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"It's All Good, Right?"
After GDP 'beat' yesterday in all its statistical instability, today was a disastrous data daya for the Fed's "everything is awesome" meme...
- Mortgage Applications -4.3%
- Durable Goods Ex-Transports MISS -0.9% vs +0.5% Exp
- Initial Jobless Claims MISS 313k vs 288k Exp
- Personal Income MISS +0.2% vs +0.4% Exp
- Personal Spending MISS +0.2% vs +0.3% Exp
- Chicago PMI MISS 60.8 vs 63.0 Exp
- UMich Confidence MISS 88.8 vs 90.0 Exp
- Pending Home Sale MISS -1.1% vs +0.5% Exp
- New Home Sales MISS +0.7% vs +0.8% Exp
As The Burning Platform's Jim Quinn explains,
it really isn’t hard to connect the dots and see the real economy in the real world, outside Wall Street, is a disaster and getting worse by the hour. Below are a bunch of dots that have been issued in the last 24 hours. Here are the facts...
Real disposable income has risen at a 1.8% annual rate over the last four months. Meanwhile, real consumer spending has increased at a 2.4% annual rate over the last four months. I thought all those jobs Obama talks about should result in wages. Why is disposable personal income so pitiful if the unemployment rate is really 5.9%? And of course, these figures are based upon a fake inflation rate of less than 2%. We all know it is 5% or higher.

If things are going so well, why are unemployment claims surging to the highest level in 3 months? Shouldn’t the wonderful holiday season be resulting in massive retail hiring to service all the well off citizens buying more shit they don’t need, with money they don’t have? Consumer debt outstanding will surely hit a new high in December.

Maybe the lack of disposable income is because the number of people receiving free shit for not working is now at a 14 year low. As we know, government transfers of our money to people not working counts as personal income in the warped minds of government bureaucrats. It looks like the free rides are getting shorter.

With the stock market hitting new highs every day, the millionaire pundits on the corporate mainstream media are ecstatic as the wealth of billionaires and bankers skyrockets. If it is good for Wall Street it must be good for Main Street. Right? Not according to Gallup. It seems the Americans living in the real world ain’t so ecstatic. They plan to barely spend more on Christmas than last year, and 6% LESS than they spent in 2011 and 2012. How about 17% less than they spent in 2007? How about 16% less than they spent in 1999? Does this jive with an economic recovery and a stock market at all-time highs?

Back in the real world of businesses, it seems things aren’t so good. Zero Hedge pithily describes the situation:
The Durable Goods ex-transports number dropped by a whopping -0.9%, far below the 0.5% increase expected, and the biggest drop since the December -1.8% tumble which was blamed on the Polar Vortex. It is unclear what the October tumble will be blamed on: the Ebola scare? The Bullard Bottom?

If the high level numbers weren’t enough proof, how about an iconic American manufacturer? Their sales and profits are falling. They expect sales for the current quarter to PLUNGE by 21%. That only happens in recessions. I thought the agricultural economy was booming. Maybe not.
Deere’s stock slips after downbeat outlook for equipment sales
By Tomi Kilgore
Published: Nov 26, 2014 7:18 a.m. ET
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Deere & Co.’s stock DE, +0.31% fell 3.4% in premarket trade Wednesday, after the farm equipment maker beat fiscal fourth-quarter profit and sales forecasts, but provided a downbeat outlook for equipment sales. For the quarter ended Oct. 31, the company reported earnings of $649.2 million, or $1.83 a share, down from $806.8 million, or $2.11 a share, in the year-earlier period, but above the FactSet consensus analyst estimate of $1.57. Revenue fell 5% to $8.97 billion, as equipment sales fell 7%, but topped analyst forecasts of $7.73 billion. For the current quarter, Deere expects equipment sales to fall 21%, on expectations of a continued pullback in the agricultural sector. “The slowdown has been most pronounced in the sale of large farm machinery, including many of our most profitable models.” The stock has lost 3.9% so far this year through Tuesday, compared with a 12% gain in the S&P 500.
The government laughingly told the sheep that GDP in the 3rd quarter had soared. A critical thinking person might wonder how that could be. We know from the data presented above that the consumer has not been spending, because they don’t have anything to spend. As detailed below, corporate profits crashed in the 3rd quarter. We’ve got corporate profits growing at 2.1% when the PE ratio of the S&P 500 is 20. Based on every valuation method ever used, the stock market is now overvalued by at least 50%.
Growth in corporate profits slows sharply in third quarter
By Jeffry Bartash
Published: Nov 25, 2014 8:31 a.m. ET
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) – Growth in adjusted corporate profits slowed sharply in the third quarter, new government figures show. Adjusted pretax profits increased by $43.8 billion, or a 2.1% annual rate. That’s down from $164.1 billion, or an 8.4% increase, in the second quarter, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. Profit figures are adjusted for depreciation and the value of inventories.
So despite these factual data points, the MSM and Wall Street will party on with the belief that Grandma Yellen and the rest of the corrupt central bankers around the globe will devalue the world to prosperity. Or at least provide prosperity to the .1% that control them.
* * *
Then there's this...
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Biding my time for Lehman v 2.0
Krugman must be getting a hardon what with the data all pointing to the need for Bigger and More Federal Spending and Monetary Stimulus.
His next column will no doubt reiterate that he's always believed we're in a depression, albeit just starting to come out so while it's springing up butter and KY, if we don't do MOAR then we''ll fail, bringing the Entire Civilized World Back Into the Shadows of Medieval Masturbation, Global Warming, a Lack of Halal TV Dinners and Plagues of Tea Party Politicians Stopping the Madness only to Replace it With "The Alternative". Which with the leadership of Hisboiking, will declare His Program Blessed by God as Enraptured (get the pun) in Scripture which is particularly disingenuous when espoused by statists.
Booyah.
Buy the fucking whatever.
Hisboiking?
+ a million...
No complains here ... never better
Swimmingly, just swimmingly....
QE 4 EVA
Marooned in a Blizzard of Lies -- Dave Frishberg
Always love your posts
with stocks 33% higher than 2007 and leverage employeed 10% greater, i think LEH was just a warm for the real event.
I don't think it would have been a "warm up", if it was left to do what free markets do, when they collapse from a decade of utter bullshit leverage, however the "response" from our fearless politician parasites, has definitely made it look like it will be NOW!
But what I'm still a little stunned by is, do you think this joke ass president looks at these charts and thinks, huh, we might have a problem here??
After years of reprogramming my brain to think like a libertarian, I've finally come to the harsh reality, that no he doesn't think a god damn thing about it, because he really is a fucking socialist lunatic, in the model of all the socialist lunatics that have come before him!!! He think those charts are just a part of capitalism and that's what He's destroying, in order to bring about the socialist, equal society, he delusionally believes in!!
It's just fucking unreal he was elected President!!!!
"Don't blame me, I voted for Kodos!"
When you kids ask why there's no good Christmas again this year, tell 'em the progressive liberal democrats hate Christmas, just like they hate America!
Only two more years??
to my count at least 6...... Hillaries coat tails should give them the house and senate back..... That might be the final euthanasia if we make it that far, which I personally doubt.
Talk about me babe, if you must
Throw on the dirt, pile on the dust
I'd do the same thing if I could
You know what they say, they say it's all good
All good
It's all good
Big politician telling lies
Restaurant kitchen, all full of flies
Don't make a bit of difference, don't see why it should
But it's all right, 'cause it's all good
It's all good
It's all good
Wives are leavin' their husbands, they beginning to roam
They leave the party and they never get home
I wouldn't change it, even if I could
You know what they say man, it's all good
It's all good
All good
Brick by brick, they tear you down
A teacup of water is enough to drown
You ought to know, if they could they would
Whatever going down, it's all good
All good
Say it's all good
People in the country, people on the land
Some of them so sick, they can hardly stand
Everybody would move away, if they could
It's hard to believe but it's all good
Yeah
The widow's cry, the orphan's plea
Everywhere you look, more misery
Come along with me, babe, I wish you would
You know what I'm sayin', it's all good
All good
I said it's all good
All good
Cold-blooded killer, stalking the town
Cop cars blinking, something bad going down
Buildings are crumbling in the neighborhood
But there's nothing to worry about, 'cause it's all good
It's all good
They say it's all good
I'll pluck off your beard and blow it in your face
Read more: http://www.bobdylan.com/us/songs/its-all-good#ixzz3KCJvsrBfThis time tomorrow I'll be rolling in your place
I wouldn't change a thing even if I could
You know what they say, they say it's all good
It's all good
Has Jamie's daughter seen these charts?
She has thats why she's richer than you.
Must be increasing productivity!!!
Bullish!
Merry Christmiss!
Bah Humbug.
Jesus is the Reason for the Season.
So, no spending required.
Just Family Time and Gratefulness!
The rally will continue until moral improves (....or the economy, whichever comes first).
Q: Roughly how much money do you think you personally will spend on xmas this year?
A Zero birtchez.
How about 16% less than they spent in 1999?
If you adjust for inflation, spending is down more than 50% from 1999. Long live the mythical recovery - along with the equally mythical American Dream.
But the Ferguson riots! But the Ferguson riots! But the Ferguson riots! But the Ferguson riots! But the Ferguson riots! But the Ferguson riots! But the Ferguson riots! But the Ferguson riots! But the Ferguson riots! But the Ferguson riots! But the Ferguson riots! But the Ferguson riots!
(Retailer)
It was a wild Black Friday! Nothing but Blacks and they did not pay for anything! Hey! Can you help me with this broken glass?
They're calling it Brown Monday in Ferguson. Much better deals than Black Friday.
When is *White* day.
Compare that to Wall Street looting with full support of your US Government.
meet Eugenia, Educated, Refined, Cultivated
Hands off! I seen her first! She's definitely the top of all pop ups!...that Nataliya scares me, even in that black lace top she looks mean as piss! I dont care if she is a 'sage' or not! Eugenia, on the other hand, I feel a strong spiritual connection with..
Is that a hole where your kidney was, or are you happy to see me?
Indeed, her name says it all - "Eugenia" -> "good genes" -> "create exceptional offspring".
I'm broke, but I just got an offer for a $7,500 loan at 10%!!!
I took it, so that I can delay defaulting on all my other loans for another month.
My plan is to hope this economy gets better in the next 30 days, oh, and also Publisher's Clearing House comes knockin'
Come on Guys you know the rules, No Bad Economic News till after the Holidays. absolutely nothing to keep People from Shopping their hearts out... All I want for Christmas is A Big Black Swan, A Big Black Swan.. Ok I'll take a 10 OZ gold bar instead
This one will be epic
'This one will be Ethnic'...FIFY
furguson is A disaster of ethnic proportions along with mexicans pouring across our border in groves...
Obama: Americans Have No Right To Favor Americans https://screen.yahoo.com/obama-americans-no-favor-americans-103133596.html
Ominous.
With the "hate americans" theme by the president resonating so well, I won't be doing any mall shopping and won't be sending packages 'cause malling and going to Fed Ex or post office could be dangerous.
"The thing I hate most about being pResident is America."
"it really isn’t hard to connect the dots and see the real economy in the real world, outside Wall Street, is a disaster and getting worse by the hour"
concur
sticking with my call that US enters a recession no later than Q1 2015
Does that mean we get ot of the depression we have been in since 2000?
Thats a Redepression Doc.
....or post depression recession.
1932 or 1937, say no more.
I was rereading my grandfathers diarys from the 1930's last night.
Who says history doesn't repeat ?
"Not according to Gallup. It seems the Americans living in the real world ain’t so ecstatic. They plan to barely spend more on Christmas than last year,"
NRF forecasts +4.1% over 2013 holiday
As the scams continue, it is becoming moar difficult to hide the reality, not just from 'The People' but within the government's own stats. The MSM can only cover for so long, until they become Baghdad Bob, a point they are very very close to reaching.
Tuned-in observers are also seeing the gold repatriation by different governments.
Get ready for a Black Swan....
*****
The LC clan has NO plans for Xmas spending. No gifts, just support for various family members and gifts of personal property from one person to another. I suppose it is one way to starve the beast...I have spent 120$ on an inflatable manger scene, just to piss off the PC crowd. So, even my Prince of Peace exhibit becomes a Protest (sigh).
what black swan? ISIS / Ebola defeated. Lets just say if Israel hits Iran, and if you wore a tinfoil had, do you think that perhaps thats why oil has been let down, so that 20% bump is to 90 a barrel? which wouldnt be a shock
No I dont see a black swan, I see 5 degrees downbubble at some point, and then a cliff at some point when even mark to unicorn doesnt work at the banks. I can go for a LONNG time without a reset
At least Baghdad Bob had some comedic value!
Illusion
Searching for a destiny that's mine
There's another place another time
Touching many hearts along the way, yeah
Hoping that I'll never have to say
It's just an illusion, illusion, illusion
Follow your emotions anywhere
Is it really magic in the air?
Never let your feelings get you down
Open up your eyes and look around
It's just an illusion, illusion, illusion
Could it be that it's just an illusion
Putting me back in all this confusion?
Could it be that it's just an illusion now?
Could it be that it's just an illusion
Putting me back in all this confusion?
Could it be that it's just an illusion now?
Could it be a picture in my mind?
Never sure exactly what I'll find
Only in my dreams I turn you on
Here for just a moment then you're gone
It's just an illusion, illusion, illusion
Could it be that it's just an illusion
Putting me back in all this confusion?
Could it be that it's just an illusion now?
Could it be that it's just an illusion
Putting me back in all this confusion?
Could it be that it's just an illusion now?
you can buy a 50' 1080p TV fo $200 tomorrow.. comparable set in 2007 (720p plasma) would be over $1500
only due to the Affordable TV Act...AKA Free Market
Just think, Kim's butt, high resolution and on a big screen.... excuse me, gotta barf now....
Where can I get these Khazars to be done?
There's a cavern on Highway 61.
Since when is a "miss", an economic data point? The numbers are the numbers.
When does Putin do the kneecapping - straight on or while we stumble...?
The only question really is, will he use the Hammer drill ?
Only for dental work...
Is it safe?
Couple all of that info with the strong $ destroying exports and well...You get the picture.
It's a Gas gas gas.
Why, of course, it's all good, Tyler. It's especially good for those of us who look on the "financial markets" with undisguised and unapologetic schadenfreude.
I forgot to mention our beloved national "retailers." Know how much I'm going to spend on Christmas this year? Zero. If these fidouchebags can't even give their employees the day off for Thanksgiving, they ain't gettin' one thin dime from me!
It's a good thing stocks were at a new all-time record high again yesterday, or we might have thought the economy was in the tank!
Possible reasons for the recent increase in official GDP figures:
Number 10. Kim Kardashian reveals monster butt growth.
Number 9. New auto sales surge on sub-prime loans.
Number 8. New hires in PR arm of FedGov.
Number 7. Export surge to Ukrainian military.
Number 6. Increased military spending on retirement packages for fired Generals.
Number 5. Quant bonuses for latest algorhythm trading successes.
Number 4. CEO bonuses for raising stock prices through buy-backs.
Number 3. Hookers
Number 2. Blow
Number 1. Self-services as imputed income: Brushing teeth, picking nose, whacking off.
I'm a slave but less of a slave than Obama. We're doing "festivus" this year so no gift giving as such. More like a gift of time or attention. Oh, we are in the crash, the facade is world class.
The stock market continues to remain at historic highs, but please tell me what is so good? What is so much better? As I see it the weight of carrying a large number of unemployed and people who have dropped out of the work force is wearing society down through attrition.
The article below points out some of the glaring flaws in the argument that blue sky lies ahead as the stock market seems to indicate. As I look at a landscape of empty and under-leased buildings that once housed thriving businesses that provided Americans with good paying jobs I'm forced to ask, How are things getting better?
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/10/tell-me-again-how-things-are-getting.html
I'm doing the same thing this year as last...everyone is getting a handmade item. This year it is Bakelite, I just got several old Mah Jong racks in gorgeous colors, and I'm really enjoying the whole crafting process...I'm feeling pretty festive this year, so I'm incorporating some of my gold jewelry stash into the pieces I'm making.
Whatever I have left over after 'gifting', I'll sell on Ebay.
Sorry Wall Street...you guys aren't getting anything out of me again this year. Unless you have some old Mah Jong sets you'd care to sell me cheap...