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US Stocks Surge To 'Best' Streak In 86 years
The last few weeks have been the strongest and most consistent rallies in US equity market history. US equity markets have traded above their 5-day moving average for 27 days - the longest such streak since March 1928 (h/t MKM's John Krinsky) and all amid GDP downgrades, missed PMIs, and downward earnings outlook revisions. Given the holiday week, it is hardly surprising volume was weak today. Stocks were very mixed today with Russell 2000 and Nasdaq leading the way (along with Trannies) as Dow and S&P showed very small gains - to record highs though. Bonds were also bid with a strong 2Y auction extending the drops in yields (0-2bps) led by 7Y. The USDollar fell 0.4% - led by EUR strength - as JPY, CAD, and AUD all weakened. Despite USD weakness, oil (big drop intraday), copper, and gold also dropped on the day with silver ending +0.25%. VIX dropped to 12.66 - its lowest close in over 2 months.
27 days and counting for the S&P... an 86 year record... (within a year of this exuberance stocks had doubled and then halved!!)
This is what happened the last time the market did that...
On the day, Dow lagged, Small Caps led...
As eveything was playing together until the HFTs got control of AAPL and smashed Nasdaq higher...
But yet again bonds weren't buying it
Treasuries were also bid...
The USD lost 0.38% on the day- but CAD, JPY, and AUD all weakened as EUR strength drove USD weakness
But that did not help commodities as Oil tumbled notably intraday
Charts: Bloomberg
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Ain't that the way it always is?
Rallies keep on going to the top until they drop.
pinch me if i am awake. This nightmare doesn't end.
Well according to those charts, we can now expext the S&P to ramp up another 100% over the next 1 1/2 years, and only then start a long continous crash.
Tyler's saying its now time to buy.
Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.
Stock market bulls have been right! For YEARS now.
Does that mean we BEARS are wrong? Well, maybe we have been until now... Stocks are up some 20% per year since March, 2009 (as well as over the past three years). Gold has, well, not done so well.
So, I have to ask...:
"What if We BEARS are Wrong?"
http://goo.gl/Kg7Nth
(Short answer: DIVERSIFICATION, fishez!)
H/T to ZH-er buzzsaw99 for inspiration...
You know, DCRB, that question is justified when you're in the investment business. But with PM's I'm into insurance and not necessarily chasing yield, although I wouldn't mind gold blasting through 10,000 dollars. If anyone tells me how stupid I've been with gold these past few years, he is simply barking up the wrong tree. It was never about profit, at least not in my case.
FOFOA (my favorite gold analyst) says $55,000 - $100,000.
I'm with you, I have owned gold since the 1990s. But, lately stocks have been on a tear! That, of course, is subject to change...
Diversification should be one of my other middle names... :)
Sounds crazy but there is almost zero debt for sale right now.
We will havea hundred billion auctioned off in the USA this week...but almost zero will be bought by retail.
The amount actually available is going to drop massively over the next year as well (quite possibly surpluses by next year actually.). Since the Fed is still monetizing interest on the debt that says to me "zero debt."
Of course that's still 13 billion and counting for a single Ford Class Aircraft Carrier. And the plan is for 11 more of those.
Maybe we can take the old ones and put the "used nuke" to heat our home or something?
I wouldn't care if it reached a million dollars an ounce. That just means that money is worthless, not that I'm going to get instantly rich by selling my gold.
You could get a huge price spike in lumber actually. There certainly is a lot of it.
this is my main beef with ZH apart from all the fantastic work that is being done to fight against corruption.
there is no correlation between GDP, job rate and stock market performance..
research it you will see..
Zaphod, that's what I was thinking! Looks like 1 1/2 years from now we will crash back to almost this level, maybe crash back to like 2080 on the S&Ps. Wonder how that will feel.
Sentiment has been at extreme levels for a while. There was a turn set for November 18th-which caused nothing but sideways tape. Turns dates are starting to show up-which has us thinking-upside may be limited-but beta chaser-underperforming fund managers-may chase small caps.
Buy the worst performing index-hoping to catch up. Never a good reason to buy-and we have seen this before-which ends ugly-always. Sharp drop is hard to expect-heading into seaonly bullish time period-but how could anybody be surprised if we do. Here are some free looks at sentiment
We created wealth for some folks!
luckily for the world, this bubble is different from all others. it is unpoppable.
the Fed holding its hand all the way up, because no one loses when the stock market goes up forever. right?
up good, down bad. we don't need price discovery, we need up.
Bullish?
Yes, bullish.
Fasten your seatbelts ...
"but yet again bonds weren't buying it" LOL... great comedy TD
I see a hundred year bull market coming ! ....
Faster seat belts and put your trousers in your mouth incase ...
im being serious, does the fed fucking by aapl all fucking day?
i mean geez, that fucking company seems to add 4-5 billion in value on a daily basis, its comical. no pullbacks in that stock at a time where they are prob the least innovative they have been in years.
all they do is come out with there shitty new ishits and the sheeple flock to buy it even though its basically the same as the old one.
fuck aapl and fuck the fed. another fucking all time high, what the fuck is new in this joke of a ''market''
I think you forgot a fuck in your third paragraph there.
just realized that, unfortunately i can not edit that, but thanks for pointing it out.
You're welcome. I'm a bit of a hair-splitter when it comes to consistency in style. Nice comment, by the way.
to be fair, there are thousands of equities worse than aapl in this market on their valuations.
o no doubt, but that nevertheless, since they did the 7-1 reverse split, the stock has pretty much been going up in a straight line without a single pullback, specifically over the past month.
i would understand if they were still an exciting company, but aapl has been shit since steve jobs passed.
Some of the smartest guys out there are losing money in this market because they are making things too complicated. It's very simple. The central banks are explicitly backing equities. The guys who just close their eyes and trade the prevailing trend are the ones making money. Don't let emotion cloud ones judgement when operating in this market. It could be very costly.
Why did the market crash in 2000, if the fed could back equities? How about 2008? What happened in 2011/2012 with Greece? Wasn't the ECB backing Greece?
"The four most expensive words in investing are: 'This time it's different." Sir John Templeton.
Actually, we're heading for an even more expensive sets of words: "This time it's worse." (Me)
A few reasons this time is different. Zero volume, Zero Liquidity very easy to move. HFT, and the correlations to vix USD/JPY have never been stronger....
Also the complete utter suspension of any laws regulating trading havent hurt.
this indexs is in a last phase in a bull market that started in october. just stright up, up up
how much can extendet? cople of months?
It's Bodhi's 50 year storm. "Death on a stick out there mate."
vaya con deeos...
Quite a sight....
Sweet, Tyler indicated what happened at a previous similar top. Time to go long.
As I've noted, ZH on Apple has been awful, but you can't be good at everything.
Sorry buddy I think you made a wrong turn you want ->>> businessinsider.com
They are anti-gold and pro fantasy and illusion.
the money from all those stock repurchases has to go somewhere, baby.
Now really, what do expect!...CRIMINALS will be CRIMINALS!!
No "shorting" announcement, coming soon
fucken-eh, ha...
This irrational exuberance - ok, I don't like the Prince of Darkness either, but he did coin the expression - sure is lasting a hell of a lot longer than I had anticipated.
This is one of the reasons I stopped explaining that we're all going to hell in a handbasket. Made me just look plain silly. It would seem they have finally found a cure for gravity.
Crazy world, right?
"Dow, go at throttle up."
Justice for Amadou! i mean Trayvon! wait, Mike! and OJ!
Month-end turn starts tomorrow. Next 6 trading days should be overall +ve.
Reminds me of something a wise old investor once told me.
"Buy every day, then go away."
"27 days and counting for the S&P... an 86 year record..."
tomorrow will be
28 Days Later
from liftoff
looks like tomorrow will be 'knockout game' on a large scale... best to pack some heat
The s&p has only had three down days in November, the largest being .3%. Give me a break. You would think that the the central banks would at least make a better attempt to mask their interference. Keep in mind that this is after a huge run up in the last two weeks in October.
Jap QE, Europe QE....there's your answer for the past month. Forget fundamentalz bitches.....its all QE injected from here on out till WWIII, the PLANNED collapse or if they decide to try and raise rates (which wont happen most likely)
Central banks globally have realized they can print money and buy real assets, including stocks, at any price and no one says boo about it. Why wouldn't prices just keep going up? No one said it had to be fundamentally justified by real economic value added. The only fundamental that matters is that fiat cash can be created out of thin air in endless quantities and be used to bid up prices up until, of course, that exact and inevitable second where it loses all value.
This story has occured many times throughout history. Not much different here. These straight up periods in stocks, real estate, etc. go on until they don't and then implode.
best comment today was by someone on cnbc after the close, he said the ''market'' will ignore most things this week as this week tends to be a positive week for the ''markets'' normally.
lol, the ''market'' has been fucking ignoring reality for the past 5 years, it does not mattter what week it is. wow, some ppl r so lost
be afraid, be very afraid....
US economy grew at over 8% in 1928. Almost zero inflation as well.
I don't know of anyone who says that's the case now.
This is starting to look EXACTLY like Bernie Madoff's returns.
Peak full retard....we're THERE, dude!
The Bears might as well hibernate for the winter, and maybe all of the next few years, if the Fed gets its way. The Fed and its Wall Street partners are not even bothering to conceal their market manipulations. It is entirely possible that the market will continue to ever-higher levels, while bond prices remain high, interest rates low, and PM prices suppressed.
The stock and bond market are eminently controllable. Easy for the Fed to do. As long as PM prices are set by the paper market, these are easily controlled as well. What is not being controlled is Main Street, and it is being left to wither and gravitate to welfare.
The Fed and other central banks have learned how to control markets. Now they must learn how to manage the underlying economies and the increasing disconnect between the markets and the underlying economies.
Skillfully said by a card-carrying member of the PINKO COMMIE FASCIST Council on How To Destroy Capitalism and Individual Liberty in One Fell Swoop....
I turned off my machines almost a year ago because I have been psychologically hurt as a trader. I found myself passing on shorts and only comfortable with long positions. I remember a time years ago when I would short just as often. I'm now about ready to completely turn my back on the rest of this crap, such as the political destruction of our country, giving me headaches day in and day out. I just can't take this anymore! When does this madness end???
I actually did stop paying attention to the markets for a few months and avoided the news, etc..and found I had become much happier. I need to get back to that because life isn't long enough to spend so much time with frustration and anger. In the end as I take my last breaths, will I actually think or say, "I wish I had spent more time being pissed off at the fed!"?
suitable for an almost six year bull run
thanks for printing yellen you foul pig
ever seen a pressure cooker blow?
Haven't US Treasuries done even better YTD?
To the moon, Alice.
Or Janet.
Day after day after day, the stock market continues to soar ever higher even after important economic numbers had been released that came in below expectations. As the stock market continues to remain at historic highs please tell me what is so good? What is so much better?
As I see it the weight of carrying a large number of unemployed and people who have dropped out of the work force is wearing society down through attrition. The article below points out some of the glaring flaws in the argument that blue sky lies ahead as the stock market seems to indicate. As I look at a landscape of empty and under-leased buildings that once housed thriving businesses that provided Americans with good paying jobs I'm forced to ask, How are things getting better?
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/10/tell-me-again-how-things-are-getting.html
YYYYYYYYiiiiiiiipppppppppeeeeeeeee a chicken in every pot.
I'm beginning to see a trend here on ZH.
Most are pretty much saying it's going to keep going up, a complete 180 from a month ago.
When everyone says to buy, buy, buy, you all know the rest. Even I'm starting to think we're going to keep going up while I type this.
But, that tells us something doesn't it?
I still believe the markets will win in the end, and this time is no different than any other time in world history. It will win and it's going to be very ugly, to put it mildly.
The moment investors start questioning the validity of this rigged market, we will see absolute capitulation.
http://www.comstockfunds.com/default.aspx?act=Newsletter.aspx&category=MarketCommentary&newsletterid=1790&menugroup=Home
We, at Comstock, were shocked at the praise given to the Fed when we don’t believe the Fed rescued the U.S. from the ravages of a “liquidity trap” at all, but even more shocking to us was the response of the interviewers. We are sure that there were not many people watching on TV that understood the definition of a “liquidity trap”. Yet the economist was never asked to explain it. Hopefully, in this comment we will explain what a “liquidity trap” is, and why we don’t think the Fed avoided the “trap”. We will also explain why we think the Fed painted themselves into a corner and will have to keep rates very low, continue increasing their balance sheet, and maybe even resort to QE 4. We are skeptical that going back to the same old fashioned government subsidies used by the Fed over the past six years will work any better than they did for the past six years.
A “liquidity trap” as defined by BusinessDirectory.com, is a situation when bank cash holdings are rising and banks cannot find a sufficient number of qualified borrowers even at incredibly low rates of interest. It usually arises where people are not buying and firms are not borrowing (for inventory or plant and equipment) because economic prospects look dim, investors are not investing because expected returns from investments are low. People and businesses hold on to their cash and thus get trapped in a self-fulfilling prophecy. Wikipedia agrees that a liquidity trap is caused when people hoard cash because they expect an adverse event such as deflation, insufficient aggregate demand, or war. Thus, if an economy enters a “liquidity trap”, further increases in the money stock will fail to lower interest rates and, therefore, fail to stimulate.
We believe that this country and many other countries across the globe are intertwined in this “liquidity trap” presently. It is clear that the Fed has tried to pump as much money as possible into the U.S., but for the past 50 years M1, M2, and M3 have grown at around 7.5% and this past year the Ms grew at 1.5%. According to the Federal Reserve figures and Moebs Service the average checking account balances have averaged about $2,000 for most of the post WW II period, but now they have grown to $3,700 in 2011, $4,400 in 2012, $5,000 in 2013, and $5,800 now.
We are clearly in the same “liquidity trap” that Japan has suffered from for the past 24 years. This is the main reason that this economic recovery from the “great recession” is so weak. We understand that the 3rd quarter GDP came in at 3.5%, but the U. S. has been growing at around 2.2% over the past 6 years. The average recovery from recessions since WWII has been closer to 5%. That is just about double the recovery rate we are experiencing today following the worst recession since the “great depression”.
There was a lot of trepidation in the U.S. stock market as investors were concerned about QE 3 ending. Many investors were worried about the ending being similar to the 12% and 14% declines that followed QE 1 and QE 2. Instead, the markets handled that fairly well, which surprised us.
Then the news came out of Japan! The Bank of Japan (BOJ), the Ministry of Finance (MOF), and the Government Pension & Insurance Fund (GPIF) decided to do even more than our Fed. The BOJ raised its goal for the monetary base to 80 tn. yen from 65 tn. yen. The central bank’s governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, stated that this was aimed at “ending Japan’s deflationary mind-set.”
This past September, the GPIF was supposed to invest in more Japanese equities (going from 12.5% to 25%), but postponed the move until year end. They surprised most global investors last Thursday by not waiting until December. They announced that they would double their positions in Japanese equities to 25%. But, they were so concerned about deflation they also raised their positions in international equities exposure from 12.5% to 25%. They raised the cash to make these investments by trimming their domestic bonds from 60% to 35%. This announcement drove up all international markets significantly this past Friday (including a 7% upward move in the Nikkei).
We suspect strongly that this outrageous surprise move will not help the Japanese market over the long term and be just as ineffective as all the other moves the Japanese made over the past 24 years. Remember, they tried our form of QE about 20 months ago with no apparent inflationary results. Their latest quarterly GDP was down about 7%. They will keep trying to offset the deflation in Japan by exporting it to their trading partners by driving down their yen in relation to their trading partners’ currencies. This is called “competitive devaluation” and we have been stuck for years on this part of our “Cycle of Deflation”(which is attached). Soon, many countries that are caught in the “Cycle” will be forced to move down the “Cycle” to “protectionism and tariffs” and then next to “beggar-thy-neighbor” (an example of this is Saudi Arabia lowering the price of oil today in an attempt to gain market share from the U.S.). They are doing this in an attempt to export their deflation.
This global deflationary environment has resulted in a Central Bank “bubble” that we believe will end badly both here and abroad! The reason for this difficult deflationary environment all over the world is explained very well in The Geneva report titled "Deleveraging, What Deleveraging?" It explains that, most believed that the 2008 crash (caused by the debt explosion) would result in deleveraging. But, instead, due mostly by government spending, worldwide debt grew rapidly. According to the report, global debt as a percentage of GDP has risen 36 percentage points since 2008, to a record 212%.
The Cycle of Deflation
http://www.comstockfunds.com/files/NLPP00000/581.pdf
so after all this time we now know the key to a strong market is
weak economic underpinnings
high unemployment
inflated fiat
open borders
deceit, lies and a treacherous lawless government
abandoning our allies
being the world clown
having a moron in the white house
LET THE GOOD TIMES ROLL