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This Country Will Be The Next Zimbabwe...
Submitted by Bill Bonner via Acting Man blog,
Fantasy World
Meanwhile, as Chris pointed out yesterday, in politics and economics we live in a fantasy world. The feds claim to improve our economy. We pretend to believe it. Did a central bank ever add one single centime, one peseta, one zloty or one fraction of a mill to the world’s wealth?
Not that we are aware of. But all over the world, central bankers pretend to sweat and toil on behalf of mankind – correcting… adjusting… nullifying the decisions of honest men and women going about their daily business. Interest rates are too high! Inflation is too low! Not enough demand! Too much savings! They are omniscient as well as all-powerful.
In Japan – now back in recession – Prime Minister Shinz? Abe has taken off on a kamikaze mission. Victory or death! He will either revive the Nipponese economy… or he will kill it!
Abe may succeed. But we’re happy to bet he doesn’t. Our new Trade of the Decade – buy Japanese stocks and sell Japanese government bonds – aims to capture the disaster in dollars and cents. Abe and his delusional copilot at the Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda, have their flight jackets on. They’re about to take off… creating incredible amounts of new money and credit.
JGBs and the yen over the past 5 years…the candles are JGB prices, the bar chart going down shows the yen – click to enlarge.
The Japanese economy expects it and depends on it. But when word gets around that there is no way the government can ever repay its debts, there is sure to be trouble. Investors will dump Japanese government bonds, leaving the Bank of Japan as the only source of financing for the government’s deficits.
This will put Japan in roughly the same spot as Zimbabwe in the early 2000s… and Argentina in the 1980s. Stocks will soar, as investors seek safety in productive assets. Bonds and the yen will crash.
Air Japan – the arrow above the plane’s number roughly indicates the likely flight path.
A Clear Message
And in Europe, Bloomberg reports:
“Mario Draghi strengthened his stimulus pledge for the euro area by saying the European Central Bank can’t hold back in its fight to revive the economy.
“We will do what we must to raise inflation and inflation expectations as fast as possible, as our price-stability mandate requires,” the ECB president said at a conference in Frankfurt today. Some inflation expectations “have been declining to levels that I would deem excessively low,” he said.
“Draghi is sending a clear signal that more stimulus is coming,” said Lena Komileva, chief economist at G Plus Economics Ltd. in London. “If the ECB’s current measures prove underwhelming and inflation expectations fail to recover, the ECB will act to expand QE.”
In the Old World people expect stable prices. What’s wrong with that? we hear you asking. But it’s a problem, says its chief banker. “Excessively low” is how Draghi describes the public’s fear of inflation. He vows to do something about it.
What? The same thing the Japanese are doing! In the New World the real economy continues to deteriorate. But the stock market floats along like a hot-air balloon in a children’s cartoon. The Fed has turned off the QE gas. But it has its hand on the valve, ready to turn on the jets as soon as prices sink.
All that terrible euro area deflation … it is sickening. How could our wise central planners allow this to happen? – click to enlarge.
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Nigeria?
or
China?
http://hedgeaccordingly.com/2014/11/nigerian-national-economic-council-o...
ALL FIAT BASED ECONOMIES WILL BE ZIMBABWE BUT WORSE. COMING SOON!
RIPS
Which are like ... all of them.
Thanks for that Boris.
I told my buddy i could count the convertible backed currencies of the world with my 10 fingers...after about 30 seconds of pretending to count on my fingers. I say..I dont need any fingers theres none. He doesn't believe me.
He told me he would have me an list of ALL of them by Monday. HA
RIPS
Everybody should stop picking on Japan. We are Following them afterall.
Just in case, this is cynicism...We are worse than Japan now.
In the equation;
MV = Py
M is the only thing central banks can control absent near hyper-inflation, which we are about to see in Japan.
V is something governments can try and legislate into existance, but only works so long as they have a compliant population.
The problem is V will only pick up when people have enough disposable income to buy shit they don't need with it. Else it stays pretty constant and the growth model (based on Franctional reserve banking) begins to fall apart, which we are experiencing world-wide.
The EMZ is finished. Even if Draghi starts printing €€€ until his little heart is content, as the "bailouts" in the USSA, the UK and Japan have showed us -- this "helicopter money" doesn't go to the people to start the Velocity of money part of the inflation equation going again, but goes to the Bankers to plug holes in their balance sheets which were created to stimulate "growth" in years past that is already long gone. Expecting growth by printing FIAT so that insolvant banks can be a little less insolvant is not only insane and a tad masochistic -- but foolhardy as well.
I think the EMZ is fundamentally different than the USSA though, in this regard -- while the Americans, Japanese and Brits will (attempt to) hold together, when the next Lehmann moment comes -- ANYWHERE in the world, and the costs for "Europe" are tallied -- EMZ will simply break apart, and the healing process will begin much quicker here than the rest of the world. Watch Northern Europe -- if you are half way intelligent, figure out a way to get a Green Card or the equivlant thereof.
in order for the eurozone to break apart in any way, at least one member of this club must see a clear advantage in doing so
and the first advantage or effect would be a massive devaluation or overvaluation of it's currency
in short... an expensive move either way
if you devalue violently, you face higher borrowing rates. Argentina is a sterling example of how it becomes more expensive
if you overvalue... well, rates for the EUR are already near zero, aren't they? where is the advantage, there? if Germany would do that, what about exports?
asked differently: has the eurozone price stability or not?
it's not a Lehman moment that could break up the eurozone
You are 100% correct.
But in economics, when figuring out "advantage" one must also take into consideration "opportunity cost." I am sure you, as well as everyone else here understands what OC is.
Looking at such a Post Lehmann event through today's paradigm is not the correct outlook. What happens when the US economy resembles that of Spain or Greece? We Amis won't be able to purchase "high quality" German products anymore, just like in the South of Europe today.
Moreover, holding out the stick of "high interest rates" for the PIIGS+F for returning to some form of a devalued currency is not that scary. Look at all of these nations' average 10 year note yields on a 100 year chart. We are either at 100 year or ALL TIME lows. Anyone building policy on these low interest rates going on ad infinum is living in a fantasy world.
So, while the question might be in Germany;
"Wow, so BoA went tits up in the US and things are going from bad to Ferguson. Should we stick with the EMZ, and cough up the requisite XXX Billions to keep the system solvant -- or hit the reset button and start over?"
Whereas the question in, say, Spain is;
"Wow, so BoA went tits up in the US and things are going from bad to Gerguson. Should we stick with the EMZ, and deal with another 20% spike in General unemployment -- or hit the reset button and start over?"
And remember -- all 18 members of the EMZ have to come to the same "we are going to stay" conclusion. If one decides to leave in a disorganized way -- it will be a rush to the exits.
When looking for advantages in such a situation -- the Spanish rulers aren't thinking about "European Unity" anymore, but are thinking about "How do I hold onto the power I have left" whereas the Germans won't be concerned about selling a new 3er to the USSA (because they couldn't afford it in that point in time) but like the Spanish holding onto what they have.
There are so many fracture points in the EMZ right now, that another Lehmann would almost certainly push it over the edge.
House, fine, but first you need to see an advantage. your argumentation, as I often pointed out, is strongly based on American culture. to the point that I often wonder if you are really living in Germany
take "hit the reset button". european continental think differently. and many of our thought revolve around the fact that we can't take our countries and relocate them an ocean away
tell me if it isn't true that the number one wish of continental europeans is peace on this continent. and that any negative action has a negative reaction
look at the EUR: it's nothing else then a giant FX peg. traduced, it's a currency non-war agreement. like "we shall not have competitive devaluations among ourselves"
free yourself from all this "European Unity" nonsense. the correct word is cooperation among sovereigns
meanwhile, high rates in a devalued small currency zone might not scare you, but it scares the hell out of us. have a look at Russia
of course we are living in a fantasy world at the moment, thanks to all the Enrons and Lehmans and the FED and so on. but again, what are the options? what are the consequences? what is your plan?
you can't seriously expect wild cowboy actions from us, like "hitting the reset button". we are the guys that have a convoluted plan even for our way to the bathroom, remember?
Ghordo,
This has nothing to do with an "American" mentality. You habitually take the dialogue down this road, and I am not sure why.
The idea isn't Continential Europe v American/Anglo thought processes. Look at Denmark, Sweden, Poland, Czech Republic, shoot even Switzerland -- all of which have avoided the EUR, and will put it off as long as humanly possible. This is a argument between idealism and pragmatisim.
The idealism is multiple-fold depending on whom you talk to. Many in "your" camp are blearly eyed EU Federalists. This group controls not only the EU, but many member states' respective governments. They set the dialogue, and made it politically incorrect, for example, in Germany to be against closer EU integration (aka Federalisation) without being labeled a Nazi. In France they use the term "raciste" in an attempt to silence those who are not fans of the EU. In Poland they have cranked up the rhetoric to label those against closer EU federalization (Partia Niepodleglosci pruski) are labeled "zdrajcy" or "traitors." In fact, in every single EU and specifically, EMZ nation -- the anti-federalization groups are labeled "extreme far right" by the EU Federalists who have hijacked an otherwise good idea.
A much smaller minority in the camp of idealism are people like you. Not the bleary-eyed authoritarians described above, but people who fundamentally believe in the cause, and are willing to compromise their intellectual integrity for their ideals.
What is this idealism I speak of? The idea that nations that share a currency will never, ever, ever go to war with one another. These is an excellent example of, how, in the past 100 years this was not only inaccurate, but completely the opposite of what happened. Lets look at France and Italy pre-World War 1. Before WWI both Italy and France along with a handful of other nations shared a "currency" (or shall we say a shared fix peg) with one another. 5 francs in France was worth the exact same amount as 5 Lira in Italy. The coins could be used in the place of the other with little to no issues. Then WWI happened. Italy, if your history lessons recall started out the war on the side of Austria-Hungary & Germany, fighting against the Allies, which included France -- while the currency union KEPT GOING until its demise in 1927. Two nations were FIGHTING ONE ANOTHER while sharing a currency.
Pragmatists realise it was a good idea with flawed execution.
Hitting the reset button, or at least having an honest conversation about the state of finances on the Continent and the pragmatism of the common currency without the bleary-eyed trolls would be a great start. The problem is your leadership keeps doubling down -- which, will not only bring about the end of the currency, but will bring about the end of the project. We are simply biding our time waiting for a catalyist at this point.
Then WWI happened. Italy, if your history lessons recall started out the war on the side of Austria-Hungary & Germany, fighting against the Allies, which included France -- while the currency union KEPT GOING until its demise in 1927. Two nations were FIGHTING ONE ANOTHER while sharing a currency.
Not quite correct. Italy started out as an ally of Germany and the AH Empire, but refused to declare war on Britain and France. In 1915, after negotiations with France and Great Britain, they declared war on Germany and Austria-Hungary.
You are quite correct.
However, the anaology applies to Austria-Hungary who minted coins in conjunction with the LMU that were reedemable all over the currency zone.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latin_Monetary_Union
Haus, the Danish Krone is near-pegged to the EUR. The Swiss Franc is floored to it, at exactly 1.20. And so on
you don't understand why I claim that your "call to arms" is alien to continental ears, the way you put it and I don't understand why you claim I'm a "bleary eyed federalist"
my camp is pro-EUR for completely different reasons from any idealism concerning the other, separate club called EU and the even other, separate club called NATO
my camp was concerned, since the 80's, about the next currency war. my camp was right, we have one raging on. my camp always argued that speculative attacks would become bigger, and the only counter to that was size of currency zone. my camp was so in favour of a confederation of national banks, and that's what we have
the federalists claim - and to a certain extent this is true - that we are riding piggyback on their "no war" goals. but our concern number one is the real economy. and the real economy needs competitive, hard price calculation. particularly when profit margins are squeezed by globalization
note how Le Pen claims that the ECB is "libertarian". by that, she means "Austrian School". we see ourselves as the pragmatists, in all this
flawed execution? by what criteria? the ECB has one damn and only target: price stability. now please tell me if this is not the current reality, in the eurozone
- explain to me that a currency war among us would be in any way beneficial, if you can
- explain to me that there is a different way to achieve price stability, if you can
- explain to me what your "reset button" would achieve, if you can. consequences matter
meanwhile, I'll side with our real economy, particularly that of small and medium sized producers, of which I am one
and while you are there, remember that I'm neutral about the EU, the other club. I judge it according to the results, not the ideology. the very day the US and the UK gov succeed to push TTIP, you'll see me as a declared enemy of the EU. until then, I find one size of beer cans regulated in Brussels better then 28 sizes regulated in all the various capitals, thank you very much
- meanwhile, today the elected EU parliament is discussing how to push Google to break up some near-monopolistic features. btw.
- meanwhile, I still have no explanation why you become red-eyed because of an anthem and a flag. as I often explained, the real thing is if there is a tax-base and an army under the flag
Ghordo -
Reread what I wrote. I never called you a blearly-eyed Federalist. In fact, if you reread it -- I put you in the other camp -- not the one HvR/Draghi/Barroso, et al belong to.
I guess if your concern is the real economy, then explain how the status quo is good for said, real economy, as it stunted German growth rates, flatlined the French (and now the boat is starting to point downwards), and its decimating (or worse than decimating, as decimating derives its roots from the latin root deci -- meaning 10, or 1/10, or 10%) the South.
Next you talk about how the ECB is "Austrian," which, (and if you could please send me the le Pen quote, I would love to see it -- I don't doubt you -- just I haven't heard from my favorite French Blonde in a while) right now, given its non-printing jaw-boning stimuli is, accurate (albeit warped). But I see this chasom between the North -- which are very Austrian and the South with is very Keynesian. But this is getting into semantics, as you cannot peg the EZB to one or the other 100%.
And lastly -- I've asked you this before -- and I think you kinda shined off Draghi's political capital response, but I'll ask again, because I just don'tremember.
What does the EUR give its various member states that a EUR/NEUR split couldn't? Because the benefits of such a move are long and well documented. (EDIT - splitting it in half answers all of your questions)
Haus, will reread, as requested. If so, point taken, and I claim distractions here as reason for my misreading
(growth? oh, my. please don't tell me you belong to those who think that growth is the holy grail of everything. nope, I'm not a believer in growth-über-alles. real growth is organic, and is not comparable to what happens when you throw other people's money at problems and call it a "stimulus")
here, as quoted by ZH she wrote "...As part of the business model increasingly libertarian adopted by France under pressure from Brussels, no economic fundamentals may not sustained improvement. All French can see that the austerity policies demanded by the EU and the ECB and implemented by the government are a proven failure and serious for our country."
the syntax is wrong because of it's Google translation from French, of course. and dear Marine uses the term "libertarian", thogh it would be more correct to use the term "neo-liberal" or - even more correctly imho - just "classical liberal" for the EU and the term "Austrian School" for the ECB
*** EDIT: I checked the original French version and lo and behold, she writes "ultraliberal", which Google translates as "libertarian" ****
yet the sentiment is the same as for the whole european right-to-far-right: a national currency would allow a national response. a national regulatory zone would allow national trade barriers as response
meaning, of course, rounds of "competitive devaluations" aka "currency wars" and "competitive market regulations" aka "trade wars", paired with... more government spending which results in more deficit and so more government debt
yes, the european Far Right (imo the correct term) considers the "Austrian School" and "libertarians" as well as all Liberalism, from classical to neo-, as the enemy (edit: particularly in their extremes as "ultraliberal"), as much as socialism, and sometimes even more so. As I wrote often, our politics has three classical dimensions: conservativism, liberalism and socialism. Marine belongs to the extreme conservatives, Sarkozy to the moderate conservatives. both camps can be called nationalist, too
and Marine Le Pen considers any treaty that restricts the leeway France can have in making more debt as insufferable, and to be scrapped
(Draghi? the jury is still out, for me. is jawboning the same as printing? imho... not. I have to ask what you understand under political capital)
lastly... size. London and NY would love a NEURO / SEURO split as much as EuroBonds. oh, they would amass huge waves of "other people's money" in a beautifully rigged FX casino the size of Jupiter. they love, love, love FX crosses, remember? they hate the EUR for this very reason. they would of course call it a repeat of the wonderful times they had speculating on the French Franc versus the Deutsche Mark
note the current humungus speculative positions on the EUR. note the situation the Russian national bank is facing with the Rouble. size is safety. as in a school of fish
On a related note: MV may equal Py, but MV doesn't actually have anything to do with the velocity of money, it is a calculation of the efficiency of the money supply in generating GDP. Comparing V to the actual velocity of money, however, is useful for examining how finacialization has made "economic" activity inefficient to the point of not even contributing to the flawed and BLS'd definitions of GDP output.
For Example:
M (US M2 money supply) = 11.4T http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MYAGM2USM052N
x
V (US M2 velocity) = 1.534 http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M2V
=
P (US Price level) = 1 (rounded)
x
Y (US GDP) = 17.5 trillion http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GDP
From the FRB's very own lying mouth: Velocity is a ratio of nominal GDP to a measure of the money supply (M1 or M2). It can be thought of as the rate of turnover in the money supply--that is, the number of times one dollar is used to purchase final goods and services included in GDP.
NO. The first sentence is correct and true, but when they translate to CNBS sheeple speak in the following sentence, they lie. The number of times one dollar is used to purchase final goods and services included in GDP is UNRELATED to the rate of turnover in the money supply.
For proof see embedded links on right side of page (and total them on annual basis across clearing platforms): http://www.federalreserve.gov/paymentsystems/default.htm
The US Federal Reserve cleared over 1 QUADRILLION USD of transaction in 2013. If V represented TURNOVER, then V would be over 87 not below 2. (And the Federal Reserve doesn't even clear and settle all economic transactions in the US, so a more accurate calculation of velocity would be even higher).
So substitute 87 in place of 1.534 and you get
991,800,000,000,000,000
Hey, looks like we're Japan.
That's getting awfully close to ONE QUINTILLION DOLLARS!... In the perverted mind of bankster that doesn't care about the real economy, 750 trillion dollars in derivatives exposure doesn't seem like such a large a number anymore.
Happy Thanksgiving in Germany!
Russia can back the rouble with gold.
------> You are backed by Gold
------> You are not backed by Gold
Forget Russia.
NO way zimmies, we do ponzi so much better.
Our Felix bag of tricks is bigger than their whole country.
AMERICA FUCK YEAH!
My legacy will be an America brought down to the rest of the world
-Baraq America Hater Øbama
I'm not sure that's completely true. Ben Franklin addressed the issue.
I perceive the threat is from privately own central banks and their demonic ability to charge interest on the debt they create. It's been a plage on the US since 1812 and other countries since about that time.
FWIW, the Russian Empire's refusal to accept Rothcild's central bnk system was the ctive motivation for it's eventual demise in 1917. Nothing personal with these vampires, it's just business.
Andrew Jackson destroyed the Second Bank of America during his term.
The US was free of central bankers until that worthless toad Wilson signed the Federal Reserve act.
Exactly, much worse.
Sooooooon...........
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IGYaFMFU63U
Kamikaze economy pilots in Japan, and an economic holocaust in Europe.
Where did this madness come from: Harvard, Princeton, or Mars?
'Where did this madness come from: Harvard, Princeton, or Mars?'
Not much difference,it's all in the family.
Look up who runs al the Ivy Leage shools (which were once Christian Theological institutions.
On a side note, that Abe pic caused a stir a while back from China and Korea as it's the same numbers from Unit 371, Japan's covert chemical and biological research project during WWII. Planned? Or just a dumbass?
The number on the plane is correct, you are not (Unit 731!)
the problem is ALL the Japanes JGB are held by the Japanese. they are NOT going to sell they would rather commit suicide, hence the last 30 years, now the US is a differnet matter
If inflation gets high enough, they'll have to sell them to survive.
PROLLY.
Meanwhile, things have improved markedly over in Ferguson
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4vMraze682g
The difference between Mexico and the US:
Mexican .gov kill children, and Mexicans burn only government buildings down and the mayors residence.
US .gov oppresses Americans, they burn their own property and kill each other.
9 billion people's fate in the hands of 8 global madman leaders.....
I am good with that
The title and content is misleading. Beware of nominal gains. It may be wise to reember the words of Kyle Bass. Zimbabwe has had the best performing market, nominally. However, when it takes trillions to buy a few apples, nominal does not look so good.
<= Japan defaults
<= Japan invades
This country already looks like zimbabwe in most major cities
Look - Japan is taking one for the Anglo-Zio-American Banking Empire team.
They're fucked long term nyway - too old, too wrapped up in manga and gaming relative to squirting DNA into ladies, and lest we forget - Fukushima is a slowly growing tumor in that nation's belly.
...gaming relative to squirting DNA into ladies...
Is that Halo 6 or Donkey Kong 8 The Final Monkey Spanking.
Best to ask on 4chan.
Why 2 junks? Have I stumbled into a nest of "Fukushima is no big deal?"
It's not, until it is...
otherwise - a weak and declining yen is probably inevitable no matter what, in the mid term, but surely its better for the dollar...
The Japanese are doing what we are doing, only doing it harder.
Look to the Yen to see the near future of the Dollar.
2016 ~ 2019 and Japan goes hyper exponential and system self destructs.
The point of no return is when the parabola goes completely vertical, or when the money supply reaches escape velocity of sorts.
Popcorn time?
or
a slow burner?
"Slow burner"
China will, has, slowly been buying up assets and propping things up, and when the time comes, Ta-da!, Japan's new masters.
An American, not US subject.
The Chinese are buying shit because they desperately need to unload their US Dollars.
This is about survival, not dominance.
Expect other to follow suit, once they get a clue. The US Dollar will end its reign as the world trade currency, and all that paper the fed created will fly home to the US, as it will not be able to buy anything in any other country.
Or Venezuela... When you guys are out for popcorn, would you mind picking up a few pallets of toilet paper for me.
The rolls make good padding for my bunker, and they're great to barter with.
You know you are going to need it.
I heard it on a Frank Zappa song.
Actually, the two best barter items in Yugoslavia during its disintegration, were cheap liquor, and, beieve it or not, cheap-assed Bic lighters.
You need something to light the fire used to cook Fido, and something to take your mind off of eating Fido.
The Japanese better start learning Chinese, especially the phrases, "I'm sorry," and "How may I serve you?"
An American, not US subject.
What do you call a Japanese man who immigrates to China? Early.
The scary thing is that Japan is the most advanced place on the globe.
Those pictures of Abe & Kuroda are priceless. :-D
THERE FUKASHIMAED
Japan = Zimbabwe
Next eventually
USA = Zimbabwe.
Printing mad-max style with both.
Zimbabwe stock market went ballistic. So are US stocks.
I've seen videos of Zimbabweans scouring the landscape for gold nuggets/flakes to use to buy a loaf of bread. They figured out what real money is.
We are grateful to the Washington Post, The New York Times, Time Magazine and other great publications whose directors have attended our meetings and respected their promises of discretion for almost 40 years. It would have been impossible for us to develop our plan for the world if we had been subjected to the lights of publicity during those years. But the world is more sophisticated and prepared to march towards a world government. The supranational sovereignty of an intellectual elite and world bankers is surely preferable to the national auto-determination practiced in past centuries.” - David Rockefeller, Bilderberg, 1991 (emphasis added)
Do not worry, Japan will export radiation, earthquakes, and volcanic ash.
When I think that Japan is reduced to four stones surrounded saltwater depending on the outside to produce up to feeding your older population with few young political-technological-subservient zombies, I see no future.
: - /
lever your 401k ..USDJPY ramp till inifittitiyinity!!
sorry Shinzo, you're no Hanni Hanjour
Crack, crack,...... crack up boom.
Nope.
Their National Debt is held mostly by their Citizens, who have high savings rates to begin with.
They just need a set of elections that get them off the USD-Centric Schemes. Selling Bonds to finance the USD Buying Spree doesn't cut it for the long run.
Go long on wheelbarrow manufactures and aftermarket service sales.
Kamikaze Abe!
It is clear that the prospects for Japan are lousy. The writing is on the wall. Japan is facing a wall of debt that can only be addressed by printing more money and debasing their currency. This means paying off their debt with worthless yen where possible and in many cases defaulting on promises made. Japan's public debt, which stands at around 230% of its GDP and is the highest in the industrialized world.
The moment the Japaneses stock market fails to rise enough to offset inflation and realizes even a weaker yen will not help we will see a tsunami of money fleeing Japan. This will constitute the end of the line for those left holding both JGBs and the yen. This has been a long time coming and I contend the cross-border flow of money leaving Japan is why some stock markets have remained so resilient . When Japan crumbles it will be felt across the world. More on this subject in the article below.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/05/japan-sliding-towards-abyss.html