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Case Shiller Reports "Broad-Based Slowdown For Home Prices", First Monthly Decrease Since November 2013
While the just revised Q3 GDP surprised everyone to the upside, the Case Shiller index for September which was also reported moments ago, showed yet another month of what it called a "Broad-based Slowdown for Home Prices." The bad news: the 20-City Composite gained 4.9% year-over-year, compared to 5.6% in August. However, this was modestly above the 4.6% expected. However, what was more troubling is that on a sequential basis, the Top 20 Composite MSA posted a modest -0.03% decline, the first sequential drop since February. And from the report itself: "The National Index reported a month-over-month decrease for the first time since November 2013. The Northeast region reported its first negative monthly returns since December 2013 and its worst annual returns since December 2012 due to weaknesses in Washington D.C. and Boston."
Case Shiller Year over Year
and Month over Month
Case Shiller's own visualization:
From the report:
“The overall trend in home price increases continues to slow down,” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The National Index reported a month-over-month decrease for the first time since November 2013. The Northeast region reported its first negative monthly returns since December 2013 and its worst annual returns since December 2012 due to weaknesses in Washington D.C. and Boston. The West and Southwest, previously strong regions, are seeing price gains fade. The only region showing any sustained strength is the Southeast led by Florida; price gains are also evident in Atlanta and Charlotte.
“The 10- and 20-City Composites continued their year-over-year downward trend, gaining 4.8% and 4.9% compared to last month’s year-over-year gains of 5.6%. Las Vegas, which has shown doubledigit annual gains, posted an annual return of 9.1%, its first time below 10% since October 2012. Miami, however, continues to impress with another double digit annual gain of 10.3%. It is the only city that currently has a year-over-year double digit gain. Charlotte was the only city in September to show an annual increase relative to last month. Eighteen of the 20 cities reported slower annual gains compared to last month.
“Other housing statistics paint a mixed to slightly positive picture. Housing starts held above one million at annual rates on gains in single family homes, sales of existing homes are gaining, builders’ sentiment is improving, foreclosures continue to be worked off and mortgage default rates are at precrisis levels. With the economy looking better than a year ago, the housing outlook for 2015 is stable to slightly better.”
That said, if China continues its recent easing path, expect US housing prices to jump in the coming months as Chinese "hot money" once again is parked in the once place where, in the absence of anonymous Swiss bank accounts, it is treated best: US real estate.
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"Get back in there and turn those fiat machines back on." - Every home builder between New York and Beijing
The middle class storage of wealth...*POOF*....
welcome to the 3rd world.
It was all artificial anyway... Cash sales can't hold up the market alone, either wages increase (cough) or home prices decrease.
As long as the values of the condo apartments at 15 Central Park West, Manhattan, continue to increase, things are good as far as the Obama administration is concerned.
lets rebuild Freguson for those deprived people
*depraved*
Who cares, stocks keep going up. The Federal Reserve will pump the housing market back up again. It owns stocks.
Unlimited money printing they assume solves everything.
Gubment cheese
Http://www.hedge.bz
I think this new generation does not want a house...to much work...you have to mow the lawn...paint...keeps the plants in order..snow shovel....they are to busy on their Iphones or with their video games to do that..they would rather rent and have someone else do the work for them....thats what mom and dad did for them...plus they want to spend their money on something else...toys mainly...
Oh my goodness, a 0.03% decline. Should I sell my house and rent before the 'real' selling starts? Write the article again when it is 3% down. Note to editor: This is not good copy!
Over the past 6 years, whenever the upcoming news is really bad, AND window dressing is needed the market gets "tickled" by the invisible hand. The business of the Central Banks IS business.
America - the most gameable and exploitable country on the face of the earth for foreigners, rich OR poor!
Especially the rich.
That's because no sane person buys during the winter as no owner sells then, dumbass....Wow ZH really trying to spin this insignificant seasonal effect into the final apocalypse...talk about bias, how much the shorts paying you Tyler?
September now already counts as winter?
Damn weather.
ZHers, nobody cares! If prices sag, Chinese will buy entire cities, and bailouts will be done. Soon student loan forgiveness is coming to free up $1 Trillion to push up demand and send home prices higher. Stocks will go even higher. Why fight it? The central bankers are omnipotent, and now control the world.
Just buy AAPL stock and get rich. Every fund manager in the world is buying! AAPL is buying back billons more. Soon two out of every three human beings on the Earth will own an I-Phone. The stock goes up $2-$3 a day, nearly every day. Your path to riches! Or sit back and lament ‘The sky is falling!’
damn sky, everytime I go outside it sits on my head.
I'm seeing the same thing in my area I saw several years ago right before the 1st housing bust. Builders building homes everywhere that no one is going to buy.
. . . Except it will be different this time.
Housing is now more affordable. Winning!
The decline in Washington, D.C. isn't that surprising. D.C. never participated in the housing crash back in 2008-9; it's an overpriced market.
Amazing that so many people believe high home prices is good for the economy! True, this utterly insane idea was repeated endlessly by every mainstream media/propaganda outlet for many years. But even so, this idea is so fundamentally and transparently FALSE that you'd think more people would scratch their head and say "that can't be".
Consider the dynamic.
Since the predators-that-be claim they must keep home prices high, almost every young person for eternity will necessarily become a debt slave to their home. What's the alternative? If they must pay vastly more for the most expensive item they will ever purchase, that means they have much less left over to pay for everything else. And so, they won't be able to buy much else. But that "else" IS the economy (minus housing market).
But there are a few winners. Older folks who downsize after the kids are gone, sell their big fancy home, and retire in a small apartment or old folks home. When they sell, they get way more for their home than they should. Of course, many of them also lose their shirt on the other side of the equation, since they can't earn diddly squat on bank deposits or low-risk bonds.
The big winner is... no surprise. The big banks and Wall Street! That's right. Many of those folks with insane home valuations take loans against their homes and... "invest" in the stock market (often on margin). So this plays right into the hands of Wall Street, who will fleece them dry when the market crashes (the insiders and banksters will be short the market at that time, because, well, they are insiders after all).
The ultimate result of this insanity is to get almost everyone deep in debt. To whom? To people who never produce anything, but generate massive fiat debt out of non-existent thin air. And so they become fabulously rich without any productive actions or effort, and everyone who produces gets drained dry.
----
To be clear, one of the best foundations of a healthy, vibrant economy is... cheap homes. And that's the natural state of affairs when fiat, fake, fraud, fiction, fantasy, fractional reserve debt currency and computer-bits do not exist, but only real, physical gold [and silver, and platinum, and whatever-other real physical good human freely choose to exchange for the goods and goodies others produce].