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Dallas Fed Unchanged in November, Despite 11 Of 15 Components Declining

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Of the 15 sub-indices under the Dallas Fed Manufacturing survey, only 4 improved in November with New orders tumbling, and wages, number of employees, and average workweek all sliding notably. So, with that in mind, thanks to a surge in 'hope'-based business activity outlook 6 months forward (from 13.3 to 18.3), the Dallas Fed printed 10.5 (against expectations of 9.0) and unchanged from October's 10.5. The number of employees shrank to its lowest in 6 months.

 

Dallas Fed headline UNCH...

 

But under the surface it's a total mess...

 

So - Hours Worked is going to surge in the next 6 months... but employment is going to tumble... and prices received are going to soar as growth rates explode even as New orders are expected to drop.!?

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Mon, 11/24/2014 - 11:47 | 5481591 Max Damage
Max Damage's picture

Nothing to see here, move along, and buy some more Amazon stock....

Mon, 11/24/2014 - 11:54 | 5481627 American Dreams
American Dreams's picture

HOPE - its whats for dinner

AD

Mon, 11/24/2014 - 12:12 | 5481684 SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

"'hope'-based business activity"

Wait - where have we heard this 'hope' thingy before? 

The logical dichotomies pointed out in the article are stretched so far that either the rubber band will snap violently, or people will finally start disregarding the regional FED reports.  Anything to discredit FED economists is good in my book.  We can 'hope' can't we?

Mon, 11/24/2014 - 12:12 | 5481702 junction
junction's picture

Someone tell Tyler that the Fed numbers are not supposed to be analyzed, that the bland summary part of the report is what counts.  Fed numbers crunchers on SSRIs just fill in new bogus numbers into their spreadsheet and, voila, they produce a new analysis that is just as wild-eyed wrong as those on previous reports.  I wonder if the Fed is hiring.  

Mon, 11/24/2014 - 13:29 | 5482087 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

Not to worry, these numbers will be run through the Krugman filter and show a 5% GDP growth for next year.....

Mon, 11/24/2014 - 11:50 | 5481603 4 wheel drift
4 wheel drift's picture

lies, lies, and more lies...

 

dept of b.s. & lies

Mon, 11/24/2014 - 11:50 | 5481608 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

what a shit show

Mon, 11/24/2014 - 13:30 | 5482092 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

Now, don't go demeaning good, honest feces.....

Mon, 11/24/2014 - 11:51 | 5481613 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

All future expectations should be removed from these fairly worthless indicators, and only actual performances should be used for comparisons, unadjusted, and for the last twelve months compared to the same period one year prior.

 

Everything else is just a waste of time.

Mon, 11/24/2014 - 12:52 | 5481885 SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

But without adjustments and numbers to manipulate, what would the poor FED economists DO?

Mon, 11/24/2014 - 13:33 | 5482099 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

Hit the crack pipe and heavy masturbation???

Mon, 11/24/2014 - 11:54 | 5481624 RabbitOne
RabbitOne's picture

So…they are hiring Obama’s illegal aliens on the side….

Mon, 11/24/2014 - 11:54 | 5481630 starman
starman's picture

Santa is restructuring (laying) off the green elfs and moving operations to China to hire yellow elfs.

 

Mon, 11/24/2014 - 12:00 | 5481659 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Yellow elfs work much cheaper.

Mon, 11/24/2014 - 11:54 | 5481635 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Green shoots, mustard seeds.  Drop in gas prices will mean more consumer spending (nevermind parasitic health insurance premiums and deductibles).  Jobs?  Who needs a job?  That's what credit cards are for!  Mom and Dad will make it better.

Mon, 11/24/2014 - 12:54 | 5481897 SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

"Drop in gas prices will mean more consumer spending"

The half life on that is pretty short.

Mon, 11/24/2014 - 11:58 | 5481646 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

The unicorns are going long.

Mon, 11/24/2014 - 11:59 | 5481652 yogibear
yogibear's picture

A 90% chance of the Federal Reserve doing QE  4 and continuing QE to infinity. 

Print  until the US dollar takes a huge hit.

Mon, 11/24/2014 - 12:43 | 5481857 winchester
winchester's picture

i raise, all in. 100% chance...

 

they have no fucking choice, if they cut QE in january in mid february half planet is nuked.

Mon, 11/24/2014 - 11:59 | 5481661 WTFUD
WTFUD's picture

Some of the finest magicians work at the Dallas Fed i'll have you know. Now you see it , now you don't.

Mon, 11/24/2014 - 12:24 | 5481752 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Calm down, skewed statistics are a completely normal symptom in central planning.

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