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Saxobank CIO: "Non-Productive Society Reigns Supreme In Most Developed Countries"
While reflecting on how many of 2014's "outrageous predictions" came true (and the still strong US equity markets), Saxobank CIO and Chief Economist Steen Jakobsen warns 2015 will see "deeper and deeper market corrections." If we continue to apply medicine to keep the patient alive, instead of dealing with the disease Jakobsen ominously warns, 2015 will see increased volatility and mean-reversion, "think in terms of October 1987 or 9/11." Maintain a balanced portfolio, he suggests, the preservation of capital suggests you take all the gains you have made this year and put them into cash to wait for better opportunities. "We are investing in a paperless society where everyone in the world is becoming either a banker, a fund manager, or a hairdresser - it's all about services. A non-productive society reigns supreme in most developed countries."
Full interview below...
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Exactly right - the non-productive rule.
I'll call on my obama-phone someone who cares.
Just make sure you juice me up my ebt card this month, Succa.
sarc off//
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the people discover they can vote themselves largess out of the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the canidate promising the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that democracy always collapses over a loose fiscal policy--to be followed by a dictatorship.” - Alexander Fraser Tytler
That's fucking rich coming from a parasite bankster scumbag.
Who fucking cares about productivity anymore?
I thought it’s ‘fun-der-mentals’ that don’t count anymore ? You mean ‘pro-duck-tivity’ also doesn’t count?
Doesn’t matter because we’re “exceptional” and “#1” at both producing nothing and having zero fundamentals.
So there !
I remember this one time, I got really productive and my wages paid in real, stable hard money, bought more every year as natural efficiencies led to moderate deflation in prices!
Then one day it all changed and my wages declined or stagnated as inflation took hold and the skim set in; all those massive gains in efficiency over the years flowed to somebody or something else.
It doesn't bother me really because NFL.
-American Booberosi
Was that back when men actually stood for something?
Correct me if I am wrong, but I thought that was the plan all along ...
I recall Greenspan saying when the manufactoring jobs were being outsourced that US will focus on services ...
Why is SAXO screaming Eureka ???
You are correct. This service sector economy rhetoric has been espoused since Greenspan took the helm and SAXO can't scream
Eureka, so true. I recall a professor back in university stating that we are all faced with a service sector economy in North America for the remainder of our lives and that was 25 years ago. Things have evolved to the point where manufacturing has to be brought back to North America in large quantities if we want to re-establish middle class full time jobs and build up our manufacturing capability and base. Balance in terms of keeping a manufacturing culture and farming it out to the third world has to be weighed in light of trade and sanctions with trading partners. Moving all manufacturing to China was a grave mistake on the part of the USA military and the corporate sector. The death of manufacturing was really the death of the American dream for most in the USA and CANADA.
You built manufacturing behind tariffs and try to use exchange rates are a modern tariff
I have heard a different theory\reason for the loss of manufacturing in the U.S. Ok, ready? You are in charge of crafting a strategy for a nation, maybe your time horizon is 100 years, maybe longer. What is an unfortunate byproduct of manufacturing? Pollution. What if you could export the manufacturing\pollution to the rest of the world and focus on something more important, more influential? What do you think is more important in the long run? Widgets or Food? What is happening to China right now? What direction is their farming economy going? What is happening to their ecology?
In the end, would you rather be the nation that provides rubber duckies to the world or the nation that feeds it?
Just saying....
The owners of the robots.
this quote is overdone. how about my version.
" a democracy or it's equivalent, the democratic legislative republic, cannot exist as a permanent form of government. it can only exist until the natural forces of special interest group politics, where by the wealthy business and landed interests, the nouveau riche industreis, the traders, the banks and the and hyper foccused ideological minority corporate religions (such as, for example, mormons , or hassidic jews)
discover that they can easily corrupt the government for their own ends by agreeing to hand out free scraps to the people, while tolling on about the virtues of patriotism and subsidizing entertainment, often make it more than free, making it a ubiquitous distraction to the public, so that most of the people are busy eating free food or consuming free entertainment, or abusing other substances of distraction such as perpetual indulgence in recreational drugs.
by doing this, and distracting the greater public by DUMBING THEM DOWN through DISTRACTION, the moneyed interests then simply buy the votets of the candidates who are no longer held accountable for their actions by the very public they are suppposed to serve.
the endless ratcheting of corruption continues until the political class becomes ever more expensive to bribe, the impoverished people demand ever more food and drugs and entertainments of increasing viciousness . and the growth of the moneyed interests themselves , having exploded their own internal bearacracies with needless useless eaters, then have to begin cannibalizing their own servants.
by this process , the 'democracy' always collapses to be followed by more bloodshed overseen by fewer people with fewer and more concentrated moneyed interests to command them, and fewer members of the public being served while more of them are subjugated."
i feel people on the problems of 'democracy' yes the free shit army persists throughout history. some people , most people, especially those people at the top , but in numbers most of the people at the bottom----WANT TO HAVE WITHOUT WORKING. we all do . the day you sucked milk from your mothers titty you learned about the joy of receiving without working. the day you had your first shit wiped out of your ass by your mother, you learned. the only 'work' an infant does is EAT and SHIT and CRY. and they get paid for it. so that how we all learned about this world we live in from the very get go. and woe unto those babies that weren't lucky enough to have loving mothers who cleaned their assess and breastfed them. let's not go there.....
so yes, it's getting tiresome hearing about the free shit army being the problem. everyone is the freed shit army to some degree or other. even those who deny it. but while the 'free shit army' is the problem, it's the 'other' free shit army----the army of moneyed interests that control everything and extract rent that are they problem. they too are the free shit army. only htye have real armies of police to protect their privilege. i'm willing to enteretain the hard work done by the leadership class has worth. some of it. a small portion of it. but exceedingly so , this is no longer the case. the vast majority of the profits obtained by this class are not for work, but for free entitlement shit. and they do a bang up job pretending their 'comensation' is 'earned' and for 'hard work'. this could not be farther from the truth.
so when it comes to challenging the real free shit army, the moneyed interests , what can you do? what do you WANT to actually do?
zh has so many commenters on here begging for revolution. i'm not sure they know what they are asking for.
the only catch to this hubristic attitude, is that 95% of the job of being in control is STAYING IN CONTROL. and that menas 95% of the job is preventing those without control FROM GETTING IT.
now----how do you think you would 'change everything' about the fact that if you got 'control' over everytghing that your job would no longer be primarily about keeping the job.
let alone, i should ask, how precisely do you think you are going to overwhelm those people and interests who are spending 95% of their concentrated efforts keeping you and everyone else from taking their power.
john lennon sang it "you say you wanna' revolution'' and even the great hippie himself explained to the free love generation that they didn't really want a revolution because they didn't really know what the fuck they were talking about.
anyone calling for real change as the solution ----better be willing to see their whole world turned upside down like every sandbox in the middle east and ukraine.
have you read about middle eastern and ukranian history? i'm not so sure you understand that an american revoluiton 2.0 is going to be a whole bag of cherries different than it was the first time around 200 years ago. it's going to be a little more like the french revolution......a much different set of conflicts .
I agree with this piece. I've been saying for years how my neighborhood seems to be full of fund managers, portfolio managers, wealth managers, financial advisors, etc. And I'm shocked at how many young people I meet that are going into that business. None of them do anything productive, and they make big money. This simply cannot last.
The industrial revolution pales in comparison to the automation revolution. Theres not much money to be made in maintaining the robots.
blah blah blah
What really PALES was everything in relation to J. Tull...
Via Wiki
J. Tull was an English agricultural pioneer from Berkshire who helped bring about the British Agricultural Revolution. He perfected a horse-drawn seed drill in 1701 that economically sowed the seeds in neat rows. He later developed a horse-drawn hoe. Tull's methods were adopted by many great land owners and helped to provide the basis for modern agriculture. This revolutionized the future of agricultural success.
A 400% increase in agricultural production almost overnight drove vast increases in wealth, tech, and societal changes.
The only similar change possible would be if cold or cheap personal fusion led to nearly free energy.*
*Another way to increase wealth by 400% would be to keep wealth static but reduce population by 75%. But what kind of madpeople would plan on that?
"...the non-productive rule".
Which is exactly why many formerly productive people are "going Galt" as we speak... and the phenomenon is catching up speed. Personal survival at a modest level (where there isn't much to tax), is definitely a way of starving the uber-gov beast.
Trillions printed for TBTF, and suddenly the rest are labeled as "non productive"? Gotta love that shit.
:)
:(
I suspect hairdressers would make better Central Bankers than the current crop of cretins . . .
What's this guy got against hairdressers that he feels the need to lump them in with the rest of the den of snakes? Hairdressing's honest work at least.
Hairdressing's honest work at least.
Indeed it is. Nothing like central bankers and politicians.
Services are not the problem.
It is counterproductive government, at all levels.
im not sure about government, i think slavemasters or banksters a better definition
Indeed, I guess this "economist" expects for his bread, wine, limo, corp jet, his home even, to sprout from a single tree that a unicorn shit out straining to get over a rainbow.
I tried to get into Hairdressing a few years ago; It was much to difficult.
Turns out it's more heavily regulated than banking.
This is the biggest dilemma I have about my profession. Conservatively speaking, about 75% of my work is on people with type 2 diabetes, something that is lifestyle driven. So how can what I do really be considered additive to society when I am making a living in this fashion? At the end of the day have I really accomplished and produced anything? So many times the answer seems to be no.
Miffed
I work with a guy who has it, passes out sometimes and always scares the crap out of everyone when it happens. He's also volunteer EMS, has the radio right on his desk. He's gonna retire in a week or so, so I'll go out on a limb here and say thanks for him, his wife, children, grandchildren and everyone he has helped too.
Productive and accomplished ;-)
dupe
Tx nmewn, drs and nurses often hear thank yous from patients but rarely do those of us in the lab by just the nature of our profession. Sometimes the lack of connection makes us underestimate the importance of what we do. You have reminded me. Of this I will give Thanks as we enter a week when should all be focused on gratitude.
Miffed
It goes way on past your position too, sterilization, laundry, the very tools you use in your lab. All faceless people, largely unrecognized but absolutely essential or the doctors & nurses look like idiots.
It is what it is Miffed, I know they can't do it without you & I, thats enough for me, we're both professionals at what we do or we would have been trashed out long ago, they know it too ;-)
Miffed, believe me we appreciate it, I've been through two heart attacks and a lot of my treatment relied on people in the lab. Kind of hard to say thanks when you don't have a clue where the lab is even at.
On the flip side of the coin Miffed, be glad you are in the lab.
Perhaps you should sit with some co workers and discuss what really goes on, on a day to day basis, with people who do the REAL work, such as house keeping, and CNA's.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VErPHQBG6gk
diabetes is insulin driven. calories in calories out is nonsense. cut out carbohydrates and increase healthy fats and type 2 diabetes disappears.
There is a strong genetic component. There are millions of obese, carb-consuming people that don't develop Type 2 diabetes. I know a couple of them.
edit: millions is an assumption. I have no clue what the number is. I just know that not all people with high carb intake are diabetic.
This kook thinks otherwise...
The food we were born to eat: John McDougall at T…: http://youtu.be/d5wfMNNr3ak
I'm not in the health care industry but my vote would be, it's aboslutely in the productive column Miffed.
Enabling people to the benefits of owning their own health is not wasted energy...
Helping your fellow humans is the most productive thing I can think of. That said, today with the expense of medical care many are completely devastated and lose it all by the associated costs. In that case I guess productivity would be in the eye of the beholder....
Hairdressers......
Window Dressers.......
What's the difference?
I can see from his picture why he might hold a grudge against hairdressers.
Hairdressing's work at least. fixed for you. no thanks needed
Exactly. Even if we all end up unemployed because of financial shenanigans and malinvestments, we still need to look good.
"We are investing in a paperless society where everyone in the world is becoming either a banker, a fund manager, or a hairdresser - it's all about services. A non-productive society reigns supreme in most developed countries."
Interestingly stated by a non-productive CIO.
Even worse. He facilitates malinvestments that promote non productivity in the rest of society.
This is like a mass murderer lamenting the violence of society...
" "Non-Productive Society Reigns Supreme In Most Developed Countries" "
This tells you all you need to know about socialism and its infiltration and progressive destruction of civilised western societies.
WELCOME... to Obamaville.
The problem is governmentalism.
Which is the result of the existence of government.
gov•ern•men•tal•ism
n.
the trend toward expansion of the government's role, range of activities, or power.
[1840–50]
gov`ern•men?tal•ist, n.
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/governmentalism
"Governmentalism" and "socialism" are interchangeable terms.
From your dictionary link: [governmentalism]: "the trend toward expansion of the government's role, range of activities, or power."
That is exactly socialism, whatever its advocates claim.
So government doesn't grow under conservatives?
scumbag
Market analysis for week of 11/24/14.
http://thecrucible.us
Hey dumbass, we've outsourced our labor to other countries. We service the stuff they produce for us.
they've been forced to.
Lets take Nokia as an example. Used to make mobile phones, got clobbered by companies which don't make phones themselves but have the chinese do it for them cheap...
So they dump the phone business on Microsoft who promptly fire anybody who knew how to make a phone.
Now Nokia has just produced the Nokia N1 tablet. Really, after getting rid of all their engineers who know how to do this? No, of course not. It's produced by Foxconn just like an Apple. All Nokia do now is give them the photo of the Nokia logo to stick on the box. Just like Apple.
One day real soon. The chinese are going to want the big bucks, a new set of brands will appear and the only offices in the EU and US will be sales offices.
A social creditor would state people are forced to seek non productive jobs in order to access purchasing power.
We are seeing the revenge of forgotten/ buried men such as CH Douglas & eimar o Duffy
Now this article is seriously full of shit.
A paperless (read cashless) society, yeah.
It doesn't matter what anyone thinks of where the cash comes from (how its created) you have to watch these fucking bankers like a hawk, they and .gov want a cashless society more than anything.
Total control of wage labor even after taxation.
The day cash dies is the day the lid gets nailed down on the coffin containing freedom.
They got all the kiddies diggin on it, never seems to occur to them that when the lights go out they can't get that jumbo mocha or whatever the hell they want...lol.
All we can do is keep bangin on em, sooner or later they'll "get it" ;-)
After the revolution we'll be left with a lot of hairdressers
"A non-productive society reigns supreme in most developed countries."
True dat!!!
The takers are in charge. The makers and/or their manufacturing plants have moved, or are moving, to countries that are more freedom oriented.
Is the U.S. still considered a developed country?
So the good liberty minded, freedom loving corporations have moved their production to more freedom oriented nations.
Really!
And all these years I thought it was for the cheap labor, no benefits and zero environmental concerns.
Silly me.
About seven or eight years ago (I believe) one of the HUGE chip manufacturers, I think AMD, was going to build a chip manufacturing plant in Arizona. Then the government decided that AMD would have to pay an additions $2 BILLION in order to comply with all of their regulations. AMD decided to build the plant in a country that has more freedom from government strangulation. Good for them. It's a shame that the U.S government simply doesn't care. They told them to leave - don't let the door hit you on the way out.
Yes, there are many stories similar to this one.
Arizona has some beautiful scenery. Raised in Phoenix (Laveen) I loved it. I can't find anything about what your talking about but I know AMD has 9 or 10 u.s locations, mainly R&D. Intel has/had many locations in Arizona.
Yes, Some of the regs and requirements are bone stupid. That said, one would have to look out for the local environment at least on a basic level. Yes? Look at what the corporations are doing to China's environment. They are already increasing their regulations and soon the corporations will probably move to India or Vietnam.
So long as there are nations that will allow pollution and the abuse of their citizens corporations will move there.
I'm up there screaming for the return of our production and jobs with everyone else but not if it will cost my life or others due to unsafe work conditions or pollution. I'm no tree hugger but surely we can produce the goods we need without the wholesale destruction of our environment.
"So long as there are nations that will allow pollution"
International laws aren't getting much respect these days from the sounds of things but regardless there is a push on, and the negotiations are kicking into gear now, for a legally binding global agreement focused on greenhouse gas emissions aka "pollution". Paris Protocol. Know what I mean?
"I can't find anything about what your talking about"
Watermelon much? Go back to Huffpo.
So you think our regulatory environment is "on a basic level" eh? If you ask me we passed that level in the fifties...
Does productive include fracking a new well at multiples of cost over revenue? Just asking.
Can the whole thing get on with imploding??
The suspense is killing me.
Not mentioned; non producers have to eat. Long corn rows!
This banker speaking of non-productivity reminds me of an old appropriate childhood saying
It takes one to know one.
I can't fathom a more dangerous entity to a productive nation than a banker. Turned this young thriving, energetic, productive nation into a broken squabbleing non productive welfare state in only one century.
Good job bankers!
The ONLY way we can pay interest (without accumulating infinite interest ... oops, maybe too late) is through our labor.
But, what if our labor does not add any value? Ya know, like a lawyer, a banker or a politician? Answer: then you must steal the value adding labor from someone else.
"The non-producers will inherit the Earth."
~ King Barry I Version of the Bible
The US is headed down a road that is not sustainable - in the not to distant future the only production that will matter is to obtain food, water, and shelter. The people in the service industry, including bankers, may perish. When the reset has run its course, the survivors will have a new appreciation of production and freedom from tyranny.
But you can't hold cash, it probably depreciates five percent a year already, less risky still to hold major dividend stocks that can inflate with the economy. That's the damn problem. And just a few weeks or months of hyperinflation and the cash is totally gone.
I see there are a lot of intelligent ZH posters who know Jacobson for what he is. There is narry a day that another Forex brokerage doesn't open up or promote products to that degree. It shows how desperate people have become to find "real" income or to believe the unbelievable. Trade CFD's, options, currencies for a living? WTF? Do nothing and you can get rich. I don't know what it will take for people to get their pride back but I sure know that this jackass isn't helping that process one bit separating people from their money while his firm takes a cut so that he can stand up there masquerading as someone who cares?
Dunno if I agree with this I can state for the record we're making EVERYTHING in the UK at the moment. I'm an engineer/inventor and living in the UK is like inventor heaven if I need any sort of material/component/part I can get it in 24 hours and most of this stuff is British made.
I think I need to take Steen Jacobsen to a UK industry show.