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It's Decision Time For Gold, Miners, And The Dollar
Submitted by mickeyman via World Complex blog,
Last month we saw this chart--in which the swings in the GoldxUSDX index had formed a triangle going back over a year. At that time we were quite close to the apex.
The last few weeks have been eventful. We saw a clear break below the lower trendline, followed by a bounce up above the upper trendline. It appears a decision has been made.
Barring further smashdowns, it seems we are moving out of the triangle and into a climb. Supporting this is the action of the last few weeks in the chart of USDX vs gold price.
In the last two weeks, we are seeing the impossible--a rise in the gold price and the US dollar.
This isn't as impossible as it seems--we've seen this before, from late 2009 to about mid-2010. It was a good time to be invested in gold equities.
Our current position on the chart is given by the yellow arrow. We are virtually in the same position as we were in late May of 2010. The yellow ellipse covers the area of the move of the last three months. Now is the time to be long gold and gold miners.
Notice that during the impossible trend in the past, gold and USDX never rose together for more than two consecutive weeks. The move was seemed to be a series of cycles and countercycles, over which both parameters increased.
As I've argued previously, rising gold and US dollar is the most economically favourable environment for gold equities--particularly those with production. If the number of dollars you receive per unit of gold increases, and at the same time the value of those dollars increases, your revenue increase will reflect both inputs.
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Don't worry they will manipulate the GOLD market to keep it down
Take it personal
Uhhhh. I don't even like reading about miners. In not selling anything, so I haven't taken the losses yet , but I have gotten my ass handed to me.
I just kept buying. If the dollar magically survives I will be better off having held them. I'm hedging that they might pull this con off on the longer term than we expect.
Nugt and Jnug took a beating but are primed for buying and 100's of % increases
I'm with you Green. It's a race between the declining days I have left, and $10,000 gold. It will happen, the only question is if I'll live to see it. Oh well, at least my kid will be well off.
I like miners....at the most fundamental level. However, mining operations are just like any other publically traded company...which are really full of people, who care more about job preservation and income appreciation than they do about shareholder value or wealth creation. This is the trend of the last 40 years in publically traded companies. I have nothing against people acting in their own self interest, but the blind assumption that organizations are full of people who are trying to preserve our investment (via stocks) in their companies now reflects days long gone.......so, this is why I don't like miners.
I think all eyes are on the Swiss Voters. They may set the stage for world financial events.
If you blink you'll miss it
Looking for one more large drop in the metals followed by a new bull.
You and everyone else. Think about that.
If you watch and measure, and record, just connect the dots. Think long, think wrong.
Don't hold your breadth...Banksters always win...didn't you get the memo...be like Hugh Hendry, learn to love the central banks...you'll be happier and richer
I can control my actions and my words and to some degree my thoughts. But I can't control my feelings. Rich or poor, I hope I live to see the central banks die an undignified death.
Yea, but sleeping at night is not pleasant.
Staying out of the market is better for your health.
1/3 Real estate (paid off preferable)
1/3 USD cash
1/3 Gold/silver coins
Sleep like a baby.
I think if I can bash my head against a brick wall enough times I can talk myself into jumping back into the market.....
Paper Gold is fodder for manipulation. Real metal passing from hand to hand in a hard sale, well, that is different. When I consider gold, I say "fuck the paper price". Solid metal put into my hand is worth Way More to me, and in future Way More to others, than the manipulated paper price. The smart people demand the feel of solid gold in their hands. The gold game, like Germany, is fraud and manipulation, theft and financial engineering.
Paper Gold will end up like all Fiat, good for wipping one's ass.
You're a terrorist if you invest in gold equity.
Bull syit premisis. A move out of a triangle is a worthless indicator unless the move occurs at or before the 2/3 point.
They will just do an EO to seize gold and guns. People aint gunna do crap. Americans are pussys.
You can say that again
Violence solves nothing.
But you feel so much better afterwards...
that assumes you are still alive ... thats not a given
Gonna be pretty hard for the US to justify repossessing a Canadian citizen's Canadian brokerage account which holds primarily TSX stocks, but I suppose anything is possible.
They will just do an EO to seize gold and guns. People aint gunna do crap. Americans are pussys.
says the pussy with no gold or guns.
I'm issuing a personal executive order for the goverment to suck my dick. If they don't follow laws neither do I.
Having seen some of the trolls that work for the government I have to say, that is all you bro. Otherwise, I do share the sentiment.
Not sure why the negatives. Your assumption has been proven time and time again. I guess it's just difficult to admit reality,,, I mean who likes to be called a pussey...... even if you are.
Some are, some aren't. Same as it ever was.
3% of our ancestors kicked the most powerful army/navy in the world's ass. 1% of us now is 3.3 million. Plus we're better armed and mostly ex-military. We'll kick any military in the world's ass again, including our own. So keep dreamin shitball. It won't turn out like you think.
That's OK, lots of Earth isn't America.
dont be long gold. just buy the damn metal and foggedaboudit.
dont be long miners unless you trust your $ with this guy..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SSST23SGp04
Gold and silver are on backorder, platinum however.....
I'm long metals, but do not hate on the miners as someone has to dig the stuff up.
My kids did an art project very much like this. Unfortunately the grade was not good.
If you want the POG to rise then the paper market has to go. Gold is always available at the right price (physicaal gold that is) if you are keen on paper gold, hold off, it will go lower. If you want the metal you should buy now because when the paper market fails the supply will dry up.
I fucking hate squirly squigly - grams, seriously there has to be a better way to chart data than those horrible things.
Its like a graph that came out of satans anus after he ate spicy chili.
At the very least the line should be color coded in sections according to time lines with a spectrum so you can visualize the progression, a gradient on the line somehow.
Precisely right: Every time I have multiple segments of interest each will get its own colour, equation & off to the side a legend indicating the relevant time period.
This is not hard to do: I do this in LibreOffice and on occasion I touch up images in GIMP so as to have transparency layers. Sometimes transparency layers with multiple graphs is easier to see "under" a thing instead of having a heap of graphs beside each other.
example 1, https://flic.kr/p/ochVHw
example 2, https://flic.kr/p/oYs6vq
ah yes, of course! the old ejaculating camel pattern!
What the fuck am I looking at?
"What the fuck am I looking at?"
I just ate some acid- ill let you know soon.
i see kermit, dumbo and a skeleton on a motorcycle
or multiple tire tracks across multiple muppets
Who said alchemy don't work in reverse?? They've sure turned our gold into worthless lead! When the alchemists are driven from their thrones I'll expect an upward price move.
Still pretending the markets are real.... LOL.
Seems the higher the education the dumber they come.
I don't know what all those fucking colors and lines mean but I hope it's good. There was a whole bunch of squiggly lines and colors a few years ago and I got my ass kicked. And there's been a bunch more colorful lines and squiggles since then and I keep getting my ass kicked. And when someone comes out and says if the squiggle goes this way it's good and if it goes that way it's bad, it always goes the bad way, no matter how much anyone is buying. I'm not real sure about all those squiggles and colors anymore.
Signed,
Gold bug (with some silver) with a sore ass.
The human brain is wired to "see" patterns even when they don't exist.
Stock up on lube. Make it easy.
To successfully achieve a higher education you have to be more focused on pleasing a faculty advisor to include pandering to the advisor's pet theories, and less focused on rigorous objective-fact-based research.
In the objective sense, therefore, higher education makes you somewhat stupid.
You are correct, except for the higher education part. I believe that the entire U.S. educational system (K-12), either accidentally or by design, is geared to collectively make us a more stupid society. Once kids learn the basic reading, writing and math skills, their remaining education should be based on their specific interests, abilities, and independent thought; not some arbitrary one size fits all education, determined by some monolithic institution, inhabited by egocentric scholars, enamored of their advanced degrees.
These charts mean nothing, since they are derived from a fictional, manipulated paper market. The prices are whatever the big banks want them to be. Meanwhile, China, Russia, and India are sucking up all the available phys at these ridiculously low prices. The whole thing is a pathetic joke, but not very funny.
I get it....that's one of those Rorschach charts...
yup...says I'm crazy for continuing to hold all these miners for the last 4 years, but what the hell...I haven't lost anything if I haven't sold them yet, and if I'm crazy for scooping up piles of cheap silver phyzz as insurance against the collapse of the fiat shit paper system, then I guess I'm a fucking madman then.
A couple of years from now, these will be regarded as the ‘good ol’ days’; when “I should’ve bought more”.
A couple of years from now, people will have a better comprehension of all those “cash equivalents” that are collateralized by gold.
“Cash equivalents”? Let’s take a little time to identify some.
We can start with governments’ attempt to guarantee bank deposits, on a world-wide basis. By this device, if a bank failed (was seized by FDIC), all deposits over $250,000 were lost.
This created a major problem for individuals and companies with larger deposits. A corporation, for example, stood to lose big time on a deposit of $500, 000, 000 if its bank should fail.
What to do… what to do?
This created a demand for so-called zero-balance checking accounts (they go by many names (trust account, segregated account et cetera). By these accounts, positive balances were swept into US Treasuries at the end of each day, leaving zero in the checking account over night. Now, if the bank failed, there was no loss.
But, a problem arose: a world-wide problem: large depositors all over the globe had this problem; and there were debt instruments of a hand-full of governments that could be used as parking lots for large amount of “cash”.
The problem? There weren’t enough US Treasuries. This led to an enormous demand for a suitable alternative: namely, Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), to the tune of some $15 trillion.
When the unprecedented fraud of such MBS was discovered, MBS began to lose major chunks of value; then sold to the Federal Reserve. Thus, collateralized by assets of the FR; and the only such asset that had a semblance of reality was a scrap of paper listed as “gold certificate” on the FR’s asset statement; this, in turn was collateralized by another scrap of paper possessed by the US Treasury listed as “gold or gold swaps” on its asset statement.
The phrase, “gold swaps” should tell you there is probably no physical gold at Fort Knox.
Now, what are some of the “cash equivalents” collateralized by this missing gold at Fort Knox?
One, all issued Federal Reserve notes (the scrip you and I carry in our pockets); 2) all reserves of the American banking system; 3) all US Treasuries ($16 trillion, and counting); 4) all $ denominated paper held by foreign institutions (approx. $3.6 trillion); 5) the lost value of all MBS (25%-50% of $15 trillion) et cetera.
All these are “cash equivalents” partly because all holders imagine they are able to convert them into “cash” or “bank reserves” at an instant’s notice; and because the paper trail of counterparties leads directly back to the scrap of paper held by the US Treasury.
So, now our task is to establish an equality between,
“gold and gold swaps” and all those “cash equivalents” listed 3 paragraphs up.
Is the answer $7000, $70,000… infinity?
One thing is for sure, it’s only a matter of time before we see the last alternative.
How long? It mostly depends on how far and wide my findings are distributed, and how soon; for, I am not aware of anyone else who is even mentioning those factors above.
Has anyone else noticed that the daily % price swings on mining stocks the past two months is like they were high tech high betta stocks. Many swing 3%-4% per day.
honestly been too lazy to scatterplot it. Maybe just for shits 'n' giggles I should. There's always freestockcharts.com -> you can download the data & put it in Excel / LibreOffice
compare the historical price of gold to the gold miners index and tell me why you would ever invest in the miners, it's pissing money away.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vWz9VN40nCA
I think you are all given ultra power to the banks. They are losing control of this market ie trade is going to Asia from LBMA, Russia and China and India are buying more gold/silver than western banks can cover with whatever supply they have left, other countries are seeking to repatriate their gold ie Switzerland maybe, the big trader JPM is now just hedging leaving the heavy lifting to Goldman and Citicorp and they are not able to hang on when GOFO rates are so negative despite the action in gold/silver being positive. I would not attribute that much more power to the banks its mostly used up.
USDX has no real correlation to gold; it's just not in the equation. And what is in the equation isn't adaptive to the bond rates, QE amounts or forex rigging.
During the 30's Homestake was a good place to be.
Gold will surge to $1500 in the coming months. That should bring about a 2-fold upside move in the miners. NUGT to 90.