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30 Year Yield Drops Below 3.00% As Richmond Fed Tumbles Most Since 2006
Despite the clear message from stocks that everything in the world is awesome, 30Y Treasury yields have tumbled back below 3.00% - 1-month lows. Perhaps the slew of disappointing data is right after all that the US is not decoupling... just don't tell stocks. Against expectations of a 16 print, Richmond fed printed 4, plunging from its exuberant 20 levels last month. This is the biggest miss since Jan 2013 (and biggest MoM drop since May 2006) as new order volume collapsed, employment and workweek tumbled, and most major future expectations indices dropped.
Richmond fed collapsed...
What do stocks know?
As 30Y broke back below 3.00%
Richmond Fed Breakdown...
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You better be buying this shit before 3% seems like the buy of a lifetime (as 14% was the buy of a lifetime in 1982).
Yes, think of the potential once rate go negative in real terms!!!
Winning!!!
So where is this rate hike, since the economy is so strong now, seems like perfect timing right? What are you guys waiting on?
Just started a mortgage refinance to take my 30 to a 15 year. The orginator was asking if I wanted to lock the rate, but due to the mortgage rutt I see in the market and the jaw boning of the Fed, I figured rates would drop a bit more. Anyone have any thoughts?
Look, unless you are a bank, your rate (and your fees) can be whatever they want it to be. Lock in the rate. You will own the property sooner, period.
Remember, ownership has it's own privileges and rewards. Just ask the owners at the Fed.
Yep, fix your rate and pay it off quickly, real property is your best bet.
Ye olde Professor's trick. If 3% is good, why isn't .3 % even much more betterer?
The Fed needs to reign this shit in now, or we will see subprime McMansion loans again.
Anyone else remember how that worked out?
even in a declining interest rate environment daily fluctuations can screw you. if you don't lock it in you are just gambling which is fine if you have that type personality.
Lock it in.
Definitely going to get a fixed rate, but was curious as to the short term fluctuations to determine at what rate to lock in.
Thanks all for your insight.
Definitely going to get a fixed rate, but was curious as to the short term fluctuations to determine at what rate to lock in.
Thanks all for your insight.
Forget about the short term fluctuations; the rate is low enough.
Lock it in and don't look back. Add 5% to the payment amount each successive year and you pay it off in 11. It behaves like a real nice savings account as long as you don't touch the equity. Way better than the 0.25% you get for a CD.
The rate you pay might depend on the shoes and clothes you are wearing when you meet with the mortgage broker (don't let him see your car). It's arbitrary. Depends if he needs a few extra pips of commision and depends on the back end commision that you never really see(YSP)- yield spread premium (hidden backend commision) for different rates, pre-pays etc offered by the bank. Your rate is whatever he(she) can squeeze you for.
It's like the only reason to buy is to sell to the next fool. Hmmm, reminds me of something...
Ok ok ok. (Tony Montanaah voice)
Http://www.hedge.bz
So, the GDP surprises to the upside, the economy is doing better than expected and therefore interest rates are going... ....down...?
LMFAO!!!!
Hmmmm. Why are gasoline prices plunging?
Too much demand?
Please do a demand curve for "post riot scenarios.". My first impulse is " massively disinflationary.". Certainly metals prices have collapsed and production has soared...
Has the drop in "price" at the pump followed the drop in "price" of crude?
I see plenty of mouth-breathers that still need to eat, plenty of demand. What, you think that food prices are independent of oil and refined oil products?
FAIL.
Besides, I am never going to complain about cheap diesel, fucking bring it!!
Meh, when it starts pushing 2% I'll start selling.
Bullish.
"healthy" economies don't have stock markets at blistering record highs, US10-Year treasuries unable to get up thru 2.5%, north of 20% of the population on food stamps, 200-250k jobs a month as the "high-bar" (of which, 1/2 are part-time), kids coming out of college with $100,000+ student debt, barely a million housing starts per month (because the population which is growing is coming out of college with student debt which is going vertical + job opportunity which is plummeting).
im not sure how to put any more blunt than that but listening to these bozos on CNBC keep deeming this a "goldy-locks" scenerio seems to completely ignore the notion this is all being done on the back of an $18 trillion debt (and growing, last stats out of treasury state they are borrowing $250 billion in Q4 which according to my math is $1 trillion a year we DON'T have, nevermind the out years starting in 2020 when the deficits move increasingly higher). santelli brings this up all the time; its about sustainability and nobody seems to want to touch this. can't borrow & spend while compressing rates forever --- anyone who thinks that intersection is anything short of a 35-car pile up simply doesn't understand how basic, common sense economic operate.
fed isn't gonna raise rates because they can't (yet they have too). volcker understood this. he understood that sometime you have to go backwards to go forward. he engineered a recession that would give us a chance. what these clowns at the fed are doing is squeeking out a little bit of growth (and paying multiples to get it) and when it has to be unwound, its without question going to be MUCH more painful than had we ripped the band-aid off when when we had the chance (ie. right after lehman)
Volcker was the last American at the helm. Don't think they will let it happen again.
Volcker's policies could not be followed today. 14% interest would bankrupt the U.S. government.
Correct. This is precisely why it's important not to be holding a lot of debt or debt-based notes when that happens. You want to be the owner of real assets and productive land and people (yes, some people can be assets too).
At that point, "laws" that cannot be enforced will be irrelevant and the .gov will be forced to negotiate with the productive class on their terms. All the welfare recipients in corporate america and in the ghetto can go fuck themselves. Reset bitchez.
Define "growth." I think one can argue that the US (and many other places) hasn't "grown" since about 1970.
Well at least we will never see a rate like the JGB30y @ 1.40 % ... that's unpossible...right ?
Stocks go higher because Tyler posted a chart.
Psst....hey buddy...wanna buy some stawks? Cheap cheap, seriously!
that chart tyler posted should scare the living crap out of people. we start getting daily & weekly closes below 3.00% on the 10-year and its only further evidence of how fucked things are. i saw an article on ZH calling for way lower oil and if we get that + a break of 2.00% on the US 10-year and its gonna start gettin real sloppy IMO. history has a funny way of repeating itself and if my memory serves me right, thats how 2007-2008 started (plummeting rates & raw commodities). difference is this time, "they say" they are done with QE. i personally don't see them NOT coming back into the market only this time they'll just be honest about it and tell everyone they're buying stocks and congress will let them; its not until markets are crashing that these clowns in washington give a blank check & green light any & every "emergency measure" to WHOEVER says they have the answer. funny everyone wants to be saved when the shit hits the fan but nobody wants put in the hard work from preventing the shit from initially flying.
10 year T has been below 3.00% since very early this year. It's the 30 year that's now below 3%.
my bad - i meant 2.3%. the chart ZH had up there shows that 2.3 is short-term support on a long-term downtrend. santelli has been 100% on rates for as long as ive been watching & today his opinion was the px action we've witnessed since that capitulation day a few weeks ago (specifically this week) suggests we're going to drip lower.