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Q3 GDP Revised Above Highest Estimate, Prints 3.9%
Just as the OECD cut US GDP further, here comes the BEA with an impressive first revision to the Q3 GDP, which succeeded in fixing all those things that were lacking in the first report which said GDP had grown 3.5% in the quarter. Moments ago, the revised number slammed expectations of a modest decling to 3.3%, rising by3.9%, above the highest Wall Street estimate (range was 2.8% to 3.8%), with the boost coming from all those components that disappointed in the first go around, namely Personal Consumption (which rose from 1.8% to 2.2%), contributing 1.51% of the final GDP print, inventories subtracting far less, or just -0.12% compared to -0.57%, and fixed investment revised to 0.97% from 0.74%. Finally, while exports were revised modestly lower, a small decline in imports also offset the net decline in trade contribution.
In a nutshell:
- 3Q GDP forecast range 2.8% to 3.8% from 81 economists
- GDP rose to 3.9% compared to advance est. of 3.5% last month
- Personal consumption rose 2.2% in 3Q after rising 2.5% prior quarter
- GDP price index rose 1.4% in 3Q after rising 2.1% prior quarter
- Core PCE q/q rose 1.4% in 3Q after rising 2.0% prior quarter
Visually:
And a long-term GDP history:
And while one may debate the calculation method, or whether the US is decoupling from the rest of the world, this latest data merely confirms that the Fed is certainly on track to hike rates in the summer of 2015 as it has been warning for a long time. Unless of course, the rebound that many economists had expected in Q4 GDP in fact took place in Q3, and unless the harsh winter proves to be just as bad as last year and lead to a collapse in the coming GDP prints.
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MOAR money-printing!
Two men in PRESS jackets express 'disgust' over grand jury decision on camera!
http://tinyurl.com/k8t5am8
When you count inflation as growth you get wonderfull results
I still think we need to print moar and helicopter drop. Print moar and give everyone a 50/hr minimum wage. If you really can print your way to prosperity why are we pussyfooting around?
OK.....who junked that?
It's just an advance adjustment for the Polar Vortex 2.0 negative adjustment, due entirely to weather, in Q4.
And what happened to the ADMITTED errors in YOY calculation which should have resulted in a 2% points downward revision when corrected? What a shit show this has all become.
Helicopter drops may accidentally provide the sheeple with more money. Everyone knows that printing money only helps the economy if it is given to the .001% so it can trickle down.
TIME TO RAISE INTEREST RATES !!
Compared to this, Ponzi was JV!!
Charlie Leduff - reporter in the linked clip that the 'PRESS' guys talk to - is a Detroit native and knows a few things firsthand about similar situations...not surprised he was there.
I just read that 12 million Americans believe that Lizard People run our country. If that is the case, these smart Lizard People must be good enough with numbers to fix the 3Q GDP figures. The marginal increases in GDP will turn out to be incorrect and too high in a follow-up analysis in two or three months time.
lol The BEA dug really deep into their "Potemkin Village Book of Economics" for that number. Who in their right mind believes the eCONomy grew at 3.9% in Q-3.
The GDP *model* says the economy grew by 3.9% perhaps, but not the real GDP.
Maybe Obama simply confiscated all their minus signs?
This means Q4 GDP will be a disater. Stocks will dip today.
I don't know about you, but I'm certainly feeling at least 3.9% better than I did last quarter.
Yeah I'm actually 3.9% LARGER than last quarter so it all makes perfect sense to me now!
Looks like the U.S. is taking a cue from China and is now using their excel economic calculators. Lots of #'s but the headline number looks good so let's print it.
Better start raising those interest rates.
/s
ROFL does anyone think Karl Denninger will publicly apologize for the bullshit he spewed about Officer Wilson basically executing Brown? He certainly deleted the posts LOL
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=229323
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=229525
The split screen, Obama on left, looters on right, going haywire, was priceless.
"If I had sons, they would look like..."
Who has done more harm to the US, Obama or those rioters?
Great point, LA. Denninger prides himself as an objectivist and promoter/defender of the certainty of mathematical principles as they apply to real world situations and logical conclusions. His 'bullshit' as you so aptly put, simply underscores the fact that politics and by extension, Political-Correctness, IS a religion unto itself, and applied 'liberally', will trump 'mathematics' at every turn - and laugh whilst doing so...
Farce
Q4 prediction: 13.9
when the stock market drops two percent it will be qe-nirp to the rescue bitchez
Don't like the answer, change the equation!
zzzzzzz - i've dropped out, tuned out, of the "official" stats endless parade of propaganda
I’m terribly disappointed in 3.9% growth. My Dem Senator said it would be 5-6% growth each quarter for the next 6 years. We need new QE with at least $30 billion a month so I can make it up in the rigged stock market…
Make that $30billion a day and you might get somewhere near.
It's the holiday season and they have to convince everyone that everthing is great. That's why all the retailers started black Friday last month. Everything coming out of this govt is phony at best. The people doing the best are the ones long the market. When they decide to take it down, the powers in charge will be short. Get those TV's while they are 40% off!
It's becoming clear that US equities will outperform every other investment in the coming years. I was extremely bearish in 2009/2010/2011 just like everyone else and even in 2012 when gold was rallying back to 1800/ounce I was still buying into the "dollar collapse" and "gold to 10,000" theories. But now that I see what Central Bank intervention can do and for how long it can create this levitation effect, I'm seeing that the time frame for "market collapse" could be years away. Maybe decades. Because, if every country and central bank around the globe participates in this market support, nominal prices will rise. And those that have money in US equities will be rewarded handsomely. Pension funds will be able to catch up to what they owe rather than be underfunded for decades. Pension money will pour into equities, social security and other government funds can take advantage as well and retirement portfolios will have to rush into equities because the meager 4% fixed income from their "risk free" annuity investments won't be enough to sustain their lifestyle. This can last a long time. A long long time. The 2008 crash opened a door to this new age of investment. Central Banks will make a lot of "investors" wealthy over the next 10 years, and yes I said 10 years. There is overwhelming support in these markets from all over the world. Equity investment over the next 10 years will be what a savings account was in the 60's/70's/80's. Everyone will be in it. Why? Because once the central banks opened the door they can't close it. This will all end miserably of course, but not with a market collapse. Not with the S&P and DOW falling by 80%, not with other markets collapsing world wide....but with a social upheval. We will see S&P 6,000 but babies and children starving to death in the streets on almost every corner. Ferguson, MO will be in every city around the country and the wealth gap between the lower class and upper class will be huge. The tidal wave of social unrest will become so normal, it will be a live video feed channel on it's own network on Comcast. We will be able to tune into "Rioting in DC, Rioting in LA, Rioting in NY" and then reality shows about the new guilty pleasure amongst the "well-to-do's", live reality shows about these riots, with commercialism infused. The Monster Energy Drink Riot at 5 in NY Time Square... The Lowe's Walk of Labor Unions in Detroit, MI... The Riot in the Heartland sponsored by Home Depot... lol. You laugh, but when Honey Boo Boo is an American icon, we deserve every bit of this shit. So keep your gold...silver...seeds...rice...whatever it is your stockpiling... but buy the SPY in your retirement accounts ASAP. lol. You'll need proof you "Invest in America" to get healthcare someday.
One word: paragraphs.
bullish on hookers and blow.
Do these numbers seem about right for the Q3?
gdp up $154B
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GDPC1
student loans up $85B
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/SLOAS
mortage debt up $50B
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MDOAH
credit card debt up $75B
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CMDEBT
corp debt up $100B
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NCBTCMDODNS
federal debt up $250B???
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
about 5:1 debt to gdp
Thanks for those numbers. I was wondering how much consumer debt was added. Wonder how much GDP was added thanks healthcare.
Who cares what the fabricated number is. If it was 1% it wouldn't have made any difference. All numbers eventually get revised YEARS, DECADES later. With all the money that has been "created" worldwide, in the last 6 years the "economy" should be doing much better.
why do i have a feeling we will see ''another all time high'' today?
this gdp number is 3.5 pts higher than the actual real number. what a fucking joke.
"Q3 GDP Revised Above Highest Estimate, Prints 3.9%"
How much of it is fake?
All of it but equities are going higher....
7.8%
GDP is not the metric you should be evaluating for the health of the economy.
Corporate profits (Before and After Taxes) tell a much better picture. It's even more shocking when you realize that they keep upping GDP.
Corporate profits after taxes were below the amount reported for the same quarters in 2013 and 2012.
Corporate profits before taxes were marginally higher than 1 year ago.
Corporate profits are not at the level to support an expanding economy or job growth.
Corporate profits after taxes are down for the last 4 quarters by more than 6.2%
Remember, this is the broadest measure of profitability for ALL businesses in the US.
Frankly, this is horrific.
We are working harder to generate less real income. How much harder are we going to work to generate even less income going forward.
Obama said "There will be plenty of time to make profits. Now is not that time".
How right he was.
All that is needed is the Quarterly major city riots and all those broken windozes and burnt out billdings, plus all the press coverage... and damn... you got 4% GDP ! Like the man on te teevee said "There is history and then there is black history".
so 1st qrtr was revised from 3 to -3, and i'm supposed to believe now the .gov is being more conservative, or i'm supposed to believe the economy is doing that much better, or i'm supposed to believe these are u.s gdp numbers not china's?
.gov is double counting gold and gdp inputs
the books aren't cooked.................. they are fried!