, is not to play. Long (life sustaining) physical assets.
reading this article was a waste of time anyone who doesn't realize the markets are rigged would not know much. where do people think 9 trillion dollars disapeared to in 6 years? but on the positive end of this the money can be put back minus the losses on the way down and the fools who don't believe the facts of this article will pay the ultimate bankruptcy.
"reading this article was a waste of time"
For you, perhaps. What about new arrivals that haven't yet figured out the game? What about young people just starting out? It's the young and unwary that fall for these snares. You want to warn them, or just be another smug elitist?
.....9 trillion dollars disapeared to in 6 years...
Like it was lost in the crack in the sofa? It was stolen.
This has been obvious for quite some time
Additionally, they've admitted they are buying to keep this wealth effect going. They figure it's the cheapest way to stimulate, but deny the fact that it's only helping the 1% and pushing the rest to the crapper
Can they destroy the dollar and thus turn us into a 3rd world country - of course.
But the US market is their playground - this is where most of the money is made - for the time being we still have the highest pay per capita in the world and likely the most investments to steal from.
If they destroy the US financially then where do they take their game? The BRICS will likely prevail as the world reserve currency - does Rothschild operate in Russia? I would think they operate in most countries but I can't see Putin allowing that.
Comments?
The Joos have been running Russia since the New Yorker Babylonians took over the Russian Revolution. It is all a charade. They are stateless master charlatans.
I'm not so sure of that. Putin speaks publicly and often of how bad he hates them and blames Russia's woes for the last 100 years on them.
Listen to David Duke on this, he has plenty of utube presence.
Listen Zero's.
I have to admit I only read the first 2 paragraphs. Sorry to disappoint everyone but for the love of god "STYLE" is important. Efficiency is the name of the game. Don't blather on. Tweet it the fuck out!
Thank you.
Raj from Bangalore.
Yeah, reading....it's for faggets.
Tweet this(grabbin my sack)!
Listen.
Brevity. Work on it.
Word
Listen.
Disappear. Work on it.
"Traitor Dan" would not agree with this guys opinion. He says the gold market is fair and free from manipulation.
Expose? Call me if I can get in on this Ponzi scheme!
This guy is so far behind the ball, he must be following Kim Kardashian.
Thanks for mentioning modern portfolio theory-the investment theory that emerged to manage risk that uses volatiility to represent risk as no one can define risk in a simple enough way to make it mathematically measurable. This has resulted in a series of outstanding examples of stupidity. My favourite is that the risk pyramid it is based on has never been reviewed despite it becoming effectively inverted in the last 30 years...still it was only ever a theory!
Which also means if you're around 55 you should be 70 bonds and 30% staaaawks . They are not so the Fed will literally kill them off in a few months
The question that I think is more important to ask-how did Woody Dorsey predict the top before Ebola weeks ahead-and then the bottom 3 weeks before?
Yes, this market is rigged-but maybe the master planners are turning things the way they want them at sentiment extremes-both on the greed side as well as fear.
Take a look-the full reports are open to the public.
http://www.sentimenttiming.com/free/
can't use it's properly? no credibility
renminbi mother fuckers :)
So the Fed nuked the dollar in 2008 and had no intention of doing anything but upon announcing "quantitative easing." Their only fear was of a hyperinflation so they took all of the "printing press money" and bought all the debt with it.
That meant...and indeed what in fact happened...was a stupendous rally in TREASURIES not equities as everyone let the Fed front run itself and then took the free money from the Fed (interest on reserves which still just sit there btw) and used it for...well, pretty much nothing.
Ironically enough however...
" After this year and especially this last 1900 point Dow run up in October, and post non-reaction, that I am 100 percent confident that that one buyer is our own Federal Reserve or other central banks with a goal to "stimulate" our economy by directly buying stock index futures. "
As we have seen over a 10,000 point rise, there is no wealth effect from the DOW, into the economy. 1,900 points is not going to change that. Making a billionaire, even more billionairier, isn't going to do anything for the average person.
So obviously that is not the goal, to help the average person. Their goal is to make the rich richer.
They've done it all through the option manipulation pain trade. Fed sells VIX. TBTJ/PD/BB market makers sell company specific options. They pump the bid and unload float scams into call OI. They sell vol in LC tech/real investments, but there they short and accumulate via put sale OI. Now, everyone is upside down. Only they (and those of us aware of the behavioral investing tactics and watching the option games closely) know what they've really done. Liquidate the trillions of float scams and buy gold and you will end their abuse forever. They ate hyperlevered against fundamentals. Don't use leverage. Liquidate float scams $ for $ and they cannot win.
"With the indoctrination of Modern Portfolio Theory..."
MPT- Modern Ponzi Theory
All Ponzi's end badly.
When I went to work with my Series 7 it took about a month for it to sink in that the alleged "free" market was not.
So...if you want to play where the rules are opaque, fluid and corrupted, then jump in. There are only two players. The dupes and the soon to be duped.
Good article laying the blame where it belongs, the fascist oligarchy we call the FED.
As a student of history I like PM. Yes, I am relic as well.
"The Fed boasts about having a printing press, and I guess this allows them to "fix" everything. They "print money out of thin air""
Money isn't created out of thin air- Debt has to be created.
"Details of this last market move:"
It doesn't matter how they are doing it. What matters is that it will end badly. That is always the bottom line. The American people will not be happy when that day arrives.
Me too and even stocks sometimes...
duh. they've been buyers of stocks and bonds since the 1980s (at the least)
there is no market there is only the fed [/buzzsaw99]
An article that writes "Dinesh D'Souza" loses a little bit of credibility.
Dinesh is great. Lois Lerner and Obama are the ones who ought to be in jail.
An Indian, a Jew and a black guy walk into a bar..... the Indian gets it. End of story?
"A Zero Hedge reader, and long-time futures trader, shares his views on the evolution of the "market", where it was, where it is, and where it may be going."
Where it may be going is much higher, but what difference will it make when it all comes crashing down? It always ends the same way. The time to have ended it was in 2000, rather than continuing to dig a much deeper hole.
No one is surprised that corrupt bankers and politicians are enriching themselves illegally at the expense of everyone else. What else is new? But what really makes the whole scam feel hopelessly beyond repair is the role played by the corporate media defending corporate interests, while throwing the public under the bus.
Once you have lost the First Amendment, you might as well throw the rest of the Bill of Rights away. Without a free press, free markets and a free society are goners.
Which is what makes the 2nd amendment so important.
Wow... I never thought i'd see the day when this site was filled with such trolls and dumbasses.
"This isn't a big deal."
Yea... not a big deal they create money out of thin air and then buy stocks with it, crash commodities, and completely destroy the pricing mechanism of the markets. No implications for that at all, none! Fucking morons...
So many of you are either straight up retarded, bought for, or begging to get your fucking faces ripped off when this unwinds because all you can see is the profits you've made off this fraud. You fucking dolts are seriously going to sit here and go "so what?" because you don't have any concept of how a market is suppose to function.
The entire point is price discovery for goods and services AND MOST IMPORTANTLY LABOR it's not so a bunch of ass hats can get rich off of gaming the price you dumb bastards... by corrupting the price signals it dooms the entire world economy to poverty and strips the earth of it's natural resources far faster than it otherwise should have been.
Go open up a book by Mises, Hazlitt, or Rothbard you fucking dolts and then come back here and tell me why this doesn't matter... the ignorance that now pollutes this site is fucking astounding.
So many of you are either straight up retarded, bought for, or begging to get your fucking faces ripped off when this unwinds because all you can see is the profits you've made off this fraud. You fucking dolts are seriously going to sit here and go "so what?" because you don't have any concept of how a market is suppose to function.
hammer meets the nail head.
I've done pretty well based on the assumption that interest rates aren't going anywhere and central banks around the world are going to print, whether it is QE or something else, don't be distracted by QE (ending of), these fuckers are going to print.
It's not a profit until you sell
Did they know that Americans are STILL armed? And, with a price on their heads and no cops to protect them, or greatly diminished, the masses will want some payback.
Dimon
Blankfein,
Bush
Clinton,
Rockefeller,
Soros
Gates
Buffet
We'll be coming for you as you float around on your yachts and hold up in your mansion fortresses. We WILL be coming.
You got one thing wrong. No bounty will be needed.
You forgot the really big fishes, Rothchilds.
TOTAL BULL. Just because something should happen, and just because something is already insanely overdue, doesn't mean it will happen.
It has already been completely obvious for decades that the crowd you're talking about needs to be vaporized, deserves to be vaporized, must be vaporized for egregious death and destruction and poverty to be avoided.
And yet... nothing has happened. Okay, I admit it, out there on that Nevada ranch was the one and only sign I've seen that anyone may be willing to take actions. Though even then, they didn't actually take the actions we know must be taken, which is to treat predators of all species in the manner predators must be treated (to effectively protect honest, ethical, productive, benevolent beings).
While the people you call "we" have been waiting and waiting and waiting to act, the predators-that-be have been militarizing their police state, building tens of thousands of armed drones, installing tens of millions of cameras and spy devices, and generally preparing for the possibility that all the "we are coming" talkers finally decide to take action.
The time for action was in the past, when the predators-that-be were less prepared. All you "we are coming" folks missed your window. Either you'll realize this and never act, or when you act, you will find out in no uncertain terms that you waited many years if not decades if not 101 years too long.
Even if you "we are coming" folks do come, you have not been preparing like the predators-that-be have. You could easily have been preparing, but you imagine that your emotions will be sufficient, that a disorganized, chaotic attacks will work. They won't. You should have been implementing combo intelligence gathering plus weapons mounted on remote-controlled quadcopters that you control, or taken some [many] preparations like these to actually be prepared.
Now, they are ready for you. And you are not ready for them. You are in the right, but that will not save you. To succeed, you had to be wise, smart, do your due diligence, develop your methods and devices, and have a variety of plans ready for every eventuality. You didn't. You bought a few more guns, you bought some more ammo, and sat around waiting for the enemy to be overwhelmingly prepared and ready.
So, you may be right, but you are not prepared. Which is why I got the hell outta dodge 3 years ago while the getting was still good.
I suppose one way to answer your post is to say that americans are indeed armed to some degree with weapons, but they are overwhelmingly disarmed intellectually, and overwhelmingly unprepared for any real battles much less revolution.
Which is sad.
PS: Those people you mention are rich, and not stupid. If you don't take them all out simultaneously, their well prepared defenses will rise and you're outta luck. And be clear, even if you get a dozen of those predators, the other predators won't care (they're predators), and they will come down on you and everyone else on the continent like a gigaton of bricks (if not nukes). Will you be prepared for that? Will you be satisfied if all you can do is make "a statement" by taking out one or two or three predators... just before you are vaporized, and then you have provided the required excuse for the remaining predators to turn the entire continent into one huge death camp?
My point is, what you are talking about is not a game. If you really mean it, and you're not just blowing off steam, then the people you talk about have only taken one of the many plans, actions and especially preparations that you would need to take to turn your righteous anger into success. Make no mistake, an all out vigorous and diligent effort to make preparations could still work. But this has not happening, not even in tiny bits.
Which is why those who really care about the issues you mention decided to get outta dodge for lack of others actually willing to take dramatic actions to prepare, and collaborate with others to be capable of effective coordinated action. We did prepare, we did take actions, it did cost us a lot to move elsewhere. But our choice of action was the only practical choice because obviously nobody is willing to actually prepare for what is to come... the extermination of everyone who refuses to fully accept their role as slave.
BTW, you never explained how "with no cops [or military, or private security/mercenaries] to protect them" comes to pass. I can assure you that those rich folks can and will hire very hard-ass thugs willing to shoot to kill without a flinch to protect them. Each of them will take out at least 100 random "armed angry citizens", partly because they are well trained (former seal team and their ilk), and extremely well prepared... unlike you and your buddies.
So I agree with your sentiment, but hope you wake up and smell reality. And then either get the hell outta dodge yourself (since that can work), or start organizing in the kind of ways you must to have a chance in hell.
I would say that thanks to Americans not rising to the occasion a long timer ago and throwing out these criminals in charge, their control has come into being.
In cahoots are the so called leaders in the EU like Cameron, Hollande, Merkel etc and those in the Middle East like Netanyahu. People who would rather hand over control of their countries to this criminal cabal.
But I must state that even the most carefully laid out plans do not progress in the required manner, due to unseen events which set a different course.
In previous times, the predators-that-be did not have the kind of advanced technology they do today. Furthermore, they did not have cooperative agreements with (or domination of) the vast majority of the predators-that-be in the other major nations.
Sadly, this time is different... for the reasons stated above.
Mankind is finished. Just watch and learn.
But yes, the course may not be exactly as planned, but any detours will be minor and easily controlled, if not turned to the advantage of the predators.
disagree...
even the most perfect system fails time to time and that creates the chain reactions they do not expect and are not prepare for
few example : Beriln wall and collapse of communism,collapse of Soviet Union (think Stalin with total control) DDR and RFN united (Germany)
this are things unthinkable just about decade ago.
In previous times, the predators-that-be did not have the kind of advanced technology they do today. Furthermore, they did not have cooperative agreements with (or domination of) the vast majority of the predators-that-be in the other major nations.
Sadly, this time is different... for the reasons stated above.
Mankind is finished. Just watch and learn.
-- How can the Fed conceal this activity on their financial reports? It is actually quite easy, if they are working in concert with other central banks. All they have to do is buy foreign equities and have their partners buy US equities/futures/options. Then it gets buried as "foreign exchange transaction" on the official statements.
-- How and when does it end? The Fed certainly can't run out of digits, but schemes like this require some measure of foreign cooperation to succeed. So, it has to end in one of 4 ways (1) They deliberately pull the plug, (2) foreign central banks stop cooperating, causing currency movements that blow the whole scheme up, (3) an essential physical commodity (like energy) goes into real shortage, and (4) world war.
-- We are nowhere near #3 (if anything oil is more plentiful). The Fed is stacked with Obama appointees, so #1 will happen if a Republican wins the WH in 2016. #4 may eventually happen, but is probably at least 5 years off, since the Islamic State isn't yet big enough to present itself as a true world conqueror. So, if the scheme blows up in the near term, I would bet on #2 or #1.
Andrew,
Gave you up arrow but have one point to pick with you. The world is not awash in oil. It is close to balancing supply and demand; however, one must understand that balance is only maintained thru "high-priced" shale oil. Peak Oil is real and NOT running out of oil (no more so than we ran out of buggywhips or whale oil) but running out of $50/Bbl Oil.
I guess ultimately, so long as fiat and rehypothecations and crazy Off Bal Sht SPVs and Derivs are allowed to infinitely leverage the system ad infinitum and enter into system thru some means, my point is a difference without significance but I'm a Petr Engr so welcome any thoughts along those lines.
Imagery
One word on oil: ABIOTIC!
http://www.petroleum.co.uk/abiotic-oil-formation
Not Likely. Let's try and keep it in the fairway here. ZH has been great at exposing clear frauds and thefts of Finance, WS, and District of Criminals.....Let's not give the Criminals Fuel to Discredit the Insightful and Intelligent Comments and Commenters here.
Not only are they trading, they are using HFT.