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Grant Williams: The Consequences Of Economic Peace

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The following chart-heavy presentation from Grant Williams is among his best as he wends his way methodically from the 19th century to the present day (and into the future) examining "The Consequences of the Economic Peace." From Keynes to Kondratieff and from Napoleon to Nixon, Williams looks at the ramifications of several decades of easy credit and attempts to draw parallels with a time in history when the world looked remarkably similar to how it does now (as he notes "that last time didn’t end so well, I’m afraid.") The real day of reckoning (Williams notes rather ominously), when the unconscionable level of debt that has been built up during the fiat money era finally topples over under its own weight like the giant wave in The Perfect Storm, lies ahead of us.

 

Full Presentation:

 

Grant Williams' Chart Pack - The Consequences of the Economic Peace by zerohedge

 

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Tue, 11/25/2014 - 21:41 | 5489241 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

People just tryin' to make it from day to day, paycheck to paycheck
....

Tue, 11/25/2014 - 21:55 | 5489286 JuliaS
JuliaS's picture

"You do one little job. You build a widget in Saskatoon. The next thing you know, it’s two miles under the desert, the essential component of a death machine...  Do you think anybody wants to ask questions? All they want is a clear conscience and a fat paycheck."

(from the movie "Cube")

Tue, 11/25/2014 - 22:04 | 5489311 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

Cube

worst movie I ever forced myself to watch

Wed, 11/26/2014 - 01:51 | 5489899 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

 

 

It should be titled "the consequence of excess liquidity that brought false economic peace".

Wed, 11/26/2014 - 11:17 | 5490782 Arius
Arius's picture

When and IF that happens, we can do what Germany did after hyperinflation and make land / real estate as collateral for the new currency ... it will increase values of houses and real estate.

Tue, 11/25/2014 - 21:47 | 5489266 starman
starman's picture

peak credit = peak debt! do you see an upside?

Tue, 11/25/2014 - 22:03 | 5489307 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

Capitalism without bankruptcy is like Christianity without Hell...Kyle Bass

my favorite quote of the longest recession

Tue, 11/25/2014 - 22:10 | 5489331 joego1
joego1's picture

I think the people with student loans would second that notion.

Wed, 11/26/2014 - 07:57 | 5490189 FighterJetsGuit...
FighterJetsGuitarSolo's picture

Socialism without bankruptcy is like Christianity without Hell...

 

*there fixed that for you...

Wed, 11/26/2014 - 10:27 | 5490602 TrustbutVerify
TrustbutVerify's picture

Do you not allocate your own capital? 

Wed, 11/26/2014 - 10:46 | 5490634 falak pema
falak pema's picture

"Prost then to Comrade Reagan the greatest socialist of them all.

He was our best plant in the Capitalist system. He and Comrade Maggie. 

Together they made SURE that the greatest nation on EARTH would go COMMIE.

It was ALL PLANNED that way.

Gorby, masterminded this and played along, PRETENDING THAT USSR IMPLOSION WAS THE END OF THE COLD WAR AND CAPITALISM'S TRIUMPH.

In fact thanks to Communism's best double agents they achieved a mUCH greater WIN than a temporary demise of USSR. 

THEY WON OVER THE USA; THE HEART.

Now comrade Putin can bring back the USSR to Mother Russia; piece of cake!

Hahahaha! What a clever trick the Ruskis can play on those who think Mother Russia is up for grabs.

Remember Napoleon, remember Hitler! 

Tovarich AMERIKA! Now its our golden age thanks to our double agents who will live on forever as the greatest spies that ever lived! "

PS / When you bandy words to make white black and vice versa; you do open the gates of virtual hell. 

Tue, 11/25/2014 - 22:10 | 5489327 Hohum
Hohum's picture

If new oil cost $20/barrel to extract, Mr. Williams wouldn't be making this presentation.

Tue, 11/25/2014 - 22:31 | 5489415 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

Stuff like this should be a required part of every high school's curriculum. I'm sure common core will see to that, lol.....

Tue, 11/25/2014 - 22:53 | 5489491 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

The perspective we call 'freegold' yields a different result to the analysis.

The fact that Grant dose not distinguish between a real gold market and the current gold derivative market tells me he has not thought too deeply about this issue either. Odd since it is an important issue for him.

I won't go into the many difference in interpretation  of the data that freegold gives but I have to say I feel less confused about the view I have than it seems Grant has. 

but...an example...NIRP . One could shout that 'the banks are screwing us again by charging us to keep our money there'. But one could also observe that they are merely sending a message that currency is not for saving. That might be a hint at the new system that is already in place will no longer view the medium of exchange as a store of value.

After reading fofoa's interpretation of Another and FOA there are few details that don't start falling into place. I think in the end his analysis will be seen to be correct and his simple message the best: keep your savings in physical gold.

The fact that he sells nothing, does not think silver will participate in the coming repricing of gold and the thought that miners will not be allowed to continue grabbing the number one wealth asset, all make him a pariah in the usual gold forums. The need to go to his free site to read his 450 or so blog pieces makes him 'out of sight out of mind'.

I suggest starting here:  http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2010/07/debtors-and-savers.html

or here:  http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2011/05/return-to-honest-money.html

or don't, it is a lot of reading...for those who want to understand what is happening with gold and wealth assets in general however, and especially for adults with wealth to protect....it will be worth the effort.

Wed, 11/26/2014 - 06:26 | 5490117 CHX
CHX's picture

+1. FOFOA is great to read, but at times REALLY lengthy. 5000+ words for a post has not been rare lately. And even though with a clear though, it's at times not easy to see the simple message in a forest of words. I'd like him to compress his writings a bit for the reader's sake, but it is what it is, and his thisis and interpreation of FOA and Anothoer is certainly worth the effort it takes.

Tue, 11/25/2014 - 23:57 | 5489685 samsara
samsara's picture

 

I was born at the start of a Kondratieff Spring,   My teen/Twenties were spent in it's Summer.... My adulthood was it's autumn.    Now it's winter in my Old age... 

What a period of the Cycle to live...

"A Hazy Shade Of Winter"
....
Look around, the grass is high, the fields are ripe,
It's the springtime of my life.
Oh, seasons change with scenery,
Weaving time in a tapestry,
Won't you stop and remember me?...

 

Wed, 11/26/2014 - 00:51 | 5489804 tok1
Wed, 11/26/2014 - 01:52 | 5489900 armageddon addahere
armageddon addahere's picture

Repudiation doesn't mean what he thinks it means.

He seems to think it means refusing to go into debt. That's not it. It means refusing to pay the overwhelming bad debts you have.

I have a book published in the 1850s that refers to 1837 as "the year of repudiation" when several southern states defaulted on the interest on their bonds, and refused to redeem the bonds that came due. They didn't have the money and couldn't borrow it.

See the chart above showing Kondratieff's waves. 1837 is the bottom of the first winter.

Many business houses and men of the highest repute, went bankrupt that year. See the Panic of 1837.

Today they print or rather, create electronic blips and bleeps representing trillions of dollars, hoping to inflate away the bad debts no one can pay. Whether this is a better policy than simply tearing up the old notes, is a matter of opinion. It dodges the immediate crisis but drags things out for 20 years instead of getting them over with in one year.

Wed, 11/26/2014 - 02:06 | 5489910 Wild Theories
Wild Theories's picture

agree on the drag-out, that's why this winter will be especially long.

since Kondratieff's cycle is nothing more than a model on human behaviour, human behaviour itself can also distort the magnitude and length of an observed cycle.

Wed, 11/26/2014 - 11:14 | 5490769 StandardDeviant
StandardDeviant's picture

Here's a PDF, for anyone else who finds Scribd particularly annoying and unnecessary, especially its inability to deal with typographic ligatures (fi, fl, ffl, etc.).

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!